This article is part of our Game Spotlight series.
This week's article will zoom in on Tampa Bay vs. San Francisco, Indianapolis vs. Miami, and Denver vs. Pittsburgh.
Tampa Bay (3-7) vs. San Francisco (2-8), 1:00
Open: 55.5 O/U, TB -3
Live: 54 O/U, TB -2.5
On the one hand we have two below average defenses, including perhaps the worst one in the NFL, on a slate with precious few shootout indicators. This should in theory be one of the most combustible games available to us. On the other hand, with two offenses as unreliable as these, perhaps we should err on the side of pessimism for the over/under. Even if leaning toward a lower-end projected outcome, this could be the game most ripe for fantasy production even so.
The Tampa Bay side in particular should be bankable, because for whatever his issues Jameis Winston is a far superior option to Nick Mullens. The 49ers' tempo hasn't suffered that much in its descent from Jimmy Garoppolo to the Mullens/C.J. Beathard duo, so Winston projects for especially high usage volume in addition to the already high likelihood provided by the bad Tampa pass defense on its own. Unless you think Mullens tanks in this setting – something that admittedly is a significantly heightened risk with both Marquise Goodwin (personal) and Pierre Garcon (knee) likely out – then Winston should need to throw a lot just to cover for his defense. There's a chance he has to worry about not just that, but also elevated volume just for the
This week's article will zoom in on Tampa Bay vs. San Francisco, Indianapolis vs. Miami, and Denver vs. Pittsburgh.
Tampa Bay (3-7) vs. San Francisco (2-8), 1:00
Open: 55.5 O/U, TB -3
Live: 54 O/U, TB -2.5
On the one hand we have two below average defenses, including perhaps the worst one in the NFL, on a slate with precious few shootout indicators. This should in theory be one of the most combustible games available to us. On the other hand, with two offenses as unreliable as these, perhaps we should err on the side of pessimism for the over/under. Even if leaning toward a lower-end projected outcome, this could be the game most ripe for fantasy production even so.
The Tampa Bay side in particular should be bankable, because for whatever his issues Jameis Winston is a far superior option to Nick Mullens. The 49ers' tempo hasn't suffered that much in its descent from Jimmy Garoppolo to the Mullens/C.J. Beathard duo, so Winston projects for especially high usage volume in addition to the already high likelihood provided by the bad Tampa pass defense on its own. Unless you think Mullens tanks in this setting – something that admittedly is a significantly heightened risk with both Marquise Goodwin (personal) and Pierre Garcon (knee) likely out – then Winston should need to throw a lot just to cover for his defense. There's a chance he has to worry about not just that, but also elevated volume just for the mere fact that the 49ers tend to run a lot of plays (12th fastest situation neutral according to Football Outsiders). Particularly for a player whose chief downfall is turnovers, it's worth noting Winston's matchup is against a defense that allowed 21 touchdown passes versus just two interceptions.
If Winston has a big game, you have to like Mike Evans' projection as much as ever. It's hilarious in hindsight to recall how much of the football community called Evans overrated before this year, because he's on a nearly 100-yard-per-game pace while averaging 10.5 yards per target. Evans' targets occur far downfield, portending major big-play upside with an average depth of target at 14.9. DeSean Jackson is still a good player and therefore has GPP utility in a matchup like this, but Winston seems to target Adam Humphries at Jackson's expense in a way that Ryan Fitzpatrick did not. Particularly in PPR scoring, Humphries carries a nice projection. Chris Godwin is something of the wildcard, seemingly tied to neither Winston nor Fitzpatrick, but he's clearly the team's fourth receiver since Dirk Koetter refuses to revisit Humphries' slot specialist role. Cameron Brate might be the highest-owned tight end on this slate regardless of the site, because with OJ Howard (foot/ankle) out Brate should carry something like a top-five TE projection for the week, but at a very low price.
The 49ers are competent against the run, allowing just over four yards per carry and 6.0 yards per target to running backs, but Peyton Barber could still have some DFS utility if the script remains favorable, which it should so long as you don't fear Mullens. Barber does very little as a receiver, but the script in this game should look similar to the ones from the Week 8 Cincinnati game and Week 11 Giants game, within which he combined for 37 carries for 191 yards and two touchdowns. Jacquizz Rodgers is the reason Barber doesn't do much in passing situations, but he has just 32 yards on seven catches in the four games aside from his eight-catch, 102-yard game since Week 7.
Matt Breida, by contrast, seems to possess both a high floor and ceiling following his effort before the bye, where he seemingly demonstrated his full recovery from a nagging ankle issue by running for 101 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries with three catches for 31 yards and another touchdown. Breida can do damage as a receiver, so even if Tampa establishes a lead, the script should be fine for Breida, who otherwise takes on a Buccaneers defense allowing sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, including 7.6 yards per target at a 77.6 percent completion rate. Breida seems like a golden play to me.
Mullens showed his true colors against the Giants before the bye, struggling against an unimposing Giants defense following his dissection of the Raiders defense the week prior. But this Buccaneers defense is more similar to the Raiders than the Giants, and another strong game could be ahead for Mullens, at least relative to his price on DFS sites. The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but the only reason they're not in first is because they've seen 51 fewer passes than Cincinnati, and 61 fewer passes than the Falcons. The Buccaneers have allowed 25 passing touchdowns versus one interception, so by any standard the Oakland defense was a tougher test. The only reason I'm not giving a full green light on Mullens at his $6,000 price on Fanduel is because of the previously mentioned absences of Goodwin and Garcon. I would have loved Goodwin especially in this setting.
George Kittle is an elite tight end in a perfect matchup, and he basically functions as the WR1 in this offense. I want a lot of shares, as his already high usage could escalate slightly with Goodwin and Garcon out. Whether there's a 49ers receiver worth picking is a different question, and one whose odds have worsened significantly with the announcement of Goodwin's doubtful status. After Goodwin and Garcon, the next receiver in the rotation would appear to be Kendrick Bourne, who actually led the 49ers in receivers snaps against the Giants before the bye. Bourne has to be the favorite to lead 49ers receivers in snaps and probably targets, but there might be more risk than you'd assume at a glance, because he's been dreadfully ineffective this year and just isn't a good prospect. Bourne is quick and might have a decent slot receiver skill set, but he can't really get open outside, where he might need to play more than usual since the only other remaining 49ers wideout realistically capable of playing outside snaps is rookie second-round pick Dante Pettis. Pettis was the third-leading snap recipient at wideout before the bye, so he's a good bet to nearly match Bourne's snap count, and therefore targets. Bourne is still worth selection, especially in DraftKings' PPR scoring, but Pettis is the far better prospect and could be in an advantageous position now that he's been thrown into the fire. Taylor can only play the slot and has seen his snap count dwindle this year as a result, but he might get back into the game plan if Bourne and Pettis have to play outside. James is the wildcard, and I just have no idea to guess whether he'll be involved or how much. I like him as a prospect, but at last glance he was running behind even Taylor in the rotation.
Indianapolis (5-5) vs. Miami (5-5) 4:25
Open: 50.5 O/U, IND -7.5
Live: 51 O/U, IND -7.5
Change is afoot in Miami, where Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) returns from a five-game absence following the starting stint of Brock Osweiler. Indianapolis has shown a varied nature this year, alternating between vulnerable and competent on defense while the offense has shown extreme tempo/aggression at some points versus more modest approaches at others. Miami is a downtempo team with questionable personnel at basically every spot but running back, so if Indianapolis decides to go high-flying on offense, it probably won't be because the Dolphins made them feel more threatened than usual.
With that said, a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck always has some level of appeal in DFS, even if the matchup seems less than optimal. Considering the Dolphins have nearly intercepted as many passes (15) as they've allowed touchdown passes (18), though, I think to wager on Luck is to mostly bet on chaos. With a lack of secondary targets, it's easy to imagine T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle posting strong numbers even as Luck fails to hit value at his current price in DFS.
I say that largely because the Dolphins run defense is so much worse than its pass defense. They're above average against the pass, whereas on the ground they're allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs, including 4.9 yards per carry. This is a blowup scenario for Marlon Mack, who's better than his last two weeks might imply. I can't imagine Mack struggling in this setting, so if he disappoints in fantasy I'd guess it was because Jordan Wilkins or Nyheim Hines vultured a scoring opportunity or two. I like Mash in both cash and tournament lineups.
If you believe in this spread then it would bode poorly for Frank Gore, who typically sees his usage suffer the further Miami falls behind. If you think Indianapolis wins by at least a touchdown, I think you can convince yourself into liking Kenyan Drake as a tournament play. The Colts have been stingy against the run, though, conceding only 3.9 yards per carry to running backs, but Drake does enough of his damage as a receiver that he could come through for his GPP owners even at a cap of something like eight carries. I probably won't be picking him, just because there are other options I feel more secure with.
Ryan Tannehill is cheap enough that, particularly with the catch-up script implied by this spread, he's more than justifiable as a tournament pick. I have no idea whether we should fear physical limitation or rust otherwise with this being his first appearance since Week 5, but if he's himself then I think you have to like the projections of Danny Amendola and Kenny Stills. Amendola is mostly an easier sell for DraftKings' PPR scoring, but Stills' rare big-play ability makes him seem like the better touchdown bet. With Jakeem Grant (Achilles) out and DeVante Parker (shoulder) limited, this might be the busiest game of the year for Stills. Leonte Carroo would be slightly interesting in a GPP if Parker sits, but generally he's off the radar.
Denver (4-6) vs. Pittsburgh (7-2-1), 4:25
Open: 47.5 O/U, PIT -4.5
Live: 46.5 O/U, PIT -3
I know things get weird in Denver, and I know Ben Roethlisberger can occasionally fail spectacularly on the road, but I really like this setup for James Conner and I suspect Denver loses by more than three points.
That's not because I expect the Denver defense to show terribly, but rather because I expect the Denver defense to spend a lot of time on the field, and maybe in disadvantageous field positioning. Case Keenum is a major liability, and he hasn't been any better at home (76.8 QB rating) than on the road (87.0 rating). He draws a Pittsburgh defense with a fearsome pass rush, and one that's allowed just seven passing touchdowns in the last six games, accumulating 24 sacks in that span, including 11 in the last two weeks against teams that combined for just 47 pass attempts. Even with the homefield advantage, Keenum might be at such a severe personnel disadvantage that the wheels fall off anyway.
If Keenum does keep it together just enough for his pass catchers to produce, you'd of course consider Emmanuel Sanders the top suspect, and at least he should run in the slot and move around enough generally to avoid Joe Haden. Courtland Sutton could do damage, though, especially if he gets lined up against Artie Burns. With the pass rush closing in, however, Sanders and tight end Jeff Heuerman might be your best bets for targets, and in Heuerman's case it's worth noting that the Steelers are tied for the sixth-most targets allowed to tight ends, conceding a completion rate of 70.7 at 7.7 YPT.
Phillip Lindsay is an extremely impressive running back and he would be the heavy favorite to claim whatever useful production this backfield might offer in this game. The Steelers have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, though, giving up just 3.8 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per target at a 73.2 completion rate. Lindsay has the speed to break a long touchdown, but that's probably what it would take to make his DFS investors happy. Royce Freeman just doesn't seem like a serious threat in a negative game script, and he only saw 13 snaps last week.
If things go badly for Pittsburgh it would almost necessarily entail a collapse game from Roethlisberger, and to be fair the Broncos defense does boast a respectable home split of 11 touchdowns allowed versus seven interceptions. Chris Harris is the best corner for the Broncos, and he would seemingly be a problem for Juju Smith-Schuster primarily, as Harris is known to cover the slot, and JSS plays there more than Antonio Brown does. Brown could prove an explosive pick if he lines up against Bradley Roby outside, as Roby has been something of a punching bag this year. Vance McDonald has a touchdown in two straight games, and three in a row is a distinct possibility against a Denver defense allowing the seventh-most points to tight ends, including 9.0 yards per target. If Denver fails to pose a serious threat in this game it could harm McDonald's snap count, however, in the event that it opens up more blocking tasks for Jesse James, who uncharacteristically played not even 1/3 as many snaps as McDonald did against Jacksonville (16 versus 52).
Because I like Pittsburgh to control this game, I have to love the projection for Conner, who should see moderate ownership percentages following last week's dud against Jacksonville. The Broncos quietly have one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing 4.8 yards per carry to running backs while bleeding out big receiving production to opposing runners, conceding 7.7 yards per target at a completion rate of 81.5. Conner of course does much of his damage through the air, and if Harris is slowing JSS then a bit of a funnel could work toward Conner's direction.
