This article is part of our NFL Free Agency series.
With the exception of Jadeveon Clowney and a few other defensive players, we're mostly talking about borderline starters and career backups when we assess the free agent pool in April. If we're dealing with a position like wide receiver — where the free agent talent was weak to begin with — it's kind of like diving for crumbs at the bottom of a dumpster.
Odd enough, the one skill position where multiple starter-quality players remain unsigned is the one where we usually see any half-decent player — plus some lousy ones like Brock Osweiler — cash in big on the open market. With future Hall of Famers playing into their 40s and recent drafts providing an infusion of young QB talent, the 2020 free-agent market was a game of musical chairs where multiple signal callers were left standing.
The situation still has time to sort itself out before Week 1, but that's no consolation to those of us with April drafts/auctions for best ball leagues or dynasty startups. My goal here is to look at remaining free agents that might warrant a late-round pick, or at least to find some guys we can keep in mind for later this year if they happen to land in good situations.
Be sure to check out RotoWire's Free Agent Grid if you're looking for a broader view of what's still available, including defensive players and offensive linemen (but no punters or long-snappers, sorry).
The Left-Behinds
QB Cam Newton
Crazy as it may seem,
With the exception of Jadeveon Clowney and a few other defensive players, we're mostly talking about borderline starters and career backups when we assess the free agent pool in April. If we're dealing with a position like wide receiver — where the free agent talent was weak to begin with — it's kind of like diving for crumbs at the bottom of a dumpster.
Odd enough, the one skill position where multiple starter-quality players remain unsigned is the one where we usually see any half-decent player — plus some lousy ones like Brock Osweiler — cash in big on the open market. With future Hall of Famers playing into their 40s and recent drafts providing an infusion of young QB talent, the 2020 free-agent market was a game of musical chairs where multiple signal callers were left standing.
The situation still has time to sort itself out before Week 1, but that's no consolation to those of us with April drafts/auctions for best ball leagues or dynasty startups. My goal here is to look at remaining free agents that might warrant a late-round pick, or at least to find some guys we can keep in mind for later this year if they happen to land in good situations.
Be sure to check out RotoWire's Free Agent Grid if you're looking for a broader view of what's still available, including defensive players and offensive linemen (but no punters or long-snappers, sorry).
The Left-Behinds
QB Cam Newton
Crazy as it may seem, Newton is in serious danger of missing out on a starting job. There are only four teams with QB vacancies at the moment, and three of those — Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers — seem intent on using the draft to fill their void. I still think the Chargers could reverse course, and the Patriots loom as a candidate to get in on Newton or Andy Dalton (technically still under contract with Cincinnati) if the cost is low enough. Otherwise, Newton might have to wait and see if a preseason injury creates an opening.
For early fantasy drafts, I'm treating Newton as a low-floor, high-ceiling QB3 in season-long best ball leagues and a low-end QB2 for dynasty. Sure, there's some chance you're taking a zero or close to it, but he's only 31 years old (in May) and is just two years removed from a season with more than 20 fantasy points per game. In terms of per-game scoring, he was QB8 in 2018 and QB5 in 2017. Maybe those days are gone, but a healthy Newton still has a much higher ceiling than a non-runner like Derek Carr if you're looking for a QB3 late in a best ball draft. I'd lean toward Carr in a 50/50 format, while Newton gets the nod in contests with top-heavy payouts. I currently have Newton as my QB26 for best ball, ahead of Carr and Drew Lock but slightly behind Gardner Minshew and Teddy Bridgewater.
Winston is probably viewed as another floor/ceiling guy, but I'm not so sure that's the case outside of his Tampa Bay context. He isn't a huge rushing threat, and his next team probably won't have the same combination of elite receivers and a shaky defense. Winston himself may stick with the risk-loving approach, but that alone isn't enough to push toward 5,000 yards if it isn't happening on the right team. In any case, Famous Jameis faces the same problem as Newton, potentially forced to settle for backup work in a league where the most important position suddenly appears quite deep. I don't understand why Winston has been drafted at QB25 so far this April, ahead of Newton, Carr, Minshew and Lock.
Here's the arc of Freeman's career: Passing-down specialist in 2014, RB1 in 2015 and 2016, RB2 in 2017, missed 14 games in 2018, returned to RB2 in 2019. The Falcons then cut him in mid-March, right around the time of his 28th birthday. Even at his best, Freeman wasn't especially fast or strong, instead relying on vision, balance and receiving ability.
Some might argue that his reliance on skills rather than pure athleticism bodes well for longevity, but recent results suggest that hasn't been the case. Among 47 qualified rushers last season, Freeman finished 42nd in YPC (3.6), 46th in average yards after contact (1.6) and 41st in PFF's elusive rating (37.0). On the other hand, Freeman caught 59 of 70 targets and only had one drop, so he can still help an NFL team if he's mostly on the field for pass plays.
Potential fits include Buffalo, Arizona, Jacksonville and Seattle, while Tampa Bay would be the dream scenario, potentially giving Freeman a shot to compete with Ronald Jones for the lead job. Unfortunately, it seems far more likely that the veteran has to settle for backup work, which makes him a late-round fantasy pick at best. His April ADP (117) on BB10s seems way too high; almost like he's being drafted under the assumption of a best-case scenario landing spot. I think it's just as likely that he gets stuck behind a locked-in starter such as Devin Singletary or Kenyan Drake.
RB Carlos Hyde
Hyde is coming off one of the least exciting 1,000-yard rushing seasons in recent memory, with his ground total supported by only 42 receiving yards and six total TDs. A mark of 4.4 YPC is nothing to scoff at, but it probably overstates the actual quality of his running. Hyde had eight carries of 20-plus yards and three of 40-plus, but two of those three long ones came in the closing minutes of blowouts. Meanwhile, Duke Johnson averaged 4.9 YPC in the same offense, and Hyde ranked 21st in average yardage after contact (2.2), 33rd in elusive rating and 26th in rushing DVOA.
With subpar receiving skills and solid but unspectacular running, Hyde is the type of guy that likely will settle for backup work but could end up in a lead role after injuries create some openings (like what happened with Lamar Miller last year). Just keep in mind that 2019 represented an absolute best-case scenario where everything broke in Hyde's favor and the best he could manage was lingering around RB2/3 territory.
I'm baffled by what seems to be a total lack of interest in Thompson, who has a hard time staying healthy but remained effective on passing downs (6.5 YPT) in the 11 games he played last season. The best fit for the 29-year-old would be in Jacksonville, where Leonard Fournette had six drops and produced 5.2 YPT in a three-down role last season and now could be scaled back to two-down duties under new OC Jay Gruden.
You might remember that Gruden was the head coach in Washington when Thompson first made his name as one of the top passing-down specialists in the league. The ceiling for this type of player probably isn't high enough to warrant a top-240 selection (i.e., a draft pick in 20-round best balls), but I'll happily take a flier on Thompson in super-deep formats.
Washington filled in capably when Josh Jacobs missed three games in December, putting up PPR totals of 21.6, 18.6 and 21.2 points while averaging 4.0 YPC and catching 16 of 19 targets for 119 yards. It was volume-based production without much flare, but there should be some type of job available for Washington in a league where Patrick Laird, Brian Hill and Wes Hills stumbled into carries last season.
Washington would be an upgrade over the current backups in Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Miami, at the very least. I'm not saying I'm ready to draft him top 240, but he's at least a name to remember for future reference.
WR Josh Gordon
The new CBA essentially eliminates suspensions for positive drug tests, but the new rules don't erase past infractions, which means Gordon will need to apply for reinstatement from the indefinite ban he's been serving since Dec. 16. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports the soon-to-be 29-year-old intends to play football in 2020, presumably hoping to be reinstated before Week 1.
Now, I know what you may be wondering — what happens if Gordon is reinstated but then fails a drug test at some point thereafter? The answer, unfortunately, is that he can be sent back on the old suspension terms (un-reinstated? dis-reinstated?) at the discretion of league commissioner Roger Goodell. More likely than not, Gordon will need to stay clean in order to stay on the field.
I actually like his chances to play games this upcoming season, but the 2013 production feels like distant mythology rather than a hint at his realistic ceiling as a 29-year-old. Gordon averaged 65.5 yards in 11 games as a full-time player for the 2018 Patriots, before sinking to 47.8 yards over the first six weeks of 2019. He then averaged 27.8 yards in five games for Seattle, sharing snaps with the likes of David Moore and Malik Turner.
If the ceiling is now 800 yards instead of 1,400, it becomes much harder to make the argument for Gordon as a late-round pick. He still doesn't have a team and may not be able to stay on the field for long if/when he finds one.
Walker missed 15 games in 2018 and nine more in 2019, but I thought he was a decent approximation of his peak self before injures struck last season, hauling in 67.7 percent of targets for 10.2 yards per catch and 6.9 YPT. That's nothing special, to be sure, but it does suggest the age-36 version of Walker would be an upgrade on passing downs for a few teams, namely Washington, Cincinnati and New England. The days of 800-yard seasons and three-down workloads are probably gone, but Walker can still put up something like 55-600-5 in a good situation. For the time being, I'd rather take Tyler Eifert or Kyle Rudolph as a TE3 toward the end of a draft.
TE Jordan Reed
No, I won't draft Reed again. I wasn't quite able to kick the bad habit last year, but another season lost to injury is the final straw. While some NFL franchises will look at Reed's concussion history as a disqualifying factor, it only takes one to decide he can help out on passing downs. If he decides to continue playing, and if he's able to find a team, Reed could reemerge as a TE streaming option. But no, I won't be drafting him... pinky swear.
Honorable Mentions: QB Joe Flacco, QB Blake Bortles, RB Lamar Miller, RB Frank Gore, WR Ted Ginn, WR Paul Richardson
