This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
NFL Week 13 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions -3.5 O/U 50.0 (Lions -10.0 O/U 48.5)
- New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys -8.0 O/U 44.5 (Cowboys -4.0 O/U 37.5)
- Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers -3.0 O/U 48.5 (Packers -3.5 O/U 47.0)
- Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs -7.0 O/U 42.4 (Chiefs -13.0 O/U 42.5)
- Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons -2.5 O/U 47.5 (Chargers -1.5 O/U 47.0)
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals -5.0 O/U 44.5 (Bengals -3.0 O/U 47.0)
- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars -1.0 O/U 47.0 (Texans -5.0 O/U 43.5)
- Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings -1.5 O/U 45.5 (Vikings -3.5 O/U 45.5)
- Indianapolis Colts -2.0 at New England Patriots O/U 44.0 (Colts -3.0 O/U 42.5)
- Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets -4.5 O/U 46.5 (Seahawks -2.5 O/U 41.5)
- Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders -1.5 O/U 46.5 (Commanders -5.5 O/U 44.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.0 at Carolina Panthers O/U 44.0 (Bucs -6.0 O/U 46.5)
- Los Angeles Rams -1.5 at New Orleans Saints O/U 46.5 (Rams -3.0 O/U 48.5)
- Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens -3.0 O/U 46.5 (Ravens -4.0 O/U 51.0)
- San Francisco 49ers -2.0 at Buffalo Bills O/U 47.0 (Bills -6.5 O/U 46.0)
- Cleveland Browns -3.5 at Denver Broncos O/U 43.0 (Broncos -5.5 O/U 42.0)
BYES:NONE
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NFL Week 13 Key Injury News
QB - Gardner Minshew (LV), Brock Purdy (SF)
RB - David Montgomery (DET), Brian Robinson Jr (WAS), Austin Ekeler (WAS), J.K. Dobbins (LAC),
WR - Josh Downs (IND), Romeo Doubs (GB),
TE - Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR)
NFL Week 13 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Raiders/Chiefs -13.0 ; the lowest spread is Chargers/Falcons -1.0
- The highest total game is Eagles/Ravens 51.0; the lowest total is Giants/Cowboys 37.5
- There are 6 road favorites in Week 13
- The five highest team totals are Lions, Chiefs, Bucs, Ravens, Bills
- The four lowest team totals are Raiders, Giants, Browns, Bears
NFL Week 13 Line Movement
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
The Lions had high expectations coming into the season and they have exceeded them with a 10-1 record. The Bears also had them, but they enter the game at just 4-7 and in last place in the NFC North.
The Lions opened -3.5 and have seen it climb by 6.5 points and now prices as full 10 point home favorites. The Bears offense has dropped to bottom 5 in the NFL, while the Lions offense ranks in the top 3. The total has actually dropped from 50.0 to 48.0 and bottomed out at 47.5 before bounxcing back up to 48.5. This is significant as 47 and 48 are key numbers for totals.
Detroit has some key players dealing with injuries as David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Taylor Decker list as questionable. The Bears recent history as road underdogs is awful with a 6-13-1 record against the spread in their last 20. The Lions are strong lately as home favorites with a 13-7 record against the spread in their last 20.
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills
The 49ers season has turned into a difficult one with multiple key injuries on both sides of the ball, impacting their record (5-6). The Bills (9-2) come in off a huge win against the Chiefs and a then a bye.
It is hard to imagine that the 49ers were originally a 2.0 point road favorite on the opening line, and now the Bills have moved to a full touchdown home favorite for a 9 point line move.
The biggest reason for the line move in favor of the Bills is that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy lists as questionable with a shoulder injury. Trent Williams and Nick Bosa are also questionable.
The total has taken a dip going from 47.0 to 45.0 and I think we could see this number go down even more as we lead into Sunday night.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets
The Jets season is a huge disappointment and the line move in this game is a clear example of that. The Jets opened as -4.5 point home favorites and have seen it move a full 7 points over towards the Seahawks at -2.5 point road favorites.
The total has crashed from 46.0 to 41.5 based on the poor Jets offense. The concern I have is that the Jets defense is so poor that the Seahawks should put up some points.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
When looking back on opening lines, this one really looks crazy as the Browns were -3.5 point road favorites, and now the Broncos are -5.5 point home favorites for a full 9 point swing.
The Broncos defense is the key to their success as they rank 3rd in total yards against, 6th in rushing yards allowed, 9th in passing yards allowed, and 3rd in point per game allowed.
The Browns are just 3-8 but come in off a huge Thursday night win at home in the snow against the Steelers.
Other Notables - Raiders/Chiefs (-6.0 move in favor of KC from 7.0 to 13.0); Texans/Jaguars (-6.0 move in favor of Hou from Jax -1.0 to Hou -5.0).
