NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 1

Kansas City (+9) at New England, 48.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

The Story: The NFL kicks off the 2017 season with a potential championship game preview matching last year's AFC East and AFC West winners against each other. Both teams suffered big injuries in the preseason – the Chiefs lost projected starting running back Spencer Ware, while the defending Super Bowl-champ Patriots watched Julian Edelman go down – but both also have the depth at those positions to not skip a beat, with rookie Kareem Hunt stepping in for KC and former Saint receiver Brandin Cooks ready to give Tom Brady a deep threat he's lacked in recent years. The game will also feature a clash between arguably the two best tight ends in the game, Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce, both of whom could easily lead their teams in receiving on the night.

The Skinny:

• 2016 NE offense: 27.6 PPG (3rd), 117.0 rushing yds/gm (7th), 278.5 passing yds/gm (5th), 24 sacks allowed (5th), 11 turnovers (T-1st)
• 2016 KC offense: 24.3 PPG (13th), 109.3 rushing yds/gm (15th), 244.6 passing yds/gm (T-21st), 32 sacks allowed (T-11th), 17 turnovers (T-8th)
• 2016 NE defense: 15.6 PPG allowed (1st), 88.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 237.9 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 34 sacks (T-16th), 23 turnovers (T-14th)
• 2016 KC defense: 19.4 PPG allowed (7th), 121.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 247.4 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 28 sacks (28th), 33 turnovers (1st)
• 2016 NE defense vs. tight ends: 4.7 catches/gm (14th), 45.3 yds/gm (9th), 6.4 yds/target (5th), four TDs (T-6th)
• 2016 KC defense vs. tight ends: 4.0 catches/gm (6th), 45.5 yds/gm (10th), 8.1 yds/target (26th), four TDs (T-6th)
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Hunt has a relatively quiet debut, scraping together 70 combined yards. Alex Smith throws for 230 yards and a TD to Kelce, while Tyreek Hill is held to 60 receiving yards but does return a punt for a score to make things interesting. None of New England's backfield options makes a splash, with Rex Burkhead leading the group with 50 rushing yards. Tom Brady throws for 280 yards and three TDs, one to Cooks and two to Gronk, who also pulls in 110 yards. Patriots, 27-20

N.Y. Jets (+9) at Buffalo, 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Would the last vet in the Jets locker room kindly shut off the lights on their way out the door? Eric Decker and Sheldon Richardson were the latest lucky ducks to get out of Tanksville, but the roster isn't completely bereft of talent (yet), especially in the backfield with Matt Forte and Bilal Powell and along the defensive front, so going a perfectly imperfect 0-16 might be easier said than done. The Bills have swapped out Sammy Watkins for Jordan Matthews and cut loose Jonathan Williams, which means their offense will revolve even more heavily around LeSean McCoy. It's been a couple of years since Shady teased 350 touches, but the only thing standing between him and that kind of workload in 2017 is another injury.

The Skinny:

• 2016 NYJ offense: 17.2 PPG (30th), 112.6 rushing yds/gm (12th), 227.8 passing yds/gm (28th), 35 sacks allowed (T-16th), 34 turnovers (31st)
• 2016 BUF offense: 24.9 PPG (T-10th), 164.4 rushing yds/gm (1st), 203.1 passing yds/gm (31st), 46 sacks allowed (29th), 12 turnovers (3rd)
• 2016 NYJ defense: 25.6 PPG allowed (28th), 98.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (11th), 254.8 passing yds/gm allowed (15th), 27 sacks (29th), 14 turnovers (T-28th)
• 2016 BUF defense: 23.6 PPG allowed (T-16th), 133.1 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 239.7 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), 39 sacks (8th), 18 turnovers (T-23rd)
•LeSean McCoy career vs. NYJ, four games: 5.0 YPC, 283 rushing yards, three TDs, 12 catches for 79 yards
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 for Buffalo, average score BUF 28-NYJ 23, average margin of victory 16 points
• Weather forecast: clear, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Matt Forte and Bilal Powell each top 70 combined yards, mostly through the air, but Powell scores the only TD between them. Josh McCown throws for less than 200 yards. McCoy erupts for 180 combined yards and two scores, one each on the ground and through the air. Tyrod Taylor throws for 270 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Jordan Matthews and Andre Holmes. Bills, 31-10

Philadelphia at Washington (+1), 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Eagles seem to be trying to build around Carson Wentz, but none of their skill players – with the arguable exception of Zach Ertz – are what you'd call reliable, which could cause problems for the second-year QB's development. Washington also did some housecleaning with regard to Kirk Cousins' targets, but continuity should be less of an issue for him with Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder and Rob Kelley all returning in significant roles.

The Skinny:

• 2016 PHI offense: 22.9 PPG (16th), 113.3 rushing yds/gm (11th), 237.4 passing yds/gm (24th), 33 sacks allowed (T-13th), 20 turnovers (14th)
• 2016 WAS offense: 24.8 PPG (12th), 106.0 rushing yds/gm (21st), 309.3 passing yds/gm (3rd), 23 sacks allowed (4th), 21 turnovers (15th)
• 2016 PHI defense: 20.7 PPG allowed (12th), 103.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 252.4 passing yds/gm allowed (14th), 34 sacks (T-16th), 26 turnovers (10th)
• 2016 WAS defense: 23.9 PPG allowed (19th), 119.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (24th), 273.9 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), 38 sacks (T-9th), 21 turnovers (T-17th)
•Jordan Reed career vs. PHI, six games: 23 catches on 31 targets for 231 yards and two TDs
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 Washington with five straight wins, average score WAS 28-PHI 23, average margin of victory eight points
• Weather forecast: clear, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Darren Sproles leads the Eagles' backfield mess with 70 combined yards, but LeGarrette Blount vultures a short TD. Wentz throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. Kelley rumbles for 80 yards and a score, while Cousins throws for 320 yards and three TDs, one each to Terrelle Pryor, Josh Doctson and Chris Thompson. Washington, 31-27

Oakland (+2.5) at Tennessee, 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: I'm still somewhat baffled that the Raiders brought Marshawn Lynch out of retirement to be their lead back rather than drafting Dalvin Cook or trading for Isaiah Crowell, given that the rest of their offense is in the key of C-major, but Beast Mode By the Bay could give an already explosive unit a whole new dimension. Latavius Murray's heavy usage in the red zone the last two years gives Clynch ... err, Lynch a great floor for his fantasy value, too, assuming he has anything left in the tank. The Titans keep providing Marcus Mariota with new toys, adding Corey Davis and Eric Decker this offseason, but it's hard to see any of his receivers seeing a huge target volume with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry still providing the engine that drives their offense.

The Skinny:

• 2016 OAK offense: 26.0 PPG (7th), 120.1 rushing yds/gm (6th), 258.6 passing yds/gm (16th), 18 sacks allowed (1st), 14 turnovers (4th)
• 2016 TEN offense: 23.8 PPG (14th), 136.7 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 232.5 passing yds/gm (25th), 28 sacks allowed (T-7th), 18 turnovers (T-11th)
• 2016 OAK defense: 24.1 PPG allowed (20th), 117.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 266.7 passing yds/gm allowed (24th), 25 sacks (32nd), 30 turnovers (2nd)
• 2016 TEN defense: 23.6 PPG allowed (T-16th), 88.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 286.6 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), 40 sacks (T-6th), 18 turnovers (T-23rd)
• Football Outsiders 2016 ranking vs. receiver type, TEN: 30th vs. WR2 (21.7 percent DVOA), 30th vs. RB (36.3 percent DVOA)
• Weather forecast: clear, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Lynch doesn't have an impressive Oakland debut, rushing for 50 yards, but he does score a touchdown. Derek Carr throws for 290 yards and TDs to Michael Crabtree and Jalen Richard. Murray rushes for 110 yards and a score. Mariota throws for 240 yards and hits Decker in the end zone. Raiders, 27-23

Jacksonville (+5.5) at Houston, 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Blake Bortles may be broken beyond repair, but with veteran offseason additions like Calais Campbell and Barry Church joining young studs at all three levels, this was the year the Jaguars became known for their defense instead of their garbage-time offense anyway. Karma says J.J. Watt and the city of Houston deserve a win here – more than one, really – but Tom Savage is not Drew Brees, and these aren't the post-Katrina Saints. This game hitting the over feels impossible, and the betting public seems to agree as the line opened at 42.0 before dropping significantly.

The Skinny:

• 2016 JAC offense: 19.9 PPG (25th), 101.9 rushing yds/gm (22nd), 245.3 passing yds/gm (20th), 34 sacks allowed (15th), 29 turnovers (T-27th)
• 2016 HOU offense: 17.4 PPG (T-28th), 116.2 rushing yds/gm (8th), 213.6 passing yds/gm (29th), 32 sacks allowed (T-11th), 24 turnovers (T-19th)
• 2016 JAC defense: 25.0 PPG allowed (25th), 106.4 rushing yds/g, allowed (19th), 226.7 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 33 sacks (T-19th), 13 turnovers (T-30th)
• 2016 HOU defense: 20.5 PPG allowed (11th), 99.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (12th), 214.0 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 31 sacks (T-24th), 17 turnovers (T-26th)
•Blake Bortles career vs. HOU, six games: 53.4 percent completion rate, 1249 yards, 6:8 TD:INT, 5.3 YPA
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 Houston with six straight wins, average score HOU 25-JAC 18, average margin of victory 10 points
• Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette has a rough debut, rushing for only 50 yards. Bortles throws for 210 yards and a TD to Allen Robinson but gets picked off twice and fumbles twice, one of which Watt returns for a score. Lamar Miller runs for 130 yards and a TD, while Tom Savage throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Braxton Miller.Texans, 24-7

Arizona at Detroit (+2), 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: There's a Magnificent Seven analogy here somewhere with the Cardinals – Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald as the grizzled veteran gunslingers taking one last impossible mission, David Johnson as the young hotshot who thinks he's invincible, etc. – but I can't figure out who the Charles Bronson of the roster is, so I'll drop it. The Lions return basically the same supporting cast that made Matthew Stafford a very rich man, and while there's a very fine line in the NFL between stability and stagnation, I'll still get to make Jim Bob Cooter jokes throughout the year so I'm good with it.

The Skinny:

• 2016 ARI offense: 26.1 PPG (6th), 108.3 rushing yds/gm (18th), 276.6 passing yds/gm (7th), 41 sacks allowed (T-25th), 28 turnovers (26th)
• 2016 DET offense: 21.6 PPG (20th), 81.9 rushing yds/gm (30th), 270.4 passing yds/gm (12th), 37 sacks allowed (T-21st), 15 turnovers (T-5th)
• 2016 ARI defense: 22.6 PPG allowed (14th), 94.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 233.7 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), 48 sacks (1st), 28 turnovers (T-4th)
• 2016 DET defense: 22.4 PPG allowed (13th), 106.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (18th), 258.5 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 26 sacks (30th), 14 turnovers (T-28th)
•Carson Palmer's QB ratings, last five years: 85.3 (2012 OAK), 83.9 (2013 ARI), 95.6 (2014 ARI), 104.6 (2015 ARI), 87.2 (2016 ARI)
•Matthew Stafford's YPAs, last five years: 79.8 (2012), 84.2 (2013), 85.7 (2014), 97.0 (2015), 93.3 (2016)
• Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Johnson reels off 140 combined yards and two touchdowns. Palmer throws for 260 yards and a TD to John Brown, who tops 100 yards. Ameer Abdullah scratches out 70 yards. Stafford throws for 330 yards and scores to Golden Tate and TJ Jones. Cardinals, 24-20

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Le'Veon Bell remains the smartest man in the entire league, conveniently ending his contract holdout just in time to skip the entire pointless preseason. Given that the Steelers' fortunes already rest on how healthy Ben Roethlisberger can stay, as neither Landry Jones nor Joshua Dobbs seem like capable understudies, Bell removing any chance he might have had of getting hurt before games matter was simply genius. The Browns might seem like they're finally pointed in the right direction, but DeShone Kizer isn't this year's Dak Prescott, and Myles Garrett's ankle injury on the eve of the season indicates the franchise's luck hasn't changed just yet.

The Skinny:

• 2016 PIT offense: 24.9 PPG (T-10th), 110.0 rushing yds/gm (14th), 273.6 passing yds/gm (10th), 21 sacks allowed (2nd), 18 turnovers (T-11th)
• 2016 CLE offense: 16.5 PPG (31st), 107.0 rushing yds/gm (19th), 230.8 passing yds/gm (27th), 66 sacks allowed (32nd), 25 turnovers (T-21st)
• 2016 PIT defense: 20.4 PPG allowed (10th), 100.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (13th), 258.8 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), 38 sacks (T-9th), 23 turnovers (T-14th)
• 2016 CLE defense: 28.3 PPG allowed (30th), 142.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (31st), 260.8 passing yds/gm allowed (20th), 26 sacks (T-30th), 13 turnovers (T-30th)
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 Pittsburgh, average score PIT 23-CLE 16, average margin of victory 13 points
•Ben Roethlisberger career vs. CLE, 23 games: 21-2, 62.5 percent completion rate, 5,490 yards, 35:17 TD:INT, 8.3 YPA
• Weather forecast: clear, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Bell rips off 120 combined yards and scores twice. Roethlisberger throws for 250 yards and TDs to Antonio Brown and Jesse James. Isaiah Crowell manages 70 rushing yards, while Duke Johnson adds 60 combined yards. Kizer throws for 200 yards but doesn't find the end zone. Steelers, 31-6

Atlanta at Chicago (+7), 49.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Super Bowl loser's curse seemed to have become a thing of the past this decade, but then the Panthers collapsed last year and now the Falcons will have the mother of all Super Bowl hangovers, while having to navigate through it without Kyle Shanahan. I've had a nagging feeling all preseason that the odds of a big regression from the Atlanta offense wasn't being properly priced in by the market, so if you're looking for a crazy upset pick in Week 1 – or at least an opportunity to take the points on a home 'dog – this might be the best place to look. The Bears aren't throwing Mitchell Trubisky to the wolves right away, which is the smart move for the long term, but it's not like he'd have anybody to throw the ball to even if he was under center. Expect to see lots and lots and lots of Jordan Howard.

The Skinny:

• 2016 ATL offense: 33.8 PPG (1st), 120.5 rushing yds/gm (5th), 310.0 passing yds/gm (2nd), 37 sacks allowed (T-21st), 11 turnovers (T-1st)
• 2016 CHI offense: 17.4 PPG (T-28th), 108.4 rushing yds/gm (17th), 258.7 passing yds/gm (15th), 28 sacks allowed (T-7th), 31 turnovers (30th)
• 2016 ATL defense: 25.4 PPG allowed (27th), 104.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 280.9 passing yds/gm allowed (28th), 34 sacks (T-16th), 22 turnovers (16th)
• 2016 CHI defense: 24.9 PPG allowed (24th), 121.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 239.3 passing yds/gm allowed (6th), 37 sacks (12th), 11 turnovers (32nd)
•Matt Ryan's QB rating, last four years: 89.6 (2013, pre-Kyle Shanahan), 93.9 (2014, pre-KS), 89.0 (2015, with KS), 117.1 (2016, with KS)
• Weather forecast: clear, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Devonta Freeman picks up 90 combined yards and a TD, while Tevin Coleman adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Ryan throws for 260 yards and a second touchdown to Julio Jones but gets picked off twice – something that didn't happen once last season. Howard bulls his way for 100 yards and a touchdown. Mike Glennon throws for 230 yards and a TD to Kendall Wright. Falcons, 24-20

Baltimore (+3) at Cincinnati, 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Ravens have the makings of a sneaky-good passing attack this year with Jeremy Maclin in the fold and Breshad Perriman reasonably healthy. I've got my eye on the tight end situation, though. Joe Flacco has a history of making his TEs productive dating back to the Todd Heap days, and while Ben Watson is the big name at the position, Nick Boyle (who?) tops the depth chart and Maxx Williams still has some faint Year Three breakout potential. The Bengals don't know who their lead back will be, or who their No. 2 receiver behind A.J. Green is, but there's enough talent at both spots to be comfortable assuming everything works itself out.

The Skinny:

• 2016 BAL offense: 21.4 PPG (21st), 91.4 rushing yds/gm (28th), 271.4 passing yds/gm (11th), 33 sacks allowed (T-13th), 23 turnovers (T-17th)
• 2016 CIN offense: 20.3 PPG (24th), 110.6 rushing yds/gm (13th), 262.9 passing yds/gm (13th), 41 sacks allowed (T-25th), 17 turnovers (T-8th)
• 2016 BAL defense: 20.1 PPG allowed (9th), 89.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 246.7 passing yds/gm allowed (10th), 31 sacks (T-24th), 28 turnovers (T-4th)
• 2016 CIN defense: 19.7 PPG allowed (8th), 113.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 249.1 passing yds/gm allowed (11th), 33 sacks (T-19th), 20 turnovers (T-19th)
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 Cincinnati, average score CIN 23-BAL 21, average margin of victory 10 points
•A.J. Green career vs. BAL, eight games: 41 catches on 74 targets for 726 yards and six TDs
• Weather forecast: clear, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Terrance West runs for 60 yards. Flacco throws for 270 yards and TDs to Mike Wallace and Williams. Joe Mixon leads the Bengals backfield with 60 rushing yards, but Giovani Bernard catches a touchdown pass. Andy Dalton throws for 280 yards and two more TDs to Green, who tops 100 yards, and Tyler Boyd. Bengals, 24-20

Indianapolis (+3.5) at L.A. Rams, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Story: So many "bad Luck/rotten Luck" puns, so little time. While the Colts' decision to have Andrew Luck start the year on the roster and not the PUP list seems encouraging, this is also the organization that told everyone he'd be throwing a football months before he was actually able to following offseason shoulder surgery, so make of that apparent optimism what you will. Until he's back, though, this is probably a dead-end offense for fantasy purposes. The Rams got back their best player, as Aaron Donald ended his holdout, but the sturm und drang over his decision to try to get paid what he's actually worth – for a franchise desperately trying to make a good impression on their new/old fan base – could take some attention away from Jared Goff's attempts to wipe the stink of a truly horrid rookie season away.

The Skinny:

• 2016 IND offense: 25.7 PPG (8th), 101.8 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 280.7 passing yds/gm (4th), 44 sacks allowed (28th), 22 turnovers (16th)
• 2016 LAR offense: 14.0 PPG (32nd), 78.3 rushing yds/gm (31st), 207.1 passing yds/gm (30th), 49 sacks allowed (31st), 29 turnovers (T-27th)
• 2016 IND defense: 24.5 PPG allowed (22nd), 120.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (25th), 275.7 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), 33 sacks (T-19th), 17 turnovers (T-26th)
• 2016 LAR defense: 24.6 PPG allowed (23rd), 103.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (16th), 245.5 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), 31 sacks (T-24th), 18 turnovers (T-23rd)
• IND offense without Luck over the last two seasons, 10 games: 18.3 PPG, 78.8 rushing yds/gm, 228.7 passing yds/gm, 12:9 TD:INT from other QBs
• Weather forecast: cloudy, chance of delay due to thunderstorms

The Scoop: Frank Gore thuds out 70 yards. Scott Tolzien throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Donte Moncrief for a score. Todd Gurley gallops for 110 yards and a touchdown. Goff looks competent, throwing for 230 yards and a TD to Sammy Watkins. Rams, 20-10

Carolina at San Francisco (+5.5), 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: Cam Newton never seemed the same last year after getting his bell rung in the second half of the Panthers' opener, so while his shoulder is the obvious concern after offseason surgery, I'm more interested in how gun-shy he is when it comes to running the ball, and how that affects his style of play. Kyle Shanahan has a Chip Kelly-sized hole to climb out of in San Francisco, and the pieces he has to work with in the passing game are about as far from the 2016 Falcons' roster as, well, Brian Hoyer is from Steve Young in his prime.

The Skinny:

• 2016 CAR offense: 23.1 PPG (15th), 113.4 rushing yds/gm (10th), 247.6 passing yds/gm (19th), 36 sacks allowed (T-19th), 29 turnovers (T-27th)
• 2016 SF offense: 19.3 PPG (27th), 126.2 rushing yds/gm (4th), 197.9 passing yds/gm (32nd), 47 sacks allowed (30th), 25 turnovers (T-21st)
• 2016 CAR defense: 25.1 PPG allowed (26th), 91.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 285.1 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 47 sacks (2nd), 27 turnovers (T-7th)
• 2016 SF defense: 30.0 PPG allowed (32nd), 165.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 250.8 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 33 sacks (T-19th), 20 turnovers (T-19th)
• CAR record when Cam Newton rushes for 50-plus yards: 21-6-1 from 2011-2015, 0-2 in 2016
• Weather forecast: clear, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Jonathan Stewart rushes for 70 yards and a TD, while Christian McCaffrey piles up 100 combined yards and a score as well. Newton throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Greg Olsen while running for 60 yards. Carlos Hyde slashes for 90 yards. Hoyer throws for 260 yards and a TD to Aldrick Robinson. Panthers, 30-13

Seattle (+3) at Green Bay, 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: Look, adding name-brand players like Eddie Lacy and Sheldon Richardson is great and all, but do the Seahawks know they have to, y'know, block guys? Their offensive line remains a Superfund site, and at some point the pounding Russell Wilson is taking will cost them in a big way. The Packers just keep rolling along, and bringing in Martellus Bennett was one of the better moves of the offseason, even if it seems to have slipped under the radar. If Jordy Nelson – who made up for a loss of efficiency with big-time volume last year in his return from an ACL tear – loses another step, Aaron Rodgers is going to need a steady target at tight end.

The Skinny:

• 2016 SEA offense: 22.1 PPG (T-18th), 99.4 rushing yds/gm (25th), 276.4 passing yds/gm (8th), 42 sacks allowed (27th), 18 turnovers (T-11th)
• 2016 GB offense: 27.0 PPG (4th), 106.3 rushing yds/gm (20th), 277.8 passing yds/gm (6th), 35 sacks allowed (T-16th), 17 turnovers (T-8th)
• 2016 SEA defense: 18.3 PPG allowed (3rd), 92.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (7th), 242.8 passing yds/gm allowed (8th), 42 sacks (T-3rd), 19 turnovers (22nd)
• 2016 GB defense: 24.3 PPG allowed (21st), 94.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 287.7 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 40 sacks (T-6th), 25 turnovers (T-11th)
•Russell Wilson is the fourth QB in history to be sacked 40-plus times in four straight seasons. The other three? Ben Roethlisberger (2006-2009), Randall Cunningham (five seasons, 1986-1990) and Neil Lomax (six seasons, 1983-1988). All three previous streaks were snapped because the player wasn't able to suit up for a full season the following year. In Lomax's case, he never played an NFL game again, his career over at age 29.
• Weather forecast: clear, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Lacy's revenge game is a bit of a dud as he rushes for only 40 yards, but he does score. C.J. Prosise leads the backfield with 70 combined yards. Wilson throws for 290 yards and TDs to Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson, but also gets sacked four times. Ty Montgomery scampers for 70 yards, but Jamaal Williams vultures a TD. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Davante Adams and Bennett. Packers, 30-24

N.Y. Giants (+4) at Dallas, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

The Story: Odell Beckham's gimpy ankle is taking precious punditing time away from the Ezekiel Elliott story, but that could all be a sideshow anyway, as the Giants' defense was one of the few units to have Dak Prescott's number last year. If the unit is as good or better than it was in 2016, they won't need Beckham or even a rebound from Eli Manning to stake their claim to an NFC East title. If Beckham can play Sunday night, though – he is a game-time decision – he could have a field day against a Cowboys secondary that's still wet behind the ears and features five DBs drafted in the last two years, with only Orlando Scandrick and journeyman Nolan Carroll around to provide any kind of veteran savvy.

The Skinny:

• 2016 NYG offense: 19.4 PPG (26th), 88.3 rushing yds/gm (29th), 251.7 passing yds/gm (18th), 22 sacks allowed (3rd), 27 turnovers (T-24th)
• 2016 DAL offense: 26.3 PPG (5th), 149.8 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 237.4 passing yds/gm (23rd), 28 sacks allowed (T-7th), 15 turnovers (T-5th)
• 2016 NYG defense: 17.8 PPG allowed (2nd), 88.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (T-4th), 266.3 passing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 35 sacks (T-14th), 25 turnovers (T-11th)
• 2016 DAL defense: 19.1 PPG allowed (5th), 83.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 273.5 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), 36 sacks (13th), 20 turnovers (T-19th)
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 Dallas, average score DAL 24-NYG 23, average margin of victory five points
•Odell Beckham career vs. DAL, six games: 31 catches on 48 targets for 426 yards and five TDs
• Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Paul Perkins gains 60 yards. Beckham plays, and Manning throws for 310 yards and three TDs, two to OBJ and one to Evan Engram, but also gets picked off twice. Elliott bashes out 120 yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 250 yards and scores to Jason Witten and Cole Beasley. Dan Bailey boots the game winner in the dying seconds. Cowboys, 27-24

New Orleans (+3.5) at Minnesota, 48.0 o/u – Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

The Story: Somehow the NFL schedule-makers always manages to do this in Week 1. Not only is Eddie Lacy heading to Green Bay for the Seahawks opener, Adrian Peterson gets to play in Minnesota while wearing gold and black. Whether he has any kind of impact is another thing entirely, though, as anyone who had to watch Emmitt Smith suit up as a Cardinal (to pick just one example of a guy holding on too long) can attest. The bigger question with the Saints is who gets Brandin Cooks' targets, as Ted Ginn seems like an unsatisfactory answer. Mike Zimmer's Vikings retain their defense-first philosophy, but if Laquon Treadwell can avoid being a complete bust, their passing attack could have more teeth than anticipated, especially if Dalvin Cook keeps the opposition's focus at the line of scrimmage.

The Skinny:

• 2016 NO offense: 29.3 PPG (2nd), 108.9 rushing yds/gm (16th), 328.6 passing yds/gm (1st), 27 sacks allowed (6th), 24 turnovers (T-19th)
• 2016 MIN offense: 20.4 PPG (23rd), 75.3 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 257.4 passing yds/gm (17th), 38 sacks allowed (23rd), 16 turnovers (7th)
• 2016 NO defense: 28.4 PPG allowed (31st), 101.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 287.1 passing yds/gm allowed (31st), 30 sacks (27th), 21 turnovers (T-17th)
• 2016 MIN defense: 19.2 PPG allowed (6th), 106.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 227.3 passing yds/gm allowed (4th), 41 sacks (5th), 27 turnovers (T-7th)
•Drew Brees career QB rating: in indoor stadiums, 102.5; outdoors, 90.3
• Weather report: indoor

The Scoop: Mark Ingram leads the Saints backfield with 80 rushing yards and a TD, as Peterson sees few touches. Brees throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener. Cook has an explosive debut, rushing for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Sam Bradford throws for 220 yards and TDs to Treadwell and Stefon Diggs. Vikings, 31-27

L.A. Chargers (+3.5) at Denver, 43.5 o/u – Monday, 10:20 p.m. EDT

The Story: Vegas has set the over/under on the number of times I mistakenly refer to "San Diego" this season at 5.5. The Chargers' offense still gets most of the press, what with Hunter Henry nudging Antonio Gates toward retirement and Melvin Gordon proving not to be the new Trent Richardson last year, but it's their young, speedy defense that's going to give the opposition fits in 2017. The Broncos, meanwhile, still seem to be living in the past – their defense retains the key pieces of their Super Bowl run from two years ago, but bringing back Brock Osweiler indicates just how much help they need under center, and there biggest offseason addition on offense is another relic who's seen better days in Jamaal Charles. A complete collapse may be unlikely, but the Denver roster is starting to look like it's outlasted its "Best Before" date.

The Skinny:

• 2016 LAC offense: 25,6 PPG (9th), 94.4 rushing yds/gm (26th), 274.1 passing yds/gm (9th), 36 sacks allowed (T-19th), 35 turnovers (32nd)
• 2016 DEN offense: 20.8 PPG (22nd), 92.8 rushing yds/gm (27th), 244.6 passing yds/gm (T-21st), 40 sacks allowed (24th), 25 turnovers (T-21st)
• 2016 LAC defense: 26.4 PPG allowed (29th), 97.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (10th), 263.6 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), 35 sacks (T-14th), 28 turnovers (T-4th)
• 2016 DEN defense: 18.6 PPG allowed (4th), 130.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 200.0 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 42 sacks (T-3rd), 27 turnovers (T-7th)
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 Denver (plus 1-0 Denver in postseason), average score DEN 25-LAC 19, average margin of victory 10 points
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, winds less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Gordon picks up 70 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers throws for 240 yards and a TD to Henry. C.J. Anderson gains only 50 yards. Trevor Siemian throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked four times, but does find Emmanuel Sanders for a score. Chargers, 17-13

2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS