DraftKings NFL: Week 15 DFS Tournament Guide

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments below, or on twitter (@JerryDonabedian).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

(Bold for over/unders of 50+ and implied totals of 25+)

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their DK salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• QB Drew Brees vs. KC ($5,900)

Taysom Hill ($6,000) was originally listed here, with his powerful running style potentially creating a mismatch against Kansas City's subpar rush defense. Brees won't have that same advantage, but he comes at a similarly cheap price, and has a well-established track record putting up big numbers in the Superdome. The 41-year-old has played three home games this season with Michael Thomas (ankle) inactive, scoring 23.5, 25.1 and 24.7 DK points. You could argue that Brees, Alvin Kamara ($7,400) and Emmanuel Sanders ($4,200) are the top three players on this slate when it comes to expected points per dollar of DK salary.

• WR Russell Gage vs. TB ($4,700)

Strictly a slot guy throughout most of his pro career, Gage has been moving all over the place the past three weeks, including 79 snaps (per PFF) lined up out wide. Assuming Julio Jones (hamstring) misses another game, Gage should land somewhere around his eight-target average from the past four weeks. He probably won't throw another TD pass, but there is more upside for big plays now that he's not limited to the slot.

Other Cash Game Options

QB Lamar Jackson vs. JAX ($7,500)

QB Kyler Murray vs. PHI ($7,000)

RB Derrick Henry vs. DET ($9,500)

RB Dalvin Cook vs. CHI ($9,000)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. KC ($7,400)

RB Kenyan Drake vs. PHI ($5,500)

RB Leonard Fournette at ATL ($4,500)

WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. PHI ($7,900)

WR Brandon Aiyuk at DAL ($6,300)

WR Emmanuel Sanders vs. KC ($4,200)

WR Michael Gallup vs. SF ($3,500)

TE Travis Kelce at NO ($8,000)

TE Cole Kmet at MIN ($3,000)

D/ST Seattle Seahawks at WAS ($3,100)

D/ST Arizona Cardinals vs. PHI ($2,900)

D/ST Minnesota Vikings vs. CHI ($2,800)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.

Chiefs (27.25) at Saints (24.25)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Chiefs - 15th (27.1),  Saints - 31st (29.2)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Chiefs - 10th (29.7),  Saints - 29th (32.1)

Neither team uses a lot of hurry-up these days, but the Chiefs do throw a ton of passes, which can boost snap volume on both sides of a game. The Saints 

Chiefs

This could be one of those weeks where the Chiefs barely bother to use their running game. The Saints are top five in basically every run defense stat, even after their Week 14 struggles against Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts.

The Saints also have been solid defending the pass, but we know there's a huge ceiling even in tough matchups if Patrick Mahomes ($7,900) is chucking it 40-plus times. In terms of the pass catchers, it's probably best to stick with Travis Kelce ($8,000) and/or Tyreek Hill ($8,800), as Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson have all been quiet since Watkins returned from IR.

Saints

Brees is one of the top values on this slate, and his return is also a huge positive for RB Alvin Kamara ($7,400), WR Emmanuel Sanders ($4,200), WR Tre'Quan Smith ($3,200) and TE Jared Cook ($3,400) — a quartet that figures to account for the vast majority of the team's targets.

• Best Stack:  QB Brees + RB Kamara + WR Sanders + TE Kelce

Philadelphia Eagles (21.75) at Arizona Cardinals (27.75)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Cardinals - 2nd (25.2),  Eagles - 8th (26.1)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Cardinals - 1st (26.8),  Eagles - 17th (30.1)

Both teams are Top 10 in pace, but it's a philosophical thing in the Cardinals' case, whereas the Eagles are just really good at falling behind. 

Eagles

It's really the other side of this game I find interesting, though there's a case to be made for Jalen Hurts ($5,900) and Dallas Goedert ($3,900). I thought Goedert would fall off with the rookie under center and Zach Ertz healthy, but the young TE got six targets and 86 percent snap share last week.

Cardinals

The Cardinals are the apple of my eye this week, facing a banged-up Philadelphia secondary. Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk are all among my favorite plays on the slate, but I'll probably stick to three of the four. It'll likely be Murray-Drake-Hopkins if Chase Edmonds is ruled out, or Murray-Hopkins-Kirk if Edmonds ends up playing.

• Best Stack: QB Murray + RB Drake + WR Kirk

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lamar Jackson + TE Mark Andrews

QB Tom Brady + WR Chris Godwin + WR Russell Gage

QB Jalen Hurts + WR DeAndre Hopkins + TE Dallas Goedert

QB Jared Goff + RB Cam Akers + WR Robert Woods

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, e.g., using Jonathan Taylor rather than Nyheim Hines with the Colts defense.

• RB Dalvin Cook ($9,000) + D/ST Vikings ($2,800) vs. CHI

The Bears held Cook to 110 total yards and no touchdown in Week 10, and they've generally been a difficult matchup for running backs this year. However, Cook's price is the lowest it's been since mid-November, which is probably still too cheap for a guy averaging 26.5 DK points. He put up 22 in a trip to Tampa last week, so a home matchup with the Bears should feel easy in comparison.

Honorable Mention: RB Kenyan Drake ($5,500) + D/ST Cardinals ($2,900) vs. PHI; RB J.K. Dobbins ($5,800) + D/ST Ravens ($3,800)

High-Priced Hero

• TE Travis Kelce at NO ($8,000)

Kelce continues to put up huge numbers even against good defenses, going 8-136-1 in back-to-back weeks against Denver and Miami. It's definitely possible his per-target efficiency dips a little this week, but he can make up for any loss with extra volume, as the Chiefs don't figure to bother with many running plays against a Saints defense that's given up just 3.7 YPC and 89.2 rushing yards per game.

Honorable Mentions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, ARZ vs. PHI ($7,900); RB Alvin Kamara, NO vs. KC ($7,400)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR T.Y. Hilton vs. HOU ($5,500)

The price seems low for a guy who put up 80-plus yards and a touchdown each of the past three weeks, until we consider how little Hilton did prior to Week 11. He still looks a step slower than his peak form, and even after the hot streak he's averaging only 11.1 DK points per game this year. I'd rather take a shot on Michael Pittman ($4,800) at a lower price and much lower ownership.

Other Fades: WR DK Metcalf, SEA at WAS ($8,600); WR Cooper Kupp, LAR vs. NYJ ($7,000)

The SMASH Spot

Volume may be king, but we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that are likely to lead to impressive production in terms of YPA, YPC or YPT.

• QB Kyler Murray vs. PHI ($7,000)

On paper, the Philadelphia defense is respectable, ranking 15th in DVOA, 14th in yardage and 14th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Unfortunately, the Eagles lost three starting defensive backs to injuries during last week's win over New Orleans — S Rodney McLeod (torn ACL), CB Avonte Maddox (knee) and CB Darius Slay (concussion). The first two have already been ruled out, and Slay is probably no better than 50/50 to clear the concussion protocol in time for Sunday's come, considering this is his second brain injury of the season.

Honorable Mention: TE Mark Andrews, BAL vs. JAX ($5,500)

The Bargain Bin

QB Jalen Hurts at ARZ ($5,900)

RB Leonard Fournette at ATL ($4,500)

WR Christian Kirk vs. PHI ($4,300)

WR Lynn Bowden vs. NE ($3,600)

WR Michael Gallup vs. SF ($3,500)

TE Jared Cook vs. KC ($3,400)

TE Jordan Reed at DAL ($3,200)

TE Cole Kmet at MIN ($3,000)

Injury Situations

The "Sunday Scramble" doesn't need to be stressful. We can plan our response ahead of time for various scenarios that could emerge once inactive lists are released.

•  RB Raheem Mostert at DAL

Dealing with another ankle injury, Mostert missed practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday. If he isn't able to play, Jeff Wilson ($5,100) should get most of the carries against a terrible Dallas defense. Wilson has already been getting a lot of the passing-down work and about 40 percent of the carries, so he'll be my favorite RB play of the week if Mostert is out.

• RB Salvon Ahmed vs. NE

The Dolphins don't seem to like Matt Breida and haven't gotten much out of DeAndre Washington. Ahmed, on the other hand, got 22 and 17 touches in two starts before the shoulder injury knocked him out for three weeks. He costs only $4,700 on DK, and he could be back in the lead role if he's able to play this week.

• RB Chase Edmonds vs. PHI

An absence for Edmonds likely would mean more snaps and targets for Kenyan Drake ($5,500), who already felt a bit underpriced after scoring 13.8 or more DK points each of the past five weeks.

• WR Michael Thomas vs. KC

An absence for Thomas would increase the target share projections for all of Alvin Kamara ($7,400), Emmanuel Sanders ($4,200), Tre'Quan Smith ($3,200) and Jared Cook ($3,400). No Thomas wouldn't be good news for Taysom Hill ($6,000), but it would open up a much cheaper path for stacking the Chiefs-Saints game.

Weather Watch

We're mostly looking at indoor games on the main slate this week, and none of the outdoor contests is any further north than Baltimore. As of Friday morning, we don't see any forecasts for sub-freezing temperatures or significant wind. It might as well be September.

The Toilet Bowl

I'm now running a weekly DraftKings contest where the goal is to have the LOWEST point total rather than the highest.

There's no way to make a paid contest of this sort on DK, but I can promise that the winner each week will get a shoutout in the following week's tournament guide. And if anyone manages to win the contest in two different weeks this season, I'll make a $50 donation to the charity of their choice (or to their venmo account).

Our Week 14 winner was DraftKings user KylerSoze, one of just three contestants who was able to avoid a heavily penalized goose egg. Despite the name, Mr. Soze didn't use any Cardinals in his lineup, nor did he opt for a stack. Here's the winning lineup:

Here are the rules:

1. All lineups must use at least $49,500 of the salary cap.
2. Any player with zero points (besides a D/ST) automatically adds 3x of their salary to your point total. So you can put an injured player who costs $7,500 in your lineup, but then we're adding 22.5 points to your final score. The same goes for players who aren't injured but nonetheless finish with zero points. However, negative scores are allowed — in fact, they're encouraged — free of any penalty.

OK, here's the link for Week 15: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/98839663

Good Luck!