NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 5

Indianapolis (PK) at Houston - Thursday, 8:25 pm EDT

Comments:Andrew Luck's shoulder injury has helped take attention away from the Colts' rough start to the season, but the offense was lagging even before Luck got hurt and the defense has been even worse than expected. He's supposed to suit up Thursday after sitting out last week's win over the Jaguars, but the team wasn't even scoring 20 points a game through the first three weeks. Unless the shoulder has been an issue longer than they've been letting on, it's hard to understand why they've had trouble scoring points, especially given Donte Moncrief's emergence. By the numbers, the Texans have been relatively stingy against the pass so far, but the only really dangerous quarterback they've faced is Matt Ryan, who didn't have to do much to tear them apart. A healthy Luck should be able to do some damage, but is that the Luck they'll see on Thursday? ... Arian Foster didn't exactly set the world on fire in his first game of the season, but considering he was still ahead of his original timetable for recovering from his groin surgery, he can be given a little leeway. He'll have a bigger workload this week, the Colts' defense gives up nearly 120 rushing yards a game, and the quarterback situation in Houston is a bit of a mess. Todd Gurley set a nice benchmark for second game of the season breakouts, but it wouldn't be shocking to see Foster top 146-yard effort from last week. ... Texans coach Bill O'Brien is making the right decision for the future of the team by sticking with Ryan Mallett, but only because the organization has to find out if they need to invest in another QB in the offseason. The early answer appears to be a resounding yes, though. In a league where a 60 percent completion rate ranks you in the bottom 10 in the league, Mallett's 51.8 percent is way beyond unacceptable. Brian Hoyer isn't much better, but once Foster gets up to speed, a game manager might be their best bet at stealing a winnable division.

Predictions:Frank Gore rushes for 70 yards and a score. Luck plays but is again ineffective, throwing for 240 yards and a TD to Moncrief with two INTs. Foster rumbles for 120 yards and two touchdowns, while Mallett hits DeAndre Hopkins for another and keeps his poor throws to a minimum. Texans, 27-17

Chicago (+9.5) at Kansas City - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Bears win! The Bears win! I'm not exactly sure how, mind you, but the W is there in the standings, so I'll have to take the league's word for it. Jay Cutler looked OK in his return from a hamstring injury, but this is still a team with arguably the worst defense in the NFL, a unit that's giving up 31.3 points per game, tied for most in the league. They're not good against the run (4.4 yards per carry against, 26th in the league), awful against the pass (112.1 QB rating against, second highest in the league) and terrible on third downs (letting the offense convert 45.8 percent of them, third highest in the league). They may have been able to keep the overachieving Raiders mostly in check at home, but good luck handling a better unit on the road. ... The defense tied with the Bears as the league's most generous? The Chiefs. Before you rush out to bet your life savings on the over for this game, though, consider that Kansas City has faced the Broncos, Packers and Bengals the last three weeks, and it did hold the Arian Foster-less Texans to 20 points in Week 1. Chicago might not be missing its stud running back, but it also doesn't have any healthy wide receivers for Cutler to throw to, as Alshon Jeffery figures to be limited even if he does suit up. ... The flip side of the Chiefs' poor defensive results due to the quality of their opposition is the Bears solid numbers through four games against tight ends. They've only allowed one tight end touchdown through four games, as well as less than 40 receiving yards per game. They've also only faced one name-brand TE in Jimmy Graham, though, and he had his best game of the season against them, accounting for more than half the TE yardage the Bears have surrendered and that one score. Coming off a couple games in which he took a backseat to Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce will be itching to at least duplicate Graham's performance.

Predictions:Matt Forte gains 100 combined yards and a TD. Cutler struggles, though, throwing for barely 200 yards and getting picked off twice. Jamaal Charles rips off 130 combined yards and two rushing touchdowns, while Alex Smith throws for 240 yards and two TDs to Kelce and Chris Conley. Chiefs, 31-16

Seattle (+3) at Cincinnati - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: What's that? The Seahawks won a Monday night game after a crucial late-game blown decision by the refs? 2012 called, it wants its Fail Mary controversy back. Even giving it credit for the fluky win, though, this Seattle team is a shadow of the one from three years ago that began their rise to the top, especially if Marshawn Lynch misses another game. Rating them as neutral field equals of a 4-0 Bengals, which is what the three-point spread indicates, seems like just as much a relic of 2012. ... Whether it's Lynch or Thomas Rawls in the Seattle backfield, or both, don't expect them to score. Cincinnati is now the only team left in the league not to allow a rushing TD this season, and it's done it against solid competition including Jamaal Charles in Week 4. Andy Dalton and the offense have certainly done their part to encourage the other team to shelve the running game, but the Bengals' defense has had similar success in the past when all its key parts were healthy. They also have yet to allow a TD to a tight end, which is going to leave Russell Wilson with few options when it comes to getting into the end zone. ... The Bengals' backfield have evolved into the kind of timeshare the team likely always envisioned, with Giovani Bernard gaining the real estate (averaging 93 combined yards a game) and Jeremy Hill finishing the job (five TDs in four games, but just 41 rushing yards a game). The duo have also combined for a ridiculous 30 red-zone carries already (Hill's third in the league, Bernard's tied for fourth), a volume that will be basically impossible for them to maintain. Barring an injury to one or the other the arrangement, and the fractured value, likely will continue, but Bernard's floor on a week-to-week basis is a lot more secure.

Predictions: Lynch sits again, and Rawls grinds out 70 yards. Wilson rushes for 50 yards and a TD while throwing for 220 yards and hitting Jermaine Kearse for another score. Bernard is held to 70 combined yards with Hill rushing for 40, but Dalton throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Mohamed Sanu. Bengals, 24-17

Washington (+7.5) at Atlanta - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Washington backfield has devolved into a full-blown committee just in time for an exploitable matchup against a Falcons defense that's allowed 4.4 yards a carry (27th in the league) and seven rushing TDs (most in the NFL). Alfred Morris saw the most carries last week but hasn't gotten his YPC out of the threes since Week 1. Rookie Matt Jones has the most physical talent but appears to be in the doghouse after losing fumbles in consecutive games. And third-year scatback Chris Thompson, who's now emerged as a reliable option, has to be licking his chops after seeing what Lance Dunbar did against Atlanta a couple weeks ago. Chances are pretty good at least one will have a big game Sunday, but figuring out which one is the trick. ... Someone finally figured out how to slow Julio Jones last week, but unfortunately the solution seems to be to fall way behind so Matt Ryan doesn't have a reason to throw to him. That's probably not what the Washington defense has in mind, but given its inability to really slow opposing passing attacks so far (102.1 QB rating against, 26th in the league) it might not have a Plan B. ... I'm going to go way out on a limb and predict that Devonta Freeman will not get three rushing touchdowns for the third consecutive game. Freeman's explosion has certainly solidified his spot at the top of the Atlanta depth chart even when rookie Tevin Coleman gets healthy, though Freeman won't keep averaging 27 touches a game the way he has since Coleman went down. Terron Ward also looked decent in garbage time last week, so it's probably worth giving a nod to the Falcons' offensive line, which wasn't expected to be a strength this season.

Predictions: Jones gets back in a groove, rushing for 90 yards and a touchdown in limited touches, while Thompson also gains 70 combined yards. Kirk Cousins throws for 240 yards and a TD to Jamison Crowder but also two INTs. Freeman picks up 90 combined yards but doesn't score. Ryan has his best game of the season, throwing for 320 yards and four touchdowns, two to Roddy White and one each to Leonard Hankerson and Jones, who tops 100 receiving yards. Falcons, 34-17

Jacksonville (+3) at Tampa Bay - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Cool statistical coincidence of the week: Blake Bortles and Jameis Winston have remarkably similar numbers through the first four games. Winston has a 54.9 percent completion rate, 965 passing yards, six TDs and a 71.2 QB rating, while Bortles has a 54.5 percent completion rate, 996 yards, six TDs and a 78.9 QB rating. There are some glaring differences, of course (Winston's 7.26 YPA is borderline acceptable compared to Bortles' 6.39, but the rookie Buc has thrown seven INTs as opposed to the sophomore Jag's three), but it can't be a surprise that the teams have combined for two wins, given the weak performances from their quarterbacks. Someone's got to notch their second win of the season in this one, though. Probably. ... If there's a deciding factor here, it could come on the ground instead. Tampa Bay's run defense hasn't been bad, giving up 4.0 yards per carry, but teams have been protecting so many leads against it that it's given up more than 130 rushing yards a game through sheer volume. Jacksonville's defense, meanwhile, has allowed a league-low 3.1 yards per carry. In other words, don't count on Doug Martin putting up big numbers. ... Winston's big two receivers, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, have alternated 100-yard games the last two weeks, but the two haven't found a way to both be productive at the same time yet. The volume is there for both to thrive (45 targets between them in those two games), especially considering how often the team will play from behind, but so far Winston has focused more on sticking to what's working rather than making an effort to get both involved. Expect their weekly numbers to remain volatile, even if their overall production ends up being fine at season's end.

Predictions:T.J. Yeldon has another solid day, rushing for 80 yards and his first NFL touchdown. Bortles throws for 280 yards and two TDs, both to Allen Robinson as part of a 120-yard receiving day. Martin runs for only 40 yards, while Charles Sims has 50 combined yards. Winston passes for 230 yards and hits Evans for a score but also throws two INTs. Jaguars, 24-13

New Orleans (+4.5) at Philadelphia - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments:C.J. Spiller's overtime heroics got New Orleans its first win of the year last week, but it could be a while before the Saints win another one. The Saints' defense is atrocious, a fact highlighted by the fourth-quarter, game-tying drive Brandon Weeden of all people hung on them to send that game to OT. Sam Bradford may have had his difficulties so far in Philly, but if he can't put up good numbers against a defense allowing an incredible 9.8 yards per pass attempt, they won't have much to lose by giving Mark Sanchez another look. ... Drew Brees put up pretty Brees-y numbers in that win against the Cowboys, though if you take away the 80-yard TD strike to Spiller that only happened due to blown coverage by a rookie linebacker, they look decidedly less impressive. The Eagles' pass defense has been better than the Saints (who hasn't?), but its poor completion percentage allowed (66.3 percent, 22nd in the league) combined with a low YPA of 6.6 points to a vulnerability to a West Coast-style attack that should be right in the wheelhouse of the aging Brees and his achy shoulder. Brandin Cooks hasn't done much this year despite the preseason hype and a steady stream of targets, but this could be the game he breaks out. ... On the latest episode of "As The Eagles Backfield Turns," DeMarco Murray saw more touches than Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles put together in last week's loss, and outgained the duo 48 to 37 in combined yards. They're all healthy, they're all skilled and none is able to do much behind a battered offensive line as long as they're sharing the load. If you've still got any shares in them, you'll just have to hope one of the others breaks down again.

Predictions:Mark Ingram bangs out 60 yards and a touchdown, while Brees airs it out for 290 yards and touchdowns to Cooks and Willie Snead. No Eagles back does much yardage-wise, though Murray (TD) and Sproles (2-point conversion) both get into the end zone, but Bradford strikes for 330 yards and three touchdowns to Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz and Jordan Matthews, who pulls down 140 yards. Eagles, 32-24

Cleveland (+6.5) at Baltimore - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Leave it to the Browns to stage a nice late drive to tie the game, then commit a penalty to give the opposition kicker a second chance at a game-winning field goal. Josh McCown has put up some nice numbers the last couple weeks, firmly nailing Johnny Football back on the bench, but it's hard to fathom how he's managed to rack up nearly 700 passing yards throwing to Cleveland's rag-tag ground of receiving options. When 30-year-old journeyman tight end Gary Barnidge is one of your top targets, that kind of success doesn't seem sustainable. ... Mike Tomlin's late-game mismanagement allowed the Ravens to steal their first win of the season in Pittsburgh, but the Ravens were probably due for something to go their way, losing each of their first three games by less than one score. Last Thursday's victory also saw Justin Forsett finally get going, and now that he has a head of steam he gets to face a Browns defense giving up 4.8 yards per carry, fourth highest in the league. Tasty. ... He'll need to pile up the yardage, though, as a beat-up Baltimore receiving corps makes Cleveland's look like a glittering array of stars. Steve Smith has microfractures in his back, first-round pick Breshad Perriman won't be making his debut any time soon after getting his knee scoped, and even surprising second-year tight end Crockett Gillmore is on the limp. Even an elite quarterback like Joe Flacco will have trouble putting up McCown-like numbers with this group.

Predictions:Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson split touches again, but the rookie has the better game with 70 combined yards and a score. McCown can't come close to topping 300 yards again, but does hit Taylor Gabriel for a TD. Forsett runs for 120 yards and a touchdown and scores a second through the air, while Flacco also hits Kamar Aiken for a TD. Ravens, 24-20

St. Louis (+9) at Green Bay - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Welcome to the Todd Gurley Era. The rookie absolutely decimated a Cardinals run defense that came into last week's game allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, and like all the best bellcows seemed to get stronger as the game wore on, busting out for a career-long 23-yard run in the third quarter before besting that with a 52-yarder early in the fourth quarter that would have been a 68-yard touchdown if not for a great effort by Tyrann Mathieu to drag him down from behind. Gurley's still looking for his first TD as a pro, but he may not have to wait long against a Packers defense surrendering 4.8 yards per carry, the third-worst unit in the league. It should be noted though that the Packers did prevent both Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles from posting big yardage days on the ground at Lambeau Field this year, though Charles hit them up for three TDs and the low rushing totals were as much due to game flow and low volume as anything the defense did. ... The 49ers actually managed to stifle the Packers' offense last week, but even in a quiet game points-wise Aaron Rodgers was still ridiculously efficient. He's unlikely to finish the season with a 44:0 TD:INT ratio, but would you put it past him? The Rams have pulled off two big upsets already this season, and their pass rush could give Rodgers trouble, but he's expected to get right tackle Bryan Bulaga back, which should help keep him upright, and at home he's unlike to be phased by any amount of pressure. ... Green Bay's receivers continue to be held together by chewing gum and baling wire, though. Randall Cobb's shoulder is being carefully monitored after a mediocre performance in Week 4, James Jones has a tweaked hamstring and Davante Adams remains out with an ankle injury. Ty Montgomery has shown flashes and saw his highest snap and target counts of the season last week, but the rookie likely won't make a big impact as long as the walking wounded above him on the depth chart remain active.

Predictions: Gurley rumbles for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Nick Foles throws for 210 yards and a score to Kenny Britt. James Laurinaitis also scoops up a fumble and returns it for a TD. Eddie Lacy matches his rookie counterpart, posting his first 100-yard game of the season with two scores, while Rodgers gets sacked four times but still throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Jones and Montgomery, leading a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Packers, 34-31

Buffalo at Tennessee (+2.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Impressive rookie running back Karlos Williams got bottled up last week by the Giants before suffering a concussion, and the Bills' backfield is suddenly down to Anthony Dixon and Colts cast-off Dan Herron. "Boobie and Boom" sounds like a forgotten cop show from the '70s, but it's actually what Buffalo will use to attack a generous Titans run defense that allows 4.3 yards per carry. Cierre Wood could also see touches, but he doesn't have a funky nickname, though now that I think about it "Boobie, Cierre and the Boom" could also be a forgotten '70s action-comedy, or at least a modern radio morning show team. ... Marcus Mariota comes out of his bye with his toughest challenge yet, as opposition quarterbacks have managed just an 80.6 QB rating against the Bills pass defense, and that includes a game against Tom Brady. The second overall pick did throw the first two INTs of his career last time out against the Colts, but it remains to be seen how he handles the extra week of prep. It would help if he had better targets, as while Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker are nice complementary pieces, he doesn't have a true No. 1 at his disposal. ... Tennessee's backfield is officially a toxic waste dump for fantasy purposes. No back got more than 13 touches in Week 3, and those went to unheralded second-year player Antonio Andrews. At some point someone might get hot and see enough carries to produce decent numbers, or injuries could thin the herd, but at this point there's little reason to have shares of any of them. Barring a second-half resurgence, Bishop Sankey can officially be considered a bust.

Predictions: Dixon leads the Bills' backfield with 60 rushing yards and a TD. Tyrod Taylor throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns to Percy Harvin and Charles Clay. Andrews leads all Titans backs with 40 yards, while Mariota throws for 290 yards, rushes for another 30 and hits Walker and Dexter McCluster for scores. Bills, 24-20

Arizona at Detroit (+2.5) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: So how good are the Cardinals, really? They spent the first three weeks stomping on the league's also-rans, only to lose at home to the first decent team they faced. Fortunately for them, they get another also-ran in Week 5. The Lions' pass defense has been really, really bad, but it doesn't hit you just how bad they've been until you see their league-worst 78.0 completion percentage allowed. 78 percent! It's not like they've faced a parade of the NFL's best signal-callers either, as even Teddy Bridgewater managed a 98.5 QB rating against them. Carson Palmer could have more touchdowns than incompletions in this one. ... On the flip side, Detroit's offense just can't seem to get its engine started. Ameer Abdullah hasn't saved the running game, and Matthew Stafford isn't on the same page with Calvin Johnson. Stafford's now facing one of four defenses in the league with more INTs than TD passes allowed (the other three? The Jets, Broncos and Panthers), and the Cards held him to an 18-for-30, 183-yard game last year with an INT and no TDs in their building. The chances he turns things around here are pretty slim. ... Andre Ellington is set to return from his knee injury, making the Arizona backfield crowded again. Chris Johnson has been excellent in his absence, posting back-to-back games with a 5.0 YPC or higher, while rookie David Johnson keeps finding his way into the end zone on limited touches and then doing something dumb to dissuade the coaching staff from giving him more responsibility. Ellington will likely take back his starting duties, but don't expect him to see a full starter's workload.

Predictions: Ellington leads all Cardinals backs with 80 combined yards and a touchdown, while Chris Johnson also scores. Palmer throws for 330 yards and three TDs, one each to Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd. Abdullah gains 60 combined yards, while Stafford throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Golden Tate, but also gets picked off three times. Cardinals, 38-13

New England at Dallas (+8.5) - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: Bill Belichick has had two whole weeks to prepare for Brandon Weeden. Hide yo kids, hide yo wife and hide yo husband, especially if they're Cowboys fans. ... The Dallas defense is back to something close to full strength, though, so in theory they could slow Tom Brady a bit. Sean Lee seems likely to be cleared through the league's concussion protocol, Rolando McClain is back from his suspension, and Greg Hardy should give the pass rush a jolt if he can take his eyes off Giselle and focus on her spouse instead. Hardy is really the key to the Cowboys' chances not just in this game, but in simply staying afloat until Tony Romo and Dez Bryant get healthy. If he and second-year DE DeMarcus Lawrence can generate pressure without a blitz, the linebackers and secondary have the talent to step up, keep games close and maybe even keep Rob Gronkowski from having his usual huge day. ... The only person that was likely to steal the starting RB spot in Dallas away from Joseph Randle was Randle himself, but that appears to be what's happening. In consecutive weeks, despite the coaches telling him not to, he jumped over a pile at the goal line and stretched the ball out hoping to break the plane before someone swatted it out of his hand. It worked both times, but doing things your coaches tell you not to do isn't the best way to keep your job. The better question to ask, though, is why he had to jump and stretch at all. The Cowboys' offense line has not lived up to its press clippings so far in 2015, and while that's largely due to defensive fronts stacking up against the run and daring Weeden to beat them downfield, they also haven't shone in pass protection either, allowing 33 QB hits through four games (22nd in the league). The unit will need to get its act together quickly against a Patriots pass rush with 13 sacks in three games, the second-best rate in the league and the fifth-highest total despite them being one game behind the pack due to their early bye.

Predictions:Dion Lewis gains 80 combined yards, but LeGarrette Blount vultures a short TD. Brady throws for 320 yards and touchdowns to Gronk and Julian Edelman. Randle rushes for 90 yards and a score while Christine Michael also picks up his first TD as a Cowboy. Weeden struggles through, throwing for less than 200 yards and getting intercepted twice, including a pick-six by Jamie Collins. Patriots, 37-17

Denver at Oakland (+4.5) - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: It's clear at this point that Peyton Manning is no longer among the game's best quarterbacks. Much like Drew Brees in New Orleans, he's capable of exploiting weaker defenses, but against teams that can apply pressure he can't stretch the field and the opposition can sit on shorter routes. The Raiders aren't one of those tougher defenses, though, managing just eight sacks through four games and allowing opposition quarterbacks to post a 96.5 QB rating. Manning will have some rough days this season, but on paper this won't be one of them. ... His young counterpart, Derek Carr, faces a much stiffer test. The Broncos' defense allows just a 67.9 QB rating, third best in the league, and leads the NFL with 18 sacks. The Raiders' offensive line has done a good job keeping the pocket uncluttered, and Carr has only been sacked three times so far, but that number could double in Week 5. ... C.J. Anderson had another quiet game last week and was again outgained by Ronnie Hillman, but there were signs of progress, as Anderson's 70 combined yards and 3.9 YPC were both season highs. Because he's played every week there's no easy way to tell how much his toe injury has slowed him, and while the Broncos' offensive line has done him no favors, the team is just two games away from its bye. If a Week 7 rest is all he needs to get back to last year's form he could be in line for another big second half, but Hillman's proven his worth in the meantime and three more weeks can be an agonizingly long time to wait if you've gotten basically nothing out of your first-round pick so far.

Predictions: Anderson and Hillman splits touches again and both top 80 combined yards with a touchdown apiece. Manning throws for 240 yards and TDs to Demaryius Thomas and Owen Daniels, but also gets picked off again. Latavius Murray grinds out just 60 yards, but Carr stages a furious comeback attempt that falls just short, throwing for 340 yards despite four sacks and hitting Amari Cooper for 150 yards and two touchdowns while also tossing a score to Marcel Reese. Broncos, 31-27

San Francisco (+7) at N.Y. Giants - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: I've always thought MLB should put a third team in New York City and call it the 49ers, just to mess with broadcasters everywhere. Colin Kaepernick might be the first guy in line to try out for the new club, as he certainly doesn't seem interested in playing much football these days. After the Niners' surprising Week 1 win over the Vikings, their offense has seen diminishing returns every game, going from 20 points to 18 to seven to three. That looks like a trend due for a reversal, but it honestly wouldn't be a shock if the Giants shut them out completely given how well they handled Tyrod Taylor and the Bills last week. ... Rashad Jennings had his best game of the season in Week 4, pulling in 92 combined yards and a TD, but the Giants backfield remains a muddle with Andre Williams and Shane Vereen also looking for touches. All three have shown flashes this year, and while Jennings is the nominal starter, he's not likely to see anything close to a starter's workload any time soon. Against a Niners defense that's allowed a mediocre 4.1 yards per carry as well as six rushing touchdowns in four games, though, there could be enough opportunity for more than one of the trio to be productive. ... It's hard to say who's been the bigger disappointment, Odell Beckham and his merely very good 1,200-yard, eight-TD pace, or Carlos Hyde and his statistical swoon after looking like a stud in Week 1. In both cases, you can point the finger at his QB. Hyde's been neutralized by opposing defenses stacking the box and daring Kaepernick to do something about it, while Eli Manning has prioritized ball security (just one INT) over stretching the field (his 6.8 YPA would be his lowest since 2008). Of the two, Beckham is far more likely to bust out, but improved QB play for San Francisco would go a long way to giving Hyde some room to run again. Whatever the question is, Blaine Gabbert is almost never the right answer, but the team almost has nothing to lose at this point by making the switch.

Predictions: Hyde pounds out 60 yards, while Kaepernick fails to throw for 200 yards again but does manage to hit Garrett Celek for a touchdown. Jennings leads the Giants backfield with 70 combined yards, and both he and Williams hit paydirt. Manning throws for 260 yards and TDs to Beckham and Rueben Randle. Giants, 31-10

Pittsburgh (+3) at San Diego - Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: Much as Michael Vick and especially Josh Scobee were made the scapegoats for Thursday's OT loss to the Ravens, Mike Tomlin really has no one to blame but himself. Clock management may not seem like a critical skill when your star quarterback piles up TDs by the bushel, but in the kind of close games the team is likely to be playing with Vick under center, the coach needs to make smarter decisions. But hey, at least he replaced the kicker who couldn't hit on the long-range, low-percentage kicks into the wind that Tomlin asked him to make, right? ... Vick's ineptitude might not be much of an issue this week, though. Le'Veon Bell is on fire, and the Chargers' defense allows a league-high 4.9 yards per carry. The Chargers almost certainly will stack the box to try to get Vick to pass downfield, but Antonio Brown won't drop every pass Vick gets within his arm's reach, and there's no guarantee Bell will even be slowed much by those eight-man defensive fronts. The Bolts may be reduced to hoping Tomlin bails them out too. ... It's officially time to start worrying about Melvin Gordon being another Wisconsin RB bust in the NFL. Last week's game against the Browns should have been his coming-out party given Cleveland's soft run defense, but instead he managed a season-low 38 yards and 3.2 yards per carry while fellow first-round pick Todd Gurley as tearing through a much stouter Cardinals run defense like it was made of tissue paper a few hours west. The Chargers aren't going to give up on him any time soon, as Danny Woodhead isn't really an every-down option and they have too much invested in Gordon to push him aside after four games, so he'll keep getting a reasonable number of touches. If you have shares in him, though, there's no reason for you to be as stubborn as San Diego. Park him on your bench until he proves he deserves otherwise.

Predictions: Bell tops 130 combined yards for the third straight game and scores two TDs, one on the ground and one through the air. Vick throws for just 160 yards and two INTs, but does hit Brown for a second touchdown. Gordon is again ineffective, but Woodhead gains 80 combined yards and scores. Philip Rivers has his second straight 300-yard, three-TD game, hitting Kennan Allen in the end zone once and a returning Antonio Gates twice. Chargers, 31-24

Last week's record: 10-5, 7-8 ATS
Season to date: 43-20, 35-27-1 ATS