Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Miami vs. Tennessee

The Miami Dolphins (9-3) are 13.5-point favorites over the 4-8 Titans. It's been a predictably dreary season for the Titans, who continue to stick with rookie second-round pick Will Levis despite the increasingly poor results. The Titans will also be without DL Jeffery Simmons, their best defender and arguably the best player on the team overall. The Dolphins, by contrast, face relatively few questions at this point – their identity and methods as a team are well-tested by now, and the Dolphins look like one of the best teams in the league for it. There are things the Dolphins can do that other teams can't, and the speedy Miami offense figures to use Monday's venue to issue some reminders on that front.

QUARTERBACK

Especially since it's difficult to project much production for Will Levis ($8600 DK, $13000 FD) and the Titans passing attack, this might be a good showdown slate for paying up for Tua Tagovailoa ($10600 DK, $14500 FD) and the Miami passing game stack. Pursuing Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill + Jaylen Waddle no doubt invites a certain amount of chalk, but the Dolphins are heavy favorites and it's easier to throw on the Titans than to run on them. With no Jeffery Simmons on the defensive line the Titans pass rush should be especially flat, making it exceedingly difficult to anticipate where Tagovailoa could possibly struggle.

RUNNING BACK

Raheem Mostert ($8800 DK, $12000 FD) got some rest last week as De'Von Achane ($10200 DK, $10500 FD) took a whopping 17 carries against Washington while Mostert saw just 11 carries on 23 snaps. Mostert was managing a knee tweak and Achane was getting it done against the weakling Commanders, so there wasn't much need to push Mostert in that setting. If rest was part of that equation then Mostert might gain usage at Achane's expense in this setting, especially since Achane simply is not built to take 17 carries in a game very often. Jeff Wilson ($2600 DK, $7000 FD) appears to be far behind both Mostert and Achane, though in theory it would make sense to get him some usage if the Dolphins find points easily in this game.

Derrick Henry ($9400 DK, $15000 FD) remains excellent and fully capable of doing damage to this Dolphins defense, but the Titans are such a mess it's difficult to take certain things for granted anymore. Namely, you could always count on the Titans to push for 20 carries for Henry in prior years, almost regardless of the game script. In 2023, though, the Titans have often been quick to abandon the run, effectively benching Henry for Tyjae Spears ($6200 DK, $10000 FD) for drives at a time. If the Titans indulge such rotations here then they will only hasten and emphasize their loss, but they're certainly free to do that. If the Titans abandon the run, though, Spears could be productive.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Tyreek Hill ($12000 DK, $17000 FD) probably should not be faded in showdown slates in general, and this one is no exception. As much as Jaylen Waddle ($9200 DK, $11000 FD) is elite or close to it himself, Hill is the singular engine of the Dolphins offense. In any given game, regardless of whether it's high or low-scoring, Hill is likely to see steady or high usage. If the Titans run defense remains strong without Simmons then this could be a setting where the Dolphins are encouraged to throw more than usual – or at least, a setting where a disproportionate amount of Miami's offensive production occurs through the air. It's such cases where it's especially easy to budget big games for both Hill and Waddle. The third-leading pass catcher is an unsettled matter, in part because Hill and Waddle claim so much that it's only trivial scraps left over, and in part because the remaining candidates rotate based on the function. Cedrick Wilson ($1800 DK, $8000 FD) often ranks third in wideout snaps in any given game for Miami, but he often ends up with heavy blocking workloads while Braxton Berrios ($2400 DK, $6500 FD) and even River Cracraft ($1400 DK, $6000 FD) often claim more targets. Durham Smythe ($2000 DK, $6000 FD) is a three-down player at tight end but rarely sees viable target opportunities.

DeAndre Hopkins ($7600 DK, $11500 FD) shouldn't have signed with the Titans but he did, and now he gets to try to get open against Jalen Ramsey just for the privilege of trying to chase down Levis' sketchy passes. Hopkins has never needed to get open to make a play, but this game might be one of his least-open games of his career. Treylon Burks ($2200 DK, $7500 FD) should step back into a starting role after only playing nine snaps in his return from a concussion last week, but if Hopkins is struggling to produce in an offense then it's unlikely the other pass catchers find a way to thrive. That applies to the talented Chigoziem Okonkwo ($4000 DK, $7500 FD) as well, but at least he and fellow three-down player Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3200 DK, $8500 FD) don't cost too much. If Burks sees more work in this game it would probably be mostly at the expense of Chris Moore ($1600 DK, $8000 FD), though if Burks remains a bench player it would likely be Moore who replaces him.

KICKER

Jason Sanders ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) doesn't get too many field goal opportunities – just 15 on the year – but at least he averages just over four PAT conversions per game. The Dolphins will almost certainly move the ball well and score points in this game, the question is whether many of those points will be in packages of three.

Nick Folk ($4600 DK, $9000 FD) is one of the best kickers of the past decade or so, and if the Titans make this a close game this could be a productive outing for Folk. The problem is that the Titans are not expected to make this a close game, which could leave the Titans passing up even the rare three-point opportunity in pursuit of closing the score gap with seven-point drives instead.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Titans ($3000 DK, $8500 FD) have some defensive composure, especially against the run, but they appear overmatched in this setting and that was the case even before factoring in the absence of Jeffery Simmons. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown a rather high total of 10 interceptions, but even if the Titans manage a couple turnovers here it seems like the Dolphins would likely offset that by scoring a high point total.

The Dolphins ($5600 DK, $9500 FD) are much better situated, even if the defense isn't as 'good' overall as the Titans. The loss of Jaelan Phillips was a huge setback for the Dolphins pass rush, but in this game it shouldn't take a lively rush to make Will Levis play poorly. The recent addition of Jalen Ramsey has seemingly taken the Dolphins secondary to a new level, moreover, making it a dangerous spot for Levis.