Film Review: Concern for Cousins

Atlanta (17) vs. Miami (20)

This Steve Sarkisian thing isn't working. He apparently thought it would be some next-level three-dimensional chess to use Julio Jones as a decoy or/and hook-route specialist after stating an intention to get him the ball more this offseason, or perhaps he's simply found it difficult to get the ball to the most talented receiver in the game. Either explanation points at a person overmatched by the responsibilities of coordinating an offense. If necessary, Jones should be in motion on almost every play to create openings like Pittsburgh does with Antonio Brown. Until then, Austin Hooper and, once back from injury, Mohamed Sanu stand to benefit from unearned targets.

While the Miami offensive line did a better job of creating room for Jay Ajayi in the ground game, Ajayi deserves a lot of credit for creating yardage after contact. That he dropped two of his targets in the passing game doesn't bode well for his chances of adding receiving production, though. I don't understand it – he was a very good pass catcher at Boise State. Miami should move Jakeem Grant to RB and use him like the Bears do Tarik Cohen.

There is no way Jay Cutler is as good as Matt Moore. Zero percent chance. Although Cutler's superior arm strength was cited as a cure for the fears that Moore would reduce the offense to a dink-and-dunk spectacle, I can't remember a time I've seen a quarterback as dink-and-dunk as Cutler and Joe Flacco from this season. Cutler can't possibly have more than a few starts left. Deion Jones made a nice enough play on his interception, but it was more so just a bad throw behind the target. Despite never throwing downfield, Cutler has shown a remarkably consistent inability to put the ball in a place where his receivers can run after the catch.

There was a play in the third quarter where Anthony Fasano clearly committed an uncalled false start, then Atlanta committed a pass interference on a play that should have been called dead. Cutler threw what would have been a second interception to Deion Jones two plays later, but that was overturned on a roughing the passer call on Grady Jarrett. As much as Atlanta deserved to lose for their flat showing, the extent to which Miami was bailed out on that drive was jaw-dropping. Jarvis Landry scored a couple plays later.

Minnesota (23) vs. Green Bay (10)

I'll try not to dwell too much on the Aaron Rodgers injury and just skip to the Brett Hundley talk. Hundley is a big, highly athletic quarterback with a strong arm who enjoyed a very successful career at UCLA, but fell to the fifth round of his draft due to the classic pocket passing concerns – particularly regarding his reads and pocket presence. Rather than use his power and elusiveness to break plays and improvise as a passer, he showed a binary tendency where he was either clearly passing or clearly running, and the latter would often occur too early in called pass plays, leading him to miss downfield passing opportunities at the first sign of pressure.

Hundley showed a similar tendency in this game and, while you can't fully judge a quarterback who didn't have practice reps leading up to a game against a defense as good as Minnesota's, it wasn't the most encouraging thing to see, especially when you factor in Green Bay's issues at offensive tackle. As much as Hundley's mobility might intuitively seem like a good counter to poor blocking, it might actually let a defense kneecap a passing game that much more easily if he doesn't start pulling the ball down so quickly.

Ty Montgomery looked better than I expected him to. He was agonizingly close to a touchdown catch in the second quarter, but unnecessarily tried to extend for the goal line instead of first securing what was a nice under-pressure throw by Hundley. I like Aaron Jones quite a bit, but I still don't think he's as good of a raw runner as Montgomery.

Minnesota curiously put Trae Waynes on Jordy Nelson – I'm not sure whether that's because of undue confidence in Waynes or because they consider Davante Adams the more dangerous receiver at this point. I would still generally expect teams to use their shadow corners against Nelson rather than Adams going forward. Even I can't have much optimism in Martellus Bennett after Rodgers' injury. Whatever window was there is probably closed.

I thought Case Keenum looked a tad better than his numbers, especially whenever he gets to throw deep off playaction. His downfield accuracy has consistently looked good this year. A healthy Stefon Diggs (groin) would likely take his effectiveness to the next level, impressive as Adam Thielen has been in the meantime. Thielen works really well with Keenum on deep routes, but shows run-after-the-catch ability on shorter routes, too. The only thing lacking from Thielen's profile is a red-zone skill set – he's a great bet to produce around 10.0 YPT otherwise. I'm not sure what to make of Laquon Treadwell's encouraging performance, but I generally get the impression that he's a couple years away from providing reliable returns as a pass catcher.

Yeah, Jerick McKinnon is definitely the best running back in the Minnesota backfield. He can't really push a pile and generally won't break a lot of tackles, but his immense explosiveness has finally shined through the past two weeks. As good as his numbers were in this one, he also had what would have been about a 40-yard catch in the first quarter called back on an ineligible man downfield penalty. Latavius Murray is just a backup.

New Orleans (52) vs. Detroit (38)

I think Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara will coexist as productive mainstream fantasy options. Maybe not consistently from week to week, but still in some capacity that's useful in a league where running back production is always scarce. Both players are talented, and with Adrian Peterson gone the two should be able to exceed the utility that Ingram and Tim Hightower showed last year.

Drew Brees will almost certainly bounce back against Green Bay next week, but Sean Payton could make it easier for him by getting Willie Snead more involved. Returning from a groin injury at perhaps less than 100 percent, Snead played behind not just Ted Ginn, but even Brandon Coleman. It would be a substantial error in judgment on Payton's part if he held Snead back at full health – few receivers in league history were are effective in their first two seasons as Snead, who has a career YPT of 9.2 and just turned 25 today. Michael Thomas' owners were deprived of a major fantasy opportunity as he posted a miserable box score, but there's no insight to take away.

Ameer Abdullah is explosive with standout quickness, but he lacks both speed and power, leaving him dependent on good blocking in order for his strengths to manifest at all. He should have a handful of fine games as starter, but he's also liable to disappoint if his line isn't having a good day. He probably profiles better as a rotational back than a clear starter, but Detroit seems content to stick with him for now.

Matthew Stafford struggled as his line repeatedly lost to the New Orleans pass rush. It's a bit of a concern going forward, but I'd generally just chalk it up to the Saints playing well. Their front four has much better pedigree than its results prior to this game would have led on.

The Detroit passing game is really going to hurt for as long as Golden Tate is out, though. His touchdown catch was a reminder of his uniquely good running skills. The Lions desperately need Kenny Golladay to return to provide some length and explosiveness. I have no idea whether it will be Marvin Jones or T.J. Jones who replaces Tate as the primary slot wideout, but I'd guess T.J. and would in any case have much more interest in Golladay for fantasy purposes. It's difficult to explain how Eric Ebron has been such a massive bust, but that's exactly what he is. Darren Fells is the top tight end for Detroit.

Jets (17) vs. New England (24)

There's been some deliberation over the question of who the Jets No. 1 wideout is between Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse, and I think the answer is mostly 'neither' – the two have defined, separate functions, and the one who is the WR1 in any given day is the one whose function was most viable with respect to the opposing defense's game plan. Anderson is the field-stretcher and big-play threat in general, playing generally on the sidelines, whereas Kearse is the slower, steadier option whose denser build allows him to play more on short routes and over the middle. Anderson saw 12 targets in this one because he repeatedly generated easy separation against Malcolm Butler, and he was so close to making a number of big plays on the incomplete passes.

In addition to his touchdown in the second quarter, Jeremy Kerley very nearly had a superb second touchdown on his other reception, which was made on a broken play on the Jets' first drive as McCown impressively evaded pressure and threw on the run, but Kerley fell just inches short of the goal line on a leaping grab. Austin Seferian-Jenkins scored two plays later. Seferian-Jenkins' per-target numbers look bad, but it's largely because his depth of target has been so low so far. He looks quite good, and he has the athleticism to break bigger plays eventually. He also seems pretty good as a blocker and has shown a hot motor generally. It's hard to believe the Jets were able to get him off waivers. Of course, it would be nice if he had held onto the ball on the overturned play where his second touchdown was turned into a fumble-touchback.

The three Jets running backs are all good pass catchers capable of providing fantasy value if the other two are out of the picture, but it's hard to envision predictable fantasy value on an individual basis once Bilal Powell is back. For now, Matt Forte appears safely ahead of Elijah McGuire.

The Jets played very aggressively in coverage, constantly on the threshold of committing illegal contact or pass interference. Against a Patriots offense void of speed aside from Brandin Cooks, this proved a somewhat problematic matchup for New England. Cooks' 42-yard fly route catch right before halftime is exactly the kind of play the Patriots should run more often. Scheme him open – he's your best deep threat and best runner after the catch both. Take Amendola off the field and put Phillip Dorsett in Cooks' spot if you must. It generally appeared like Tom Brady was looking Cooks' way more often in this one, so I'm optimistic.

I'm pessimistic about Mike Gillislee, on the other hand. He's an effective pure runner, but his fit in this offense is dubious at best so long as the Patriots refuse to use him as a pass catcher. Gillislee's presence tips off the run, so he always has to play against a stacked deck. Regardless of whether this is Gillislee's fault, Dion Lewis is a player the Patriots feel comfortable using as a pass catcher, so it's easy to argue that he's the better running back for their approach in the meantime.

Washington (26) vs. San Francisco (24)

I'm beginning to suspect Washington lost something when Sean McVay headed west. As much as Jay Gruden might have intended to execute the same concepts as previous years, Washington has shown a profound inability to do so to this point. The receivers are not producing at a level that can sustain Kirk Cousins' production this year – Chris Thompson has artificially inflated the team's passing production with 340 yards on just 26 targets. That's 13.1 yards per target after averaging 5.4 yards per target the two prior seasons. Even if he stays relatively hot, his receiving production will eventually fall off a cliff, and Cousins will tank too if this offense doesn't find a way of getting Terrelle Pryor or Josh Doctson going as viable downfield targets. They might want to shut down Jordan Reed if his toe will continue to keep him under six yards per target.

I think Thompson's rushing production in this game illustrates something I've suspected all year – the Washington offensive line is not run blocking particularly well. He saw just 33 yards for his 16 carries, dragging him down to efficiency levels that previously only plagued Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley. I think the same thing about the latter two as I always have – Perine is clearly more talented and would definitely be more effective when subjected to similar conditions. As has been the case all year, it won't matter since Washington hasn't reached a similar conclusion. It's bonkers that Gruden could be so bad at evaluating talent that he would give a single snap to Mack Brown, but here we are.

C.J. Beathard had prohibitively bad production in college, but he played through a sports hernia injury for an indefinite amount of time as a starter at Iowa, and he at least boasts a strong arm and decent athleticism. He might be better than Brian Hoyer, but I generally think Beathard's prospect profile dooms him to a Trevor Siemian sort of trajectory at best. With that being the case, I'm a bit concerned for the projections of Pierre Garcon and George Kittle going forward, even if the latter was Beathard's teammate at Iowa.

Carlos Hyde ran well, as he has almost all year. Matt Breida isn't a real opponent in any serious competition.

Baltimore (24) vs. Chicago (27)

It's difficult to conceive of a more meaningless distinction, but Tanner Gentry is the best receiver on the Bears. With Tarik Cohen's pass-catching usage declining, there might be a real opportunity for cheap volume in Gentry's case if the Bears just keep giving him snaps. He beat Jimmy Smith down the sideline on Mitchell Trubisky's first pass, though Trubisky missed him. I saw Gentry very open at least a few other times, but Trubisky either didn't see him or couldn't hit the target.

While the production from scrimmage was lacking, this was a reassuring game for Cohen, who offset his meager rushing and receiving yardage with a touchdown pass. He looked as quick and elusive as ever, and I would imagine the Bears will try to make his upcoming workload look more like this game than the two slow weeks that preceded it. Jordan Howard is of course the lead back here, but they'll need to find some breathers for him after giving him 96 carries in the last four games.

It sure looked like the Ravens showed a clear preference for Alex Collins as the lead running back over Javorius Allen, even if the latter stayed heavily involved and maintained his near monopoly on receiving targets out of the backfield. Either will be hard-pressed to find the end zone or accumulate much yardage from scrimmage as long as Joe Flacco is quarterback.

Houston (33) vs. Cleveland (17)

D'Onta Foreman's box score was propelled by a first-quarter run on 3rd and 1 where the sea parted for 39 yards. He probably could have scored if he had run a little more aggressively, but he also didn't quite look to be at full speed to me. He has a role set aside for him, but it's hard to see Foreman threatening to overtake Lamar Miller this year.

Deshaun Watson is good right now and should get better with experience, but he's going to throw a lot of interceptions this year. His distinctly cavalier style of play can't be separated from the killer instinct that makes him so dangerous, but until he has a firmer grasp of NFL coverages and game speed he will be liable to turn the ball over, especially as he takes on better defenses. He's had it about as easy as possible over the last three weeks while facing New England, Tennessee, and Cleveland. His road test against Seattle after the bye will be fascinating to watch, but I'm mostly expecting bad things.

While Watson should get even better with more reps, I can't say the same for Kevin Hogan. He's a fine if not ideal backup prospect – he's smart, tough, and a good runner – but the natural accuracy just isn't there as a passer. His pick six to Johnathan Joseph should have been an easy toss to Duke Johnson in the flats, but it went way overhead, straight to Joseph. Hogan is well known for occasionally showing punt-like accuracy at Stanford. To be fair to Hogan, he had bad pass-catching personnel all around him, and this passing game has no hope no matter whether it's him or Kizer on the field. Of the Browns wideouts, I thought Kasen Williams was the best, but he's just a possession target.

In a setting of otherwise complete futility, I'm impressed at Cleveland's ability to resist giving the ball to Duke Johnson, their best player on offense. He has crazy moves in the open field – always has. Isaiah Crowell should play off the bench.

Arizona (38) vs. Tampa Bay (33)

Well. Adrian Peterson was probably burning at 120 percent in this one, but even if so, he was utterly convincing. The long speed isn't what it once was, but the short-area anchor-to-burst conversion really stood out, and he showed impressive vision, too. Anyone who picked him up this week might have gotten a top-10 fantasy back the rest of the way. Andre Ellington is just a Theo Riddick in this offense, though a much more talented one. Even Kerwynn Williams was more active as a ballcarrier. You might want to fade Ellington in any game where you consider Arizona the favorite.

I guess that also goes for J.J. Nelson, who saw just one target on 12 snaps. I have no doubt he's the most effective pass catcher on this team, but it would take a John Brown injury or Arizona abandoning the run to safely project Nelson for usage. Arizona likely and understandably consider him a blocking liability at around 160 pounds. I'm not convinced that John is running a 4.34 40 these days, but it was nice to see him find the end zone. Remind me to fire up Larry Fitzgerald in DFS whenever he plays against a team averse to man-to-man – he could read a zone defense with his eyes closed.

Carson Palmer did whatever he wanted against a Tampa Bay defense with no pass rush, but it's important to keep in mind how poorly he's handled pressure the rest of the time. I would imagine his road game against the Rams has a few more hiccups, though he remains a good bet most weeks to post good pass attempt volume to offset whatever inefficiency. Peterson emerging as a rushing threat could slow opposing pass rushes just a bit, at least.

It wasn't the greatest spot for Doug Martin with Tampa falling behind early, but he looked competent against a tough run defense. He's poised for a nice finish to the year.

Jameis Winston has been rather bad this year, in my opinion, so I don't think it will affect my projections for Tampa pass catchers much if Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to continue playing at all. Cameron Brate has established himself as one of the league's best pass-catching tight ends and should keep it going. DeSean Jackson's owners have to find it slightly reassuring that his touchdown catch was a target within the five – this scheme has gotten him involved on more than just deep routes.

Jacksonville (17) vs. Rams (27)

What a monster Leonard Fournette is. Nothing to add.

It wasn't a good look for Sammy Watkins to drop a third down slant on one of his four targets in the first quarter. It also wasn't a good look for Watkins to only get four targets, but this is of course nothing new. Robert Woods has been legitimately impressive this year, and in no small part because he finished this one with five catches for 70 yards on seven targets. Still just 25 years old, I may be guilty of writing off Woods as a prospect too soon.

The Rams did a good job of creating openings for Todd Gurley, but it's also probably safe to say that the Jacksonville run defense remains below the average. Expect him to be much busier as a pass catcher than he was against a fast Jacksonville linebacker crew that allowed him just one target.

Kansas City (13) vs. Pittsburgh (19)

Ben Roethlisberger is no more than a game manager at this point. He struggles with any throw that isn't a screen pass. His interception was thrown while trying to hit a wide-open Antonio Brown on about a four-yard pick slant, and Brown's touchdown catch was on a play that should have been an ugly Roethlisberger interception.

Cutting Martavis Bryant's snaps to make room for Eli Rogers is one of the most patently stupid personnel decisions I've ever seen, and it will only harm the Pittsburgh offense. Again, I doubt it would be happening if Roethlisberger hadn't missed an uncovered Bryant for a 75-yard touchdown against the Bears. Juju Smith-Schuster is good, but if they want him on the field it should be at Rogers' expense.

The Kansas City run defense is beatable, and Le'Veon Bell showed just how much. He had an incredible 27-yard run in the third quarter called back on a hold. He's yet to have a big game as a receiver, but that shouldn't be too far away.

Alex Smith was great all year but regressed a bit in this one. He was still fine, but his downfield accuracy wasn't quite there like it had been previously. Next week's game against Oakland should help, though Tyreek Hill (concussion) isn't a guarantee to be ready on the short week.

What was previously a bad Pittsburgh run defense came out fired up for Kareem Hunt, somehow holding him to 21 yards on nine carries, but he saved his owner from a dud by turning six targets into five catches for 89 yards. He's basically Priest Holmes.

Oakland (16) vs. Chargers (17)

This game should have been high scoring. Trying to guess these things is awfully frustrating sometimes.

To me, it still looks like Philip Rivers is struggling to generate velocity. If not, I don't know why he would be so timid about throwing the ball downfield in a matchup like this. He was quick to check down, and his rare downfield throws were ducks with questionable placement. For now, it doesn't look like he can get the ball to anyone but Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Melvin Gordon. It could have been an ugly game for Rivers if Gordon hadn't stepped up so much as a receiver.

Speaking of which, Gordon was excellent for the second week in a row. He may have been even better than his numbers, almost single-handedly carrying the offense. As a runner he showed a great combination of patience and vision, and as a receiver he was smooth in all regards. He's poised to provide elite production the rest of the way, health permitting.

I can't imagine the justification for giving Marshawn Lynch just 13 carries in a game like this. He was running like he was possessed, the passing game wasn't working anyway, and the game was close all the way through. That he didn't approach 20 carries in such a context may be the single greatest reason why Oakland lost. Cordarrelle Patterson continues to make plays as an off-the-bench conversion experiment, but the Raiders need not rest Lynch for the playoffs if they don't actually make it there in the first place.

Derek Carr seemed to generate good, low-effort velocity in his return from the broken transverse process, so it's hard to figure why his box score was such a disappointment. One of his two interceptions appeared to be the result of confusion between him and Michael Crabtree on a sideline throw. Be it because of Amari Cooper's previous drops or whatever else, it seems like Crabtree is safely Carr's preferred read right now. Cooper might need to earn some degree of trust back to match Crabtree's projections for now.

Denver (10) vs. Giants (23)

I'm honestly not sure if I can recall a more surprising game outcome than this one. After losing Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall, and Sterling Shepard, the Giants somehow took it right to what was previously the league's best run defense, and a Giants defense that couldn't stop the run suddenly proved dominant against the previously hot C.J. Anderson. All this with the Giants looking like a quit candidate as their rather goofy failure of a head coach lost the loyalty of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, one of the top players on the team. Go figure.

Given the highly implausible outcome here, there are probably only a handful of takeaways, and mostly with regard to the Giants. The biggest takeaway is the emergence of Orleans Darkwa, who seemed to decisively claim the lead running back role at the expense of rookie Wayne Gallman, who I thought looked like the more effective player against the Chargers the previous week. Darkwa settled any debate on the matter for now – running for 117 yards (5.6 YPC) against the Broncos in Denver is immensely impressive. This is the same defense that completely shut down Ezekiel Elliott, after all.

The other most notable development in this game was the showing by Evan Engram, who turned seven targets into five catches for 82 yards and a touchdown. That he saw the seven targets isn't surprising – it's easier to throw down the middle of the Denver defense than test your luck with its cornerbacks – but Engram certainly did more with those targets than can be reasonably asked of a rookie. He showed the ability to serve as Eli Manning's top target going forward, perhaps even after Sterling Shepard's return. There's a good chance Engram is a straight up better slot receiver than Shepard.