NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 10

Buffalo (+2.5) at N.Y. Jets - Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST

Comments: Welcome to the first leg of the Rex Ryan Cup, with both teams coming off wins that snapped two-game losing streaks. Tyrod Taylor returned from his knee injury last week and attempted only 12 passes, but that will happen when you have two guys rushing for 100 yards each behind you. Eight of those 12 passes went Sammy Watkins' way, though, as Watkins returned from his own ankle injury, and that's when things get really strange, because Watkins accounted for 92.8 percent of Taylor's passing yards on the day (168 of 181, to be precise). Considering that he'll get Darrelle Revis on Thursday, and that performance more than doubled what Watkins had managed in his previous four games combined, don't expect anything close to a repeat. ... The Jets rank seventh in the league at 3.8 yards per carry and have only allowed two rushing touchdowns all year. LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams might have some trouble rushing for 100 yards between them this week. On the other hand, the Bills' defense has been almost as good against the run, ranking 10th with a 3.9 YPC and giving up six rushing TDs, so Chris Ivory's not much better off. His health is probably a bigger issue for him than Buffalo's front seven, though. Over his last three games, as he's played through a hamstring issue, Ivory's managed all of 1.5 yards per carry. He's chipped in through the air (eight catches for 58 yards) and scored three times over that stretch, salvaging his fantasy value, but he's clearly not 100 percent healthy. ... On that front, Ivory fits right in with the rest of the Jets' offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick (non-throwing thumb) might go for surgery immediately after this game in the hope of being ready for Week 11, Brandon Marshall (toe and ankle) is playing through injuries to both lower limbs and Eric Decker (knee) isn't at full strength, either. Decker, remarkably, has scored in six of the seven games he's played this season, and was even fairly productive when Geno Smith was under center, which has continued his trend of being QB-proof throughout his career (hat tip to our own Davis Mattek for that nugget. Note that Decker's 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt with Tim Tebow doesn't disprove the theory that Decker is QB-proof, since, let's be honest, Tebow was no more a quarterback than Ronnie Brown was when the Dolphins were heavily into the wildcat.)

Predictions: McCoy manages 70 combined yards, while Williams pounds in a short TD. Taylor throws for less than 200 yards and scrambles for another 50, but does hit Charles Clay for a touchdown. Ivory manages 50 combined yards and a score, while Fitzpatrick throws for 260 yards and TDs to Decker and Jeremy Kerley. Jets, 24-20

Detroit (+11.5) at Green Bay - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: I try not to let emotions cloud my judgment on these write-ups, but my heart can't help but go out to the Lions and their fans. Just one win on the season, and now they have to face a motivated Aaron Rodgers after he's lost two games in a row for the first time since 2010, in a stadium they haven't won in since 1991. That's not a typo. Detroit has not won a game at Lambeau Field since Dec. 15, 1991, when Erik Kramer beat Mike Tomczak with some help from Barry Sanders. Remember the end of 1991? The Democrats were trying to find a decent candidate to run against the seemingly unbeatable George H.W. Bush. "Hook" topped "The Last Boy Scout" at the box office. Michael Jackson was back with Black Or White and Mark Wahlberg was still Marky Mark. And, oh yeah, 11 current Lions players hadn't even been born yet. I guess the Packers' little losing streak gives them some shred of hope. ... Did I mention the Lions have arguably the worst pass defense in the league, allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt (32nd), a 73.1 percent completion rate (32nd, and by almost three percent over the next-worst Bucs) and a 111.1 QB rating (somehow only 31st, so thanks, Saints!)? Did I mention that Rodgers is probably in a bad mood? ... If Detroit can do damage on the ground against a Packers defense allowing more than 125 rushing yards a game (28th in the league) and keep Rodgers on the sideline, they might have a chance. Unfortunately, their backfield is a mess. Ameer Abdullah was supposed to be the solution after being a second-round pick, but he saw just one carry last game and was mostly relegated to kickoff-return duties. Joique Bell looks like he might be healthy again, managing a 7.7 YPC the last two games, but a 10-carry sample isn't what you'd call definitive. And while Theo Riddick remains useful as a receiver, averaging five catches on seven targets for 43.5 yards a game this season, that's not exactly the kind of ground-and-pound attack the Lions will need to pull the upset.

Predictions: Bell leads the Lions' backfield with his best game of the season, rushing for 80 yards and a TD. Matthew Stafford throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Calvin Johnson, but he also gets picked off twice. James Starks does well in his first start, gaining 130 combined yards and scoring twice. Rodgers is deadly, throwing for an efficient 260 yards and four TDs, two to Randall Cobb and one each to Davante Adams and Richard Rodgers. Packers, 42-17

Dallas (+1.5) at Tampa Bay - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The utter collapse of the Cowboys without Tony Romo under center has been almost breathtaking. Every time it looks like they might be putting it together, someone throws a pick-six or the defense can't buy a stop. This is a team that's managed to lose two overtime games without even touching the ball, which is an astounding feat of ineptitude given the new OT rules. The hilarious part, though, is that they're somehow not out of the NFC East race yet. Dallas is just two losses behind the Giants and Eagles, and every team has a .500 record against their division rivals, meaning there's still time for Romo to return and play hero. Matt Cassel will have to hold down the fort for at least one more game, but after his solid performance last week and Dez Bryant doing Dez Bryant things again (one and off the field), that's not as scary a proposition as it was a couple weeks ago. ... One thing the Cowboys have been doing well is running the ball. Darren McFadden has been doing a credible 2014 DeMarco Murray impression the last three games, racking up 333 rushing yards with a 4.4 YPC. Tampa's been fairly stout against the run (fourth in YPC against at 3.7, but only 15th in rushing yards allowed per game at 108.4), but with the Cowboys offensive line firing on all cylinders, McFadden should have some holes. ... In the other huddle, Jameis Winston is having a typically up-and-down rookie season. There are things he's doing well (a 7.7 YPA, for instance, which sneaks him into the top 10 between Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers) and things he's doing not so well (his 57.7 completion percentage is 28th among qualifiers, between Nick Foles and Blake Bortles). Not having healthy receiving options hasn't helped, as Vincent Jackson likely will miss his third straight game with a knee injury, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins has missed six games and counting with a shoulder issue. When everybody in the stadium knows your next pass is going to Mike Evans, it's understandable that the coverage might be a bit tighter than normal.

Predictions: McFadden gains 100 combined yards and scores. Cassel throws for 270 yards and TDs to Bryant and Terrance Williams. Doug Martin runs for 80 yards and a touchdown, while Winston throws for 230 yards and TDs to Evans and Charles Sims. The game is decided on a last-second Dan Bailey field goal. Cowboys, 27-24

Carolina at Tennessee (+5.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Are the Titans poised to make a run in the AFC South? Don't laugh. Last week's upset over the Saints leaves them just one loss back of the Colts in the standings, and with Andrew Luck out for a while, Marcus Mariota has a legit claim to being the best starting QB in the division. Discount the fluky ricochet TD to Delanie Walker if you want, but he still threw three others and more than 300 yards in New Orleans without it. The rookie now has two four-TD games in his first six NFL starts, and his 65.5 percent completion rate and 8.1 YPA would be good for a veteran, much less a kid who was supposed to need an adjustment period coming out of Oregon's spread offense. No wonder Chip Kelly panicked and made a bad trade for Sam Bradford when he couldn't land Mariota on draft day. ... Not that Tennessee is going to work any miracles in Carolina. The Panthers are the only undefeated team left in the NFC, and their pass defense (tops in completion percentage allowed at 56.6, tied for first with the Broncos in YPA against at 5.9, fourth in sacks with 25) just got done stifling Aaron Rodgers for three-plus quarters before taking their foot off the pedal and letting Rodgers make it close. Mariota may be precocious, but asking him to win this one, especially considering his lackluster supporting cast, is asking too much. ... This year's rookie wide receiver class has consisted of Amari Cooper and, well, that's been about it, but Devin Funchess could change that in the second half. He saw just four targets against the Packers but turned them into three catches for 71 yards and his first NFL touchdown, and it's not like Cam Newton has had much to work with through the air other than Greg Olsen. If Funchess starts earning Newton's trust and getting more looks, he's still got time to make an impact.

Predictions:Antonio Andrews continues to stabilize the backfield, rushing for 70 yards. Mariota throws for 210 yards and a TD to Dexter McCluster. Jonathan Stewart bangs out 100 yards and a touchdown, while Newton runs for 40 yards and a score of his own. He also throws for 250 yards and a TD to Olsen. Panthers, 27-10

Chicago (+7) at St. Louis - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Todd Gurley turned out to be human after all, rushing for just 89 yards and a 3.7 YPC in last week's loss to the Vikings. He's still scored four TDs in his last three games and is averaging 147.6 combined yards in his five starts, though, so anyone with shares in him can probably live with the occasional week when he only manages high double digits. The Bears allow 4.6 YPC and 121.6 rushing yards a game, though curiously only two rushing TDs on the season, so even against the eight-man boxes he'll likely face Sunday, and for the foreseeable future, Gurley is in a good spot to top 100 yards again and then some. ... It would help if the rookie got any kind of support from Nick Foles in the passing game. The former Eagle has thrown for less than 200 yards in seven consecutive games, which is mind-bogglingly bad. Even Brandon Weeden managed to top 200 yards this season. Twice! Foles has done a good job taking care of the ball, throwing INTs in just two of his eight starts, and he actually does occasionally stretch the field (incredibly, he's thrown at least one pass of 40 yards or better in seven games), but his inability to do it consistently enough to sustain a drive has hamstrung the offense. The Rams average 19.1 points a game this season, third-fewest in the league, and signing Wes Welker isn't going to move the needle much. ... Chicago's offense continues to be held together with Band-Aids, as Matt Forte (knee), Alshon Jeffery (groin) and Eddie Royal (knee) remain hobbled. Royal's definitely out Sunday, but while Jeffery should play, they really have no reason to rush Forte back. Jeremy Langford looked great Monday against the Chargers, and while the usual "against the Chargers" caveats apply to that performance, with Forte headed for free agency in the offseason, the team might as well see what the rookie can do against a real defense.

Predictions: Langford starts and gains 80 combined yards and catches a TD. Jay Cutler throws for 240 yards and a second score to Martellus Bennett. Gurley gallops for 90 yards and a touchdown, while Foles comes through with a decent performance, throwing for 260 yards and TDs to Kenny Britt and Lance Kendricks. Rams, 24-20

New Orleans at Washington (+1) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: You had to know it was too good to be true. After winning three straight, the Saints lost at home to the lowly Titans last week, as the defense allowed a rookie QB to throw four TDs en route to 34 points. Rob Ryan's unit has yet to hold a single opponent to less than 20 points this season, averaging 29.5 points allowed on the road. Even that 20-spot was by a Cowboys team without Dez Bryant or a reliable starting running back, and with Brandon Weeden at the helm. Kirk Cousins may not be great, but he's not Brandon Weeden, and now that DeSean Jackson has had a game to shake off some of the rust that built up while he was out, Cousins has a full complement of weapons at his disposal. There could be fireworks on the Potomac this weekend. ... While Washington's passing game is trending up, the same can't be said for the ground attack. Based on snap count, Matt Jones seems to be the starter, but neither he nor Alfred Morris have done anything special since they traded 100-yard performances in the first two games of the season. The Saints' run defense isn't much better than the pass defense, though, ranking 28th in YPC allowed (4.7), so if Jay Gruden decides to commit to the run, one or the other of them could pop. ... As bad as the Saints' defense has been, Washington's been nearly as porous, ranking in the bottom 10 in yards per pass attempt (7.7) and QB rating against (97.6) while coming in two spots behind New Orleans in yards per carry allowed at 4.8. Mark Ingram looks like he'll get more work with Khiry Robinson out, as no other back saw a bump in their workload last week, so the only thing stopping this game from being another crazy shootout might be both teams having success on the ground rather than in the air.

Predictions: Ingram pounds out 90 yards and a touchdown. Drew Brees throws for 280 yards and three TDs, one each to Willie Snead, Ben Watson and Marques Colston. Morris comes off the scrap heap to run for 80 yards and a score, while Jones also gets into the end zone. Cousins responds with 300 yards and three TDs, hitting Jordan Reed twice and Jackson once. Washington, 35-31

Miami (+6.5) at Philadelphia - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Dan Campbell honeymoon seems to have worn off for the Dolphins, who got spanked by the Patriots and Bills the last two weeks after starting off his coaching tenure 2-0. At least Lamar Miller remains happy with the new regime. Under Joe Philbin this season, he averaged less than 12 touches and 55 combined yards a game and didn't score. With Campbell at the helm, he's averaging 17.8 touches, 132.3 combined yards and 1.5 touchdowns a game. The Eagles have been mediocre against the run overall but have only allowed three rushing TDs this season, so Miller's four-game scoring streak could be in jeopardy, even if he racks up some yardage. ... Sadly, I can't find an excuse to keep ragging on Brandon Weeden in this capsule. I can call back to Chip Kelly's terrible trade for Sam Bradford, though. Bradford's thrown for as many TDs the last four games as Marcus Mariota did last week, and yes, Bradford played the Saints during that stretch. His 10:10 TD:INT ratio and 6.6 YPA on the season look more like a rookie's numbers than those of the second overall pick plying his trade in Tennessee. The only thing that makes the deal look palatable is the fact that Nick Foles had been even worse for the Rams. The Dolphins' pass defense has been fairly poor (25th in YPA against at 7.8, tied for seventh most in TD passes allowed at 16), but Bradford's shown no ability in Philadelphia to exploit that kind of matchup. ... Bradford's struggles haven't helped Jordan Matthews live up to his preseason hype, as he's only seen double-digit targets three times in eight games. Last week's numbers were nice, but it's hard to read it as a potential breakout when most of his production came on one overtime play when the man covering him fell down. On the other hand, Football Outsiders rates Miami as the worst defense in the league by DVOA against other teams' top wideout, so if Bradford can remember to look his way more often, Matthews might just repeat that 9-133-1 line after all. By the way, the team that comes in second worst? The Eagles, naturally.

Predictions: Miller gains 90 combined yards. Ryan Tannehill throws for 240 yards and a TD to Jarvis Landry and runs in a second score. DeMarco Murray bangs out 120 combined yards and a touchdown, while Ryan Mathews also picks up 70 rushing yards. Bradford throws for 250 yards and two TDs to Matthews, who tops 100 yards again, but also tosses a pick-six to Brent Grimes. Eagles, 30-27

Cleveland (+4.5) at Pittsburgh - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: He's in, he's out, he's in, he's out. Ben Roethlisberger's return lasted not quite two games before he injured his foot, but he stuck around long enough to help Antonio Brown set some franchise records. Big Ben hasn't officially been ruled out for this one, but with the bye looming in Week 11 it seems highly improbable that he'll play. The last time Landry Jones started in his place, Brown caught six passes for 124 yards, so while he probably won't be setting any more single-game records, the receiver should be in good hands. ... This one's just too obvious. The Browns allow 147.6 rushing yards a game, 4.7 yards a carry and have coughed up nine rushing TDs this year. DeAngelo Williams averages 124.7 rushing yards, 5.5 YPC and has five rushing TDs in his three starts in place of Le'Veon Bell, and the whole thing just feels like a set-up. Reality's just never that predictable. Which is not to say that my paranoia should stop you from using him, of course. ... Much like Roethlisberger, Josh McCown (ribs) is officially questionable but unofficially a risky play with Cleveland on a Week 11 bye. Pittsburgh's pass defense isn't as good as Cinci's, so Johnny Manziel is in a little better spot, but Gary Barnidge (two catches on seven targets for 35 yards last week) remains someone you should probably sit while McCown is out. Dwayne Bowe's brief flicker of relevance probably fades away, though, with Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins set to return from concussions.

Predictions:Duke Johnson leads the Browns' backfield with 60 combined yards, but Isaiah Crowell scores a TD. Manziel throws for 230 yards and hits Hartline for a score. Williams gets held to 80 combined yards, but Jones throws for a career-high 280 yards and touchdowns to Brown and Heath Miller. Steelers, 20-17

Jacksonville (+5.5) at Baltimore - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Blake Bortles is trying really, really hard, you guys. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in each of the last four games, topping 300 passing yards in three of those four, and yet the Jags' only win during that stretch is the fluky victory in London over the Bills. Mind you, his seven picks over that stretch might have a little something to do with that, but at least you can't fault him for being too cautious. (Like, say, Brandon Weeden. Boom, got him again!) Bortles now ranks in the top 10 in attempts, yards and TDs this season, and his high-volume ways aren't likely to change any time soon. In fact, if he starts to develop some chemistry with Julius Thomas to complement the Allens (Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns), he might even become a bit more efficient. Bortles has directed 26 targets Thomas' way the last three games, but the tight end has only hauled in 11 for 96 yards and a touchdown. A Ravens defense that's allowed just 41.5 yards a game to TEs and a single touchdown maybe isn't the best opponent for Thomas to find his groove against, though. ... With Steve Smith done for the year, the big suspense in the Baltimore offense is who Joe Flacco will target. Kamar Aiken went 9-165-1 on 16 targets in Weeks 4 and 5, the two earlier games Smith either missed or left early , so he's probably the top option. Don't overlook Crockett Gillmore though, the second-year tight end who got 19 targets in the three games prior to the Ravens' bye, turning them into 10 catches for 91 yards and a TD. ... Both teams rank in the top five in yards per carry allowed (the Jaguars lead the league at 3.2, while the Ravens are fifth with 3.8) and the bottom seven in QB rating against (the Jags are 26th at 99.9, while the Ravens are 30th at 106.9), so there's a reason I talked more about Bortles and Flacco than T.J. Yeldon and Justin Forsett.

Predictions: Yeldon manages 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Bortles throws for 320 yards and three TDs, with Robinson pulling down one score and 130 yards and Bryan Walters getting the third. He also doesn't throw an INT for only the third time this season. Forsett gains 90 combined yards and scores, while Flacco throws for 360 yards and four touchdowns, two to Aiken and one each to Gillmore and Marlon Brown. Ravens, 38-34

Minnesota (+3) at Oakland - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: Don't look now, but Minnesota is tied with Green Bay on top of the NFC North. After getting humiliated in Week 1 by Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers in a game that seems like it happened a lifetime ago, the Vikings have won six of seven, their only loss coming in Denver. Their formula for success (heavy doses of Adrian Peterson, a stout defense and occasional bombs from Teddy Bridgewater to Stefon Diggs) feels decidedly retro, but it'll face a tough test in Oakland, and not just because Bridgewater is dealing with a concussion. The Vikings' success is in large part a result of keeping the ball out of the end zone (they've allowed just 17.5 points per game, tied for second in the league with the Seahawks), but they've done so against a rather sad collection of offenses. In fact, half their schedule has come against the three lowest-scoring teams in the NFL (the aforementioned Niners, the Rams, and two games against the Lions), and they have yet to face an offense in the top 10. That changes Sunday, as the Raiders rank seventh at 26.6 PPG. It's not quite irresistible force versus immovable object, but we should at least find out whether the Vikings are a real threat to the Packers. ... In addition to Bridgewater's concussion, Minnesota's linebacking corps is all kinds of banged up. Eric Kendricks is still not 100 percent with a rib injury, while Anthony Barr injured his left hand last week. That doesn't bode well for a defense likely to see a lot of Latavius Murray, given the Vikings relative vulnerability on the ground (24th in YPC against at 4.4, and tied for 18th in rushing yards allowed per game at 111.6). That's assuming Murray is cleared from his own concussion, of course. ... Trivia time. Who was the last Oakland wide receiver to top 1,000 yards in a season? Bzzt, time's up. The answer is Randy Moss back in 2005. Now, who were the last Raiders receiving duo to each top 1,000 yards in the same season? Bzzt. The correct answer is Tim Brown and some guy named Jerry Rice in 2001. Basically, it's been a long time since the Raiders' passing game was relevant. Both Amari Cooper (1,306 yards) and Michael Crabtree (1,182 yards) are on pace to reset those franchise clocks. Add Derek Carr on pace for more than 4,000 passing yards and Murray on pace for more than 1,200 rushing yards, and you've got one heck of a dangerous, and fantasy-friendly, attack.

Predictions: Peterson runs for 100 yards for the third straight game. Bridgewater starts but is ineffective, throwing for less than 200 yards with a TD to Kyle Rudolph. Murray scampers for 90 yards and a score, while Carr throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Cooper and Clive Walford. Raiders, 24-13

New England at N.Y. Giants (+7) - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: It's a little weird to see this big a home underdog in a battle of division leaders, but such is the state of the NFC East these days. Not that past performance is a guarantee of future results, but here's a list of the quarterbacks the Giants have beaten this season: Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Cassel and Jameis Winston. Now here's a list of the QBs who have handed them losses: Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and, well, Sam Bradford. Which group do you think Tom Brady belongs in? ... A big part of the problem for the Giants has been their complete lack of a pass rush. They're still the only team in the league stuck in single digits in sacks, and while the return of Jason Pierre-Paul helps, the team still needs to keep an eye on his snaps while he gets back into game shape. The Patriots' rag-tag offensive line has performed well above expectations this year, but Brady is still on pace to be brought down 36 times this year, which would be the third-highest total of his career (he was sacked 40 times in 2013, and 41 times in his first full season as a starter back in 2001). That's not the kind of punishment you like to see your 36-year-old franchise QB take. Whatever chance of an upset the Giants, or anybody else on the Pats' remaining schedule, has, it likely comes from their ability to get to Brady. ... Dion Lewis' season-ending knee injury hurts New England's offense a little, but it also creates an opportunity for someone else. Brandon Bolden got the first crack last week at replacing him as the lightning to LeGarrette Blount's thunder but saw only 10 snaps. He made those snaps count (three catches on four targets for 27 yards and a TD, plus a 12-yard run) but that's about a quarter of the workload Lewis was getting. It's still better than James White, though, who wasn't even active. If you're looking for RB depth, Bolden's worth rolling the dice on, but don't expect anything close to Lewis' production.

Predictions: Blount bulldozes his way to 80 yards and a TD. Brady throws for 280 yards and three scores, two to Rob Gronkowski and one to Brandon LaFell. Shane Vereen leads the Giants' backfield with 70 combined yards and a touchdown, while Eli Manning throws for 260 yards and two TDs, one to Odell Beckham and one to Dwayne Harris. Patriots, 31-27

Kansas City (+6) at Denver - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: The last time these teams met in Week 2, the Broncos scored 31 points, a number they haven't topped since. The Broncos also allowed 24 points, a number only the Colts were able to better in last week's upset. Since that game, Jamaal Charles has now been lost for the year, C.J. Anderson might be back on track, Peyton Manning has added Vernon Davis to his arsenal and the venue has shifted to Denver. That's not a good formula for an upset. If you want a shred of hope for Kansas City, though, cling to the idea that the last three times the Chiefs toppled the Broncos, it came in the second game between them in a season, and two of those wins were in Denver. Mind you, they haven't pulled off that feat since 2011, with the Broncos winning the last seven meetings, and it's hard to imagine Alex Smith cracking this Broncos defense, but stranger things have happened. If you want more than a shred of hope, consider that the Broncos defense will be operating at well below factory specs with DeMarcus Ware (back) and Aqib Talib (suspension) on the sideline, and Emmanuel Sanders (ankle) could miss the game as well. ... Denver ranks second in the league in yards per carry against at 3.5, so despite his success in the two games prior to K.C.'s bye (251 combined yards and two TDs), Charcandrick West likely will have a tough day. Charles did manage to rack up 127 YFS and a score in that Week 2 loss, though, so that little pile of hope shreds that Chiefs fans are building just got a bit bigger. ... Is Demaryius Thomas ever going to score again? Manning's struggles haven't particularly hurt Sanders, but Thomas' value has taken a huge hit due to the evaporation of his red-zone targets. He saw 79 looks inside the 20 the previous three seasons, and 17 targets inside the five, but this year he's seen only seven RZ targets in eight games and just one inside the five. He's still getting a big volume overall, and his 186-target pace would be a career high, but they're mostly coming on wide receiver screens and quick routes in the middle of the field rather than jump balls in the end zone. His streak of three consecutive seasons with double-digit TDs is already a lost cause, but there's no reason to think he's going to see a second-half spike that could salvage his scoring either.

Predictions: West gains 110 combined yards and scores. Smith throws for less than 200 yards but hits Travis Kelce and Albert Wilson for TDs. Anderson leads the Broncos' backfield with 80 rushing yards, while Manning struggles with Sanders out of the lineup, throwing for 230 yards and a touchdown to Bennie Fowler but also two interceptions. Chiefs, 21-16

Arizona (+3) at Seattle - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: Hello, playoff implications. The Cardinals have a two-game bulge on the Seahawks (and the Rams, for that matter) in the NFC West, but a loss would put the Cards at 1-2 in the division and hand the tiebreaker advantage to their pursuers. On the other hand, Seattle probably can't afford a loss, with two other NFC non-division leaders already at six wins. If they fall three games back of both the division title and a wild card with seven games to go, that's an awfully big hole to climb out of. As silly as it is to be thinking about January in November, this could end up being a crucial game once the dust settles on the season. ... Both teams rank in the top eight in yards per carry allowed (Seattle's sixth and Arizona's eighth, both at 3.8 YPC) and yards per pass attempt allowed (Arizona's third at 6.4, and Seattle's sixth at 6.7), which would seem to point to a low-scoring affair that favors the Seahawks. On the other hand, the Cardinals have been en fuego away from home, averaging 34.3 points in four road games. (Of course, three of those games were against the lowly Lions, Bears and Browns.) The Hawks defense has also been coming up short against better opposition, holding the Bears, Lions, 49ers and Tony Romo-less Cowboys to a combined 25 points but allowing the Rams, Packers, Bengals and Panthers to average 28.9 points in their four losses. ... Both teams figure to be at full strength, with John Brown on the mend from a hamstring injury and practicing all week and Marshawn Lynch unlikely to miss any time after suffering a minor abdominal injury during the week.

Predictions:Chris Johnson leads the Cards' backfield with 60 rushing yards and a TD. Carson Palmer has a good day, throwing for 270 yards and touchdowns to Michael Floyd and Darren Fells. Lynch manages 50 rushing yards, while Russell Wilson throws for 220 yards and a TD to Jermaine Kearse and runs in a second score. Cardinals, 24-20

Houston (+10.5) at Cincinnati - Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments:Alfred Blue's return to the starting lineup went about as well as you probably expected before the Texans' bye, as he managed 39 rushing yards and a 2.8 YPC. His surprising five catches for 33 yards made him somewhat useful in PPR leagues, though, and it's not something you can write off as a fluke given the heavy usage Arian Foster saw through the air before he went down (28 targets in four games). Chris Polk arguably has a better skillset as a receiving option, but if Blue can remain at least adequate in that role he'll probably keep his spot as the feature back rather than the Texans turning to a timeshare. The Bengals have been terrible against the run this year (last in the league with a 4.9 YPC against) and not great against pass-catching backs either, so if Houston can keep from falling behind too much, this could be Blue's week to, if not shine, at least sparkle a little. ... If you want an example of a frustrating backfield timeshare, look no further than Cincinnati. The last time either Jeremy Hill or Giovani Bernard topped 100 YFS in a single game was Week 5, and Hill hasn't done it once this season. Bernard's got more yardage overall but his week-to-week output has been more volatile (86 yards last week against the Browns, 34 the week before against the Steelers), while Hill's value has been almost entirely dependent on those rare games where he crosses the goal line (five TDs this season, with all five coming in just two games). Football Outsiders has the Texans ranked as the worst pass defense in the league by DVOA against receiving RBs, so that suggests Bernard is the back to go with this week. Then again, the likely game flow seems to point to a big Bengals lead and lots of clock-killing carries for Hill, and he is overdue for one of those multi-TD games. Aaaargh. ... If Houston does need to mount a big second-half comeback, Brian Hoyer should at least have a full complement of weapons available. Nate Washington seems set to play despite a lingering hip issue, while Cecil Shorts appears over his hamstring injury and ready to rejoin the lineup for the first time since Week 6. DeAndre Hopkins will still command most of Hoyer's attention (not to mention Cinci's secondary) but when he doesn't feel like throwing into triple coverage, he should have other options.

Predictions: Blue gains 80 combined yards and scores. Hoyer throws for 220 yards and TDs to Hopkins and Polk. Both Hill and Bernard show up, with the former rushing for 70 yards and two touchdowns and the latter picking up 90 combined yards and a receiving TD. Andy Dalton throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to A.J. Green. Bengals, 34-24

Last week's record: 6-7, 7-6 ATS
Season to date: 84-48, 69-58-5 ATS