NFL Waiver Wire: Week 16 Deep Dive

For most of us, Week 16 signifies the fantasy championship. Unless you're in a league that still runs through Week 17, that means it's time to blow all your remaining FAAB, deeply consider sniping our opponents on waivers, and cut loose any player who won't be of immediate help without guilt. Even getting to this point is worth a self-congratulatory pat on the back. But now that we're here, we can't entertain any possibility except winning the whole shebang. 

This Thursday article is our second waiver wire piece of the week, intended to give a broad overview of players worth fantasy consideration. Every Monday, Kevin Payne's first edition of the Waiver Wire series gives a rundown the top names.

As usual, I'll answer any questions relating to fantasy down below, or @ivilloth on Twitter. Full disclosure, I'll be operating at less than 100% while recovering from a minor procedure this week, so responses may be less prompt than normal. 

The list below includes players rostered in no more than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues and is listed in order of preference based on half-point per reception scoring and a 12-team league. Depending on your league's scoring and roster settings, certain players might warrant higher consideration than what is listed. Each player's listed roster percentage is based on Tuesday's Yahoo statistics, to give a general sense of availability for a given week.

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts at Cowboys (40 percent) - If you're lucky enough to still have Hurts on your waiver wire while needy at QB, congrats! You've likely stumbled into a league-winner. Even if you're set at the position, it's reasonable to make a move for Hurts if only to keep him away from your opponent. Even though he won't be tasked with matching Kyler Murray - which definitely inflated his production last week - he should be able to put up a monster game against a Cowboy's defense allowing over 30 points per game. 

Baker Mayfield at Jets (47 percent) - Yes, the Jets shut down the Rams and Sean McVay's lauded scheme last week. I'll still trust the sample size of the previous 13 games, where the Jets looked convincing as the league's worst team. And these aren't the same ol' Browns that should have you worried about a late-season implosion. Mayfield has floated around 300 yards in each of his last three games with a 10:1 TD:INT ratio in his last four contests. He's also notched multiple scores in each of those four games.

Tua Tagovailoa at Raiders (21 percent) - Tagovailoa overcame a banged-up receiving corps in a win over the Patriots last weekend and salvaged his fantasy day with two scores. The rookie first-round pick has counted at least 18 fantasy points in five of his last six starts, including a 25-point and a 32-point fantasy performance during that span. As long as Tua gets at least one of DeVante Parker (hamstring) or Mike Gesicki (shoulder) back on the field, he should be a fine option against the Raiders' secondary.

Mitchell Trubisky at Jaguars (12 percent) - Trubisky didn't have the "boom" game some of us were hoping for against the Vikings last weekend, but he's now established a pattern. Since taking over the starting gig Week 12, Trubisky has alternated 3-TD and 1-TD performances and that puts him on track to have a big day against the Jags. If you prefer more grounded analysis, the Jaguars have allowed multiple TD passes in eight straight, and this team simply doesn't have a CB option capable of stopping Allen Robinson. 

Marcus Mariota vs. Dolphins (1 percent) - In multi-QB leagues, Mariota may be the only available option on this list. The former Titan looked electric in his first action as a Raider, largely due to his willingness to scramble and put his athleticism to good use. The Dolphins' secondary pose a tough challenge, but Mariota may be able to do enough with his legs against a pretty exploitable front five to put up fair numbers if Derek Carr (groin) sits out. 

RUNNING BACK

Darrell Henderson at Seahawks (41 percent) - It's only appropriate to those who held on to Cam Akers would get burned by an ill-timed injury in the fantasy playoffs, I guess. Henderson and Malcolm Brown (17 percent) should once again resume splitting this backfield. And while Henderson is my preferred option, it's somewhat difficult to trust the Rams after such a disastrous showing last week. 

Le'Veon Bell vs. Falcons (49 percent) - It looks like Clyde Edwards-Helaire has picked up a dreaded high-ankle sprain, which should skyrocket Bell into the lead role for the Chiefs. The veteran RB was forced out on two occasions against Saints, but it seems like his health is of no concern. Even if Bell hasn't looked explosive in multiple years, a bellcow role for the best offense in football should bring him fantasy success. Darrel Williams (3 percent) and Darwin Thompson (0 percent) - to a lesser extent - are also worth consideration. 

Myles Gaskin at Raiders (55 percent) - Gaskin has already returned from the COVID-19 list, so I'd expect him to return to a bellcow role. The No. 1 role in Miami's backfield is an essential guarantee of 15-20-plus touches, and I'd expect the Dolphins to score fairly easily against this Raiders' defense. Bump Gaskin up higher if DeVante Parker (hamstring) and Mike Gesicki (shoulder) don't seem to be trending in the right direction by midweek. Gaskin's rostered percentage technically means he doesn't qualify for our list, but I'm making an exception for championship week. In leagues without IR spots, his availability is probably substantially higher. 

Tony Pollard vs. Eagles (42 percent) - Pollard offers the highest upside of any option on the wire this week, except for the fact it's looking like Ezekiel Elliott (calf) will be back. That'll no doubt force many a fantasy manager to make tough risk-reward bidding decisions. Coming off a high-end RB1 performance last weekend and with a divisional matchup that carries actual playoff ramifications, Pollard should be bound for an enormous workload if Zeke can't go. 

Benny Snell vs. Colts (29 percent) - The health of James Conner (quadriceps) is a wild card for Week 16, but coach Mike Tomlin has hinted Snell's recent strong performances could have earned him a larger offensive role either way. The second-year pro has slightly refined his skillset down the stretch and Conner has looked rough, but this situation is too murky to gamble on with the ship on the line unless Conner is ruled out.  

Ito Smith at Chiefs (10 percent) - Smith has officially usurped Todd Gurley as Atlanta's lead back. Problem is, that role hasn't returned tangible fantasy value in a long time. Despite handling 25 carries over the last three weeks, Smith hasn't managed to score or reach 50 rushing yards in a single game while the Chiefs' defense presents tough sledding.

Tevin Coleman at Cardinals (17 percent) - The 49ers' rotating door of healthy backs this season has been truly astounding. Last week Raheem Mostert (ankle, IR) and Jeff Wilson (ankle) both began the game as lead options, but - as seemed forewritten - each were forced out of action due to injury. Neither Coleman nor Jerick McKinnon have been even remotely effective as of late, but they're the only backfield options Kyle Shanahan currently has as a road matchup with the Cardinals approaches. 

Salvon Ahmed at Raiders (34 percent) - Gaskin is back in action, but Ahmed looked solid enough last weekend to earn a share of the carries. The UDFA out of Washington caught my eye way back in the offseason when he was with the 49ers and he's impressed in both chances to lead the Dolphins' backfield this season with 21-85-1 in Week 10 and 23-122-1 in Week 15 - although it's worth noting the Dolphins have used Gaskin in an every-down role whenever possible this season. 

Jerick McKinnon at Cardinals (37 percent) - As with Tevin Coleman, McKinnon's intrigue comes as a result of injuries in front of him. Of course, with only two offensive touches in the 49ers' last three games, it seems like the chances of McKinnon putting up a goose egg are about even with his odds of handling a probable role.  

Gus Edwards vs. Giants (43 percent) - Edwards has scored or eclipsed 100 rushing yards in three of the Ravens' last four games. Though only likely to get 7-10 carries while J.K. Dobbins leads Baltimore's backfield, Edwards' efficiency and nose for the end zone makes him a fine emergency Flex play. And if the Ravens get up ahead early, he could be used to close the game out. 

Peyton Barber vs. Panthers (6 percent) - Barber salvaged his fantasy day with a TD versus the Seahawks, but he only managed five yards on four carries. J.D. McKissic is the clear favorite to lead this backfield if Antonio Gibson (toe) misses more time. But in extremely deep formats like dynasty leagues, Barber at least carries some Flex potential based on the chance he'll fall into the end zone.  

Frank Gore vs. Browns (24 percent) - Gore scored against the Rams while handling 24 carries for 59 yards, a statline that basically represents his best-case scenario. It's also notable that Ty Johnson (15 percent) looked solid in a change-of-pace role, catching all six of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. 

Carlos Hyde vs. Rams (24 percent) - This is a perfect example of not chasing the box score. Sure, Hyde totaled 55 yards and a touchdown last week, but he did it on just two carries. Chris Carson is the only option in Seattle's backfield who can be played with any amount of confidence versus the Rams. With only one week left to play, Hyde's value as a handcuff is essentially a non-factor.

WIDE RECEIVER

Russell Gage at Chiefs (27 percent) - Gage has been a fantastic play with Julio Jones (hamstring) out the last few weeks, hovering around nine targets over the last five games - with around 15 fantasy points in the last three. The Chiefs project as one of his tougher matchups, but he should be an ideal PPR option off the wire if Julio Jones (hamstring) is out again. 

Keke Coutee vs. Bengals (40 percent) - Coutee has scored in two of the Texans' last three games and racked up a whopping 141 yards back in Week 13. He's firmly on the Flex and WR3 radar this week and a matchup against Cincinnati's flawed secondary should position him well to once again take advantage of Houston's banged-up receiving corps. 

Allen Lazard vs. Titans (31 percent) - Lazard is coming off his best game since returning from abdomen surgery with 5-56-0 against the Panthers. The Titans should still actually be able to score on Green Bay. And given Lazard will be facing a secondary that hasn't looked formidable all season, he's a strong option to connect with Aaron Rodgers plenty of times this week.

Nelson Agholor vs. Dolphins (45 percent) - Agholor didn't do too much with Marcus Mariota in the lineup last week by only catching five passes for 49 yards. In that game, he also suffered an apparent finger dislocation, took a huge hit to the ribs, and had one or two egregious interferences against him go overlooked. With six or more targets in five straight games, Agholor is a fair option even against Miami's secondary. 

Jakobi Meyers vs. Bills (30 percent) - Meyers enjoyed his second 100-yard game of the year against the Dolphins in Week 15, but he'd previously been pretty quiet. During Weeks 10-14, he failed to score or surpass 50 receiving yards. However, much of that can be blamed on New England's deficient passing attack. Jerry Donabedian's Hidden Stat Line showcases how efficient Meyers has remained by ranking ninth among qualified WRs with 2.32 yards per route run. 

A.J. Green at Texans (36 percent) - Green hasn't been reliable since Joe Burrow went down with a torn ACL and he was pretty inconsistent before then. Still, the veteran wideout has put together a consecutive pair of relatively productive games with 102 yards and a score over the last two weeks. Green's in play as an emergency option against Houston's exploitable secondary, especially with Tyler Boyd (concussion) possibly out. 

Lynn Bowden at Raiders (24 percent) - Bowden is truly developing as a WR at the NFL level, making it puzzling to look back on the Raiders' decision to focus on him at RB back in the offseason. If DeVante Parker (hamstring) returns, there's no guarantee Bowden will garner more than a handful of targets, but he could be Tua Tagovailoa's top option once again if the Dolphins' receiving corps gets depleted again.  

Tim Patrick at Chargers (29 percent) - Patrick produced one of his worst games of the year when Denver's offense imploded against the Bills last week, but he still has 10 or more fantasy points in three of his last five appearances. Against a secondary that's only allowed 221 passing yards per game, Patrick's floor is probably too low for real fantasy consideration. 

Rashard Higgins at Jets (26 percent) - Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been on fire of late and Higgins' play has been a notable part of that. He's amassed at least 65 yards in four of the last five games, while the Jets rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs.

Jalen Reagor at Cowboys (21 percent) - Reagor has now registered two straight games with at least 40 receiving yards and drew a career-high eight targets from Jalen Hurts last week. The Jalen-to-Jalen connection won't have a better chance to emerge than against a Cowboys' secondary that's allowed 31 passing touchdowns on the year, although Reagor's ankle injury will need to be closely monitored. 

Laviska Shenault vs. Bears (16 percent) - Shenault has totaled 17 targets over the past two weeks, but Jacksonville's inefficient offense hasn't allowed him to do much with those opportunities. It'll be interesting if James Robinson (ankle) ends up inactive or limited, as the Jaguars' lack of RB depth could lead to Shenault seeing increased snaps out of the backfield if the former can't go. Shenault logged a carry in 10 of 12 appearances, with five rushes back in Week 2. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Titans (22 percent) - MVS has been shut out in three of the Packers' last seven games, but has four combined TDs and at least 50 yards in each of the other four contests. He's a true boom-or-bust option, but could see plenty of opportunities if the Titans' offense can force Green Bay to keep pace in a high-scoring game. With such a drastic floor, MVS is only worth consideration if you're a huge underdog in need of a prayer. 

TIGHT END

Jordan Reed at Cardinals (20 percent) - Reed is only averaging 21 yards over his last three games, but he's scored twice over that stretch and that's about as much as one can hope for from a streaming tight end. The Cardinals aren't an incredible matchup nor is it encouraging that Reed will be working with either C.J. Beathard or Josh Rosen under center, but the veteran stands to serve as one of the top three options in San Francisco's passing attack. 

Austin Hooper at Jets (48 percent) - Hooper finally showed signs of life against the Giants last Sunday by going 5-41-1. He appears back to full health now that it's been over a month since his appendectomy and having resumed as Cleveland's top tight end. The Jets have also given up 1.5 touchdowns and over 100 yards per game to tight ends since the beginning of December.  

Irv Smith at Saints (16 percent) - Smith had a bad TD drop last week, imploding what should've been a solid fantasy performance. It looks like Kyle Rudolph (foot) is trending toward a third straight absence, projecting Smith to be a solid play at tight end. Minnesota's scheme leads to plenty of red zone targets at the TE position, and it's unlikely Tyler Conklin will score in a second straight week. 

Dalton Schultz vs. Eagles (19 percent) - Schultz has only seen 15 targets over the last four games, but he did manage to find the end zone last weekend. The Eagles have given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season, and this is a secondary too vulnerable to cover all of the Cowboys' weapons well even with Darius Slay (concussion) back in the lineup.