With the Super Bowl just over a month in the rear-view mirror, free agency is finally upon us, and the fantasy values of many players will begin to take shape as we take a long-range view of the 2017 season. This article was started after the initial signings in the opening hours of free agency, and upon its completion, most of the top options at each position have either re-signed or found new homes. A third installment of this article will be written once a majority of the free agent pool has dried up, and then a fourth will provide an overview of the entirety of this offseason spending spree.
After the first few hours of free agency concluded, there haven't been any relevant quarterback or running back free agent signings.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Terrelle Pryor
Along with Alshon Jeffery, Pryor was assumed to be one of the few players to command big money on the open market. However, once it was established that teams weren't prepared to spend up at wide receiver, Pryor followed Jeffery's lead by signing a one-year deal. With Washington having lost DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, Pryor fills a clear need, as they have Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed to patrol the middle of the field, but this move gives them an excellent option on the perimeter. Although he posted 1,007 receiving yards last year, Pryor will now have other established options to catch passes, so his target share should be lower. However, if
With the Super Bowl just over a month in the rear-view mirror, free agency is finally upon us, and the fantasy values of many players will begin to take shape as we take a long-range view of the 2017 season. This article was started after the initial signings in the opening hours of free agency, and upon its completion, most of the top options at each position have either re-signed or found new homes. A third installment of this article will be written once a majority of the free agent pool has dried up, and then a fourth will provide an overview of the entirety of this offseason spending spree.
After the first few hours of free agency concluded, there haven't been any relevant quarterback or running back free agent signings.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Terrelle Pryor
Along with Alshon Jeffery, Pryor was assumed to be one of the few players to command big money on the open market. However, once it was established that teams weren't prepared to spend up at wide receiver, Pryor followed Jeffery's lead by signing a one-year deal. With Washington having lost DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, Pryor fills a clear need, as they have Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed to patrol the middle of the field, but this move gives them an excellent option on the perimeter. Although he posted 1,007 receiving yards last year, Pryor will now have other established options to catch passes, so his target share should be lower. However, if Kirk Cousins remains with the team, Pryor will be paired up with a solid quarterback who's capable of taking advantage of his skill set. On the other hand, Colt McCoy would be the likely replacement if Cousins leaves, and though he's competent, he's been a career backup for a reason. If the status quo remains in place, Pryor should be counted upon as a WR2, especially since last year was the equivalent of his rookie season at his position.
Brandin Cooks
OK, so he was acquired via trade, but since the move took place early in free agency, it seems to classify as part of the overall process. The Patriots are at it again, this time picking up a player who has not reached his prime even though he's averaged 1,155 receiving yards and 8.5 touchdowns per season over the last two. With Saints quarterback Drew Brees much better at throwing the ball down the seam than deep down the sidelines, his former franchise was never able to fully maximize his abilities. Now he'll be working with Tom Brady, and though it once seemed as if the legend was losing arm strength, he's clearly reversed that trend over the past couple of seasons. Cooks will be able to attack defenses that won't be able to commit double coverage to him, so he should thrive in this system. Unfortunately, the move to the Pats will likely have at least one fantasy owner in every league ready to overpay for Cooks, and that will likely offset much of his fantasy value, which has him looking like a player who could easily finish in the top-12 at his position.
Kenny Britt
What does this guy have to do to get paired up with a competent NFL quarterback? Britt has spent his career with the Titans and Rams, and he now moves to the Browns, who still have question marks under center. After a blazing stretch early in his career, off-field issues and injuries kept fantasy owners chasing elite production, which never came to fruition. Despite his previous troubles, he's matured off the field while staying healthy, leading to him missing just a single game over the past three seasons. Despite being part of a passing attack that was reminiscent of 1930s football, he was able to post the first 1,0000-yard season of his career last year. Should the Browns roll with Cody Kessler under center in 2017, Britt should be looked at as a WR3. However, if they are able to upgrade the position, he has excellent skills at his position and could be one of the sneakiest draft picks on the board. Sure, he's unlikely to ever turn in a WR1 campaign, but he certainly could finish near the top-20 at receiver if he gets an upgrade at quarterback.
Ted Ginn
If the Saints were only able to get speedster Brandin Cooks to 15 yards per reception once in his three years with the team, it's difficult to imagine that they'll be able to take full advantage of Ginn's ability to blow by defenders. The main concern is that Drew Brees lacks the big arm needed to consistently take shots downfield, and he does most of his damage in the middle of the field, where his pinpoint accuracy makes him one of the best quarterbacks the game has ever seen. Of course, Ginn will make an occasional big play, but his volatility will make him a player best suited for best ball leagues, rather than someone who can be placed with confidence into weekly starting lineups. It's also possible that the Saints signed him because of his outstanding skills as a kick returner. Think of him as a player who should be considered in the latter rounds of fantasy drafts.
Robert Woods
Even though Woods failed to top 700 yards or 12 yards per reception in any of his four years with the Bills despite playing in an average of 14 games per season, he had moments of looking like a player who could be a very good receiver. For instance, there were a few games with EJ Manuel at quarterback, and the duo appeared to have excellent chemistry that allowed Woods to be productive. Unfortunately, he'll go from one quarterback-challenged team to another, as he'll now be seeing passes from Jared Goff, who appears to be a long way off from being a solid NFL signal caller. It's tough to advise fantasy owners to use a draft pick on Woods, but if the passing game can somehow improve under the new coaching staff, he's talented enough to be a breakout player. It could be a smart move to take a flier on him in a dynasty league, where he can easily be dropped if nothing pans out.
Russell Shepard
Shepard flashed a little last season when he posted 14.8 yards per reception on 23 catches with the Bucs, and he should have a chance to step into the Panthers' lineup as a slot receiver. That said, slot receivers don't tend to match up well with Cam Newton's strengths as a passer, as he has more success throwing the ball to the boundaries and deep downfield. Shepard may be a square peg in a round hole, but he showed enough last year to make him a player to watch during training camp to see if he's worthy of a late-round fantasy selection.
Kendall Wright
Wright burst onto the NFL scene with 1,079 yards in 2013, but he's averaged just 500 in the three years since, which is why the Titans had no issue losing him to free agency. This is a low-risk addition for the Bears, who will likely give him a chance to take over the slot role from Eddie Royal. Wright won't likely be worthy of much consideration in fantasy drafts, but he's someone to keep an eye on throughout the preseason to see if his new team finds a way to bring him back to his 2013 form.
Charles Johnson
Johnson has long been a player who has boasted a great size/speed ratio, but it's never really come together for an extended stretch on an NFL field. After a strong finish to the 2014 season, he's been almost nonexistent in the two years since. In his three seasons with the Vikings, he was able to amass just 834 receiving yards, but he'll get another chance with Cam Newton and the Panthers. Based on his new opportunity, he might be worth a cheap flier in a dynasty league, but if he doesn't flash during the preseason, or maybe a few weeks into the 2017 season, he'll likely be one of those players whose skills never really translate to an NFL field.
TIGHT ENDS
Martellus Bennett
Between sharing the field with Rob Gronkowski for much of 2016, and then playing on a significant ankle injury throughout the year, Bennett still reached the 700-yard mark for the third time in his last four seasons. He's one of the better two-way tight ends in the league, and he's as tough as they come, playing 16 games in four of the last five years. After playing with a future Hall of Famer in Tom Brady, he'll now be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, a passer who has always been able to get the ball to his tight ends. That said, don't expect Bennett to come in and replicate the late-season success that Jared Cook had last year, as the skill sets of those players are vastly different. Bennett should be a force in the red zone, and there's every reason to expect him to continue posting similar yardage totals to his recent past. Although he won't likely be an elite fantasy option, expect him to be drafted in the top-five at his position, and it would be a surprise if he failed to meet his draft value.
Dwayne Allen
Allen was acquired via trade during the first day of free agency, and his signing ensured that Martellus Bennett would no longer be a Patriot. Allen had a solid season in 2014, when he scored eight touchdowns while posting 13.6 yards per reception, though he wasn't a consistent fantasy factor playing with Andrew Luck. In his defense, the Colts had very little talent on the offensive line, and Allen was frequently called upon to block, likely limiting his ability as a receiving option. It's almost a certainty he'll be a nearly full-time player with the Pats, as they often have two tight ends on the field, and he'll have opportunity to carve out a role as a receiver, but it'll be difficult to draft him as more than a TE2 or a handcuff to Rob Gronkowski. To draft him as anything more would be based on an assumption that he'll play at his 2014 level.
Dion Sims
The Dolphins used Sims primarily as a blocking tight end, but after suffering injuries at the position last year, he hauled in four touchdowns over a four-game span, which showed that he could be a reliable red-zone option. He'll likely be expected to go back to a blocking role with the Bears, but he also could be used as more of a receiving option if Zach Miller is forced to miss time. Sims won't be a player to give much consideration to on draft day, but should he be pressed into a larger role than expected, he could be someone to add via waivers in deep leagues.
OFFENSIVE TACKLES
Russell Okung
Okung will now be on his third team in three years, and though he's far from an elite tackle, he's a serviceable option who won't be a huge liability. This move will help to give Philip Rivers a bit more time to throw on obvious passing downs, when the Chargers aren't facing an elite pass rush, but it doesn't figure to have much of an impact on any specific skill position player's fantasy value.
Kelvin Beachum
The Jets are in the midst of a complete overhaul, and though Beachum is a solid addition on the offensive line, this offense is expected to have more than its share of struggles in 2017. Overall, don't expect this move to have a tangible fantasy impact for any of the skill position players.
Matt Kalil
Kalil will join his brother, Ryan, to help improve the Panthers' line after the offense had plenty of issues in 2016. Although Kalil had more than his share of struggles protecting the passer during his tenure in Minnesota, a change of scenery could do him good, as he's proven that he can perform well on occasion. Overall, it'll be difficult to tell what type of impact he'll have on the skill players, as it's impossible to know whether we'll see a version of the offense that's closer to their drastically different 2015 and 2016 campaigns.
Menelik Watson
The Broncos added both Watson and offensive guard Ronald Leary as they try to overhaul their line after a disappointing 2016 season. Watson was an adequate blocker with the Raiders, but certainly not one who was a priority for them to re-sign. That said, Denver needed the help, and this move is an upgrade, especially for the rushing attack, and specifically C.J. Anderson. Although the help on the line won't likely elevate Anderson's fantasy draft stock, it could help him to be a more consistent weekly option.
Mike Remmers
The addition of Remmers, along with the signing of Riley Reiff, gives the Vikings a desperately-needed new set of offensive tackles. The team goes from having one of the worst group of tackles in the league to having one that will likely be average, and that will be music to Sam Bradford's ears after he was frequently under siege last year. The revamped line should allow the offense to call more downfield passing plays, which is opposed to quick-strike attack they were forced to use last year. Overall, this move should remove some of the weekly downside that Bradford, Kyle Rudolph and Stefon Diggs had in the second half of the 2016 season.
INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE
J.C. Tretter
The Browns added Tretter at center and Kevin Zeitler at guard to give them an above average interior line when combined with guard Joel Bitonio, who the team re-signed. In addition, they still have one of the best tackles in the business in Joe Thomas, so this could end up being one of the most improved lines in the league. Knowing that head coach Hue Jackson is committed to a power rushing attack, the biggest beneficiary appears to be Isaiah Crowell, who could be in line for a breakout season. Crowell should be drafted as a RB2, but he legitimately could be a top-10 running back behind this line. Of course, they'll need to get something from their passing attack to keep defenses honest, but regardless, Crowell is the big winner here.
Ronald Leary
Along with Leary, the Broncos added tackle Menelik Watson, giving them an upgrade on the offensive line. Although Denver won't likely have a great line, they should have a more consistent rushing attack, and the biggest beneficiary would be C.J. Anderson, who at least should be more consistent than he's been in the past.
DEFENSIVE END
Jabaal Sheard
With most of the top options at edge rusher re-signed with their 2016 teams, the Colts inked arguably the best pass-rushing defensive end available. Sheard has recorded at least seven sacks in three of the last six years, and he will bring an immediate upgrade to a pass rush that certainly can use a boost. It would be a stretch to think he'll end up with double-digit sacks, but he'll go from being a rotational player with the Patriots to a full-time player, so he'll be a lower-end pass rush option in IDP leagues.
Julius Peppers
Despite being a 37-year-old pass rusher, Peppers has been a pillar of consistency throughout his career. Not only has he recorded at least seven sacks in 14 of 15 seasons, he's played a full 16 games in 12 of the last 13 years. He certainly won't be expected to play on all downs, but he'll be an important part of the Panthers' pass rush on a situational basis, and he'll continue to have his typical value in IDP leagues. This move also enhances the overall value of the Panthers as a team option in fantasy drafts, as it'll likely improve their sack numbers.
Chris Baker
The Bucs won't likely have a dominant player in Baker, but they'll have a very solid one who has recorded 10.5 sacks over the last two years. Although he won't be a hot commodity in IDP leagues, his biggest impact will be to improve the Bucs as an overall fantasy defense. As it stands, they've been more of a streaming unit, and though that's unlikely to change, they should be a couple spots higher on draft boards than they were last year.
LINEBACKERS
John Simon
Along with Jabaal Sheard, the Colts added a second edge rusher in Simon, who will be stationed as an outside linebacker. Simon has shown ability as a pass rusher, as evidenced his 8.5 sacks in 27 games over the past two seasons. Even though the Colts are still unlikely to be a fantasy defense that'll be highly owned despite the additions in free agency, Simon could emerge as an IDP option in deep leagues.
Malcolm Smith
The 49ers were able to land a sure tackler in Smith, who has recorded at least 100 tackles in each of the last two years. The team will still be in rebuilding mode on defense, but Smith should be a strong option in IDP leagues, as he should be in position to continue piling up big tackle numbers.
CORNERBACKS
Logan Ryan
Ryan is an immediate upgrade to a Titans secondary that was one of the worst in the league in 2016. Not only has he picked off 13 passes over the last four seasons, he's proven to be an excellent tackler, racking up at least 72 tackles in each of the last two. Although he won't raise the level of the Titans' defense to a point where they'll be a strong fantasy option, Ryan should continue to be one of the few cornerbacks capable of contributing in both tackles and interceptions, making him an excellent IDP option.
Prince Amukamara
The Bears definitely needed help in a secondary that struggled throughout the 2016 season, and they picked up a player who's coming off a solid 2016 campaign. Although he's recorded one or zero interceptions in five of the last six seasons, Amukamara has compiled at least 55 tackles in each of the last six seasons. Based on his tackling ability, he'll be a consideration in deep IDP leagues.
Captain Munnerlyn
Since leaving the Panthers for free agency to play with the Vikings, Munnerlyn now returns to his original team, but this time he'll likely see plenty of work in the slot. He hasn't been a big playmaker, as evidenced by him intercepting exactly two passes in four of the last five years, but he brings added value as a reliable tackler, posting at least 48 stops in four of the last five seasons. His versatility gives him weekly stability as a cornerback in IDP leagues, but he's better suited to being rostered in deep leagues.
SAFETIES
Tony Jefferson
Even though the Browns offered him more money, Jefferson chose to go to a team with a better chance to win. He'll fit right in with his new unit, as he's posted at least 77 tackles in each of the last three seasons while notching a career-high 96 in 2016. Although he hasn't had elite tackle numbers, he'll definitely be a player who should be owned in all IDP leagues, as his new defense should be able to get the most out of him.
Johnathan Cyprien
After averaging 113 tackles in his four years with the Jaguars, Cyprien stayed in the same division to sign with the Titans. Although he offers little more in IDP leagues than the ability to post tackles, he's been consistently productive in that category and should continue to be a player who should be rostered in fantasy leagues.
D.J. Swearinger
Early in his career, Swearinger was an undisciplined player, but he's progressed nicely and should be an excellent addition to the Washington defense. He's become more than a hard hitter, as he's intercepted at least two passes in two of the last three seasons, and he's also recorded at least 66 tackles in each of the three seasons in which he's played 16 games. His ability as a playmaker makes him a player to draft for potential upside in deep IDP leagues, though his tackle numbers fall well short of the elite at the position.
Micah Hyde
The Bills will likely use Hyde in the slot, where he had success in his stint with the Packers. He'll certainly be counted upon as a sure tackler, as he's posted between 55 and 60 tackles in each of his four NFL seasons. In addition, he's picked off three passes in each of the last two years, and though he doesn't post big enough numbers to be more than an option in deep IDP leagues, he'll be a solid addition for the Bills.
