Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Detroit vs. Las Vegas

Though there's no savaging their season or the Josh McDaniels regime in general, the Raiders are worth taking a little more seriously now that they have Jimmy Garoppolo back at quarterback instead of Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell. It's just enough to make the Lions take Las Vegas seriously, even though Detroit is clearly the much better team and the only one of the two with a hint of playoff ambitions at this point. At 5-2 and notably tough at home, the Lions appear to have a major advantage over the Raiders in almost every aspect of football play. There are some concerns, namely the absence of two standout starting interior linemen in guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow – but the assumption is that the Detroit offensive line should be fine in large part because of how harmless the Raiders defense is. The Lions are 7.5-point favorites and the over/under is up to 46.5 from a 45.0 opening.

QUARTERBACK

Jared Goff ($10400 DK, $15000 FD) might have his limitations but (A) he's the best quarterback in this game by whatever measure and (B) he almost always posts strong production when the Lions are at home. It makes sense that Goff would thrive in domes and lose something outdoors as a finesse passer, and perhaps there's a psychological element of home comfort that brings the best out of the Lions offense otherwise. The Raiders defense is among the worst in the league, and might very well be called the worst in the league if not for Maxx Crosby at defensive end. If the Lions successfully allocate extra resources to stalling Crosby then the rest should be relatively easy. It might also actually help Goff's fantasy interests that running back David Montgomery remains out, because Jahmyr Gibbs' snaps trend toward a more pass-happy offense since Gibbs is a light running back with elite receiving skills.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($9400 DK, $11500 FD) is definitely better than Brian Hoyer and Aidan O'Connell. What's less clear is whether his return makes enough of a difference to make the Raiders a competitive team, a mark they fall well short of with the other two quarterbacks. As much as that isn't all Garoppolo's fault – the Raiders defense in particular is ambitiously bad – but with seven touchdowns to eight interceptions on the year it's clear that Garoppolo's production in San Francisco was always a product of the offense. Garoppolo has yet to play a clean game as a Raider and, while he might improve as the season goes on, the Detroit defense is maybe the best one Garoppolo has faced in 2023, or at least the best other than Buffalo from Week 2.

RUNNING BACK

It's been an incredibly frustrating season for Josh Jacobs ($8400 DK, $14500 FD), who might have been the most expensive player on the board if this game had been played last year. Jacobs' dominant 2022 is far in the rearview, and his 2023 arguably reached a new low against the weak Bears defense in Week 7, running for just 35 yards on 11 carries and catching just a six-yard pass on four targets. Jacobs should do better here just for how low of a bar it is to reach, but the Detroit defense is much tougher than Chicago's. If Jacobs is struggling then it's unlikely that another Raiders running back will do well, but Ameer Abdullah ($200 DK, $5500 FD) usually claims around 10 snaps per game, and Zamir White ($200 DK, $5000 FD) played a season-high 13 snaps last week, but that was due to garbage time in the second half.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($8600 DK, $12000 FD) has his arrow pointed upward, not just because Montgomery is missing this game but because Gibbs already made a strong showing against Baltimore in Week 7, a much tougher run defense than what the Raiders possess. Gibbs will never be a power runner and in that sense can't be Montgomery, but Gibbs is likely to emerge as the league's most productive pass catcher at running back within three years, and this setting could provide a preview of that day. Craig Reynolds ($3200 DK, $8500 FD) is also worth consideration, even if you pick Gibbs. Reynolds is the closest on-hand equivalent to David Montgomery the Lions have, which mean Reynolds might see a considerable number of reps for running between the tackles, especially if the Lions get a lead.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Davante Adams ($10800 DK, $12500 FD) predictably is not enjoying his time with the Raiders, but if they're not going to move him then they might as well strain to keep him happy. Jakobi Meyers ($8200 DK, $10500 FD) is of course a very good player and a strong consideration on this very slate, but it's probably a policy failure of the Raiders offense to give Meyers 30 targets to Adams' 21 targets, which is exactly what happened over the last three weeks. After those two the next most likely pass catcher for the Raiders appears to be Michael Mayer ($3800 DK, $7500 FD), who by now has almost completely tossed aside Austin Hooper ($800 DK, $7000 FD) at tight end. Mayer is a very talented player and one who should soon establish himself as one of the league's best. Players like Tre Tucker and DeAndre Carter draw a few gadget plays per game but are extremely volatile with low ceilings. It's possible that no NFL receiver has ever been used more backwardly than the Raiders do Hunter Renfrow, who continues to awkwardly hang around despite the obvious, pointless contempt Josh McDaniels harbors toward him.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11200 DK, $15500 FD) is questionable with an illness, so his status will need monitoring closer to kickoff. If St. Brown is in then he's among the simplest projections at receiver – he's always a candidate to go over double-digit targets and never falls short of seven or eight. Josh Reynolds ($6200 DK, $9000 FD) should be able to pick up most of the underneath/intermediate slack after St. Brown, and against these weak Raiders corners it looks like a strong matchup for both Reynolds and Jameson Williams ($5200 DK, $8000 FD), though Williams probably won't tap into the intermediate or underneath target share all that much. Kalif Raymond ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) should function as something like the Co-WR3 with Williams. Tight end Sam LaPorta ($7400 DK, $10000 FD) might very well be the lead producer among Detroit's route runners, especially if St. Brown is limited at all. Brock Wright ($200 DK, $5000 FD) could also see a lot of playing time, though he'll need to make his few routes count since he is more of a blocker. 

KICKER

Riley Patterson ($4800 DK, $8500 FD) is generally accurate and is conventionally favored in this spot since the Lions are expected to win convincingly, but he has only eight field goal attempts in eight games and has only hit 10.0 fantasy points once this year, stopping at 10.0 exactly.

Daniel Carlson ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) has been kicking injured this year, which explains his struggles. Carlson is normally an elite kicker, about as good as anyone, so a groin injury would explain why he's made just 11 of 14 field goals and none beyond 50 yards. Carlson is questionable with the groin issue.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Raiders ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) defense doesn't seem to have much going for it. Or at least, it doesn't seem to have anything going for it aside from Maxx Crosby, who can only do so much as one player. All of the details in this matchup imply that the Raiders and the Raiders defense specifically are likely in for a rough go Monday.

The Lions ($5000 DK, $9500 FD) defense, by contrast, could be in a good spot here. The Detroit run defense has been strong this year, and if the Lions can make the Raiders offense one-dimensional then it should be easier to zero in on the Raiders' otherwise formidable route runners. Jimmy Garoppolo has more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (seven) and the Lions defense will be angry after getting whooped by Baltimore in Week 7.