NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 11

Atlanta (+3) at Seattle, 45.0 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Falcons' offense looked a little better last week, and it's possible removing Devonta Freeman from the equation allows offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to focus more on what's working rather than spreading the ball around without much purpose. Then again, beating up a Cowboys defense that lost Sean Lee early in the contest isn't much of a test. The Seahawks rebounded as expected from their ugly home loss to Washington, and they should be a lot more used to playing in wet conditions than a pampered dome team like Atlanta, but they'll need to keep winning if they want to keep the Rams in their sights in the NFC West.

The Skinny:
•2017 ATL offense: 21.9 PPG (15th), 116.4 rushing yds/gm (13th), 263.6 passing yds/gm (10th), 15 sacks allowed (8th), 11 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 SEA offense: 23.4 PPG (11th), 100.7 rushing yds/gm (22nd), 282.6 passing yds/gm (2nd), 23 sacks allowed (T-16th), nine turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 ATL defense: 19.9 PPG allowed (T-10th), 113.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (19th), 219.1 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), 26 sacks (T-7th), eight turnovers (T-28th)
•2017 SEA defense: 18.3 PPG allowed (T-5th), 101.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 237.3 passing yds/gm allowed (14th), 25 sacks (T-10th), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•Matt Ryan career stats versus SEA, four games: 2-2, 63.2 percent completion rate, 243.0 passing yds/gm, 8:2 TD:INT, 6.3 YPA, 92.7 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: overcast, less than 10 mph wind, 61 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Tevin Coleman races for 90 yards and a score. Ryan throws for 220 yards and TDs to Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu. Thomas Rawls leads the 'Hawks backfield with 50 yards. Russell Wilson throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson, and puts together a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Seahawks, 23-21

Detroit at Chicago (+3), 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: With losses to the Panthers and Falcons already on the books, the 5-4 Lions have a tough path to the playoffs, so they can't afford to drop a winnable game against a rebuilding Chicago squad too. The Bears lost last week at home to Brett Hundley, which would seem to make them easy pickings for Matthew Stafford, but the recent history of this rivalry suggests they'll be anything but, especially with Mitchell Trubisky coming off his best performance yet in the NFL.

The Skinny:
•2017 DET offense: 27.1 PPG (6th), 82.6 rushing yds/gm (29th), 273.4 passing yds/gm (6th), 30 sacks allowed (T-27th), 11 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 CHI offense: 16.7 PPG (T-28th), 121.8 rushing yds/gm (9th), 189.0 passing yds/gm (31st), 24 sacks allowed (T-19th), 16 turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 DET defense: 23.3 PPG allowed (21st), 102.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (10th), 262.2 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), 20 sacks (T-18th), 18 turnovers (T-2nd)
•2017 CHI defense: 21.6 PPG allowed (13th), 110.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 224.1 passing yds/gm allowed (10th), 26 sacks (T-7th), 11 turnovers (T-20th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 DET, average score DET 24-CHI 21, average margin of victory five points. The only game during the period with a margin of victory greater than one score was a 34-17 DET win on Thanksgiving 2014.
•Stafford career stats vs. CHI, 14 games: 8-6, 62.7 percent completion rate, 263.9 passing yds/gm, 22:17 TD:INT, 6.9 YPA, 83.7 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: clear, 13 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ameer Abdullah runs for 70 yards. Stafford throws for 250 yards and TDs to Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay, while Jamal Agnew returns a punt to the house. Jordan Howard bangs out 110 yards and his first score since Week 4. Trubisky throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Adam Shaheen, but he gets picked off twice. Lions, 24-20

Jacksonville at Cleveland (+7.5), 37.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Leonard Fournette's ankle is bothering him again, but Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon have proven to be adequate fill-ins, and the Jags likely won't need to get too much production from their running game anyway. Their defense continues to be the engine of the team's success, and facing a Browns offense that "leads" the league in turning the ball over should allow them to keep steam-rolling ahead towards their first playoff berth since 2007. Cleveland does get Corey Coleman back this week, but DeShone Kizer's 5.5 YPA doesn't exactly suggest he'll know how to take advantage of a deep threat now that he has one.

The Skinny:
•2017 JAC offense: 25.1 PPG (9th), 163.0 rushing yds/gm (1st), 214.4 passing yds/gm (28th), 14 sacks allowed (T-6th), 11 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 CLE offense: 15.9 PPG (31st), 106.9 rushing yds/gm (17th), 224.3 passing yds/gm (24th), 27 sacks allowed (24th), 23 turnovers (32nd)
•2017 JAC defense: 14.9 PPG allowed (1st), 120.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (25th), 189.4 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 35 sacks (1st), 18 turnovers (T-2nd)
•2017 CLE defense: 26.7 PPG allowed (30th), 86.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (4th), 242.7 passing yds/gm allowed (16th), 20 sacks (T-18th), 10 turnovers (24th)
•Key injuries, JAC: RB Leonard Fournette (ankle, questionable), WR Allen Hurns (ankle, out); CLE: CB Jamar Taylor (ankle, questionable)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: JAC, second against WR1s (minus 52.8 percent DVOA); CLE, 32nd against WR1s (plus 48.2 percent DVOA), second against WR2s (minus 41.4 percent), 31st against TEs (plus 34.7 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: 20 mph wind, 23 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Fournette gets held out due to the weather conditions, and Yeldon leads the Jags backfield with 50 yards and a TD. Blake Bortles throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Marqise Lee. Isaiah Crowell rumbles for 80 yards and a score, but Kizer throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off three times, one of which gets returned by Tashuan Gipson for a pick-six. Jaguars, 24-10

Baltimore at Green Bay (+2), 38.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: While fantasy GMs anxiously wait and see whether Danny Woodhead will come IR this week, it's hard to imagine a 32-year-old scatback is going to be the savior of the league's worst passing offense. Brett Hundley has looked a little more settled since the Packers' bye, and while he isn't been spectacular, a 7.3 YPA, 69.8 percent completion rate and zero INTs over the last two games might be enough to keep the team afloat in the NFC playoff chase if he can keep it up until Aaron Rodgers makes his inevitable miraculous comeback.

The Skinny:
•2017 BAL offense: 21.1 PPG (18th), 120.9 rushing yds/gm (10th), 180.3 passing yds/gm (32nd), 19 sacks allowed (12th), 14 turnovers (T-21st)
•2017 GB offense: 22.7 PPG (14th), 105.4 rushing yds/gm (19th), 231.8 passing yds/gm (20th), 30 sacks allowed (T-27th), nine turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 BAL defense: 19.0 PPG allowed (8th), 125.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 200.6 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 22 sacks (T-16th), 18 turnovers (T-2nd)
•2017 GB defense: 23.0 PPG allowed (18th), 111.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 257.7 passing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 18 sacks (25th), 15 turnovers (T-8th)
•Joe Flacco career stats versus GB, two games: 0-2, 50.0 percent completion rate, 3:3 TD:INT, 6.8 YPA, 68.7 QB rating.
•Key injuries, BAL: LT Ronnie Stanley (doubtful, concussion), CB Jimmy Smith (Achilles, questionable); GB: RB Aaron Jones (knee, out), RB Ty Montgomery (ribs, doubtful), OLB Nick Perry (foot, questionable), S Morgan Burnett (groin, questionable)
•Weather forecast: clear, 15 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Alex Collins scampers for 60 yards and his first TD of the season, while Javorius Allen adds 70 combined yards. Flacco throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Jeremy Maclin. Jamaal Williams gets the start in the backfield for GB and manages 70 yards, but Devante Mays scores a short touchdown. Hundley throws for 220 yards and a TD to Lance Kendricks while running in another score. Packers, 21-20

Arizona at Houston (PK), 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It's fitting that the Why Haven't Either Of These Teams Signed Colin Kaepernick Again Bowl is a pick 'em, really. Drew Stanton's gimpy knee opens the door for Blaine Gabbert to get the start for the Cards, and if the 2015 version of Gabbert shows up instead of the inferior 2016 model, he might well keep the job for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Tom Savage managed to complete half his passes and get his YPA above 6.0 last week, which for him counts as a significant accomplishment.

The Skinny:
•2017 ARI offense: 17.2 PPG (27th), 71.7 rushing yds/gm (31st), 279.8 passing yds/gm (3rd), 26 sacks allowed (23rd), 14 turnovers (T-21st)
•2017 HOU offense: 26.2 PPG (6th), 127.9 rushing yds/gm (6th), 244.6 passing yds/gm (17th), 31 sacks allowed (29th), 17 turnovers (T-29th)
•2017 ARI defense: 24.8 PPG allowed (24th), 97.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 260.8 passing yds/gm allowed (24th), 23 sacks (T-14th), nine turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 HOU defense: 26.8 PPG allowed (31st), 96.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (7th), 269.9 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), 23 sacks (T-14th), 12 turnovers (T-16th)
•Key injuries, ARI: QB Drew Stanton (knee, questionable), WR John Brown (back, questionable); HOU: WR Will Fuller (ribs, out)
•Blaine Gabbert career stats vs. HOU, four games (three starts): 0-4, 40.0 percent completion rate, 77.5 passing yds/gm, 2:3 TD:INT, 3.9 YPA, 44.3 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Adrian Peterson manages 60 yards. Gabbert throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Larry Fitzgerald. Lamar Miller rushes for a season-high 100 yards and a touchdown, while Savage throws for a season-high 240 yards and a score to DeAndre Hopkins, although he also throws a pick-six to Tyrann Mathieu to make things interesting. Texans, 20-17

Tampa Bay (+1) at Miami, 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: This is the makeup contest for Week 1's washout, although Tampa probably wishes they'd been able to get that one in, with Jameis Winston still nursing a shoulder injury that will keep him out again. The Bucs' pass defense remains atrocious, but it remains to be seen whether Jay Cutler can be bothered to take advantage of it or not. At least Kenyan Drake is proving he's Miami's best option in the backfield, although as yet that may not translate into more touches, because of reasons.

The Skinny:
•2017 TB offense: 19.2 PPG (22nd), 82.8 rushing yds/gm (28th), 273.9 passing yds/gm (5th), 18 sacks allowed (T-10th), 14 turnovers (T-21st)
•2017 MIA offense: 15.2 PPG (32nd), 80.1 rushing yds/gm (30th), 209.2 passing yds/gm (29th), 17 sacks allowed (9th), 12 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 TB defense: 23.1 PPG allowed (T-19th), 109.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 276.8 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), 14 sacks (T-28th), 14 turnovers (T-10th)
•2017 MIA defense: 24.9 PPG allowed (25th), 116.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 235.7 passing yds/gm allowed (13th), 16 sacks (T-26th), eight turnovers (T-28th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: TB, 31st against other WRs (plus 39.1 percent DVOA); MIA, 31st against WR2s (plus 47.3 percent DVOA), 30th against other WRs (plus 32.7 percent DVOA)
•Cutler career stats against TB, five games: 4-1, 62.0 percent completion rate, 184.2 passing yds/gm, 5:4 TD:INT, 6.1 YPA, 79.3 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Doug Martin runs for 70 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for 250 yards and TDs to Mike Evans and Cameron Brate. Drake picks up 100 combined yards and a score, while Damien Williams adds 50 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Cutler throws for 200 yards and a second TD to Jarvis Landry. Dolphins, 27-17

L.A. Rams (+2.5) at Minnesota, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: So, let's talk about Robert Woods for a second. The dude's come out of seemingly nowhere to post back-to-back two-TD performances, but despite flying under the radar until now he's seen at least five targets every game since Week 3 and will set a new personal high if he hauls in at least 78 receiving yards this week. He had a little trouble staying healthy in Buffalo, but for the most part his lack of production was due to the lackluster passing game around him rather than any failing on his part, and it's not like the various coaching staffs he played for while in upstate New York tried very hard to involve their 2013 second-round pick. In terms of his physical attributes, he's reminiscent of Doug Baldwin, and what he lacks in elite size or speed he makes up for with quickness in space and smooth routes. In short, just as Baldwin's breakout in the second half of 2015 turned out not to be a fluke, it's very possible Woods is the real deal. For all his success so far in 2017, Jared Goff hasn't had a real No. 1 receiver he could count on. He may have one now. The Vikings, of course, have their own breakout star at WR in Adam Thielen, who's stepped it up over the last month after their previous breakout star at WR, Stefon Diggs, got banged up. There's a lot of breakout stars at WR in this game, is what I'm saying.

The Skinny:
•2017 LAR offense: 32.9 PPG (1st), 128.8 rushing yds/gm (5th), 270.1 passing yds/gm (8th), 13 sacks allowed (5th), 12 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 MIN offense: 24.1 PPG (10th), 118.0 rushing yds/gm (11th), 255.1 passing yds/gm (13th), 10 sacks allowed (2nd), 10 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 LAR defense: 18.0 PPG allowed (T-3rd), 118.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (24th), 223.3 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), 28 sacks (T-5th), 19 turnovers (1st)
•2017 MIN defense: 18.3 PPG allowed (T-5th), 81.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 233.8 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 25 sacks (T-10th), 11 turnovers (T-20th)
•Key injuries: MIN, DE Everson Griffen (foot, questionable), S Andrew Sendejo (groin/hamstring, out), DE Brian Robison (back, questionable)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Todd Gurley gains 110 combined yards and a TD. Goff throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Woods and Cooper Kupp, while Pharoh Cooper returns a kickoff for another score. Jerick McKinnon scampers for 80 combined yards and a touchdown, with Latavius Murray also scoring. Case Keenum throws for 240 yards and a TD to Diggs. Rams, 31-24

Kansas City at N.Y. Giants (+10.5), 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: I think it's safe to say the Giants can't be trusted to turn this thing around, and the "q" word is being tossed around liberally in regard to the team that just handed the Niners their first win of the year:

After discussing this with some of the preeminent quit-ologists in the country, here's this week's NFL Quit Index:1. Giants (last week, 1 - if there was a QI last week)2. Browns (4)3. Dolphins (NR)4. Bucs (2)5. Bengals (3)

— Jeff Erickson (@Jeff_Erickson) November 16, 2017

The Skinny:
•2017 KC offense: 28.1 PPG (5th), 116.7 rushing yds/gm (12th), 271.6 passing yds/gm (7th), 24 sacks allowed (T-19th), four turnovers (1st)
•2017 NYG offense: 16.7 PPG (T-28th), 89.8 rushing yds/gm (25th), 232.6 passing yds/gm (19th), 22 sacks allowed (T-14th), 11 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 KC defense: 23.1 PPG allowed (T-19th), 131.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 270.4 passing yds/gm allowed (28th), 19 sacks (T-22nd), 13 turnovers (T-14th)
•2017 NYG defense: 26.4 PPG allowed (28th), 132.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (30th), 275.9 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 13 sacks (T-31st), nine turnovers (T-25th)
•Andy Reid teams after bye weeks: 16-2, 3-1 in KC
•Key injuries, KC: OLB Dee Ford (back, out), OLB Tamba Hali (knee, out); NYG: WR Sterling Shepard (illness, questionable), DT Damon Harrison (ankle, questionable), LB B.J. Goodson (ankle, out)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 18 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kareem Hunt bounces back with 90 yards and a TD. Alex Smith throws for 260 yards and three touchdowns, two to Travis Kelce and one to Demarcus Robinson, while running one in as well. Orleans Darkwa picks up 60 yards. Eli Manning throws for 270 yards and a TD to Shepard but gets picked off twice. Chiefs, 38-10

Washington (+8) at New Orleans, 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Looking back, Washington's schedule has been brutal so far. Their five losses have been to teams with a combined record of 26-10 (having dropped both games against the Eagles), while they've got wins over the 7-2 Rams and 6-3 Seahawks to their credit. Their reward for all their hard work and gumption? A road tilt against arguably the hottest team in football. The Saints' dismantling of the Bills in Buffalo, outside the comforts of the Superdome, marked them as For Real and a squad not just in serious contention for a playoff berth but a first-round bye, and it must warm the cockles of all the grumpy old-school fans to see them doing it in large part because of the their defense and backfield, not because Drew Brees is slinging it around like crazy.

The Skinny:
•2017 WAS offense: 23.0 PPG (12th), 96.7 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 274.9 passing yds/gm (4th), 23 sacks allowed (T-16th), 15 turnovers (24th)
•2017 NO offense: 29.8 PPG (3rd), 142.2 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 266.4 passing yds/gm (9th), eight sacks allowed (1st), 10 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 WAS defense: 25.8 PPG allowed (26th), 109.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (13th), 250.7 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), 22 sacks (T-16th), 14 turnovers (T-10th)
•2017 NO defense: 18.3 PPG allowed (T-5th), 110.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (16th), 219.3 passing yds/gm allowed (8th), 25 sacks (T-10th), 13 turnovers (T-14th)
•Brees career stats versus WAS, six games: 2-4, 58.6 percent completion rate, 267.5 passing yds/gm, 8:11 TD:INT, 6.6 YPA, 70.5 QB rating.
•Key injuries, WAS: RB Rob Kelley (ankle, IR), TE Jordan Reed (hamstring, out), LB Zach Brown (Achilles, questionable), S DeAngelo Hall (knee, questionable); NO: S Kenny Vaccaro (groin, questionable)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Samaje Perine runs for 60 yards and a score, while Chris Thompson adds 70 combined yards and a receiving TD. Kirk Cousins throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Jamison Crowder. Mark Ingram bangs out 90 yards, but Alvin Kamara picks up 100 combined yards and two receiving TDs. Brees throws for 250 yards and an extra touchdown to Coby Fleener. Saints, 27-20

Buffalo (+4) at L.A. Chargers, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: On the one hand, it's weird that a team would switch QBs when they would be in the playoffs if the season had ended last week. On the other hand, watching the Saints come marching into Orchard Park and lay a whupping on the home squad has a way of forcing the coaching staff to re-evaluate things. Rookie Nathan Peterman will make his first career NFL start in this one, and the fifth-round pick will get thrown right into the deep end of the ocean against sharks like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The Bolts may have their own re-evaluating to do after Austin Ekeler thoroughly out-played Melvin Gordon last week, but for now the status quo should be intact in their backfield, despite Gordon's perennially sub-4.0 YPC.

The Skinny:
•2017 BUF offense: 20.4 PPG (20th), 111.6 rushing yds/gm (15th), 195.9 passing yds/gm (30th), 28 sacks allowed (T-25th), seven turnovers (3rd)
•2017 LAC offense: 18.6 PPG (23rd), 88.7 rushing yds/gm (26th), 251.4 passing yds/gm (14th), 11 sacks allowed (T-3rd), 10 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 BUF defense: 21.8 PPG allowed (15th), 117.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 251.7 passing yds/gm allowed (20th), 14 sacks (T-28th), 18 turnovers (T-2nd)
•2017 LAC defense: 19.1 PPG allowed (9th), 135.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 228.3 passing yds/gm allowed (11th), 29 sacks (T-2nd), 11 turnovers (T-20th)
•Philip Rivers career stats versus BUF, five games: 4-1, 69.8 percent completion rate, 172.8 passing yds/gm, 8:1 TD:INT, 7.4 YPA, 110.7 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: LeSean McCoy gains 70 combined yards and a TD. Peterman struggles, throwing for under 200 yards while getting picked off twice and sacked six times. Gordon picks up 60 yards and a touchdown, while Ekeler adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Rivers throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Keenan Allen. Chargers, 27-10

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Denver, 39.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: It's hard to tell which of these 3-6 teams is in worse shape coming into this week. Almost nothing has gone right for the Bengals this season, but at least they have one more game against the Browns. The Broncos, meanwhile, have dropped five straight after a promising start to the campaign and would need an awfully dramatic turnaround to get back in playoff contention. Brock Osweiler remain inexplicably under center despite nearly killing a guy last week, but it's easy to see why Denver's coaching staff would be reluctant to give Paxton Lynch a chance given the struggles of all the other second-year QBs around the league, like Carson Wentz and Jared Goff and Dak Prescott. Ahem.

The Skinny:
•2017 CIN offense: 16.6 PPG (30th), 70.1 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 222.7 passing yds/gm (25th), 25 sacks allowed (22nd), 17 turnovers (T-29th)
•2017 DEN offense: 18.4 PPG (24th), 113.0 rushing yds/gm (14th), 235.1 passing yds/gm (18th), 28 sacks allowed (T-25th), 21 turnovers (31st)
•2017 CIN defense: 20.2 PPG allowed (12th), 123.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 214.7 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), 26 sacks (T-7th), eight turnovers (T-28th)
•2017 DEN defense: 26.6 PPG allowed (29th), 89.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 215.8 passing yds/gm allowed (6th), 20 sacks (T-18th), seven turnovers (31st)
•Andy Dalton career stats versus DEN, four games: 1-3, 65.5 percent completion rate, 245.8 passing yds/gm, 5:3 TD:INT, 6.8 YPA, 89.1 QB rating.
•Key injuries, CIN: WR Brandon LaFell (knee, questionable), CB Adam Jones (concussion, out), CB William Jackson III (toe, questionable), LB Kevin Minter (elbow, out)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Joe Mixon picks up 50 yards. Dalton throws for 210 yards and a TD to Tyler Kroft. C.J. Anderson runs for 70 yards and a touchdown. Osweiler throws for less than 200 yards but does find Emmanuel Sanders in the end zone. Broncos, 17-13

New England vs Oakland (+7) at Mexico City, 54.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: So clearly Tom Brady paid off the NFL's schedule-makers, because the Patriots got to prep for their game at Estadio Azteca (7,200 feet above sea level) with one in Denver the week before, while the Raiders were playing in Miami at Hard Rock Stadium (nine feet above sea level). We can call this one ElevateGate! Just as troublesome for Oakland is the fact that these two defenses are headed in opposite directions. The Raiders have allowed almost 30 points a game over their last three, while the Pats haven't coughed up more than 17 in their last five.

The Skinny:
•2017 NE offense: 28.6 PPG (4th), 107.9 rushing yds/gm (16th), 316.0 passing yds/gm (1st), 22 sacks allowed (T-14th), five turnovers (2nd)
•2017 OAK offense: 21.8 PPG (16th), 87.6 rushing yds/gm (27th), 246.6 passing yds/gm (16th), 14 sacks allowed (T-6th), 13 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 NE defense: 21.7 PPG allowed (14th), 121.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 299.4 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 16 sacks (T-26th), 11 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 OAK defense: 23.8 PPG allowed (23rd), 116.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 252.7 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), 13 sacks (T-31st), six turnovers (32nd)
•Brady career stats versus OAK, four games: 3-1, 60.7 percent completion rate, 234.5 passing yds/gm, 5:0 TD:INT, 6.9 YPA, 94.0 QB rating.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: NE, 30th against WR1s (plus 36.1 percent DVOA); OAK, 31st against WR1s (plus 41.3 percent DVOA), 30th against TEs (plus 26.0 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 15 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: James White leads the Pats backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Dion Lewis also scores. Brady throws for 340 yards and three more touchdowns, hitting Rob Gronkowski twice and Brandon Cooks once, with Gronk hauling in 120 yards. Marshawn Lynch bangs out 60 yards and a score. Derek Carr throws for 320 yards and TDs to Amari Cooper and Jalen Richard, but it's not enough. Patriots, 38-24

Philadelphia at Dallas (+4), 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Eagles just keep rolling, and the last time anyone even kept within 10 points of them was back in Week 6, a Thursday road game in Carolina, and now they get to face their biggest division rival at a time when they are at their weakest. For all the focus on how the Cowboys would be impacted by the loss of Ezekiel Elliott, turns out he's not the most indispensable player on the team, and likely not even in the top three. Dallas has lost all three of their games this season in which Sean Lee wasn't on the field or left early, giving up over 32 points a game in those contests, while the various turnstiles the team had to use at left tackle instead of Tyron Smith last week made Adrian Clayborn look like a cross between J.J. Watt and Derrick Thomas. Smith, at least, hasn't officially been ruled out yet for Sunday, but he's looking very iffy, which must have the likes of Brandon Graham checking their contract to see what performance bonuses they might be able to meet in one afternoon.

The Skinny:
•2017 PHI offense: 31.4 PPG (2nd), 136.8 rushing yds/gm (4th), 255.2 passing yds/gm (12th), 24 sacks allowed (T-19th), 10 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 DAL offense: 25.9 PPG (8th), 143.6 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 221.8 passing yds/gm (26th), 18 sacks allowed (T-10th), 10 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 PHI defense: 19.9 PPG allowed (T-10th), 66.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 268.0 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), 25 sacks (T-10th), 16 turnovers (7th)
•2017 DAL defense: 22.8 PPG allowed (17th), 104.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (12th), 247.6 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 28 sacks (T-5th), 12 turnovers (T-16th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DAL, average score DAL 25-PHI 24, average margin of victory 11 points
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Jay Ajayi explodes for 140 yards and two TDs. Carson Wentz throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor. Alfred Morris scratches out 40 yards. Dak Prescott throws for 270 yards and TDs to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Eagles, 31-20

Tennessee (+7) at Pittsburgh, 44.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The Titans have won four consecutive games to keep pace with the Jaguars in the AFC South, but they haven't exactly been tested – the four wins have come against the Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals, who are a combined 10-27. Then again, Marcus Mariota looked healthier last week than he has since early October, running for a season-high 51 yards, and Corey Davis might be ready to turn into the deep threat the offense needs. The Steelers have also reeled off four consecutive victories and basically have the AFC North locked up already given their mediocre-at-best competition, but they've done it on the strength of their young secondary and pass rush, not via Ben Roethlisberger's arm or Le'Veon Bell's legs. If the offense's level of play rises to meet the defense, they may well be the team to beat in the conference – not the Patriots or Chiefs.

The Skinny:
•2017 TEN offense: 22.8 PPG (13th), 124.8 rushing yds/gm (8th), 216.1 passing yds/gm (27th), 20 sacks allowed (13th), 13 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 PIT offense: 20.8 PPG (19th), 106.6 rushing yds/gm (18th), 260.2 passing yds/gm (11th), 11 sacks allowed (T-3rd), 13 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 TEN defense: 23.7 PPG allowed (22nd), 91.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 246.9 passing yds/gm allowed (17th), 14 sacks (T-28th), 14 turnovers (T-10th)
•2017 PIT defense: 16.4 PPG allowed (2nd), 102.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (11th), 205.7 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 29 sacks (T-2nd), 12 turnovers (T-16th)
•Roetlisberger career stats vs TEN, seven games: 4-3, 67.7 percent completion rate, 271.3 passing yds/gm, 13:8 TD:INT, 8.2 YPA, 96.9 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: overcast, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: DeMarco Murray gains 60 combined yards, with Derrick Henry adding 50 yards and a TD. Mariota throws for 230 yards but gets held out of the end zone. Bell piles up 130 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Roethlisberger throws for 260 yards and a second score to Antonio Brown. Steelers, 24-16

Last week's record: 12-2, 6-7-1 ATS, 5-8 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 90-56, 63-77-6 ATS, 69-74-3 o/u o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS