Exploiting the Matchups: Will Bell Go Quiet Week 1?

Fantasy seasons are not won or lost in the first week.

Sometimes you can be down big at halftime, make adjustments, lean on unexpected contributors and destroy the hopes and dreams of the Atlanta Falcons. Oh, wait. That's real football.

And because of the single-most epic comeback in sports history, the Patriots have the pleasure of bringing us the first game of a new season. Already, just as they did in the Super Bowl, they're ready to lean on different weapons than they have in the past. It's a part of the game (and the preseason, especially) that's just unfortunate. It's also another Patriot lesson telling us why we should not sweat those Week 1 choices as heavily.

The unexpected is going to inevitably happen. That's what you get with a violent, unrelenting sport that always has someone ready to stake his claim in the league. There are an unusual number of rookies ready to make major contributions immediately. We just don't know who will be most helpful among them yet. And there are a lot of old faces in new places, with much to be determined about their scheme fits and what they have to give in their new surroundings. Of course, there's also coaching changes that will have ripple effects across many teams.

As it is every year, the first week of the season is the toughest to predict because of these changes. Some trends will carry over from last year, sure, but many, many things we recall from recent years will resemble completely different things by the end of the month. The best advice I can offer for this first foray into 2017 fantasy football is to set the lineup, save the tinkering for future weeks and let the joy of the draft season carry over into the first week of new football.

Looking at the carnage that was draft season, here's a quick rundown of where I'm most heavily invested:

QB – Aaron Rodgers, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton

RB – Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon, Ty Montgomery, Mike Gillislee, Doug Martin, Samaje Perine, James Conner

WR – Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, Kelvin Benjamin, DeVante Parker, Jamison Crowder, Kenny Britt, Cooper Kupp (Kupp is my super sleeper for Week 1, btw)

TE – Jimmy Graham, Tyler Eifert, Kyle Rudolph, Austin Hooper, Jared Cook

And guys I'm disappointed I did not get anywhere include, in no particular order:

Christian McCaffrey, Carlos Hyde, Isaiah Crowell, Marshawn Lynch, A.J. Green, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce

OK, so let's get on with the reason you're here. This is my fourth year writing this column. If you're not familiar with it, here's the essential premise: the "upgrades" are players who are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top-20 RB/WR, top-10 QB/TE) but are set up to raise their production, and the "downgrades" are players you're usually not benching but for whom you may want to consider replacements.

This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece, but rather my goal is to provide some perspective you may not have considered to help make those tough decisions less tough and more effectively remove your brain from those "no-brainer" choices. Whether it's defensive challenges, shootout probabilities, key injuries, location, weather, etc. – basically anything that might impact a guy's value – I'll focus each week on a handful of players at each skill position to provide some perspective on who is at an advantage or disadvantage based on the matchups, accounting for all factors.

Now that you get the idea, away we go.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Carson Palmer, ARZ at DET

The Lions allowed a ridiculous 106.5 passer rating in 2016 and did little to upgrade a defense that gave up the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks a year ago. Palmer may not have many weapons beyond Larry Fitzgerald, a finally healthy John Brown and all-world tailback David Johnson, but frankly, he doesn't need them this week.

Eli Manning, NYG at DAL

The Cowboys replaced last year's starting corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr with a journeyman who couldn't stick around in a dreadful Philadelphia secondary (Nolan Carroll) and a rookie better known for his hard-hitting in college than his cover skills (Chidobe Awuzie). Their first test: line up across from Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall, authors of a combined 11 career 1,000-yard seasons. Meanwhile, Dallas has nearly no pass rush and Manning also has super-athlete tight end Evan Engram, slippery slot receiver Sterling Shepard and receiving back Shane Vereen to kill the Cowboys underneath and up the seams. It's really just unfair.

Sam Bradford, MIN vs. NO

The Saints' defense will be better this year, but it will take time. The pass rush is still limited to two players. Manti Te'o is coming off a season stolen by an Achilles injury. A.J. Klein has never been a full-time starter, and their best cornerback is a rookie. Bradford's offensive line doesn't even need to be better than last year's train wreck for him to slice up this group with a fully healthy Stefon Diggs, the steady duo of Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph, and shiny new dynamo, Dalvin Cook. If Andrew Luck owners are looking for a potential waiver-wire replacement, look no further.

Jared Goff, LAR vs. IND

Looking alarmingly competent in preseason, Goff could be poised to take serious strides in Year 2 after a major dud of a rookie campaign. New coach Sean McVay is an offensive whiz and the weapons race in L.A. is suddenly interesting now that Goff has Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and some young tight ends to target. Tack on an offensive line overhaul and the Rams should resemble a competitive offense. With a lifeless Colts defense on tap and minus it's one true standout – cornerback Vontae Davis (groin) – Goff is a sneaky option for two-quarterback and superflex leagues.

DeShone Kizer, CLE vs. PIT

The Browns are likely to lean on their ground game with Kizer making his regular-season debut, but how long can that possibly last against what should be one of the best offenses in the league? With a live arm that can make all the NFL throws and legs to churn out yards when he's in trouble, Kizer will turn garbage time into a healthy start for two QB formats.

Running back

Adrian Peterson, NO at MIN

In 2014, in his first season as a Raven after 13 years as a Panther, future Hall of Famer Steve Smith faced Carolina in September. The exceptionally competitive, fiery and proud Smith tortured his old team for seven catches, 139 yards and two touchdowns. His will was simply too much. His fired burned too hot. In the lights of Monday Night Football, Peterson, the man who ran for nearly 12,000 yards and 100 scores in a decade wearing purple, will get his shot at emphatically showing his former employer why it was a bad idea to get rid of him, just like Smith. Who is willing to bet against him?

Mike Gillislee, NE vs. KC

Gillislee is in a crowded situation that was blown out of proportion all summer. The trio of James White, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis excel as pass catchers first and foremost, and likely will cannibalize each other's numbers while leaving the heavy lifting to Gillislee. In four of the last seven years, LeGarrette Blount, Stevan Ridley and BenJarvus Green-Ellis had their turns being that two-down thumper for New England and produced seasons of 1,000-plus yards and 10-plus touchdowns. In the first test without Julian Edelman, the Pats will do what they do: remove a team's strength. A power ground game would slow the fierce pass rushing of Justin Houston and Dee Ford and limit Eric Berry's opportunities as a ballhawk.

Tevin Coleman, ATL at CHI

Coleman grew up in Chicago a Bears fan. This is his first time playing them. The matchup is good with no monsters residing in the midway, but this is really about that extra motivation. Coleman exploded last year with 14 touchdowns in 16 games (counting playoffs) despite playing a complete complementary role to Devonta Freeman. Against a Bears D that can't account for his speed and receiving ability, he'll pick up right where he left off when he cashed in a score in all three Falcons playoff games.

Bilal Powell, NYJ at BUF

"Boom Boom" Powell could be the king of garbage time among running backs this year. The Jets figure to be losing late in nearly every game and even a meeting with their top tanking competition shouldn't change that. When Gang Green looks to throw it late, Powell may rack up a half dozen catches versus a Buffalo linebacker corps that has absolutely no prayer of covering him in the flat. With the yards he'll rack up he's more than just a PPR stud.

Jonathan Stewart, CAR at SF

A front seven that added Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster in the first round of the draft and returns veteran stalwart NaVorro Bowman from injury should make a big difference for what was an epically bad run defense last year. In Week 1, however, those improvements might not be felt. With Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey and Stewart, the Panthers have perhaps the most diverse and dynamic ground attack in football. And don't be fooled, Stewart, who happens to outweigh Foster – and many linebackers for that matter – will be plenty involved to start the year. In a game that should see Carolina move the ball consistently, 12-15 carries and goal-line work should make for a healthy flex.

Terrance West, BAL at CIN

The math on this one is simple. Vontaze Burfict, easily Cincinnati's best run stuffer and tackler, is suspended. Joe Flaccojust returned from the back ailment that wiped out his preseason and probably is not feeling so hot. Flacco also has had little time to create any chemistry with Jeremy Maclin or Danny Woodhead. That leaves West to lead this offense in what could easily be a defensive slugfest. Expect 20-plus carries for the Ravens' primary runner.

Wide Receiver

Kelvin Benjamin, CAR at SF

Benjamin looked like a man among boys in the preseason, a.k.a. how he often looked during a stellar rookie campaign in 2014 before a torn ACL wiped out his sophomore year and slowed him last season. Two years removed from the injury, the 6-foot-5 matchup nightmare might be in the best physical condition of his career. He recently dedicated his 2017 efforts to his mother, who passed away unexpectedly a week before training camp. With his motivation almost as big as his hulking frame, Benjamin will be releasing a lot of emotion on the nondescript and unprepared group of San Francisco cornerbacks. When he becomes a lineup fixture, this will likely go down as his only "upgrade" of the season.

Larry Fitzgerald, AZ at DET

Fitzgerald has gotten off to a scorching start each of the last two Septembers, which makes sense for the 34-year-old since his age won't catch up to him until November, just as it has two years running. Fortunately, a friendly defense will make that hot start even easier this year. Only four teams allowed more receiving touchdowns to wideouts in 2016, and Detroit's embarrassing secondary saw few offseason improvements to help it handle the legend's route running and savvy veteran tricks Fitzgerald brings to Motown.

Jamison Crowder, WAS vs. PHI

The Eagles defense boasts a loaded front seven that's built to stuff the run and collapse the pocket in a hurry. That means Kirk Cousins will be throwing often and want to unload the ball quickly. When he does he'll look to Crowder whose quick-twitch route-running prowess is too hard to mirror in the first five yards of a route. Volume will be the name of the game for this dynamic playmaker who will be counted on to move the chains often Sunday.

Rishard Matthews, TEN vs. OAK

Matthews may not be viewed as such given the offseason additions of rookie first-round pick Corey Davis and veteran Eric Decker, but he remains Tennessee's No. 1 wide receiver. After a slow start to 2016, Matthews erupted for nine touchdowns in the final 12 games and at least 100 yards or a score in 10 of those contests. In Week 3 last year, before he and Marcus Mariota were on the same page, he only posted 32 yards versus the Raiders. With Davis limited after missing all of preseason with a hamstring injury, Matthews is primed to exact some payback on a mediocre Oakland secondary in a game that could lead all games in points.

Marquise Goodwin, SF vs. CAR

Starting outside corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley have excellent size, as both are north of 6-foot, 200. But they're 4.5 guys. As in, they're not fast. With speed their kryptonite, neither will like lining up opposite Goodwin's blistering 4.2 wheels. Want evidence of their struggles? Holding the same starting gigs last year, they gave up double-digit fantasy games to the following burners: Brandin Cooks, J.J. Nelson, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett and DeSean Jackson. And that's not counting the insane 300-yard day Julio Jones sprinted to against them. Goodwin has shown greatly improved route-running chops and more sure hands in his brief time with Kyle Shanahan. Here's betting his big preseason will extend to Week 1.

Tight End

Evan Engram, NYG at DAL

No defense gave up more points to tight ends in 2016 than the Cowboys and that was with Sean Lee in the lineup all year. Jaylon Smith suiting up won't change that immediately, and with all the safety attention Beckham and Marshall will demand, the middle of the field should be wide open for Engram and his 4.4 speed to exploit in his regular-season debut. Built like Demaryius Thomas, Big Blue's first-round pick is will be Ben McAdoo's ultimate chess piece in this one.

Jason Witten, DAL vs. NYG

With Ezekiel Elliott in the lineup the Giants have to first and foremost concern themselves with Dallas' ground game. That means Landon Collins will be spending an awful lot of time in the box to prevent Elliott gouging them for huge runs. Why does this concern Witten, you ask? Because Collins is the only member of the Giants' back seven who can check him one-on-one. Even at the ripe age of 35 and as slow as the John Deere he cuts his grass with, Witten can get open versus middle linebacker B.J. Goodson all day and chip away at a Giants D that allowed the fourth most yards to tight ends in 2016.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Drew Brees, NO at MIN

The Saints were already going to be a more ground-based team this year, and that transition will be magnified in Week 1. Not only is it the Peterson revenge game, but Brees will also be without No. 2 receiver Willie Snead due to suspension. Although the future Hall of Famer is normally a no-brainer start in primetime games, this situation warrants brain activity. He's on the road facing a loaded Vikings defense returning nearly everyone from a group that finished 2016 with 41 sacks, 14 interceptions and tied for the second-fewest yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6). Despite Brees' immense talent, a disappointing performance is more likely than not.

Philip Rivers, LAC at DEN

In the 12 times Rivers has faced Denver since Von Miller was drafted in 2011 he's thrown 18 touchdowns and 16 interceptions against his division rival and reached 250 passing yards just four times with a high of 267. With shutdown corners Chris Harris and Aqib Talib making it near impossible to complete anything easy outside the hash marks, there's no reason to expect the trend to change this year.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. NYG

Elliott will join Prescott in the backfield for at least one week before his suspension begins. Against the Giants' loaded secondary and fearsome pass rush – which limited Prescott to 42-of-82 passing for one score and two picks in two games last year – rest assured Elliott will see 20-plus carries while Dallas tries to grind out a win. Translation: Prescott throwing less against an elite defense is not a recipe for fantasy points.

Running Back

Le'Veon Bell, PIT at CLE

Bell had 201 scrimmage yards and a score on 38 touches last year in his only meeting with Cleveland. But that came on Nov. 20 seven games into his suspension-shortened season when he was in peak form, a form he won't be in after spending his offseason recovering from core muscle surgery and staying away from team activities with his contract dispute. Pittsburgh is used to being without Bell in Week 1 given that he's been suspended or injured in three of his four career season openers, so don't be surprised when the Steelers' loaded offense leans on a dynamic aerial attack and works in rookie James Conner for a roughly even timeshare with Bell. If you took him second overall in seasonal formats, it's certainly hard to sit him, so this is more a suggestion for daily players. Don't expect his usual returns.

Leonard Fournette, JAC at HOU

The top running back in the 2017 draft is capable of having a phenomenal career. He's an athletic wonder cut from the physical cloth of a Marvel character. But so are J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, members of the first front seven that will greet him to the league. With Brian Cushing, Benardrick McKinney and Whitney Mercilus rounding out a front seven that might pack a greater punch than any in the league, Fournette could be in for a long day – especially with Blake Bortles striking precisely zero fear into a Houston defense playing for the heart of a city that's feeling very defeated.

Lamar Miller, HOU vs. JAC

Miller is in a similar boat to Fournette. Jacksonville is a poor man's Houston this year in the front seven, but they also boast one of the top corner tandems in the league. For a Texans offense led by Tom Savage and with no receiving weapons beyond DeAndre Hopkins, moving the football is going to be a major chore. With corners who can play on islands, don't be surprised if Miller faces eight-man boxes the vast majority of the game. For a guy who produced more than 4.0 yards per carry just six times in 2016 (counting playoffs), that does not bode well.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. JAC

Calling it now: Jalen Ramsey will establish a reputation this year as the best cornerback in the NFL. His reputation within fantasy circles will be akin to that possessed by Darrelle Revis circa 2009. Hopkins snatched only 13 of 30 targets in two matchups with Ramsey last season and will be playing just his third full game with Savage under center. Sure, the Pro Bowl wideout will see a huge target volume with Will Fuller (collarbone) and Jaelen Strong (suspension) sidelined, but facing Ramsey and without left tackle Duane Brown protecting Savage, there may not be many valuable targets.

Michael Thomas, NO at MIN

With Snead suspended, Thomas will be drawing an awful lot of love from a very good Vikings secondary. Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith double teams could make for a rough start to what otherwise figures to be a promising second campaign for one of 2016's biggest breakout stars. He's tough to bench given what it cost to draft him, his all-world quarterback and the potential target volume, but his upside looks badly capped this week under the circumstances.

Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, LAC at DEN

See Rivers, Philip. Allen may find some more success in the middle of the field if he can avoid being shadowed on every play by Harris or Talib (he did turn in a 9-73-1 effort in 2014 in one of his last meetings with Denver), but in his first game back from the ACL injury, on the road in that thin "Mile High" air, no thank you. There are better options. That goes double for Williams, who is still fighting a groin injury.

T.Y. Hilton, IND at LAR

Hilton's fantasy value will be torpedoed by Scott Tolzien for at least one week. During their only pairing in 2016 versus Pittsburgh, the league-leader in receiving yards produced only 54 and struggled against constant double teams. Facing a Wade Phillips defense that will know how to take away a team's strength, expect pretty much the same.

Tight End

Jordan Reed, WAS vs. PHI

Sure, Reed is you're clear-cut No. 1 tight end given the draft capital it undoubtedly cost to obtain him. But at a deep position, you can do better this week. Malcolm Jenkins is one of the most underrated safeties in football and in 2016 teamed with an athletic trio of linebackers to limit every tight end the Eagles faced to a league-low 414 yards, including only 10 by Reed in his lone matchup. Meanwhile, Philly's weakness at corner led to the third-most yards in the league to wide receivers last year. With only Ronald Darby upgrading that group, expect the trend to continue in a new campaign.

Martellus Bennett, GB vs. SEA

Aaron Rodgers is as good a quarterback as there is in the league at exploiting matchups and as likely as any to burn even the best coverage. Even still, banking on him testing a Seattle defense with Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas in the back seven with his new toy tight end when he has so many other weapons is a bit chancy. After all, the Seahawks allowed only three touchdowns to tight ends in 2016 even with Thomas missing five games and change.