This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
What's With First-Round Rookie Receivers?
Three years ago, we had arguably the greatest class of rookie receivers ever, most of whom were drafted in the first round. Sammy Watkins went at No. 4, Mike Evans at No. 7, Odell Beckham at 12, Brandin Cooks at 20 and Kelvin Benjamin at 28. All five had at least 500 yards (Cooks had 550 in 10 games) and the other four had more than 980. They were major difference-makers in fantasy leagues. It seemed maybe the notion that receivers don't do anything until Year 2 might be outdated. Much like quarterbacks who have come into the league more pro-ready than ever before, perhaps receivers no longer needed extra seasoning before being able to produce.
The following year, Amari Cooper was taken at No. 4, and after him Kevin White at 7, DeVante Parker at 14, Nelson Agholor at 20, Breshad Perriman at 26 and Phillip Dorsett at 29. Cooper, who is falling apart this year, had a fine rookie season with 1,070 yards, but White failed to take a snap due to a shin injury, Parker missed two games outright and was limited in others, racking up only 494 yards, Agholor missed three games and had only 283 yards, Perriman missed the entire season with a knee problem and Dorsett missed five games and had just 225 yards.
One could argue there was bound to be a correction after 2014, and at least Cooper was as advertised. But 2016 did not revert back to normal, either. Corey Coleman was the first wideout drafted at No. 15, and he missed six games with a hand injury and amassed only 413 yards. Next was Will Fuller at 21, and he missed two games, finishing with 635 yards. Josh Doctson followed at 22 and missed 14 games, racking up only 66 yards in the two he played. Finally there was Laquon Treadwell at 23, who missed seven games and finished with 42 receiving yards.
Of course this is a small sample, and plenty of veteran receivers get hurt too. It's probably just a fluke and not something we should have considered when drafting in 2017. Moreover, the rookie wideouts this year were of even better pedigree than the last two - with three of them going in the top-10 overall picks. But as I type this, No. 5 overall pick Corey Davis is out with a hamstring that's already cost him two games and will cost him a third, No. 7 overall pick Mike Williams hasn't yet suited up due to a back injury and No. 9 overall pick John Ross has missed the last three games with a knee problem.
There's nothing magical about being a first-round receiver as opposed to any other, and middle-round picks Cooper Kupp, Juju Smith-Schuster, Trent Taylor and Kenny Golladay (currently injured) have all made early contributions. But Carlos Henderson and Dede Westbrook are already out for the year, too.
I don't want to draw any major conclusions from this, other than simply to point it out. While 2014 showed us that there's nothing inherent about the position that prevents a talented player from seizing the opportunity right away, it's uncanny how so many of them have been hurt and whose injuries have made it hard for them to integrate into their team's offenses when they got healthy.
Twelve Men On the Field
Peyton Manning started it, but this trend of quarterbacks shrewdly snapping the ball as a defender hustles to get off the field has spread. I've seen Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers do it too, and I'm sure there are many other examples I've missed. The moronic announcers always heaped praise on Manning for exploiting this loophole, as if a cheap gaming of the system was but another aspect of his greatness.
I'm not faulting the QBs per se - they should exploit stupid rules to the extent they can - but the announcers, instead of using it as yet another occasion to suck up to star quarterbacks, should be advocating for amending the rule. Just as quarterbacks throwing the ball into the ground to avoid a sack became intentional grounding if there were no one in the area, 12 men on the field should not be a penalty if the 12th man has his back to the field and is six inches from the sideline. This would be a judgment call just as intentional grounding is, but the idea would be whether the defender had any impact on the play whatsoever. There's so much garbage in the game already, the more the rules can foster outcomes decided on merit and not technicalities, the better.
Bad Beat
I had the Redskins plus seven Monday night, but living in Portugal, I don't watch the night games until the following morning when I catch the 40-minute condensed version. When I wake up, I don't check Twitter, and I try to squint while hitting the NFL.com web site, so as not to catch the score and preserve all the drama of watching it live. But this year they've rearranged things on the site so that it's much harder to do. This morning, I managed to get the game window launched while seeing only one number: 29. One of the teams scored 29, and as long the Redskins scored 23 - or the Chiefs scored no more than 35 - I was good.
When the Redskins had the ball with a couple minutes left down 20-17, I racked my brain to figure out how a team could get to 29. The Redskins must get the field goal, the game goes to overtime, the first team with the ball gets a field goal, the second one matches it with time left to tie at 23. Then one of the teams - I didn't care which - scores a TD to win 29-23. Redskins cover no matter what.
So when the Chiefs got the ball, tied 20-20, I assumed the drive would stall or maybe they'd miss the field goal. It wasn't until they went ahead 23-20 with four seconds left that I put it together. The Redskins had one play, and whatever happened they weren't getting a field goal. There was only one way to get to 29, and I watched in horror as the inevitable played out. One of my worst beats ever, though not as bad as this one when I had the Browns +5.5.
Week 4 Observations
• I woke up Monday morning and saw the Seahawks blew out the Colts and easily covered the 13-point spread. Or so I thought until I watched it. The Colts would have been ahead but for a pick-six until nearly the end of the third quarter. A fumble TD, and a couple big plays later, and the Seahawks ran away with it.
• With Chris Carson hurt, it looks like Eddie Lacy, who ran well late against a tired Colts defense, might be the man in Seattle yet. But C.J. Prosise missed the game, and J.D. McKissic, a small, quick back recently added to the roster, had a long TD catch (where he split two defenders to get the ball) and a long TD run. My money's on Lacy if Carson is seriously hurt. Thomas Rawls was a healthy scratch.
• You can't read much into an Andrew Luck-less Colts performance in Seattle. Just be glad other people watched it for you.
• It's odd Denver's run defense has been even better than its pass defense so far this year.
• Virtually no one did anything of note in the Denver-Oakland game except maybe C.J. Anderson who had 20 carries for 95 and four catches. Derek Carr got hurt, but apparently it was only back spasms.
•Paul Perkins got banged up, and the Giants found modest success (3.8 YPC, but relatively speaking it was huge) with rookie Wayne Gallman. He might well keep the job all year.
•Odell Beckham got hurt a couple times during the game, jamming a finger and tweaking his ankle, but he returned both times and led the team with 15 targets and seven catches.
•Evan Engram is tied with Rob Gronkowski for second in the NFL among tight ends with 30 targets. Engram's averaging 6.7 YPT, Gronk 10.6.
• It's well known I think Ben McAdoo is a moron, but despite the 0-4 start, he's actually coached better this year than last. His play design on the Eli Manning TD pass to Rhett Ellison was excellent, and he hasn't been afraid to go on fourth down this year. Why he ran Shane Vereen into the teeth of the defense on a short-yardage play is beyond me, however, and he's still way too predictable with 1st-and-10 runs. I'd still like to see him replaced.
• The Giants simply refuse to cover the tight end. O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate had big plays, and the team has now yielded touchdowns to five tight ends in four games.
•Jacquizz Rodgers had a solid game. It'll be interesting to see whether Doug Martin displaces him right away when he returns Thursday night.
• The Chargers simply don't have a home right now, and it can't be good for morale. The tiny 27,000-seat venue in which they play isn't even full, and Los Angeles, one of the worst sports towns in the country, is barely adjusted to having one NFL franchise again, let alone two.
•Keenan Allen is a good receiver, but he's not red-zone target, and he lacks breakaway speed to score from deep. Even after getting behind the defense for a 50-yard catch Sunday, he was caught from behind. On the bright side, he has 40 targets through four games, something that's sustainable should he remain healthy.
•Tyrell Williams had a big game, but it was largely due to one 75-yard TD catch. He had only six targets, a 96-target pace, which sounds about right. He'll be hard to time week to week, but if you leave him in all year, the stats will probably be there a la DeSean Jackson.
•Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley switched back to their original identities again.
•Wendell Smallwood seems to have taken over as the team's pass-catching back from Darren Sproles. He also had 10 carries, though LeGarrette Blount had 16 and Corey Clement had 10 also.
•Zach Ertz is automatic this year – No. 2 TE on my board after Rob Gronkowski and ahead of Travis Kelce who has to deal with the whims of Andy Reid and Alex Smith.
• The 49ers passing game is a wasteland. Aldrick Robinson, Trent Taylor, Pierre Garcon, George Kittle – it's hard for anyone other than Marquise Goodwin, who got concussed early on, to make more than a short catch.
•Carson Palmer should have a lot of volume with David Johnson out, and that pays the bills even if it's not aesthetically pleasing. Jaron Brown saw 12 more targets and is emerging as the team's primary non dink and dunk (Larry Fitzgerald) receiver. John Brown saw seven targets, a couple of them deep shots, so if he can get over the quad injury, he might be relevant yet.
•Andre Ellington had 14 targets, and is easily the team's back to own, though he did have a couple drops.
•Marcus Mariota would have had a huge day but for his hamstring injury because he already had two rushing TDs, and would have had extended garbage time. Matt Cassel is basically the average man off the street right now.
• DeShaun Watson, like Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, just seems to be born ready. Usually, you expect some struggles from rookie QBs, but some put on the pads and are good to go.
•DeAndre Hopkins is a lock to be top-three in targets, and now that he has a competent passer, he's again a top-seven WR.
• How bad is the Ravens' offense? I saw parts of this game on the red-zone channel, and every three minutes, the Steelers had the ball again. Why would they draft Perriman in the first round and never even make the effort to find out if he can play?
• I suppose Alex Collins is the Ravens back to own, but Javorius Allen is still the pass catcher in the backfield, and there won't be a ton of red-zone chances. This offense is dragging down even Justin Tucker.
• Never use Ben Roethlisberger on the road. He wasn't even terrible Sunday, but the production as always was modest at best. Le'Veon Bell, on the other hand, is less venue-sensitive. He had 35 carries and six targets.
• The Jets running game tore up Jacksonville's vaunted defense, but a lot of it was on two plays (one of which the defense thought Bilal Powell was touched down and let him run by himself to the end zone) and the other a 69-yard run by Elijah McGuire. Take those away, and the Jets had 112 yards on 29 carries. Obviously, every carry counts for all teams' totals, but it wasn't as dominant as it looks on paper.
• McGuire should get more run even after Matt Forte comes back, but I could see the Jets waiting until later in the year because they're the Jets.
•Leonard Fournette is the Todd Gurley of the Jaguars. They lean on him for everything, and as long as he holds up, he's in for a big year, efficiency be damned.
•Marqise Lee was quiet, though in fairness Blake Bortles had just 4.0 YPA. Bortles did dish out a nice hit on a DB who tried to tackle him on a run, though.
• The Patriots played defense in only one game this year, on the road against the Saints oddly enough. Otherwise, they made Alex Smith look like Dan Marino, launched DeShaun Watson's career, and single-handedly fixed Cam Newton.
• The Panthers defense might be legitimately good. It held Tom Brady to 6.8 YPA at his home stadium in a shootout.
• Newton was a great buy-low last week because the sample of his fantasy greatness was far bigger than that of his slump, and he's still in his physical prime. Too late now after a massive game, both in total output and efficiency. And he also ran for 44 yards and a score.
•Devin Funchess (two TDs) and Kelvin Benjamin (104 yards) were both relevant in the same game, albeit without Greg Olsen, but Christian McCaffrey (six carries, four catches) had a smaller role. I'm not sure whether that was the New England defense keying on him, or the Panthers realizing that Newton needs to throw downfield more and scramble to be successful.
• The New England offense is an awful lot of dink and dunk. James White had 10 more catches, and Danny Amendola had six.
•Mike Gillislee needs to score to have any relevance whatsoever.
• Maybe the Vikings miss Sam Bradford after all, though in fairness, as Scott Pianowski pointed out before the game, the Lions defense has been better this year. Losing Dalvin Cook for the year won't help the Vikings, either. I imagine Jerick McKinnon is the player to get, though Latavius Murray could see most of the goal-line work,
•Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen manage to get theirs even when the overall output is low. Thielen looked like he was hurt late in the game.
• I was out on Ameer Abdullah this draft season because of Theo Riddick's presence and a possible lack of goal-line work, but he looked good against a stout Vikings defense, breaking and eluding tackles for extra yards.
•Todd Gurley is becoming a workhorse almost on the scale of Le'Veon Bell/healthy David Johnson. He had 23 carries and seven catches, and was efficient on both fronts. He's a top-five overall player right now.
•Jared Goff played okay, but it's odd he's not even targeting Sammy Watkins.
•Ezekiel Elliott hasn't been as efficient as last year, but his involvement in the passing game is making up for it.
• It took the coordinator change and a matchup against the Browns, but the Andy Dalton I expected to see this year is finally back. And Tyler Eifert's and ninth overall pick John Ross haven't been hurt.
• The Bengals simply cannot run the ball, no matter how they set up their committee. Gio Bernard and Joe Mixon are factors in the passing game at least. Jeremy Hill should already have been dropped.
•Duke Johnson might be the only Browns offensive skill player worth having at this point. Isaiah Crowell is an average back on a well below-average offense.
• With Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu out, Tevin Coleman had a huge role, and Austin Hooper finally got some looks. The Falcons would be smart to make heavier use of both going forward even when Jones and Sanu return.
•Charles Clay is far and away the Bills No. 1 receiver, especially now that Jordan Matthews is out for a month.
• While teams like the Cowboys and Rams are leaning ever more heavily on their primary backs, the Bills are easing up on LeSean McCoy for some reason. McCoy still had 20 carries and three targets, but they're not running him into the ground.
• I watched only the last quarter of the Saturday game, and I don't have much to say about it. The Dolphins haven't had a home game yet because Week 1 was postponed by the hurricane, Week 2 was in Los Angeles, Week 3 in NY and Week 4 in London. All while trying to integrate a QB who missed most of training camp while being retired. I tend to think they'll come around. Then again, Jay Cutler – who looked incredibly relaxed for someone getting shut out and strip-sacked – could be done.
•Alvin Kamara had a big game, and with Mark Ingram healthy and playing well, there's just no role for Adrian Peterson.
•Michael Thomas will have a fine season, but he's more peak Anquan Boldin than a bona fide superstar in my opinion. He's too slow.
• The Redskins got a ton of pressure on Alex Smith. Their defense looks legitimate, though apparently Josh Norman has a broken rib.
•Alex Smith played a great game, burning the Redskins with pinpoint throws and making plays with his legs while under pressure.
•Kirk Cousins also looked good, zipping the ball around to different receivers and probably should have had a third touchdown on the ball Josh Doctson nearly caught in the end zone. He also scrambled effectively.
• Great 4th-and-1 call by the Redskins where Cousins bootlegged for an easy first down. But then they settled for the field goal a few plays later on 4th-and-goal from the two!
• I wrote yesterday that Zach Ertz was the No. 2 TE behind Rob Gronkowski, but I have to put Travis Kelce ahead of him again. Kelce's faster and more athletic, a tougher matchup.
•Terrelle Pryor beat Marcus Peters for a long touchdown early, but Cousins spread the ball around quite a bit. Still, it's a good sign for Pryor going forward to make a huge play.
•Tyreek Hill is not a No. 1 receiver because he doesn't run the intermediate routes very often. Chris Conley and Albert Wilson saw deeper looks.
•Samaje Perine looks like the Redskins' best back, but he didn't help his cause by fumbling a pitch that he luckily kicked out of bounds. Chris Thompson predictably regressed on his seven touches.
• A quiet game for Kareem Hunt, but he still had 100 yards rushing and four catches. That's the mark of a fantasy superstar - production not dependent on big plays, touchdowns or game flow.
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