This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Week 10 Circa Millions Picks and Predictions
Nelly's famous song song from the 2000's "Hot in Here" was not only a banger, but it describes the NFL season right now. It's Week 10 and we approach some turning points around the league both in the standings and the futures markets.
Will Lamar Jackson really run away with the MVP, or can Josh Allen or somebody else convince voters? Are the Bengals cooked now at 4-6? Can the Commanders hit another gear in the second half and prove their star is no fluke?
So many questions, so little time. Perhaps those questions are better to be left for another day. It's that time to get back on the board with some plays.
Don't forget to check out the JohnnyVTV hub housing all of my plays.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Houston Texans | Total: 49.5
When we looked on the calendar back in the preseason, I think most of us circled this matchup. Two teams soaked with so much hype and expectations in a possible Super Bowl show down, it made a lot of sense. Perhaps it's lost a bit of the luster from a few months ago, but nevertheless this is a huge tilt.
Lions are not only the king of the jungle, but they roar loud for all to hear. Embodying their team name, the Detroit version has done exactly that in 2024. Sitting at a pristine 7-1 mark, the Lions have proven themselves as not only the best team in the NFC, but maybe the entire NFL. Though it's a tad bizarre that to this point Detroit is outside the top five in both pass and rush yards per game, this offense has lit up the scoreboard to the tune of a league-best 32.3 PPG.
The dynamic duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery man a backfield now known as "Sonic" and "Knuckles" and have definitely catalyzed this dangerous offensive attack. Both backs are on pace to each eclipse over 1,000 yards on the ground and 15 TDs. Then of course, you factor in Jared Goff's top notch, even MVP QB play combined with great pass catchers like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, this is a team to be feared.
Goff's efforts have remained great even though his volume the last three games is way down. Run-heavy game scripts have forced Malibu's Most Wanted doppelganger to throw the rock only 62 times in the past three games, but to his credit he's achieved at least an 80% pass completion rate to go along with six scores and no picks. Now he draws one of the toughest defensive challenges of the year.
Houston has certainly had their ups and downs this season. The injury bug sure bit them hard, but their defense has played very well. The Texans have allowed just 281.7 yards per game (2nd best) and 167.4 pass yards per game (3rd best). And 22.2 PPG leaves them 14th, while their 29 sacks ranks in the top five. On paper, this matchup tells us the ground attack for Detroit could see a busy day, while Goff may have another 25 or fewer pass attempt game, but does Dan Campbell ever do anything normal?
CJ Stroud drew a lot of preseason MVP hype (those trendy picks), as the Texans got Super Bowl buzz. Though the schedule was softer to open up the season, Houston hasn't really looked like a dominant team all season. In fact, they quite obviously have taken a step back. Stroud regressed once he lost stud WR Nico Collins in the Bills game, as did the team, both in the box score and the eye test. With Stefon Diggs done for the year, the hole got deeper. Luckily for H-Town, Collins expects to play Sunday night after missing the last four plus games with a hammy. The concern now is if there will be a snap count or the general effectiveness.
Although Detroit's defense is no 2000 Ravens, it's gotten better each week even with no Aidan Hutchinson. The one potential cause for concern is how Stroud rips through Man Coverage this season. He has the second best completion percentage and third best passer rating. And the Lions run one of the more heavy Man looks in the league.
Obviously I can't leave here without addressing the resurgence of RB Joe Mixon, a huge pick up for Houston. Mixon currently sits on a four game 100-yard with a TD streak. Additionally, Mixon has tallied at least 24 totes in the last three games, so it's safe to see how much they lean on their new bell cow. His recent success will be tested against the seventh best run defense.
It's an interesting matchup for sure. Houston definitely has their advantage areas where they can take control of this game. But Detroit has looked so great since they got worked in Week 2 at home to Tampa. Absolutely clicking on all cylinders, I like the Lions to take care of business and cover my second favorite number behind the Royal Mint. A favorite at -3.5.
Pick: Lions -3.5 -104 Fanduel
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Circa Million Week 10 Picks
The second quarter of the contest was solid at 16-9. If you're gambling and that's your win percantage, then congrats because you're up. But in the five week second quarter, that didn't even come close. The most wins somebody had was 21,5 out of a possible 25, which shows how difficult this is.
Pick 1: Lions -3.5
See above.
Pick 2: Vikings -7
This is either one of the biggest square plays of the season or easiest winners. Minnesota has not looked good in weeks. They've definitely regressed back to the mean, but it's a butter matchup and perfect get right spot at Jacksonville sans Trevor Lawrence. T Law is far from the can't miss prospect from once upon a time, but he's definitely a hell of a lot better than Mac Jones who will start in his stead. Vikings need to go up big and not look back. Don't disappoint Daddy.
Pick 3: Commanders -2.5
I still hold the 111/1 Jayden Daniels MVP ticket. If he somehow pulls off the impossible and wins MVP as a rook, I may have to name my first child Jayden, regardless of gender. It's been a push/pull on this real time market between 2.5 and 3. It's absolutely a tough draw against this Steelers defense, but Pittsburgh has yet to beat a good team.
Pick 4: 49ers -6
I feel for Baker and the Bucs, I really do. They were my preseason division winner, but some poor late game situations and brutal injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin destroyed them. Still, they fight until the very end to hang tough. Unfortunately for them, they have SF off a bye with CMC returning. Brock Purdy should pick apart this depleted Bucs secondary like everybody else has this year. It's a lot of points on the road, but I expect a strong effort from the SF defense. The one thing Tampa has in their favor is a long travel for the 49ers. But hey, back in 2018 off their bye, San Fran got smoked at the Bucs at the end of November. Will history repeat itself?
Pick 5: Rams -1.5
This may be where we see LAR make their move for the second half playoff push. LA has their stars back for a change and their grooving on a three-game win streak. Against a Miami defense that's allowed 58 points the last two games, it should be all systems go for the Rams offense. I expect a lot of downfield shots to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. On the other side, Miami should probably score a bit, but I'm not sure it will be enough, especially in a tough travel spot across the country.
Best of luck this week!
