IDP Analysis: Linebacker Draft Values

This is the second of a three-part series in which we'll try to identify players RotoWire has ranked higher than overall industry rankings. By using this guide, you should be able to find values in your draft, which may give you options that allow you to wait significantly later than your competitors to select your IDPs. 

After going over potential draft strategies before this series began, it's critical to go into your draft planning knowing whether you're going to stream defensive players all season, draft players with late-season byes to keep you from having to potentially drop IDPs early in the campaign, or, if you have the roster flexibility, draft the best options and make seasonal moves as needed. Also, as we noted, the amount of IDPs needed can be vastly different from league to league, with many leagues needing just a single player per position grouping (DL, LB, DB) along with a flex, while other leagues will require a full lineup of players. The purpose of this article is to try to address the needs of all as best as possible.

As noted, we'll be looking at linebacker values, and although we'll address inside and outside backers together, if you need to split your picks between the positions, there are plenty of values to help you find success regardless of roster needs.

To begin, we have three of our top-12 LBs identified as potential values this year, and the first one is Zach Cunningham, who we have ranked at No. 5 while the consensus has him just outside of the top-12. Talk about a great floor/ceiling comb — he's posted back-to-back triple-digit tackles in each of the past two years with an impressive 142 last year. Even if he's limited to 900 snaps, he's still likely to nab 130 tackles, but we see him pushing 1,000 snaps and getting into the top-five LBs.

Another fantastic option is Kwon Alexander, who has had bad injury luck in each of the past two campaigns, but he's one of the best in the game when he's on the field. With it looking as if he'll be fully healthy to start the season, we see him finishing in the top-10, while drafters are concerned about the injury history, typically pushing him outside the top 30 LBs selected. At just only 26-years-old, we feel a bet on better health is warranted.

The last of our top-12 values is Leighton Vander Esch, who dealt with a neck injury last year, which is always a massive concern for a person whose career is predicated on getting into collisions, but all reports indicate that he's ready to resume a career that was fast tracking him to superstar status. Due to the nature of the neck injury, we've moved his rank down to No. 11, but he could easily battle with Darius Leonard as the top fantasy LB in the NFL. With a consensus raking of 17, he can often be acquired long after the top options are off the board.

We've also identified three additional LBs who project in our top 24 who are all being drafted significantly later than our projections would indicate. Starting with Anthony Walker, our 14th LB, who's typically being selected outside the top 35 LBs. It's understood that his ceiling has limitations due to the fact he typically plays about 800 snaps. However, he's shown over the past two seasons that he's capable of posting nearly 120 tackles on that type of snap total, and he'll potentially have a clearer path to ball carriers after the Colts added DeForest Buckner to the DL. Buckner will require plenty of attention from opposing offenses, making the lives of the LBs easier.

Another value is K.J. Wright, who posted a career high 132 tackles last year, so there's certainly no sign of decline for the 31-year-old, and even though he had offseason shoulder surgery, he's expected to be ready for Week 1. In each of his last five healthy seasons, he's topped 100 tackles, and we have him ranked at No. 22 while the industry has him typically falling well outside the top 30 LBs on draft day.

Nate Gerry spent most of his first couple seasons as a special teamer, but he took full advantage of his opportunity when thrust into a starting role last year by posting 72 tackles in 11 games. With Nigel Bradham and Kamu Grugier-Hill no longer with the Eagles, Gerry should pick up where he left off last season. Although Philly spent three draft picks this year on LBs, including a third rounder on Davion Taylor, Gerry should be able to hold them off, especially during the odd offseason we're having, which is likely going to be difficult on rookies looking to overtake veterans in established roles. Overall, we have Gerry as our 32nd LB, but he's been a forgotten man in drafts and is being picked outside the top 60.

Finally, we have four LBs who are ranked between 29th and 38th but are all being selected (typically) outside the top 50. After an inconsistent 2019 that ended with 63 tackles (in 11 games), Jarrad Davis was a bit of a disappointment. However, the Lions brought in Jamie Collins and Reggie Ragland, which should allow the team to move Davis around to be the playmaker he showed during his first two years in the league, when he posted triple-digit tackles.

Don't forget about Avery Williamson, who missed last year due to a preseason ACL injury, but he'll be a full go this year, as he resumes a career in which he averaged 104 tackles over the previous four seasons. He should continue to be a strong IDP, though the fantasy community has him typically valued outside the top-50 LBs, which may have much to do with the offseason news that the Jets could consider cutting him. However, even if he's released, Williamson has been an excellent LB for years, and he's still in his prime at 28-years-old, so he'd likely score a starting job quickly.

Another player we like is Thomas Davis, who's doing quite well in his fight against Father Time, as he posted 112 tackles in his age-36 season with the Chargers in 2019. Since there were no signs of decline, why not bet on Davis now that he's in Washington? Even if he shows some signs of aging this year, the fact he can be acquired after 50 LBs are off the board will mitigate any age-related risk of lowered production.

Finally, Harold Landry had a strong second season last year when he posted 68 tackles along with nine sacks. After being used as a pass-rush specialist in his rookie year, the Titans used him in a much more diverse role, and he responded quite well. There's still room for him to add to his tackle totals as he enters his age-24 season and he builds upon last year's breakout, and for a player who frequently can be added outside the top-60 LBs, he's a great upside selection.

Now that we've addressed the linebackers, the next (and last) article in this series will address the defensive backs position. Have a great week everyone!