This article is part of our NFL Offseason Watch series.
If your favorite team needs a boost to its running game, the 2016 free agent class must look pretty exciting, with Matt Forte, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, Chris Ivory, Alfred Morris and LeGarrette Blount all capable of hitting the open market.
On the other hand, there won't be much available at the other offensive skill positions, as the few impending free agents of significant interest will likely be re-signed or franchised before the market opens March 15.
There are still some wide receivers and tight ends with the potential to contribute to fantasy teams next season, but we're mostly talking about guys that won't warrant anything more than late-round consideration unless they land in perfect situations.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kirk Cousins
The upcoming free agent class has four viable starters, but we can probably just go ahead and narrow that number down to two. There's little-to-no chance that the Jets and Redskins don't re-sign Fitzpatrick and Cousins, respectively.
Bradford is the top signal-caller who isn't a lock to return to his current team, though it still seems most likely that he ends up back with the Eagles. He did improve throughout the 2015 season, but Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense wasn't quite enough to make Bradford relevant outside of two-QB leagues as anything more than a bye week fill-in. Kelly has been replaced by former Chiefs offensive coordinator Doug Pederson, who likely has plans for a west coast offense that moves at a more
If your favorite team needs a boost to its running game, the 2016 free agent class must look pretty exciting, with Matt Forte, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, Chris Ivory, Alfred Morris and LeGarrette Blount all capable of hitting the open market.
On the other hand, there won't be much available at the other offensive skill positions, as the few impending free agents of significant interest will likely be re-signed or franchised before the market opens March 15.
There are still some wide receivers and tight ends with the potential to contribute to fantasy teams next season, but we're mostly talking about guys that won't warrant anything more than late-round consideration unless they land in perfect situations.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kirk Cousins
The upcoming free agent class has four viable starters, but we can probably just go ahead and narrow that number down to two. There's little-to-no chance that the Jets and Redskins don't re-sign Fitzpatrick and Cousins, respectively.
Bradford is the top signal-caller who isn't a lock to return to his current team, though it still seems most likely that he ends up back with the Eagles. He did improve throughout the 2015 season, but Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense wasn't quite enough to make Bradford relevant outside of two-QB leagues as anything more than a bye week fill-in. Kelly has been replaced by former Chiefs offensive coordinator Doug Pederson, who likely has plans for a west coast offense that moves at a more moderate tempo. Pederson should be a good fit for Bradford from a real-life perspective, but there's no real reason to get excited about the fantasy implications. There's also no potential free agent destination that elicits excitement, so Bradford's dynasty owners should just hope that he stays in Philly, even if the team also drafts a quarterback.
Osweiler also figures to stay with his current team, which would undoubtedly be the best-case scenario for his dynasty owners. His performance in 2015 was somewhere between 'mediocre' and 'worrisome,' but his physical tools, lack of experience and strong supporting cast all hint at the potential for major improvement in 2016. While Osweiler might normally draw significant interest on the open market, there are surprisingly only a few teams (Cleveland, San Francisco, maybe St. Louis and Houston) looking for new starters at quarterback. Houston is the only landing spot that offers any real promise, but I doubt things will even get that far. And yes, I'm assuming that Peyton Manning will retire.
Other players of interest:Matt Moore (but not really)
Running Backs
The Bucs presumably want to build around Jameis Winston, Mike Evans and the rest of the passing game, with Charles Sims playing a major role. Martin might therefore be limited to about 50-60 percent of the snaps, which would make it difficult to justify the type of contract he might get from a team that envisions him in a larger role. It's not that I think Martin's a bad fit in Tampa Bay, but he would probably be more valuable to a team that wants him on the field for passing downs. After all, his receiving skills may not be on par with Sims', but Martin isn't just a one-dimensional early-down bruiser. With no shortage of teams that could use a three-down workhorse, Martin's combination of powerful running and solid receiving skills would likely draw a ton of interest on the open market. The best-case scenario for his fantasy value would be a huge contract with a team (Miami? Houston? Tennessee?) that wants him on the field for all three downs. If Martin stays in Tampa Bay, we can expect a slight dip from his 2015 production.
It's pretty rare for a free agent class to have two talented running backs with three-down skillsets in the primes of their careers. Martin and Miller may not be superstars, but both are plenty good enough to singlehandedly give a team confidence in its running back situation. Granted, there are questions about whether they can actually hold up to heavy three-down workloads, but the lack of experience doing so can also be interpreted as a positive. Miller has far less tread on his tires than he should, thanks to an incompetent Dolphins organization that persistently underused one of its top weapons. Miller is almost certainly on his way out of Miami and will likely be targeting a team that gives him assurances of a heavy workload. Lamar Miller shall finally be freed.
Forte may be the biggest name of the bunch, but with his running ability in decline the past few seasons, he's not quite as appealing as Martin or Miller. That's not to say Forte won't land a starting gig, but he'll probably end up ceding a lot of carries (and possibly goal-line work) to an early-down complement. Still, there's no question that Forte's new team will want him on the field for passing downs, so he should retain plenty of value (especially in PPR leagues). He's fully expected to leave Chicago, as the Bears want to move forward with Jeremy Langford and Co.
As much as I love Ivory's running ability, there's no denying that his poor durability and mediocre receiving skills will always combine to limit his value. He'll probably have the same role regardless of his landing spot, taking most of the early-down carries but coming off the field for passing downs. It's hard to see how a change of scenery would increase his value, but it probably wouldn't hurt it too much, either.
New England seems like a pretty good fit, with the Patriots possessing other options for passing downs and often nursing the kind of leads that can enable a big second half for the running game. However, Blount didn't really impress in 2015 and will turn 30 by the end of next season. In an increasingly pass-heavy league, it's tough to envision a scenario that leaves Blount with anything more than low-end RB2 value in 2016.
When he first came into the league, Morris was effective enough as a runner to justify a significant workload. With his running ability now in decline, the lack of passing-game skills leaves him without much appeal. Morris will still draw interest for a committee role, but his best fantasy days are in the rear-view mirror.
Other players of interest:James Starks, Chris Johnson
Wide Receivers
Even in the midst of a semi-rebuild, the Bears would be absolutely nuts to let a 26-year-old Alshon Jeffery walk away. That leaves Jones as the clear-cut No. 1 wideout available, with his open-market value getting a further boost from a 2016 draft class that lacks high-end talent at his position. Everything sets up for Jones to get overpaid, except for one all-important factor: he may actually be a much better player than the general perception of his ability. Jones doesn't have elite size, speed or route-running ability, but he's above average in nearly every key aspect of playing wide receiver. Accordingly, his per-target production has been very strong, with a lack of targets and one major foot injury arguably obscuring his true talent. Given the presence of A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, it's very likely that a move away from Cincinnati would be best for Jones' fantasy outlook.
Matthews clearly felt unappreciated by the Miami coaching staff, and even if his lack of opportunities wasn't quite as glaring as Lamar Miller's, I tend to think that Matthews was correct. He doesn't have the physical specs of a top wideout, but he does have the proper skill set to be valuable out of the slot, with enough size to also play on the outside in two-wide formations. Matthews should be able to find a starting gig, but he won't command a huge contract and will probably have to earn his targets. A return to Miami seems unlikely, as the Dolphins are set at wide receiver with Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills.
Regardless of where he ends up, Benjamin isn't going to repeat his 2015 stat line of 68-966-5 on 124 targets. In fact, I'll be very surprised if he even reaches 100 targets, as his 2015 workload was largely the result of his team's desperation. Benjamin says he wants to stay in Cleveland, where he'd likely play third fiddle to Josh Gordon and Gary Barnidge in what could be a very shaky passing attack. Maybe I shouldn't make assumptions when it comes to Gordon, but he clearly deserves to be reinstated and would instantly be the Browns' best weapon. It's easy to forgive when Benjamin is your other option to lead the receiving corps.
Other players of interest:Jermaine Kearse, Rueben Randle
Tight Ends
Antonio Gates can also become a free agent, but I'm assuming he won't have much interest in leaving San Diego after all these years. Green seems far more likely to find a new home and will likely garner interest for starting gigs. Sure, he was overhyped for the past few seasons, but Green does have enough talent to push for TE1 value in the proper offense. There are a bunch of teams with decent passing games that nonetheless have a major need for a bigger receiving threat at tight end – the Giants, Falcons and Texans all come to mind.
Allen can't run like Green and has never caught more than 45 passes in a season, but the 2012 third-round pick out of Clemson is probably the best all-around tight end in this free agent class, offering a nice mix of blocking and receiving skills. Between injuries and the presence of Coby Fleener, Allen never had any real opportunity to live up to his potential in Indianapolis. He's good enough to push for low-end TE1 value, but it would probably require an ideal situation, not to mention improved health. The teams mentioned in relation to Green should all have some form of interest in Allen.
Other players of interest:Coby Fleener, Zach Miller, Ben Watson
