DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 5

The first site I will focus on will be DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average first place score in most large field tournaments is around 200-250 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the player's score, dividing by the salary, and multiplying by 1,000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3,600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be (34.9/$3,600)*1,000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 200-250 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 4x. The challenge in this is on the higher priced players it is very hard to achieve 4x or greater because there is only so many points to be scored. On the flip side, take a $3,000 player. They only have to score 12-15 points to achieve 4-5x. In this case, is that enough to win a tournament? Often times it is not. So you really need to find a player who can hit for more value in the 6-8x range at that price. This would also allow you to take a 3x-4x player that has more of floor vs. ceiling.

Let's first take a look at the quarterback position and build a system for tournament targets.

QB (Hit at least 4x)
Average Score: 29.2
Average Salary: $6400

Per week – (# of QBs to hit 4x or greater)
Week 1 – 5
Week 2 – 6
Week 3 – 7
Week 4 – 5
Week 5 – 6

As you can see, there are only 5-7 quarterbacks each week that hit 4x, so building a system to allow yourself a great shot at hitting them is key.

• The Colts, Jets, and Raiders have allowed three QB's to hit at least 4x.
• Matt Ryan, Brian Hoyer, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill (welp), Ben Roethlisberger, Blaine Gabbert (double welp), and Jameis Winston have all hit for at least two games of 4x.
• The average total in games with a QB at 4x has been 46.1.
• The higher the salary, the higher the Vegas total.
• $5000-$5900 – Average Total 44.6
• $6000-$6900 – Average Total 45.4
• $7000 or greater – Average Total 48.8 (one game was under 44.5, Panthers/49ers)

• In the $5,000-$5,900 range, Gabbert and Mariota were helped by rushing yards and TDs
• The more-likely projectable range is $6,000-$6,900, in which you need 300 passing yards and 3 TDs
• Getting value at $7,000 and higher is a tough task as you need close to 400 passing yards and 4 TDs
• 69% of the time the QB threw at least 3 TDs
• 76% of the time the QB threw at least 300 yards
• 72% of the time the QB had at least 32 passing attempts
• 62% of the time the QB had at least 8.5 yards per attempt
• Only 3 times did both QBs from the same game hit for at least 4x value
• Out of the 7 QBs that passed for under 300 yards, 5 of them had a rushing TD

• Brian Hoyer has hit at least 4.5x in his last three games
• Derek Carr has hit at least 3.5x in four out of five games
• Dak Prescott has hit at least 3.2x in his last four games
• Marcus Mariota had not hit more than 2.9x until Week 5
• Tyrod Taylor has hit at least 3.0x in his last four games
• Aaron Rodgers has NOT hit above 3.4x in any game this season
• Joe Flacco has scored under 2.3x in three out of five games
• Kirk Cousins has not scored above 3.2x in any game this season
• Russell Wilson has been less than 2.0x in three out of four games
• Eli Manning has the lowest value of any QB that has started at least four games (2.1x)