NFL Expert Picks: Christmas Special - Chiefs vs. Steelers; Ravens vs. Texans

NFL Expert Picks: Christmas Special - Chiefs vs. Steelers; Ravens vs. Texans

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 17

The Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (10-5) in an AFC conference matchup on December 25th Christmas Day. The Chiefs are 1st in the AFC West, while the Steelers are also 1st in the AFC North.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds

Chiefs -2.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook -125) / Steelers +3.0 (Hard Rock Bet -110)

Chiefs ML (BetMGM -150) / Steelers ML (Caesars Sportsbook +135)

Total OVER 44.0 (BetRivers -109) / UNDER 44.5 (Bet365 -110) 

The Chiefs opened as 4.0 point road favorites and it peaked at -6.0 while the Steelers quarterback situation remained unsettled before the season. It reopened as Chiefs -2.5 and has bounced around between -2.0 and -3.0 which shows there money flowing on both sides. The total opened at 42.5 and it dropped to 41.0 before coming back around 43.5 and is now at 44.0 which is significant because 41 and 43 are key numbers in the NFL. 

Key Injuries

Chiefs - DE Chris Jones (Q), LT D.J. Humphries (O), WR Rashee Rice (O), RT Jawaan Taylor (Q), CB Jaylen Watson (O), CB Chamarri Conner (O)

Steelers - CB Joey Porter Jr (Q), RG James Daniels (O), RT Troy Fautanu (O)

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Chiefs vs. Steelers Betting Picks 

A big factor in this game is Mike Tomlin's record as an underdog, specifically a home dog where he shines at 19-6-3 ATS. Even though teams change from year to year, this shows an edge as a head coach to get his teams prepared to win in the most important games.

This is a game where you just feel like the point spread will play a factor and if it is -2.0 or -2.5 (You can shop around and find a +3.0), that is the difference. The total also hovers around the key number of 43. If you want the OVER, I would look at trying to find a 43 and if you like the UNDER grab 44 as this game could land 23-20. 

On the player prop side, the Chiefs are terrible against defending opposing tight ends, so Pat Freiermuth over his receiving yards prop looks good. Shop around as this is as low as 28.5 and as high as 31.5. They have allowed 15 tight ends to go over 28.5 receiving yards. 

Chiefs vs. Steelers Best Bet: Steelers +3 (Hard Rock Bet -110)

Secondary Bet: Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel -110)

Chiefs vs. Steelers Prediction

George Pickens and several key defensive players being back for the Steelers should not be overlooked. But also the status of the Chiefs best defensive player Chris Jones and offensive lineman Jawaan Taylor move this game in favor of the Steelers for me. The game being in Pittsburgh along with what I see being a grind out type of game and both teams trying to run the ball and control the clock; has me on the home dog in this spot.

Steelers 24, Chiefs 23

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 17

The Baltimore Ravens (10-5) travel to Houston to take on the Texans (9-6) in an AFC conference matchup on Christmas Day. The Ravens are 2nd in the AFC North, while the Texans are 1st in the AFC South.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds

Ravens -5.5 (FanDuel -110) / Texans +5.5 (Caesars -105)

Ravens ML (DraftKings -250) / Texans ML (Caesars +222)

Total OVER 46.5 (BetRivers -113) / UNDER 47.5 (Fanatics -115) 

Key Injuries

Ravens - WR Zay Flowers (Q), RB Justice Hill (O), WR Nelson Agholor (O), C Tyler Linderbaum (Q), RG Daniel Faalele (O)

Texans - WR Tank Dell (O), CB Jalen Pitre (O), S Jimmie Ward (O), DE Will Anderson (Q), WR Stefon Diggs (O), G Shaq Mason (O), DT Folorunso Fatukasi (O)

Ravens vs. Texans Betting Picks 

The Ravens are 4-0 ATS and SU against the Texans in their last 4 matchups.  They are strong in the road favorite role, going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10. The Over is 7-3 in those 10 games.

The Ravens could struggle to run the ball against this Texans defense so this leads me to look at Lamar Jackson's passing yards props as he will likely need to throw the ball more than usual.

Ravens vs. Texans Best Bet: Ravens -5.5 (FanDuel -110)

Secondary Bet: Lamar Jackson Over 218.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel -110)

Ravens vs. Texans Prediction

This is the best offense against the best defense in football and on paper it feels weird seeing the Texans getting this huge number at home. However, they are banged up on defense so I think the Ravens can score in the air. The strength of the Ravens defense is their ability to stop the run which does not bode well for the Texans.

I think it is going to be tough for the Texans to move the ball,which puts me on the road favorite in this spot.

Ravens 27, Texans 17

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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