This article is part of our IDP Analysis series.
Having a cheat sheet makes draft day easier, but there are definitely times when we have players listed in nearly identical spots on our draft boards. Then, when it's time to make the actual pick, we look at our list and have second thoughts. Been there? I thought so — I've been there plenty of times as well. To try and lower some draft-day stress, this will be the second of a two-part series in which we'll use projected win totals to help break ties in player valuation on draft day.
This week we'll look at the linebackers. Typically, teams that are among the worst in the league are likely to be playing from behind. When these situations occur, the linebackers certainly will have extra opportunities to pile up tackles, while their opponent runs the ball more than usual to run out the clock and protect their lead. So, let's look at the teams that Vegas has projected as the worst in the league.
There are five squads projected to lose at least 10 games, and to nobody's surprise, the Dolphins lead the list with an over/under of five wins. Although their offense is a work in progress, it's difficult to imagine that their defense will be able to hold down opponents enough to keep them in games. With the Jets and Bills having shown improvement in the offseason, there may not be many easy games on the schedule.
Players to consider: Raekwon McMillan, Kiko Alonso and Jerome Baker
Having a cheat sheet makes draft day easier, but there are definitely times when we have players listed in nearly identical spots on our draft boards. Then, when it's time to make the actual pick, we look at our list and have second thoughts. Been there? I thought so — I've been there plenty of times as well. To try and lower some draft-day stress, this will be the second of a two-part series in which we'll use projected win totals to help break ties in player valuation on draft day.
This week we'll look at the linebackers. Typically, teams that are among the worst in the league are likely to be playing from behind. When these situations occur, the linebackers certainly will have extra opportunities to pile up tackles, while their opponent runs the ball more than usual to run out the clock and protect their lead. So, let's look at the teams that Vegas has projected as the worst in the league.
There are five squads projected to lose at least 10 games, and to nobody's surprise, the Dolphins lead the list with an over/under of five wins. Although their offense is a work in progress, it's difficult to imagine that their defense will be able to hold down opponents enough to keep them in games. With the Jets and Bills having shown improvement in the offseason, there may not be many easy games on the schedule.
Players to consider: Raekwon McMillan, Kiko Alonso and Jerome Baker
The other projected five-win team is the Cardinals, and I especially like their linebackers because if their offense is explosive, the best weapon against them may be pounding the ball on the ground against their below average defense to keep the "Air Raid" off the field. It's also possible that the offense ends up being sporadic, and, in that case, opponents could spend much of the second half running the football to grind out a win, which is to the benefit of the Arizona linebackers.
Players to consider: Jordan Hicks, Haason Reddick and Brooks Reed
Moving to the teams projected to win six games, the Raiders are sure to take their share of "Hard Knocks" this season! They do appear to be making some moves on offense, but it's unlikely they figure things out this year, and while they added defensive pieces, a quantity over quality approach won't likely translate to wins. And playing in the AFC West ensures they'll have six tough games — yes, even the Broncos will be tough for them to handle.
Players to consider: Brandon Marshall, Vontaze Burfict, Tahir Whitehead and Kyle Wilber
Another squad that's unlikely to have much upside this year is the Giants. It's possible that teams stack the box so heavily to stop Saquon Barkley, that they could find themselves being frequently blown out by halftime. Not only should the linebackers be busy, but this is a good group of players as well.
Players to consider: Alec Ogletree, B.J. Goodson and Lorenzo Carter
The last of our projected 10-loss teams is the Bengals. Sure, they have a potentially exciting offensive system coming in, but they already have lost a pair of key offensive linemen while also dealing with injuries to A.J. Green and John Ross. Not enough? Andy Dalton is their QB. Yes, this team will trail often, and with them likely being the worst team in their division, they'll be dealing with a tough schedule as well.
Players to consider: Preston Brown, Nick Vigil, Jordan Evans and Germaine Pratt
