Exploiting the Matchups: Week 6 Start/Sit

It's. Too. Easy.

Can't get in the way of pass catchers. Can't touch passers. Hell, if you're Clay Matthews, you can't give a quarterback a pillow and warm glass of milk on the way to the ground.

The obscene number of roughing-the-passer penalties has led to huge increases in passing yards and points, as they constantly extend offensive possession and prevent defenses from playing with the tenacity needed to end drives.

The results are staggering. Through nearly a third of the season, 20 quarterbacks remain on pace for 4,000-yard passing seasons and 36 players can reach 1,000 yards receiving. When injuries are factored into the equation, we can imagine something like 25-to-35 percent of the players on these tracks fall just short, but even still, as it stands entering Week 6, the aerial fireworks are bonkers.

The video-game numbers are making it harder than ever to select starting lineups because fantasy benches are getting packed with so many tempting options. The two best pieces of advice I can offer to combat this are simple: (1) Try getting action in the biggest expected shootouts every week, and (2) Trust your gut.

Before getting into what you're here for, a quick update on the column's structure: Due to the scarcity of quality tight ends, this column will not always include a downgrade at the position. It simply does not make sense many weeks. The "top 10" tight ends – whoever those guys are after Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski and George Kittle – are a moving target most weeks anyways, so there's no sense in downgrading guys with whom we're all stuck depending on due to the limited options. So is life in 2018.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier -- or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Jameis Winston, TB at ATL

It will be legitimately shocking if both quarterbacks in this divisional shootout don't top 350 yards with multiple touchdowns. In the cozy conditions of its dome, Atlanta has averaged 34.7 points. Now they'll welcome a defense that allowed Mitchell Trubisky to throw for over 350 yards and six touchdowns in a little over one half of football. After an embarrassing loss last week, the Falcons offense should be sharp. When Tampa Bay has to air it out in response, Winston will take advantage of a loaded group of receivers en route to a big day against a defense that's given up three touchdowns to four straight quarterbacks, including at least 335 yards through the air in all three home games.

Andy Dalton, CIN vs. PIT

The Bengals' defense stepped up late versus the Dolphins, but a meeting with the high-powered Steelers offense may more closely resemble their thrilling shootout victory over Atlanta in which the teams combined for 73 points, 756 passing yards and six touchdowns. That means Dalton, who's thrown for nine of his 12 scores when attempting more than 40 passes, should fare quite nicely against a Steelers defense that's allowed the most touchdowns and second-most passing yards to opposing signal callers.

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. LAC

It's starting to look like Mayfield owners get the added benefit of a fifth quarter of action, considering the Browns' penchant for playing overtimes, but with all kidding aside, the rookie is still averaging approximately 280 yards per four quarters (he played a little more than one half in his Week 3 debut). He has yet to pile up the touchdowns, but with the steady yardage, those will come eventually. This week he welcomes a defense into town that's given up more passing scores (11) than all but four teams, while also allowing a robust 8.6 YPA. With the Chargers presenting the best offense the Browns will have faced since Mayfield took over, a potential scoreboard deficit could translate to a true breakout performance.

C.J. Beathard, SF at GB

Turnovers will happen. But so will plenty of garbage yards and points. In the end, versus an Aaron Rodgers-led offense that's looking to get on track and a defense that is susceptible to big plays -- four completions of at least 45 yards versus QBs not named Mitchell Trubisky or Josh Allen -- Beathard will produce, just like he has in consecutive weeks in which he totaled nearly 650 yards with five scores. He's not what you'd call the ideal bye-week replacement, but he's an excellent option for deep leagues or two-quarterback games.

RB

Ronald Jones II, TB at ATL

Is this real life? I'm afraid so. The rookie formerly known as "Healthy Scratch" is a viable flex starter this week and could be a rock star in daily given the bargain-basement price tag. Here's the receiving yardage the Falcons have allowed opposing tailbacks to pile up in the last four contests since losing the rangy Deion Jones in Week 1: 102, 131, 55, 75. They've also yielded two rushing touchdowns in consecutive weeks and at least 185 scrimmage yards to two different backs in this four-game disaster. It's true that Jones was not known for his receiving ability coming into the league, and he did log just 11 touches in his debut versus Chicago, but let's not forget the investment Tampa Bay has made in the 38th overall selection in the draft. Jones possesses explosive ability that Peyton Barber – he of 148 yards on 50 carries – simply does not have. Coming out of the bye week, the Bucs should give Jones a full opportunity to display the blend of vision and speed that led to him piling up more than 2,500 yards and 31 TDs on the ground in his final two years at USC.

Bilal Powell, NYJ vs. IND

During their three-game losing skid, the Colts have relinquished 463 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns to running backs, with four different tailbacks tallying at least 75 scrimmage yards. Coming off his best rushing performance of the season with 99 yards on 20 carries, it's actually Powell -- not Isaiah Crowell, the league's third-leading rusher -- who tops the Jets' backfield in touches. With at least 73 scrimmage yards in four of five contests and a low of 52, Powell is a high-floor flex with upside this week.

Alfred Morris, SF at GB

When they were not shutting out the offensively challenged Bills over the last three weeks, the Packers were getting gashed by opposing running backs. Adrian Peterson blasted them for 120 yards and two scores, and the "Thunder" and "Faster Thunder" duo of LeGarrette Blount and Kerryon Johnson kept the good times rolling against them with two TDs for the former and 85 scrimmage yards for the latter. Although the 49ers are unlikely to steal a win in Lambeau, it would still be a surprise if Morris did not get upwards of 15-to-20 touches with Matt Breida expected to be sidelined by a sprained ankle. In three games with at least 14 touches, Morris has ground out at least 80 scrimmage yards or a score in each, even chipping in at least 30 receiving yards twice.

Mike Davis, SEA vs. OAK (London)

It's dangerous to trust a Pete Carroll backfield these days, but it's looking like it will be a two-headed monster for the foreseeable future, and surprisingly first-round draft pick Rashaad Penny looks like the odd-man out. Davis, the current No. 2 back behind Chris Carson, has played like a man possessed the last two weeks, making defenders look silly with sharp cuts and power en route to 199 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns, ripping off 5.1 YPC in the process. Against a Raiders defense that's been owned by tailbacks the last two weeks -- 422 scrimmage yards and five TDs -- Carson and Davis will get theirs again.

Latavius Murray, MIN vs. ARI

In the last two weeks, the quartet of Mike Davis, Rashaad Penny, Matt Breida and Alfred Morris racked up 325 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns against a Cardinals defense that has been the friendliest to opposing running backs through five games. When – not if – but when Murray gets the heavier workload between he and the gimpy Dalvin Cook, the 230-pound veteran back should be in line for his best game of the season. After all, he just turned 13 touches into 56 yards versus an Eagles defense that's given up the third-fewest fantasy points to the position.

WR

Josh Gordon, NE vs. KC

Gordon has caught five passes in his three appearances this season, generating 99 yards and two touchdowns. In what could be the shootout of the week, that could be his final stat line for the night. After bringing in a 34-yard heave from Tom Brady for his first score as a Patriot (and Brady's 500th career passing touchdown), Gordon undoubtedly gained major trust points from the reigning league MVP. If Patrick Mahomes makes Brady air it out, expect Gordon to be a bigger part of the action than he's been thus far. With his ability to stretch the field, "Flash" Gordon figures to add to the growing list of wide receivers who have generated at least 70 yards or a score against the Chiefs (currently standing at eight).

Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. OAK (London)

It might be time to start taking Lockett seriously as a weekly starter. All he does is catch touchdowns, after all. He's scored in all but one game and among the eight players with at least four touchdown catches, only Calvin Ridley has done so on fewer receptions (19 to Lockett's 20). Although he's not garnered more than seven targets in a game, his 17.4 yards per reception and 12.4 YPT are so efficient that it doesn't matter. Facing a Raiders secondary that's given up the most yards per reception to wideouts (15.8) of any defense in football, Lockett could snag his fourth score of at least 39 yards.

Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. PHI

In the last four weeks, No. 2 receivers facing the Eagles have tallied 332 yards and two scores with each producing at least 77 yards or a score. Shepard, who's notched at least 75 yards in three straight, is the best second fiddle they'll have faced so far not named Stefon Diggs, who just shook their shaky corners for 10 grabs and 91 yards. He's not just a PPR stud this week: Shepard should be a go-to for Eli Manning while Odell Beckham Jr. occupies most of Philly's attention in the passing game.

D.J. Moore & Curtis Samuel, CAR at WAS

The Redskins have done a nice job stalling No. 1 wide receivers. They've limited a strong group of Larry Fitzgerald (at his healthiest in Week 1), T.Y. Hilton, Davante Adams and Michael Thomas to 83 or fewer yards apiece, with only Hilton and Adams registering short scores. Carolina's top target – Devin Funchess – does not warrant as much concern for a defense as those names, but he's still likely to draw the most attention in coverage. That means it could be three straight games in which a secondary target produces. Geronimo Allison and Tre'Quan Smith both burned Washington for long touchdowns while Cameron Meredith snagged a ball of over 45 yards. Moore and Samuel both saw four targets and flashed explosive ability versus the Giants. One, if not both, is well-positioned to generate a surprisingly big spot start.

Chester Rogers, IND at NYJ

New York's secondary has allowed five different 100-yard receivers (including two to Jacksonville) and seven wideouts to register at least 72 yards. Although the Jets have only given up five scores to the position, Rogers possesses a high floor this week as the de facto No. 1 wide receiver with T.Y. Hilton looking doubtful with a hamstring injury. The third-year wideout has quickly become a go-to target for Andrew Luck minus his favorite weapon, as evidenced by his eight catches on 11 targets in consecutive weeks. The 75.5 yards he's averaged in that span look like the over/under if Hilton remains out, and versus this defense, the over is a good bet.

TE

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. TB

The Buccaneers are one of only four teams to have already had a bye week, and yet they've still allowed the third-most yards to the tight end position after five weeks. Coming off career highs in targets (12) and catches (9), a home shootout should be favorable for Hooper to produce TE1 numbers for the third time this season.

Tyler Higbee, LAR at DEN

This is an "if, then" upgrade. As in, if Brandin Cooks and/or Cooper Kupp miss the game with concussions, Higbee becomes a major upgrade. In particular, if Kupp is not manning the slot, Higbee is primed for perhaps his best game of the season. The Broncos have allowed the fourth-most yards to the tight end position, including 100-plus to Will Dissly in Week 1.

DOWNGRADE

Philip Rivers, LAC at CLE

Rivers is just 12th in passing yards, but he's posted the second-most touchdown passes in the league at 13. Moreover, he's been incredibly consistent in doing so with at least 225 yards and multiple scores in every game. Even the most consistent passers have duds, though, and if Rivers is going to have one this year, it could be coming in "The Dawg Pound." Led by the relentless speed rushing of Myles Garrett and the sticky coverage of rookie sensation cornerback Denzel Ward, the Browns have quietly been one of the league's top pass defenses. In fact, Cleveland is one of only four defenses to have produced more interceptions (8) than they've allowed passing scores (7).

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. ARI

The Cardinals have allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns in the league. How have they allowed just five, you say? Aside from playing against Mitchell Trubisky, part of the reason has been simple. Their offense stinks. They're averaging just 0.4 points more per game than the last-place Bills (13.0 to be exact), and while that's increased with Josh Rosen under center, they're still a less-than-threating offense. With the strength of Arizona's defense in its pass rush and secondary, teams have elected to run all day on them: They've seen the most rushing attempts against them, allowed the second-most yards and are tied for most rushing scores allowed. It's true that Minnesota has shown no interest in running the ball, but that's been due more to Dalvin Cook's injury, their poor offensive line and playing from behind in three out of five games. Expect the Vikings defense to control this game while they look to establish the run at long last, limiting what Cousins will do in the box score.

Carson Wentz, PHI at NYG

The Giants are sitting at a lowly 1-4 in the standings, but they've quietly returned to being one of the better defenses in the league, particularly against the pass. Only the Jaguars and Cardinals have allowed fewer than the six passing scores they've given up, and they've managed that despite tying the Raiders for the fewest sacks in the league (6). Fortunately for them, they will activate their best pass rusher, Olivier Vernon, for the first time this season against Wentz and Co. Though he's been getting sharper with each game he gets further removed from last year's torn ACL, Wentz could be in for a step back against a secondary that limited Drew Brees to a 56.3 percent completion rate and zero scores when he's completed a minimum of 79.6 percent of his passes with multiple touchdowns against everyone else he's faced. Toss in the chance of rain impacting the game, and it looks like Wentz owners are in trouble.

Jared Goff, LAR at DEN

Yes, Broncos defense has fallen a long, long way from the "No Fly Zone" days of smothering wide receivers and shutting down pass attacks. Heck, in Week 2 they let Derek Carr complete a ridiculous 29 of 32 pass attempts, and just last Sunday, rookie Sam Darnold burned them for touchdown passes of 76, 35 and 20 yards. They also held Patrick Mahomes to a season-low 6.76 YPA on a career-high 45 pass attempts. Although Goff enters this game leading the league in passing yards after piling up nearly 1,500 yards in the last four contests, his numbers will certainly be adversely impacted Brandin Cooks and/or Cooper Kupp can't play due to the concussions each suffered last week. This means Goff is not the no-brainer start he otherwise might be. Pay close attention to the status of his receiving corps heading into the weekend.

RB

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. JAX

You're not going to bench the league's leading rusher, but let's also not pretend this is going to be a vintage Elliott romp, either. Only four defenses have allowed fewer than the two touchdowns the Jags have allowed to tailbacks, and those came on a scintillating Saquon Barkley 68-yard jaunt and a short drive-capper by Kareem Hunt because Patrick Mahomes is invincible and can even throw on Jacksonville's secondary. Dak Prescott sure as heck can't, so when Elliott is left to do all the heavy lifting himself versus a defense that still gives up the fewest yards per game (292.2) even after facing Kansas City, the results will almost certainly be disappointing. That means balance the lineup in weekly formats with high upside in other spots and stay away in daily games.

Alex Collins, BAL at TEN

With a single-game high of 90 scrimmage yards and more than 13 touches in a contest only once, Collins has become entirely touchdown-dependent in a timeshare with Javorius Allen that has seen the latter log just 11 fewer touches through five weeks while scoring one more TD than Collins. Moreover, Collins is not generating the chunk gains this year that made him a breakout runner in 2017: His long run is just 19 yards. Facing a Titans defense that is the only one left to have not given up a touchdown to an opposing tailback, Collins presents an awfully low floor and ceiling this week.

T.J. Yeldon, JAX at DAL

With Leonard Fournette missing most of the action with his ailing hamstring, Yeldon – in a contract year – has taken full advantage. Playing the best football of his career, he's tallied at least 90 scrimmage yards in three straight games while adding three scores over that stretch, playing particularly well as a receiver (163 yards and two scores out of the backfield the last three weeks). His hot stretch will be put to the test, however, facing the rising linebacker duo of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. This tag team is a big part of why the Cowboys have held opposing running backs to a meager 3.3 YPC and 4.3 yards per touch. Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson and Alfred Blue did manage to top 100 scrimmage yards against Dallas, but it took 25, 34, and 28 touches, respectively, for that group to get there. None averaged better than Carson's 3.2 YPC (collectively they were at a putrid 2.8 YPC). So, unless you're willing to bet that Jacksonville feeds a huge workload to the last healthy tailback from the trio they started the year with (Corey Grant just went on injured reserve), you should be betting against Yeldon doing much.

WR

Alshon Jeffery, PHI at NYG

Jeffery came way back down to Earth versus the Vikings after returning from a shoulder injury to post an 8/105/1 line in his first game of the season. Minnesota wouldn't let anything come easy as Jeffery caught just two of eight targets for under 40 yards in a rough afternoon. The Giants – having recently held Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins to a combined 10 grabs for 133 yards – don't look likely to offer a respite for Jeffery on the short week.

Corey Davis, TEN vs. BAL

Davis was held largely in check by Tre'Davious White while the Titans offense struggled big-time with the Bills' defense. A visiting Baltimore group is an even bigger chore, and a top-notch secondary led by Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Carr and Eric Weddle (not to mention the recently activated Jimmy Smith) is going to put Davis' breakout performance even further in the rearview mirror. After all, this unit has held Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jarvis Landry to under 70 yards apiece in the last two contests despite each player seeing double-digit targets.

Allen Robinson, CHI at MIA

Only three defenses have allowed fewer touchdowns to wide receivers than the Dolphins, and prior to his explosion versus the pathetic Bucs pass defense, Mitchell Trubisky had thrown only one TD to a wideout: in Week 2 to Anthony Miller. It looks like Miller will return from a shoulder injury this week and could steal some looks from Robinson, who's averaged 6.8 YPT on the year and could continue posting modest numbers with the talented young Dolphins secondary keying on him.