This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Stat of Week: Of the 56 players to score 300 fantasy points in a season since 1960, Andrew Luck is only the third with zero or less in a game during that year (Peyton Manning Week 17 of 2004, Larry Johnson Week 3 of 2005) per Tristan H. Cockcroft.
Buffalo (+4.5) at New England, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Not only were they defeated by Oakland 26-24, the Bills have dropped six straight to New England with their last series victory coming in 2011. Its second loss in three weeks eliminated Buffalo from playoff contention, extending football's longest current postseason drought (1999). Kyle Orton has seven interceptions the last four weeks, failing to exceed 6.7 YPA in any. Opposing quarterbacks complete just 59.2 percent against the Pats, fifth. No. 27 WR Sammy Watkins reached double figures in two of three but struggled mightily in the 37-22 October loss to NE (2-27-0). Just 75 yards shy of 1,000, Watkins is no sure thing to reach the milestone against Darrelle Revis. Scott Chandler, 20th among TE, scored eight-plus points for the third time in five games but a total of two in the other two. Buffalo did nothing in the running game (13 carries, 13 yards), but RB24 Fred Jackson continues to dominate PPR formats with nine catches or more in two of his last three-netting at least 17 points in each. In standard, Jackson scored no less than nine points in four of five. Opposing back scored only five times on the ground (second fewest) but six receiving TD (third most) against NE. ... Patriots barely survived the Jets, 17-16, then secured the AFC's No. 1 seed with Denver's MNF loss. Bill Belichick, No. 1 all-time with 12 division titles, guided his team to a first-round playoff bye each of the last five seasons. Intriguing matchup between Pats' offense, No. 1 in scoring (30.6 PPG) and fourth in sacks allowed (22), and Buffalo D, fifth in scoring (18.7 PPG) and first in sacks (50). QB7 Tom Brady, sacked a season-high four times last week, failed to throw multiple TD for the first time in 11 games, resulting in 10 points (fewest since Week 4). Brady hasn't reached the 20-point threshold in six straight after doing so each of previous five. He's thrown at least one INT in six of seven while Buffalo's third-ranked pass defense (209.9 YPG; sixth in YPA, 6.5) allows opposing quarterbacks a 16:19 TD:INT ratio, best in NFL. Since Week 8, top fantasy TE Rob Gronkowski averages 14.4 FPPG with nine or more in seven of those eight (115 total), but the Bills allow a league-low 3.7 FPPG to TE. Nice to see Danny Amendola, team highs in catches (8) and targets (11), but his presence is redundant with Julian Edelman (concussion) possessing a similar skill set. Brandon LaFell, 23rd in WR scoring, was targeted 74 times the past eight games (9.3 per). Between Patriots' committee approach and BUF allowing 13.7 FPPG to opposing RB (ninth fewest), you can't trust anyone in that backfield.
Predictions:Tom Brady, tied for league lead with 25 RZ touchdowns, throws three more during a 277-yard performance against a suddenly vulnerable Buffalo D (zero pass TD allowed in four games prior to OAK). Rob Gronkowski (81 yards) catches two, Brandon LaFell (74 yards) the other. Sammy Watkins starves on Revis Island, finishing with 3-33-0. Fred Jackson totals 79 YFS and a score. Assuming starters play, New England, 24-20.
Cleveland (+9.5) at Baltimore, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Browns fell to 7-8 with their fourth consecutive loss, scoring 13 points or fewer in three. Johnny Manziel, 13-of-26 for 112 yards and 0:2 TD:INT ratio in two starts, won't play (hamstring). Manziel, abandoning the pocket on a league-high 41 percent of dropbacks, has to stop relying on his mobility and playing backyard football if he wants to grow as a player. Brian Hoyer (shoulder) was terrible for the most part in relief, completing 6-of-12 passes for 53 yards and a pick outside of the long TD to Jordan Cameron. Amazingly, more than half (25/47 points) of Cameron's 2014 production came on two plays, 51- and 81-yard scores. After averaging 7.5 receptions, 97.5 yards, and 14.5 targets his first two games back, Josh Gordon managed just 9-18-108 in three since. Another plus matchup for Cleveland's aerial attack with Baltimore's 28th-ranked pass defense (255.3 YPG) allowing 24.7 FPPG to opposing WR, fourth most. An apparently poor week of practice kept Terrance West on the sideline versus CAR while Isaiah Crowell has 54 carries for 155 yards (2.9 YPC) the last four games. Crowell is a must-sit this week given recent struggles and BAL allowing 3.6 YPC (fifth), seven rush TD (t-fourth), 86.9 YPG (fourth), and league-low 10.3 FPPG to opposing RB. ... Given the disappointing losses to Houston Sunday and San Diego Week 13, the 9-6 Ravens are outside the playoff picture looking in. No. 14 QB Joe Flacco was nothing short of horrendous-completing 21-of-50 passes (42.0 percent) for 195 yards (3.9). After turning it over once in five games prior, Flacco completed three passes to Texan defenders. Cleveland's pass defense, allowing 220.1 YPG (seventh) and 6.3 YPA (third), leads the league with 21 interceptions. All of WR22 Torrey Smith's career-high 10 touchdowns came the past 12 games. Smith scored 11-plus points seven times during that stretch; unfortunately, he had 13 total in the other five outings, failing to exceed three points in four. No. 21 WR Steve Smith scored four or less in six of eight, shrinking the lead over his teammate to a single point. Owen Daniels, 17th in TE scoring, topped three points once the past six weeks. After averaging 5.6 YPC and 13.2 FPPG through Week 14, No. 8 RB Justin Forsett has 26 carries for 67 yards (2.6 YPC) and six points combined the last two games (at least six each of first 13). Although Forsett is coming off his two worst outings of the year, Browns rank dead last against the run (142.4 YPG).
Predictions:Josh Gordon goes for 91 yards and a touch against Lardarius Webb and Baltimore's makeshift secondary. Isaiah Crowell is stymied throughout, managing just 46 yards. Joe Haden (shoulder) shuts down Torrey Smith in his return (3-29-0) while Steve Smith snags six for 68 and a score. Justin Forsett rushes for 102 yards and a TD. Ravens do their part, hope for Charger loss. Baltimore, 23-13.
Chicago (+6) at Minnesota, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Bears lost their fourth straight, falling to 5-10, but actually showed some heart against Detroit. Trailing the Vikings by a game and beating them the first time around, a win would keep them out of the NFC North cellar. Jimmy Clausen still hasn't thrown for even 200 yards in a game his entire career, but outscored several big names (Brees, Brady, Roethlisberger, Stafford) and played much better than his numbers indicate (181 yards, 4.6 YPA). Reason being seven dropped passes, tying GB from last week for most drops this season and in six years (TB, eight in 2008). No. 13 QB Jay Cutler, leading the league in TO (24) and INT (18), will start due to Clausen's concussion. Cutler committed multiple turnovers eight times his last 11 games and Minnesota ranks eighth against the pass (226.7 YPG). WR11 Alshon Jeffery scored 13-plus points for the fourth consecutive week but dropped an absurd five passes. Martellus Bennett, fifth in TE scoring, caught 5-of-9 targets for 36 yards over the last two weeks after posting 20-193-1 on 26 targets the two prior. No. 4 RB Matt Forte hasn't topped 100 YFS in four straight but scored 44 points during that span with two-15 point games. Minnesota's 25th-ranked run defense (123.3 YPG) allows sixth-most points to RB (19.1 FPPG). ... Vikings snatched defeat from the jaws of victory for a second straight week, losing by two each time. That was the fourth multi-TD game in five tries for Teddy Bridgewater, who completed over 70 percent each of the last four. Bridgewater averages 294.3 YPG and 9.4 YPA the past three weeks while no team allows more passing TD than Chicago (33), rated 31st in both YPA (8.1) and YPG (269.3). Charles Johnson has only 25 targets the past four games, leading to low reception totals (3.5 per). Greg Jennings reached the endzone and double figures for the fourth time in five weeks, but has no more than 11 points or 77 yards in any game this year. No. 16 RB Matt Asiata has three TD and 34 points the past two weeks, scoring at least 14 in each. Asiata hasn't topped 3.7 YPC in seven straight but Chicago surrendered 14-plus points apiece to Reggie Bush and Joique Bell Sunday.
Predictions:Alshon Jeffery hits paydirt for the seventh consecutive week en route to 89 yards. Matt Forte tallies 127 YFS and a touch. Matt Asiata manages only 62 total yards but scores for the 11th time. Teddy Bridgewater makes it 10 straight with at least one TD but is outshined by Jay Cutler, redeeming himself with 286 yards and two touchdowns, pulling the upset for his last win as a Bear. Chicago, 24-23.
Dallas (-5.5) at Washington, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Cowboys demolished Indy 42-7 for their third consecutive win and fifth in six weeks. With that victory and Eagles' loss, Dallas clinched its first NFC East title since 2009. Tony Romo, 12th among QB, scored at least three TD and 20 points for the fifth time in six games, posting a 17:2 TD:INT ratio in those five (32:8 overall). Dallas' all-time leading passer averages only 243.3 YPG, exceeding 281 yards just once, but 8.5 YPA (second-best of career). No team allows more passing TD (33) or QB points (20.1 FPPG) than the Skins, 30th in both YPA (8.1) and INT (6). No. 4 WR Dez Bryant scored 104 points and eight touchdowns the past six weeks. Arguably the best RZ target in the game, Bryant has an NFL-high 14 TD catches while Washington allows fifth-most points to WR (24.5 FPPG). Terrance Williams has two catches or fewer in 12 of 15 games, primarily why that was the first time he exceeded seven points since Week 5. TE10 Jason Witten registered season highs across the board (7-90-1), just his second double-digit game of 2014. Top fantasy RB DeMarco Murray played through the hand injury, scoring 11-plus points for the 14th time. Murray has five TD and 75 points over his last four but WSH allows 12.4 FPPG to RB, second fewest. ... Redskins bested Philly 27-24 at FedEx Field Saturday, ending their six-game skid and opponent's postseason aspirations. After giving up at least five sacks in six straight, Washington finally protected Robert Griffin III (took 26 in first five games finished) with just two sacks allowed. Although he's not throwing touchdowns (three all year), Griffin averages 9.1 YPA his last two games and threw two beautiful deep balls to DeSean Jackson. The most hit-or-miss player in recent memory, Jackson scored 112 of his 130 season points in seven games. Meaning he averages 16.0 FPPG in the seven hits, but managed a measly 18 total points in eight misses. Pierre Garcon, outside the top-50 WR, has 26 points in the last eight games combined. Jordan Reed has two points or less in six of seven. RB10 Alfred Morris is one of only two players with 1,000-plus rushing yards each of the last three seasons, second only to Marshawn Lynch with 3,919 during that time. Morris scored more points (14) last week than his previous three combined (12) and only ATL allows more rushing TD than Dallas (17).
Predictions:Tony Romo shreds the leaky Redskin secondary for 297 yards and three TD, more than half that production through Dez Bryant (9-149-2). DeMarco Murray totes 23 times for 93 yards and a touch. Robert Griffin III passes for 233 yards and a score, running for 42 and another. Alfred Morris rushes for 88 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Cowboys cover, remaining undefeated on the road. Dallas, 34-27.
Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Colts clearly didn't come to play and got embarrassed 42-7 in Big D, their worst loss since 2011 (NE, 59-25). After a beating like that, it's hard to imagine Chuck Pagano resting starters. Andrew Luck delivered maybe the worst performance in FFB history given the circumstances; last time the highest-scoring fantasy QB had zero points or less at any point in that season: Steve Grogan, 1979. Luck has six turnovers the past three weeks, averaging 5.5 YPA or worse in each. He has 296 yards combined his last two games after averaging 331.2 the first 13. Don't envision WR10 T.Y. Hilton playing given the high probability of aggravating hamstring injuries and Indy being locked into a No. 3-4 seed. Donte Moncrief goose-egged despite playing a season-high 81.5 percent of snaps. Moncrief has 21 targets his last seven games with no more than four in any. Reggie Wayne has 93 yards combined on 32 targets (2.9 YPT) the past five weeks (all 31 yards or fewer). Dwayne Allen, 12th in TE scoring, totaled a paltry 21 yards in four games since returning (ankle). No. 7 TE Coby Fleener has just six points over the last two weeks after scoring 58 the previous five. Dan Herron, averaging 11.7 touches and 5.3 points his last three, is high-risk even facing Tennessee, 31st in rushing yards (142.1) and dead last in RB points (21.7 FPPG) allowed. ... Thanks to their ninth consecutive loss, Titans are still in play for the top overall pick at 2-13. They are the first D/ST to record less than seven points against JAX but did score their first opening-drive TD in over a year (12/8/2013). Charlie Whitehurst has been more than serviceable, averaging 8.2 YPA or better in four of five including 8.3 over the past two weeks. Whitehurst has a 6:2 TD:INT ratio, impressive given the dearth of weapons at his disposal. Kendall Wright caught 11-of-14 targets for 205 yards (14.6 YPT) his last two games. Delanie Walker, seventh in TE scoring, broke the franchise single-season record for receiving yards by a TE (Frank Wycheck, 768 in 1998). Walker averages 15.1 YPC with eight different 25-yard receptions, second at his position in both categories, while IND allows second-most FPPG to TE (9.6). Leon Washington scored as many points (13) as Bishop Sankey and Shonn Greene have altogether the last two games combined.
Predictions:Andrew Luck passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns, running for a third. Reggie Wayne scores his last regular-season TD. Coby Fleener hauls in five for 67 and a score. Dan Herron and Trent Richardson combine for 29-163-1. Delanie Walker catches the Titans' only TD during a 79-yard day. Colts take care of business. Indianapolis, 33-16.
Jacksonville (+9.5) at Houston, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Playing as a favorite for the first time in 43 games, Jaguars rattled off 21 straight points to climb out an early 10-0 hole and beat Tennessee 21-13. Sen'Derrick Marks' game-ending sack earned him an extra $600,000 (eight-sack bonus escalator in contract) and much-deserved recognition. That was their second win in four games but Jags will be drafting top-10 for the eighth consecutive year. Blake Bortles played turnover-free for just the second time but averages 5.3 YPA over his last five, all 5.7 or worse. Bortles was sacked 27 times in those five (at least four in each) and faces J.J. Watt, who got him three times the first meeting and has eight sacks the past four weeks. Marqise Lee has 65-plus yards in three of four and serious potential if Jacksonville's inept offense doesn't derail his career. Excluding Week 15, Cecil Shorts has 59 yards on 28 targets (2.1 YPT) his last four games. Toby Gerhart only has 35 more yards than he did last season...on 61 more carries. However, he rushed for at least 53 yards and 4.2 YPC each of the last two weeks. Jordan Todman, who broke off a Jaguar season-long 62-yard run to seal it, and Storm Johnson would split first-team duties if Gerhart (rib contusion) can't go. Houston is third in rush TD (6) and seventh in YPC (3.8) allowed. ... Texans are still alive after upsetting Baltimore 25-13, their third win in four games. At 8-7, Houston needs a win and losses by SD and BAL to sneak in. Very much like the tail end of 2013, Case Keenum was brutal, completing 47.6 percent of his passes for 4.4 YPA. Only the Chiefs have picked off fewer passes than Jacksonville (5), allowing 7.8 YPA (26th). Andre Johnson is the 10th player with 1,000 career receptions (second-fastest to milestone) but has six points or fewer in six of seven. Since his career day against Tennessee (238 yards, 35 points), WR14 DeAndre Hopkins averages 4.7 FPPG and 5.3 YPT (three games). No. 5 RB Arian Foster scored 15-plus for the eighth time in nine games, the lone exception: 10 points. Foster rushed for at least 96 yards in nine of 12 outings while only five teams allow more rushing yards (127.3 YPG) and TD (14) than Jacksonville.
Predictions:Arian Foster explodes for 142 yards and two touchdowns. Neither Andre Johnson (68) nor DeAndre Hopkins (73) reaches the painted area or 75 yards. J.J. Watt records 2.5 sacks, hitting the 20-sack mark for the second time. Texans stifle Toby Gerhart (15-43-0) and turn over Blake Bortles twice to secure their third winning season in four years. Houston, 22-13.
San Diego (+2.5) at Kansas City, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: What a reversal of fortunes for the Chargers, rallying from 21 points down to beat SF 38-35 in OT and avoid a three-game losing streak. With that victory and BAL losing, San Diego jumps into the sixth seed at 9-6 and finds itself in "win and in" territory. In a gutsy performance, No. 10 QB scored a season-high four TD and 24-plus points for the second time in three weeks. However, he's thrown at least one INT in eight of nine, 14 total during stretch. Fortunately, KC has fewer interceptions this season (4) than Rivers does the past two weeks (5). Antonio Gates, second in TE scoring, bounced back from a five-game scoreless streak (17 points total) with three TD and 32 points over his last two. Gates, a member of the most prolific QB/TE scoring tandem (72 TD from Rivers), joined Rob Gronkowski as only TE with four seasons of double-digit touchdowns. Dontrelle Inman stepped up in his first game action, consistently going up and getting balls in traffic. SD won all five double-digit games by WR31 Eddie Royal, who has at least 9-80-1 in two of four. Malcom Floyd, 27th among WR, reached double figures in three of his last six but caught more than four balls only once all season. Chiefs allow 200.2 YPG and 6.3 YPA through the air, second in both categories. Although Branden Oliver averages 3.5 YPC, he will carry the load should Ryan Mathews (ankle) miss another game; Donald Brown is that bad (2.5 YPC). Kansas City has allowed a league-low three rush TD but ranks 28th in YPG (128.3) and 30th in YPC (4.7). ... After their fourth loss in five weeks, the 8-7 Chiefs need a win and worlds of help to make the playoffs. Another curious play-calling game from Andy Reid with Alex Smith dropping back 51 times while Jamaal Charles gets just nine carries despite being within one score throughout. Smith, 17:3 TD:INT ratio since Week 2, has 901 yards the past three weeks (293 or more in each) but took at least five sacks in three of four. TE9 Travis Kelce has been more involved, targeted 22 times the past three games (16 receptions). This is the last chance for Dwayne Bowe, Albert Wilson, and co. to get in the endzone and avoid embarrassment. No. 7 RB Jamaal Charles has carried a meager 41 times the past four weeks. The last two games produced his two lowest scoring outputs (5, 4 points) since Week 2 but Chargers' run defense ranks 29th in YPC (4.6) and 26th in YPG (125.0).
Predictions:Philip Rivers throws for 255 yards and two scores. Antonio Gates ties career high with his 13th touchdown, 100th career, during a 71-yard day. Travis Kelce hauls in five for 75. Jamaal Charles, finally utilized, amasses 158 total yards (120 rushing) and two touchdowns, snapping a two-game scoreless streak (at least one TD in previous eight). Chargers lose the game and sixth seed. Kansas City, 20-17.
New York Jets (+5.5) at Miami, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Jets showed well against NE, nearly winning for the second time in as many weeks. Probably just as well for draft positioning, they currently own the fifth selection and won't pick higher than third or lower than sixth. Geno Smith fixed his turnover issues to a certain degree with just three in five games since returning. Unfortunately he's thrown only three touchdowns during that time and Miami's fourth-rated pass defense allows 211.3 YPG. Darrelle Revis held Eric Decker to 2-21-0 on four targets; expect similar results against Brent Grimes. Percy Harvin (ribs) has five points over his last two games and might've played his last as a Jet. Chris Johnson has 56 touches to 57 for Chris Ivory over the last four weeks. This backfield rotation minimizes the value and effectiveness of both players; running backs need volume to find a rhythm. In their first meeting (16-13 loss on MNF), New York ran for 277 yards against Miami, ranked 24th in both YPG (122.2) and YPC (4.4). ... Dolphins beat Minnesota 37-35 in one of the crazier back-and-forth battles you'll never talk about again. That was the second game-winning safety in as many years for MIA, who beat Cincinnati on an OT Cameron Wake sack last Halloween. Wake sacked Teddy Bridgewater twice, giving him his third double-digit sack season and triggering a $750,000 performance bonus. No. 9 QB Ryan Tannehill scored season-highs four TD and 29 points last week, giving him 742 yards over his last two. NYJ allow the fifth-most points to opposing QB (17.6 FPPG). By scoring twice, WR16 Mike Wallace reached double-digit TD for the first time since 2010 but remains 138 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard season since 2011. Wallace has at least 16 points in two straight (33 total) after scoring 12 or fewer each of first 13 games. Jarvis Landry caught at least six passes for a fifth straight time, giving him a Dolphins rookie-record 79 this year. Landry has 49 receptions the past seven weeks. Charles Clay has five catches or more in five of six. Lamar Miller, 11th in RB scoring, tallied 150 total yards, most all year and first time eclipsing the century mark since Week 3. Although Miller is coming off a season-high 20 points and scored 12 against NYJ last time, they rank third in YPC (3.5), fifth in YPG (87.3), and sixth in RB points (12.9/game) allowed.
Predictions: Unable to move the ball through the air, Jets rely on the run. Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory combine for 141 on the ground; both score. Ryan Tannehill airs it out 35 times, resulting in 292 yards and two TD. Mike Wallace goes for 6-82-1. Lamar Miller earns all 77 of his yards from scrimmage and scores. Although eliminated from playoff contention, Dolphins end on a high note. Miami, 24-14.
New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Saints lost their fifth straight at home, dropping to 6-9 and out the playoffs. Just as surprising as their home woes and road successes (won three in a row) is the inconsistency of Drew Brees. Although fifth in QB scoring and 329 yards short of his fourth consecutive 5,000-yard season, Brees will see a drop in touchdowns for a third straight year (46-43-39-32). He's 10 shy of his three-year average (42.7) and has 11 points or fewer in two of three but Tampa ranks 26th against the pass (254.4 YPG). Despite scoring his first TD since Week 12, No. 3 TE Jimmy Graham hasn't cracked double digits since then and averages 40.2 YPG over his last six. Since his 162-yard explosion, Kenny Stills has 158 yards in three games. Although he's catching 73.7 percent of his looks for 8.3 YPT over those three (11.2 YPT overall), Stills sees barely six targets per game during that time. With at least 42 yards in three straight and four of five (4-6 targets in each), Nick Toon is stealing just enough opportunities to impact others but not enough to be fantasy relevant. Marques Colston has at least 65 yards in three straight and four of five while Tampa allows 24.9 FPPG to WR, third most. All three wideouts average 9.1 YPT or better, two yards more than Graham. Mark Ingram, 14th among RB, hasn't reached even 60 yards in three straight but scored double-digits in three of four thanks to cheap touchdowns. Ingram has the second-most GL carries in football (Lynch) but only 40 altogether the past three weeks (13.3 per) and TB is ninth in YPC (3.9). ... Buccaneers lost to GB 20-3, their fifth straight defeat. Fortunately, they control their own destiny for the No. 1 overall pick as they've clinched strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over TEN. At 2-13 they're one loss away from Mariota/Winston, but wouldn't it be classic Yucks to screw it up? New Orleans allows 18.3 FPPG to QB (third most) but Josh McCown has no more than 12 points in five straight, including five or less in two of his last four, with 11 turnovers during that stretch. Vincent Jackson out-gained No. 12 WR Mike Evans in three straight and four of five, edging him 430-203 over that span. Evans hasn't reached even 50 yards since Week 11 but Saints allow seventh-most FPPG to WR (23.9). Doug Martin scored two points or less in four of six but NO allows 20.5 FPG to opposing RB, fourth most.
Predictions: Sean Payton goes pass-heavy to get Drew Brees to 5k; he throws for 343 yards and three TD. Kenny Stills maximizes his seven targets, gaining 103 yards and a TD. Jimmy Graham (76 yards) and Marques Colston (66 yards) both score. Mark Ingram rushes for 82 yards and a touch. Mike Evans posts 7-99-1, Vincent Jackson 6-82-0. Doug Martin runs for 74 yards and scores. Saints roll, clinching top pick for Tampa. New Orleans, 35-17.
Philadelphia (+3) at New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: If you told me a month ago Philly would be getting points against Big Blue ... but Eagles lost three straight, eliminating them from playoff contention, and New York won each of its last three. Mark Sanchez played well save two plays, but those turnovers (along with two Cody Parkey missed FG) cost PHI dearly. Such is the narrative for Sanchez, who's turned it over 100 times (79 interceptions/21 fumbles) in 70 career games. He's averaging a career-high 7.8 YPA with multiple TD in five of eight but has multiple giveaways in five as well. No. 6 WR Jeremy Maclin was inexcusably targeted six times each these last three weeks, resulting in three single-digit outputs, despite netting 10.1 YPT during that time. Jordan Matthews has no more than five targets in four straight, leading to 132 yards over that span. Zach Ertz, 14th in TE scoring, was targeted a ridiculous 18 times against WSH, converting 15 for 115 yards (both career highs) and his first double-digit performance since Week 6. Amazing jump in usage for a guy averaging 4.6 targets through 14 games; maybe next year they try utilizing him. RB11 LeSean McCoy has 16-plus points in three of five while NYG is 30th in YPG (133.2) and last in YPC (3.9) allowed. ... Given their three-game winning streak and recent offensive success (30.3 PPG over last four), good chance Tom Coughlin returns for a 12th season. No. 11 QB Eli Manning scored at least 22 points and three TD in consecutive games without committing a turnover in either. Manning averages 18.6 FPPG his last five games while Eagles allow 18.1 to quarterbacks this season, fourth most. Odell Beckham Jr., eighth in WR scoring despite missing the first month, posted 31-421-6 on 42 targets the past three weeks, scoring at least 19 points in each. Beckham, whose 79 receptions represent a team rookie-record and most ever through a player's first 11 career games, is the first rookie with three 10-catch games. Beckham (173 points) is the highest-scoring rookie fantasy wideout since Randy Moss (228 in 1998), and Philadelphia allows the most TD (21) and second-most points (25.1 FPPG) to WR. Hard to believe a player as ordinary as TE12 Larry Donnell, just 12 points his last five games combined, led all tight ends with 20 RZ targets entering Week 16. Andre Williams carried 68 times the last three weeks, hitting the century mark twice, but averages 3.4 YPC while Eagles allow 3.8 (sixth in NFL).
Predictions: Eagles give LeSean McCoy 20-plus carries for the 11th time, resulting in his fifth 100-yard game (22-122-2). Jeremy Maclin gets the better of DRC, finishing with eight catches for 111 yards and a score. Odell Beckham goes for 129 yards and a touch, tying Michael Irvin's record for consecutive games with 90 yards or more (9). Eli Manning and Mark Sanchez both throw for at least 280 yards and two TD. Eagles stop the bleeding. Philadelphia, 31-28.
Oakland (+14.5) at Denver, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Raiders won their third straight at home, spoiling Buffalo's playoff hopes and their own draft positioning in the process. However, Oakland is 0-7 on the road, outscored 83-13 the last two. Latavius Murray has 381 total yards the last four games with a 20-yard run in four of his last five. Murray touched it 65 times the past three weeks but Denver's run D, despite giving up 207 to CIN, ranks second in YPG (80.6) and fifth in YPC (3.7). Derek Carr has a 6:0 TD:INT ratio over his last three and Broncos surrender 16.8 FPPG to opposing QB, seventh most. However, Carr's YPA during that stretch is 5.8 (5.5 overall) and DEN allows a league-low 6.1 YPA. Maybe the worst No. 1 receiver in football, James Jones (6.0 YPT) is completely overmatched against Aqib Talib or Chris Harris. Andre Holmes has at least 70 yards each of his last two but hasn't scored a touchdown or more than seven points since Week 8. Kenbrell Thompkins showed up last week but averages 6.3 yards on 115 career targets. Denver allows 17.9 FPPG to opposing WR, t-fifth fewest. TE16 Mychal Rivera, the west coast Larry Donnell, has 40 yards or less in five of his last six and 12 of 15 games this season. ... Broncos, 5-3 over their last eight, lost the game and any hopes of the No. 1 seed Monday. They still clinch a first-round bye with a victory but don't look like the same team from 2012-2013. However, Peyton Manning won his only SB in a similar situation, as that 2006 Colts squad was maybe the worst during that run but the best defensively. Manning, fourth in QB scoring, threw as many picks the last eight games as brother Eli Manning has all year (13), including four last week (fifth career four-INT game). He has a 5:6 TD:INT ratio over his last four, scoring no more than 13 points in any. No. 3 WR Demaryius Thomas reached double figures in 11 of 12, eclipsing the century mark in nine. Emmanuel Sanders, fifth among WR, broke a four-game scoreless streak but averages only 63 YPG over his last four (less than 75 in each). Julius Thomas, sixth in TE scoring, remains tied for TD lead at his position (12) but has a meager five catches for 66 yards and zero touchdowns since Week 11. RB15 C.J. Anderson scored at least 19 points for the fourth time in five games and Oakland allows 21.3 FPPG to opposing backs, third most.
Predictions: In another brutal matchup for Latavius Murray, the second-year pro totals 89 YFS and scores. Peyton Manning gets his groove back with 367 yards and four touchdowns. Demaryius Thomas scores twice during a 121-yard day. Julius Thomas (44 yards) and Emmanuel Sanders (109 yards) both find the endzone. C.J. Anderson totals 129 yards (93 rushing) and a TD. Broncos roll, finishing 8-0 at home. Denver, 42-14.
Arizona (+6) at San Francisco, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Cardinals lost for the third time in five weeks, finally surrendering the NFC West lead and No. 1 seed to Seattle. This offense is completely inept, scoring a measly 53 points during that five-game stretch. Arizona needs a win and Seahawks loss to clinch division and first-round bye, but the last nine teams to play SEA lost the following week. Sad to say, but Cards will likely be underdogs to a seven-win NFC South champ come wild card weekend. No quarterback in history took longer to throw his first TD than Ryan Lindley (225 career attempts and counting). Bruce Arians took the "quick hook" to a new level, naming Logan Thomas starter then reversing his decision Thursday. Larry Fitzgerald has 34 yards or less in four straight despite seeing 30 targets the last three. Excluding a 17-point Week 11, Michael Floyd scored 24 points his last eight games. Floyd, barely inside the top-50, averages 36.3 YPG over the last 12. Arizona managed a paltry 29 rushing yards last week and only three teams allow fewer rushing TD than SF (7), football's seventh-rated run defense (100.9 YPG). ... 49ers scored more points the first half against SD (28) than any game since Week 6 but lost nonetheless, blowing 28-7 and 35-21 leads along the way. Incredible a team that's lost four straight is favored by nearly a touchdown over an 11-4 squad. No. 17 QB Colin Kaepernick showcased his tantalizing talent on that 90-yard run in the third quarter, second longest both all-time by a quarterback (2013: Terrelle Pryor, 93) and in 49ers history (1998: Garrison Hearst, 96). Unfortunately that play netted more points (15) than any entire game he's played since Week 6 (scored 13 or fewer in each). Kaepernick rushed for 151 yards, more than he's passed for in three of his last four. WR26 Anquan Boldin, not in the playoffs for the first time since 2007 with AZ, averages 39.0 yards and 3.5 fantasy points over his last four. Michael Crabtree, neck-and-neck with Michael Floyd for most disappointing fantasy receiver of 2014, likely played his last game in San Fran. Quinton Patton and Bruce Ellington should get a long look; unfortunately for them, a matchup with Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie awaits. After averaging just 314.1 total YPG through Week 15 (29th in NFL), San Fran rushed for 355 yards last week, breaking the franchise record of 328 set in 1998 at Detroit. No. 18 RB Frank Gore had one last hurrah in a Niners uniform (26-158-1) but Arizona allows fourth-fewest points to RB (12.7 FPPG).
Predictions:Ryan Lindley (181 yards) throws three picks. Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor are both held under 40 yards rushing. Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald have 53 yards apiece; Fitz scores. Colin Kaepernick hits 200 yards passing for the first time in five games, throwing his lone TD to Anquan Boldin (67 yards). Frank Gore manages just 59 yards on 18 carries. Jim Harbaugh wins his final game with 49ers, finishing 8-8. San Francisco, 16-13.
St. Louis (+12.5) at Seattle, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: St. Louis lost its second straight, clinching the franchise's eighth consecutive losing season. After shutting out back-to-back opponents, resulting in 53 fantasy points, the Rams D/ST totaled zero points the last two weeks. Shaun Hill averaged 8.0 YPA with a 6:2 TD:INT ratio in his last four games, but Seattle allows the fewest YPG (185.5) and FPPG (10.8) to opposing QB. Kenny Britt has 14 catches for 168 yards on 20 targets his last two games, but Richard Sherman is No. 1 in passer rating against (43.4) and receptions surrendered (27, no other qualifying CB less than 40). Tavon Austin has no more than 20 yards receiving in a game since Week 6 and a season-high of 35. Stedman Bailey averages just six targets over his last five despite netting 11.1 YPT during that stretch. Seattle allows 3.2 fewer FPPG to WR than any team in football (13.0). Excluding Week 14 against Washington, TE15 Jared Cook has merely 109 yards on 31 targets (3.5 YPT) the past five games. Tre Mason, 23rd among RB, carried just 13 each of the last two weeks after averaging 19.8 his previous four. Seattle run defense is third in YPG (84.1), YPC (3.5) and FPPG (12.5) allowed to RB. ... Seahawks amassed a franchise-record 596 total yards against Arizona, their fifth straight win and eighth in nine games. With a victory, they take the NFC West and No. 1 seed (permitting DET/GB don't tie) for the second consecutive year. Seattle, poised to become only the fourth team in NFL history to lead the league in yards AND points allowed in back-to-back seasons, gives up a measly 193.6 YPG and 6.6 PPG over their last five. One cause for concern is flags, as they have more than their opponent in 13 of their last 14 games and have the worst ratio of penalties called for/against since 1953 Cleveland Browns (most called against, fewest for opposition). Russell Wilson became just the second QB with multiple games of 300-plus yards passing and at least 80 rushing (Michael Vick). Wilson, third in QB scoring, would be the only member of the 3,500/900 club if he throws for 264 yards and runs for 58. He has 11 total TD and one turnover since Week 11 (six games) and 28 points or more in two of three. No. 3 RB Marshawn Lynch reached double figures in four straight and seven of eight. Lynch, over 1,200 for the fourth straight year, leads the league in TD this season (16, career high) and rushing yards since 2012 (4,093). His career-long 79-yard run was every bit as sensational as the original Beast Quake and one of the most incredible individual efforts you'll ever see. Doug Baldwin has 263 yards on 24 targets the last three weeks (11.0 YPT), and Luke Willson earned more looks with his 3-139-2 line on three targets versus AZ.
Predictions:Richard Sherman picks off Shaun Hill, tying Everson Walls and Lester Hayes for most INT in first four seasons (25). Seahawks swallow up Tre Mason, forfeiting just 39 rushing yards to the rookie. Russell Wilson totals 263 yards (45 rushing) and two scores. Marshawn Lynch grinds out 106 yards and a touch on 21 carries. Rams play them tough, but Hawks aren't losing this game. Seattle, 21-10.
Carolina (+3.5) at Atlanta, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Panthers came from behind to beat Cleveland 17-13, winning their third in a row to reclaim the division lead; unbelievable considering that midseason seven-game winless streak. This serves as a de facto NFC South Championship, or play-in game as the victor hosts the fifth seed in the Wildcard round. Primarily because of vintage rushing totals (24-146-2), No. 15 QB Cam Newton scored 22-plus points each of his last two (57 combined). Throughout his career, Newton destroys the Falcons, dead last against the pass (291.1 YPG). WR15 Kelvin Benjamin was targeted at least 12 times in four of five dating back to first meeting with ATL, where he established career highs in catches (9) and targets (13). After hauling in 10 each of his previous two, No. 3 TE Greg Olsen was held to a season-low one reception by CLE. Olsen found the endzone once the last nine games while only four teams allow fewer TE touchdowns than Atlanta (3). Jonathan Stewart, 26th in RB scoring, has 66 carries for 352 yards (5.3 YPC) the past three weeks including two 100-yard games (18-plus points in each). Stewart has no less than 20 carries or 75 yards during this stretch and reached double figures in four of six. No team allows more rushing TD (19) or points (21.7 FPPG) to RB than Atlanta. ... Falcons thoroughly outplayed NO, earning a 30-14 victory and season sweep over their rival. Matt Ryan, eighth in QB scoring, passed for 1,368 yards the past four weeks, an average of 342 YPG with at least 310 in each. Ryan scored 87 points during that span, breaking 20 three times. Julio Jones, second in yards and sixth in points among WR, caught 28-of-37 targets for 555 yards (75.7 percent catch rate, 15.0 YPT) his last three games. Jones scored double-digit points in five of six, the one exception being Week 11 at Carolina. No. 23 WR Roddy White hasn't reached 60 yards in three straight after doing so each of the five games prior but has 40-536-6 his last five against the Panthers. Since Week 2, Harry Douglas has no more than four receptions or 47 yards in any game Jones and White both play. RB21 Steven Jackson (quad) is questionable, but rookie Devonta Freeman tallied 84 yards on just eight touches last week and Panthers allow 4.5 YPC (28th in NFL). No. 4 K Matt Bryant, leading the league with seven 50-plus yard FG, scored at least 15 points in four of seven.
Predictions:Cam Newton accounts for 309 yards and two TD (8-56-1 rushing). Kelvin Benjamin reaches the 1,000-yard plateau and scores his 10th TD with 6-84-1. Jonathan Stewart rushes 21 times for 101 yards and a touch. Matt Ryan passes for 303 yards and three scores with 158 and two going to Julio Jones. Falcons become second 7-9 team to make playoffs in five years, Atlanta, 27-23.
Detroit (+7.5) at Green Bay, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Lions won their fourth in a row, clinching the club's first playoff berth since 2011. The winner will be crowned NFC North champs and almost assured of the No. 2 seed, but Detroit hasn't won at Lambeau since 1991. Fascinating matchup of strengths, as Lions are second in total defense (295.9 YPG) and points allowed (16.8 PPG) whereas Packers' offense ranks second in points (30.4 PPG) and sixth in total yards (386.7 YPG). Matthew Stafford, 16th in QB scoring, hasn't topped 10 points in four of six with 406 yards and a 1:2 TD:INT ratio on 6.1 YPA the past two weeks. Stafford scored a season low three points against GB Week 3, committing a season-high three TO. It's no secret Stafford is reckless with the football-as evidenced by that two-play sequence in Chicago (ill-advised throw to Tate works out, immediately intercepted throwing late across the middle)-and Packers are tied for sixth with 18 interceptions. No. 17 WR Calvin Johnson averages 6.4 catches for 101.9 yards in the 10 games he's finished and has 62 points his last four games. WR13 Golden Tate scored single digits each of his last four. Joique Bell, 11th among RB, and Reggie Bush scored 14-plus points apiece last week, giving Bell 71 over his last four reaching double figures in each. Unlikely repeated by Bush, he had only 13 touches and that was his first YFS total above 34 since Week 5. ... Packers, postseason qualifiers for the sixth consecutive year, didn't look sharp in Tampa but won for the sixth time in seven games nonetheless. No. 2 QB Aaron Rodgers has just 19 points combined the past two weeks after scoring at least that many each of his previous eight. Rodgers entered Week 15 with just four turnovers, but gave it away three times since and struggled (season-low 162 yards, 6.0 YPA, 10 points) in the first meeting with Detroit, allowing third-fewest FPPG to QB (12.9). Jordy Nelson, second among WR, scored four TD and 59 points the last four games. WR8 Randall Cobb is coming off season-highs in catches (11) and yards (131) but hasn't found the endzone in six straight. Lions allow 18.6 FPPG to opposing WR, eighth fewest. Eddie Lacy, sixth in RB scoring, averaged at least 4.7 YPC each of his last six games, scoring in five with eight TD during that time. Lacy rushed for 492 yards the past five, going for 97 or more in four. Detroit's run defense, No. 1 in both YPC (3.1) and YPG (63.8), allows 12.5 FPPG to opposing RB (t-third fewest).
Predictions:Calvin Johnson (38-688-3 last five versus GB including four 100-yd games) abuses Sam Shields and Tramon Williams, accounting for 161 of Matthew Stafford's 294 yards and only touchdown. Joique Bell carries 19 times for 91 yards and scores. Aaron Rodgers passes for 279 yards and two TD. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb combine for 14-181-1 while Eddie Lacy struggles (69 YFS). Packers win fourth straight division title. Green Bay, 26-23.
Cincinnati (+3.5) at Pittsburgh, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Bengals, 2-13 in previous 15 primetime games, got the monkey off their back with a 37-28 win over Denver, their second straight and fifth in six weeks. QB19 Andy Dalton, 13 points or fewer in four of five, has 263 yards on 50 attempts (5.3 YPA) the last two games and 12 INT his past nine. Dalton was 2-of-8 for 32 yards on throws 10 or more yards downfield, including the pick-six. Pittsburgh has returned four interceptions to the house (t-most in NFL) but allows the sixth-most yards (255.2 YPG) and points (17.4 FPPG) to opposing QB. A.J. Green (questionable, arm) scored four points in two games since decimating the Steelers for 11-224-1. Green, 20th in WR scoring, was overthrown on all four targets before exiting but hopes to play against PIT, allowing 23.3 FPPG to WR (ninth most). Outside of getting in Jeremy Hill's way, WR29 Mohamed Sanu has done nothing for a month with four points his last four games combined. Hill's 85-yard TD made he and Giovani Bernard, 22 points the past two weeks, the only teammates to each have 85-plus yard runs the same season. Fantasy's No. 9 RB rushed for at least 147 yards four times this year, including each of the last two weeks (47-295-3). Pittsburgh is rated sixth against the run (99.3 YPG) but allows 4.4 YPC (25th). ... Steelers won their third straight to clinch their first playoff berth since 2011. Winning would give Pittsburgh, who beat Cincy 42-21 Week 14, its first division title in four years. No. 6 QB Ben Roethlisberger has only one touchdown and 26 points his last two after scoring at least 25 each of the two games prior (five TD). No team allows fewer passing TD than Cincinnati (16), permitting only 13.0 FPPG to QB (fourth). Top fantasy wideout Antonio Brown caught at least seven passes in 10 straight and 13 of 15 games so far. Brown scored 11 points or more each of his last five but Bengals allow second-fewest points to WR (16.2 FPPG). Ever so quietly, TE11 Heath Miller scored seven-plus points in five straight with at least 68 yards in four. Le'Veon Bell, just two points shy of DeMarco Murray for top RB, carried at least 20 times each of his last five, leading to 133 points (26.6 per). Although Bell averages just 2.8 YPC the past two weeks (40-110), Cincy allows 19.9 FPPG to opposing RB, fifth most. The "Killer B's" trio is the first to have a 4,400-yard passer, 1,400-yard receiver, and 1,300-yard rusher since the Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison/Edgerrin James triplets of 2000 Colts.
Predictions:A.J. Green plays through pain, managing six catches for 86 yards and a score. Jeremy Hill continues his phenomenal run with 105 yards and a touch. Ben Roethlisberger passes for 268 yards and two TD with 9-109-1 going to Antonio Brown. Le'Veon Bell goes for 133 total yards and scores. In the third de facto division-championship game of the week (DET/GB, CAR/ATL), Steelers prevail. Pittsburgh, 24-21.
