Matchup Edge: Dak's Burden

Minnesota vs. Rams

Open: 46 O/U, MIN -2
Press time: 45.5 O/U, MIN -2.5

It's a bad matchup for Todd Gurley against a Vikings defense allowing the second fewest fantasy points to running backs. The team allowing the fewest? Houston. Gurley, of course, had no trouble with the Texans, so there's nothing prohibitive about the Minnesota matchup. It's probably enough to keep you away from Gurley in DFS cash games, but I can't imagine arguing strongly against him for tournaments. He'll generally be a top projection for each week the rest of the way.

Will the Vikings use Xavier Rhodes to shadow either of Robert Woods or Sammy Watkins? Woods has clearly been more productive and more important to the Rams offense, but I'd still be surprised if anyone considered him the better player. Does the answer to the question of who's better matter given the clearly preferable usage Woods has seen? It's a lot for the Vikings to think about. Whoever doesn't get Rhodes is going to get open. Cooper Kupp matches up the same as he usually does – he's a good bet for four or five catches but hasn't offered much in terms of yardage or touchdowns. If Jared Goff maintains his current torrid pace, though, you would expect Kupp to have a nice game or two before the season ends, and Rhodes' presence should push a target or two extra inside.

I guess I'm leery of the matchup for Goff, though. If the Vikings put Rhodes on Woods, I have no confidence that Goff will throw it to Watkins anyway in that scenario. Placing Rhodes on Woods might severely limit this offense if Goff doesn't start looking at Watkins, which he almost categorically does not do.

The matchup isn't any better for Case Keenum against a Rams defense allowing just 7.2 yards per target to wide receivers. But with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs as the receivers in question, I think you find nothing about the matchup prohibitive for them. If they can run circles around Josh Norman and Kendall Fuller, then they're borderline matchup proof so long as a pass rush doesn't render the quarterback in question non-operational. Still, Keenum has a tough draw against a defense that has forced as many interceptions (11) as it has allowed passing touchdowns.

One or both of Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray should be able to get something going on the ground against a Rams defense allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs. That entails allowing an average of 4.5 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per target. McKinnon is better than Murray and is especially a better pass catcher, but it does appear that Minnesota values Murray for his perceived power element (it's not there).

Green Bay vs. Baltimore

Open: 38 O/U, BAL -2.5
Press time: 38 O/U, BAL -2

Green Bay managed to outwit the Bears, and I didn't see that coming, but I'd be surprised if the Ravens get caught flat-footed here. Brett Hundley hasn't been able to throw to the middle of the field, and I would imagine the Ravens will lay plenty of traps for Hundley on the out routes and curls he's so dependent on. I want nothing to do with the Green Bay offense.

There may be an opportunity for some cheap production on the Ravens' side, though. The Packers haven't been good at stopping the short passes that Joe Flacco almost exclusively relies on at this point, and the potential absence of Morgan Burnett could make things easier for Jeremy Maclin in the slot. I actually think Maclin has one of the better on-paper matchups for wide receivers this week. He has at least five targets in all of his last six games, and he's a very good player even at this point in his career. That he's averaging 7.2 yards per target as a slot wideout catching passes from a quarterback averaging 5.3 YPA is impressive.

It's hard to take Javorius Allen too seriously with Danny Woodhead back. Otherwise, if the Packers offense struggles like I expect, then Alex Collins should get a chance to accumulate rush attempt volume with favorable field positioning. He disappointed before the bye, but Tennessee's run defense is better than Green Bay's. It's worth mentioning, though, that left tackle Ronnie Stanley is out for Baltimore.

Chicago vs. Detroit

Open: 44 O/U, DET -3
Press time: 41 O/U, DET -3

That the line on the game is this close would imply that Vegas seems confident that the Lions offense will come out a bit flat. This makes sense – Matthew Stafford is noticeably worse when playing outdoors, and that dynamic presumably intensifies as the weather gets colder. This game should be dry, though, and Stafford defied this general trend with his extremely sharp game against Green Bay last week.

If Stafford is sharp, Golden Tate is just about a lock to go as Stafford does. After a strong start to the season, the Bears are now allowing 7.7 yards per target to opposing wide receivers, so I don't find the matchup intimidating for Tate or Marvin Jones per se. The question for me is whether Stafford is sharp enough in his own right to capitalize on what should be a talent advantage at receiver. Kenny Golladay might be worth GPP consideration – his catch radius is such a unique threat in this offense, and that could manifest in the red zone specifically.

Danny Trevathan is likely out for Chicago, which improves the projection for Ameer Abdullah. It feels like he's generally lost some of his momentum to Theo Riddick, but this has largely occurred in the passing game. If Detroit is committed to the run in this game – and they should have the luxury since Chicago is unlikely to get out to a lead for any particular length of time – then Abdullah should be in position for a fine effort here. Jerick McKinnon chopped up the Bears defense when Trevathan was out in Week 5, and Ty Montgomery was able to get loose when Trevathan sat last week.

For the Bears, I don't see much point in chasing Dontrelle Inman's breakout game except for in season-long formats. The cold is something new for Trubisky, and the Detroit defense has allowed 11 touchdowns while forcing 11 interceptions.

If you want to bet on the Bears getting the upset, then Jordan Howard would probably be where to go. He'll get all the volume Chicago can spare, and the modest spread in this game gives reason to suspect the game should be close toward the end. If Stafford struggles to the point that Chicago can gain a time of possession advantage, then Howard's power might eventually break a defense allowing over four yards per carry and six yards per target to running backs.

New Orleans vs. Washington

Open: 49.5 O/U, NO -7.5
Press time: 51.5 O/U, NO -7.5

I'm fully fading Samaje Perine in DFS and would only use him in desperate situations for season-long. This looks like a game where New Orleans should run almost at will and score points in relative comfort, which would give Washington additional reason to abandon Perine plays and just go with Chris Thompson in a four-quarter catchup mode. For that reason, I like Thompson quite a bit. Particularly with Marshon Lattimore removing one part of the field, I love the chances of Washington channeling its passing production to Thompson, as well as Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis in the middle of the field.

Thompson has a great chance to go over ten carries in this one, and he might see as many targets against a Saints defense that has funneled an average of just under nine targets per game to opposing running backs. Crowder won't have pushover coverage, but Lattimore increases the chance that Crowder sees ten or more targets, and you have to like his quickness in a dome setting. Davis gets a tough draw against a defense allowing under six yards per target to tight ends, but I think you can still bet on him in season-long formats and GPPs since his target volume is so stable. He also has a lot left in the tank, apparently.

Part of my optimism for Thompson, Crowder, and Davis is also explained by the fact that I've given up on betting against Kirk Cousins. Maybe this is finally the week I would have been right to do it. Center Spencer Long is out again, and I still think my initial logic on Cousins – that Thompson's and Davis' YPT would drop and Washington wouldn't have a complementary threat to offset that drop – is generally correct. But Cousins has kept afloat by varying and inventive means, and at this point I guess I have to concede that he might just be good enough to transcend bad circumstances. Or maybe this week will be his hideous downfall now that I've cursed him.

With the Saints, go ahead and fire up whoever as you normally do. You'd rather not see Michael Thomas on Josh Norman, true, but you can't count out the WR1 in an offense that projects to score among the most points weekly. Ted Ginn is hit or miss, but perhaps his odds of a hit go up due to Norman's coverage. The running backs are locked in as strong options in all scenarios.

Cleveland vs. Jacksonville

Open: 38 O/U, JAC -7
Press time: 37 O/U, JAC -7.5

This game might not have been ugly enough – it's good that we might add high winds and snow into the equation. The only Browns player I have any interest in, as is often the case, would probably be Duke Johnson. The Jaguars run defense has been pretty good with Marcell Dareus around, so I'm not optimistic for Isaiah Crowell, but I also wasn't in either of his two good games in the last three weeks. I don't expect Duke to do well per se, but perhaps he can get defenders to slip in the snow as he stops and starts through a wacky, winding big play or two. But I guess that probably won't happen, either.

What are we to do with Leonard Fournette? Start him in season-long, I suppose, but I'll be staying away in DFS. That is if he even plays with an ankle injury that kept him out of Friday's practice. The Browns run defense has been one of the toughest in the league, and I don't see the need to buy Fournette at his high DFS prices given that and his shaky injury status. Particularly if Fournette is out, T.J. Yeldon is an interesting long shot after playing ahead of Chris Ivory last week.

Blake Bortles' accuracy wavers enough as it is, so do we want to test our luck with him in a potentially snowy, windy environment? Marqise Lee should get a large share of whatever targets there are to go around, and he should be open a fair amount, but the condition of Bortles playing vaguely well introduces some risk. If I use any Jaguars pass catcher, it might be Marcedes Lewis in a tournament. But I'm probably going to just stick with Gronk, Kelce, and Vernon Davis.

Houston vs. Arizona

Open: 39 O/U, ARZ -1.5
Press time: 37.5 O/U, HOU -2

Why are ratings down? Does anyone know why the ratings are down? Well anyway here we have Tom Savage versus Blaine Gabbert. Maybe it will go well, maybe it won't.

Gabbert probably has the better matchup of the two as he faces a Houston pass defense that's been torched regularly after the losses of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. They've allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any other defense despite seeing only the 25th-most pass attempts. I won't recommend using Gabbert, and I don't particularly want to recommend the players dependent on him, but the matchup itself on paper is quite favorable to Gabbert, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, etc.

Adrian Peterson is the ostensible foundation of the offense at this point, and if Houston's pass defense plays as bad as it generally has, then Peterson should have a chance to accumulate volume and perhaps scoring opportunities. As far as his efficiency goes, though, there doesn't appear much reason for hope. While the Texans have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, they've allowed the least to running backs. Despite Todd Gurley putting a dent in their numbers on the season, the Texans run defense has allowed 3.6 yards per carry and just one rushing touchdown to running backs this year.

Tom Savage is a no-go for me outside of two-quarterback leagues as he takes on an Arizona defense with ten sacks in its last two games. The Arizona defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, true, but they've also seen the third-most pass attempts, and a lot of that fantasy production is fueled by the three rushing touchdowns they've allowed to quarterbacks. Given that mobility is evidently a primary weakness of the Cardinals defense, Savage should be at a major disadvantage.

Still, DeAndre Hopkins is tough to rule out after he produced last week. He'll see Patrick Peterson in this one, however, so if he does anything like last week it will be immensely impressive. Bruce Ellington is also in play since Savage seems fond of him, targeting him eight times in each of the last two weeks. Ellington could benefit from target stability if Peterson's presence deters Savage from throwing at Hopkins.

Miami vs. Tampa Bay

Open: 40.5 O/U, MIA -3
Press time: 41.5 O/U, TB -1

Doug Martin has been infuriating to own this year, but if he's to pay off just once this season, then this matchup seems like a favorable setting. Miami's run defense did well in the first month or so, but at this point in the year they've allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs, including the third-most in the last four weeks. It would be somewhat surprising if Miami ever claimed such a big lead that the Buccaneers would need to abandon the run, assuming Martin proves effective at all. If he can't do it against a defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry, maybe it's just not going to happen.

The matchup isn't much worse for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who faces a Miami defense allowing a respectable 7.5 yards per pass but has otherwise surrendered 16 touchdowns versus three interceptions. The Dolphins only have 16 sacks in nine games, so pressure shouldn't be an issue. If so, the Dolphins corners project as overmatched against Mike Evans. The Dolphins are allowing 8.9 yards per target to receivers so far, so Evans should hold a significant advantage. DeSean Jackson, too. Cameron Brate also projects well despite last week's dud, as the Dolphins have allowed 7.0 yards per target to tight ends so far.

Kenyan Drake has been impressive through two games, making him a universally viable play in season-long formats and an interesting tournament consideration in DFS against a Tampa defense tied for the eighth-most fantasy points allowed to running backs. I won't be picking him myself – Damien Williams' presence is problematic, and 108 of Drake's 151 yards over the last two weeks were on two carries. His big-play ability is legitimate so you have to consider the possibility that he breaks long runs on a similar basis going forward, but a 40-yard carry once every eight attempts probably isn't happening.

Jay Cutler's matchup is good on paper. It's somewhat concerning that the Tampa defense looked improved last week, but it's not like their terrible play prior to that point occurred with underachieving personnel. It seems more likely that last week was just a flicker they're unlikely to repeat, Jay's propensity for disappointment aside. The Buccaneers are allowing 8.5 yards per target to receivers so far, which leaves Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker with favorable projections. Kenny Stills should be open plenty, too, but he's probably limited to deep leagues in season-long and tournaments in DFS. Julius Thomas is an interesting consideration given his production of late, but he's much more miss than hit this year. He's been held under ten yards twice in the last three weeks, and only exceeded 30 yards two times this year.

Giants vs. Kansas City

Open: 44 O/U, KC -13
Press time: 45.5 O/U, KC -10.5

What could have been a largely aerial shootout – one in which the Chiefs were never threatened, perhaps, but a shootout nonetheless – looks more likely to be a ground-based game due to strong winds. What does occur through the air figures to be on shorter routes, which favors slot wideouts, tight ends, and running backs.

I think that bodes well for a Kareem Hunt resurgence. Tyreek Hill will remain a viable target on shorter routes since so much of his game is about what happens after the catch, but it might not be easy to get him the ball since he'll see Dominique Rogers-Cromartie in the slot, and maybe Janoris Jenkins the rest of the time. Still, Hill might see a greater share of targets than usual with downfield throws limited, and his talent otherwise dictates that he's a good season-long play and tournament pick in DFS. Of course, Travis Kelce has perhaps the best projection of any Chiefs fantasy option against a Giants defense allowing 8.4 yards per target to tight ends, and a touchdown every five receptions (ten on 50 catches). As a huge target generally playing more proximate to the quarterback than the Chiefs receivers, the wind might not be an issue for Kelce at all. Still, solid as he is in season-long formats, I'm worried that Alex Smith will only be able to support a big game for one Chiefs pass catcher. He never was a strong-armed quarterback, and these winds figure to be consistently over 20 miles per hour.

Just as Kelce should remain viable despite the wind, so should tight end Evan Engram. The same would be true of Sterling Shepard if his illness isn't a problem. The Chiefs defense otherwise isn't likely to be good at covering either player – Shepard should see very little of Marcus Peters, and Engram's unique athletic traits make him a categorical mismatch against almost any linebacker or safety. Moreover, the Chiefs are allowing 8.2 yards per target to receivers and 9.3 yards per target to tight ends. But like Smith, I worry Eli Manning's modest throwing velocity and (unlike Smith) general badness make him a problematic projection despite the general reason for optimism for Engram, and perhaps Shepard depending on his condition.

As long as Manning and the Giants passing game don't collapse, this otherwise sets up for a fine matchup for Orleans Darkwa. He disappointed in fantasy last week, but that wasn't due to his own performance. Darkwa has been running very well for a month now. The Chiefs run defense, meanwhile, is allowing 4.4 yards per carry to running backs. The Chiefs are barely allowing four yards per target to running backs, though, so Darkwa doesn't look likely to do much as a pass catcher.

Chargers vs. Buffalo

Open: 44 O/U, LAC -4
Press time: 41 O/U, LAC -6

Philip Rivers (concussion) is in, so the Chargers offense should be in position to capitalize against a sinking Buffalo defense. The Bills have been reeling since trading away Marcell Dareus, their best defender, and I think it's reasonable to put them on Quit Watch after this new regime tossed aside Dareus, Sammy Watkins, and Tyrod Taylor. Still, Rivers isn't very good anymore and it remains unreasonable to expect anything from him other than targets to Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and whichever running back is on the field. I personally won't be picking Allen this week – the Bills have given up just four receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, and Allen was never much of a threat to score in any particular context. He's more of a PPR guy. Henry has a better draw given that the Bills have allowed 8.1 yards per target to tight ends.

Gordon carries a strong projection for season-long owners due to what should be good volume in scoring position against a defense that's been hideously bad against the run as of late. If he hits as a tournament value in DFS, though, it would seemingly be due to multiple touchdowns – which is plausible enough – because Gordon looks way too slow and sluggish to produce much yardage from scrimmage. Austin Ekeler is the better player right now, and I think he's a justifiable tournament play, too, though you'd ideally only be leaning on him as a bye-week sub in a flex spot in season-long leagues. It's nuts how bad the Bills run defense got, and how fast. They allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs in the first seven weeks, but in the last four they've given up the most in the league, about six points per game ahead of the second-worst team. They gave up 572 yards and seven touchdowns on 112 carries in the last four games, and 28 catches for 204 yards and a touchdown.

I liked Nathan Peterman enough as a prospect, but not so much that I'd consider him or any of the players dependent on him against the Chargers, one of the league's best pass defenses.

LeSean McCoy would be in position to produce, though, if the Bills remain competitive. You do worry about the Chargers selling out against the run and daring Peterman to beat them through the air, but the Chargers have generally been quite bad against the ground game this year, and McCoy could see an additional target or two than usual if Peterman opts to check down against NFL looks he hasn't seen before. You're of course starting McCoy in season-long leagues, and his talent dictates DFS tournament consideration if you aren't worried about the Chargers getting far ahead.

Oakland and New England in Mexico City

Open: 50 O/U, NE -5
Press time: 54.5 O/U, NE -7.5

This game is going to be insanely chalky in DFS but basically everyone involved carries a favorable projection relative to their price. Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, and Phillip Dorsett all project to be difficult covers for a bad Oakland secondary with taller corners. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper should both get open often against a defense that just gave up big numbers to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas despite Brock Osweiler playing quarterback. Derek Carr should prove far more formidable, yet we would expect Tom Brady to exceed whatever considerable pace Carr might set. Oh, and both Rob Gronkowski and Jared Cook are superb plays.

Even the running back personnel are largely reflections of each other in this game. The primary runners of each side – Marshawn Lynch and Dion Lewis – could both put up strong per-carry averages and see work within scoring range, but neither is likely to do much as a pass catcher. If you want to pursue the pass-catching production between these two backfields, the combos of Jalen Richard/DeAndre Washington and James White/Rex Burkhead complete the eerie parallel. If I were coaching this game, I would open up with a no-huddle offense full of draws and screens to try to get the defense to wear itself out. I like White's chances of bouncing back after last week's dud, and Burkhead is intriguing due to how much he runs routes as a receiver.

The NFL often features results that make no sense based on the conventional wisdom we might have going into a game, but this one seems too simple. It should be the highest-scoring game on the slate.

Denver vs. Cincinnati

Open: 40 O/U, DEN -2.5
Press time: 38 OU, DEN -2.5

One not very good quarterback, one awful quarterback, and two good defenses. This game looks prohibitively bad for fantasy purposes, with whatever utility it might have apparently limited to season-long formats. Defenses aside, at least.

You're probably using A.J. Green, Emmanuel Sanders, and Demaryius Thomas as you normally would in season-long, but I don't see the upside to justify the risk as DFS tournament picks. Maybe Sanders, who should see less outside coverage than Thomas against a Cincinnati defense that doesn't give up much on the boundary.

Dallas vs. Philadelphia

Open: 47 O/U, PHI -3
Press time: 48 O/U, PHI -6

Byron Bell almost certainly can't be as bad as Chaz Green was at left tackle last week, when Adrian Clayborn put up six sacks at Dak Prescott's expense, but this still doesn't look like a great setup for Dak. The Philadelphia pass rush is much more intimidating than the Atlanta one, so any gains from Green to Bell may be moot or close to it. The good news for Dak's fantasy owners is this game might have a fair amount of garbage time, and the Eagles have allowed the fifth-most rushing yardage per game to opposing quarterbacks. I wouldn't worry about using Dak in season-long formats, though I'll probably look elsewhere for my tournament targets in DFS.

After giving up a decent chunk of points to wideouts earlier this year, the Philadelphia pass defense has tightened up in the last two months or so. They've given up just six receiving touchdowns to wideouts and are allowing them just 7.1 yards per target. Dez Bryant should see at least ten targets in this one, but his brutal 5.8 YPT isn't encouraging. Still, a solid play in season-long and tournament settings. I would probably limit Jason Witten's utility to season-long formats in a week where we might see some very high scoring from the tight end position.

Zach Ertz is certainly one such candidate to post big numbers at tight end as he makes his return from a one-game absence with a hamstring injury. Carson Wentz should lead Philadelphia to lots of points, and Ertz is basically the lead pass-catching threat in this offense. Ertz almost always goes as Wentz does, and sometimes goes even when Wentz doesn't. Alshon Jeffery finally broke out against Denver, which I think heralded what will be a torrid finish for the talented but slow-starting wideout. Nelson Agholor is very impressive and is certainly a threat to burn the Dallas secondary, but he's probably just a flex play and tournament consideration given that he's averaging fewer than five targets per game.

The Philadelphia backfield should be quite busy and productive in this game, but good luck guessing the workload split. Teams don't normally trade a fourth-round pick for a running back they don't plan to use heavily, but the Eagles seem to have a lot of trust in LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement, which makes me think that Jay Ajayi isn't a lock to hit 15 carries in any given game, even if Philadelphia logs a lot of run plays. Still, Ajayi has a high floor in this at the very least, and he's a candidate to score multiple times, too. If a blowout occurs, Blount and Clement could both eat at Ajayi's expense.

Seattle vs. Atlanta

Open: 45 O/U, SEA -3
Press time: 45 O/U, SEA -2.5

It wasn't long ago that playing a quarterback against Seattle in Seattle was a no-go for many players, but season-ending injuries to Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor might change that here. Running at Shaq Griffin and Jeremy Lane instead of Sherman, Julio Jones just might get open quite a bit in this one. If he does, Matt Ryan should be able to go along for the ride. Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper also of course benefit from Seattle's injuries in the secondary.

Tevin Coleman gets a tough draw against the Seattle run defense, but I would bet on talent and opportunity over the matchup in this case, and Coleman is rich on both counts. He's a pretty clear RB1 classification for me this week.

If the Atlanta offense does move the ball in this setting, it could set up a big game for Russell Wilson, The Seattle running game is unlikely to develop into anything, so Wilson would be very busy in such a scenario. The Atlanta pass defense doesn't look over vulnerable, allowing only the 21st most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but Wilson's unique skill and ability to provoke broken plays renders a lot of pass defense metrics inapplicable in his case. As long as the Seattle run game goes nowhere, Wilson is probably a favorite to provide good fantasy production against defenses more intimidating than Atlanta's. If Wilson does have a big game, two to three of Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett, and Paul Richardson should provide solid returns.