IDP Analysis: ESPN Defensive Edge

ESPN announced a change to its IDP classification system, changing the Defensive End position to Defensive Edge, allowing the term to include 3-4 outside linebackers instead of just 4-3 defensive ends. It's a change that dramatically boosts the IDP utility of 3-4 outside linebackers, and their addition to the pool substantially increases the depth of the 'DE' position. 

In past years, numerous double-digit sack artists would go unowned in IDP leagues because of their LB classification, an IDP position where they have to compete with off-ball linebackers with triple-digit tackle totals. In this new classification, those days might be gone. A defender with 50 tackles and 12 sacks is useless as an IDP linebacker, but they would suffice as a DL1 in past years. At least a few 3-4 outside linebackers are even candidates to finish the year as the top scorer in the new DE category.

Here are some of the standout 3-4 outside linebackers who are now available for your DL slot in ESPN leagues, listed in generally descending order of anticipated IDP utility.

 
T.J. Watt, PIT

Still not 26 until October, Watt's NFL trajectory leaves room for more growth yet despite posting 27.5 sacks over the last two years. That detail alone makes him a candidate to place first among DE IDPs, yet he also stands out in this group for his tackle production. Last year's total of 55 tackles might prove less indicative than the 68 tackles Watt posted in 2018 – on 50 fewer snaps.

 
Chandler Jones, ARI

Jones has been otherworldly over the last three years, producing 49 sacks in 48 games. He's a uniquely effective pass rusher on a per-snap basis but also plays an uncommonly high snap count, making him arguably the top DE in leagues that emphasize sack production. He generally seems unlikely to go over the mid-50s in tackle total, on the other hand.

 
Khalil Mack, CHI

Mack is already responsible for some of the best IDP seasons of recent history, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him bounce back after a disappointing 47-tackle, 8.5-sack season. It'd seem unusually unfortunate if major decline hit Mack at just 29, which arguably makes it reasonable to hope for a return to his 2018 level of production.

 
Shaq Barrett, TB

One-year wonder or not, 19.5 sacks is the sort of production that compels us to consider Barrett a top pass rusher until further notice. For as much as Barrett's pre-2019 production never stood out, he was always adequate, and he was extremely productive at Colorado State. He also has a lot of help in Tampa Bay's up-and-coming defense.

 
Kyle Van Noy, MIA

Van Noy is the favorite to lead this group in tackles. While he rushes the passer quite a lot, he still doesn't do it quite as much as the other players here. Van Noy is arguably more of an off-ball linebacker than a proper edge defender, but it's tough to tell with hybrids. Anyway, if he functions mostly like an off-ball linebacker in Miami then he has a huge advantage over the rest of the DE IDPs. He's only two years removed from a 92-tackle season, so Van Noy is a legitimate dark horse to finish as the DE1 in ESPN leagues.

 
Harold Landry, TEN

Landry might not have as much pass rushing upside as others on this list, but he's no worse than second-best as far as tackle production goes. If you assume a 950-snap workload, Landry's production to this point would assume something in the 70-tackle, eight-sack range. There may be more room for pass-rushing growth, though – Landry is a very good athlete and totaled 16.5 sacks in 13 games in his junior season at Boston College.

 
Bradley Chubb, DEN

There's certainly some risk with Chubb given that he's coming back from a Week 4 ACL tear. There's also major upside. He's one of the few defensive linemen with the ability to hit 60 tackles and 12 sacks, and in conventional IDP scoring the top defensive lineman in any given year generally produces at least 70 tackles with double-digit sacks.

 
Montez Sweat, WAS

Sweat was reasonably productive as a rookie last year, posting 50 tackles and seven sacks on 693 snaps. If he were to play 850 snaps, that per-snap production would equal roughly 61 tackles and 8.5 sacks. The main risk to that scenario might be the selection of Ohio State star defensive end Chase Young with the second overall pick. Only so many snaps can go around between Sweat, Young, and Ryan Kerrigan. But Sweat otherwise has major upside due to his outrageous athleticism. At 6-foot-6, 260 pounds, Sweat has 35 and 3/4-inch arms to go with a 4.41-second 40 and 125-inch broad jump.

 
ZaDarius Smith and Preston Smith, GB

I'm listing the Smith Brothers in a single entry here not because they are actually brothers, but because they gain DE eligibility at the same time and posted very similar production last year. Za'Darius finished 2019 with 55 tackles and 13.5 sacks on 883 snaps, while Preston finished with 56 tackles and 12 sacks on 880 snaps. They're pretty much equals, so let's just list them together.
 

Von Miller, DEN

Whereas the Smiths are likely equals in Green Bay, it's probably unfair to expect Miller to match fellow Broncos DE Bradley Chubb at this point in time. Chubb will be only 24 in June, while Miller turned 31 in March. Still, he has a chance to emerge from 2020 as the better IDP between himself and Chubb. Miller's eight sacks on 858 snaps last year was respectable, and he's only two years removed from posting 14.5 sacks on 843 snaps.

 
Matt Judon, BAL

Judon doesn't really need any help after finishing the 2019 season with 54 tackles and 9.5 sacks, but it will be interesting to see if the additions of linemen Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe free him up a bit more. Judon should prove an adequate DE2 at the least.

 
Bud Dupree, PIT

Dupree is one of the NFL's more remarkable athletes, but for some reason he didn't break out through his first three four years out of Kentucky. The 2019 season finally saw him realize his potential, though, and his 68-tackle, 11.5-sack showing would have provided DE1 utility had he been eligible there. Perhaps last year will go down as the best of his career, but he'll never see double teams in the Pittsburgh defense with the likes of T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward around.

 
Devon Kennard, ARI

Kennard's per-snap production fell off a cliff when he went from the Giants to Detroit, but he's at times shown tantalizing IDP potential. It's possible that the move to Arizona will put him in position to maximize his skill set, and the shootout-prone Cardinals could certainly invite a lot of pass-rushing opportunities, but his role there might be more analogous to his days in Detroit's amoeba scheme than in his days as a 4-3 outside linebacker with the Giants. Either way, he's a candidate to play 750 snaps or more in Arizona's thin edge rotation.

 
Ryan Kerrigan, WAS

Kerrigan is one of the best defenders of the past 10 years, so there's no reason to doubt the quality of his play. If there's cause for concern, though, it'd be the same as in the case of Montez Sweat – if Washington drafts Chase Young then there will be a crunch for playing time.

 
Leonard Floyd, LAR

The Rams took a former first-round pseudo-bust in Dante Fowler and turned him into a productive player, but a productive one they could no longer afford. Floyd has been a substantially bigger bust yet than Fowler ever was, yet the Rams will hope to pull off the same stunt twice. With no Wade Phillips around, the pass rush shouldn't be taken for granted with the Rams. Floyd is highly athletic though, at least.

 
Samson Ebukam, LAR

Ebukam is expected to start at the outside linebacker spot opposite Floyd. He was the Rams' third OLB last year behind Fowler and Clay Matthews, and it's now or never for the former fourth-round pick after a disappointing first three years in the league. Ebukam is an elite athlete, though, and he's shown some flashes of production potential in the past. He finished last year with 48 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 572 snaps – that would project for roughly 75 tackles and seven sacks over 894 snaps, which is what Fowler logged last year. Keep in mind, that's probably a distant best-case scenario.

 
Whitney Mercilus, HOU

Mercilus was a great player at Illinois and enjoyed a few successful NFL seasons, but his low points give him a concerning overall profile. For IDP owners simply looking for a bargain DE2 or DE3 type, though, Mercilus' 2019 box score of 48 tackles and 7.5 sacks would suffice.

 
Lorenzo Carter, NYG

Carter is listed this low for job uncertainty reasons. The former third-round pick out of Georgia is incredibly athletic – At 6-foot-5, 250 pounds he logged a 4.5-second 40 to go with a 36-inch vertical and 130-inch broad jump – but his production even going back to Georgia has been uneven at best. For Carter to come through as a sleeper DE pick he'll need to hold off competition from teammates Oshane Ximines and Kyler Fackrell, either of whom could prove useful IDPs at Carter's expense.