This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.
This is the second part in a series recalibrating the rookie draft targets in Underdog Fantasy NFL best ball contests. The first article looks at the first six rookies in the Underdog ADP -- Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston and Zach Charbonnet -- and you can read that article by clicking here.
This entry will look at the next six players in the ADP -- Zay Flowers, Anthony Richardson, Devon Achane, Jalin Hyatt, Dalton Kincaid, and Roschon Johnson.
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Zay Flowers, WR, BAL (101.4 ADP)
The decision by Baltimore to select Flowers over Jordan Addison will not age well. Flowers' age-adjusted production is not as good as some of the players he was selected ahead of, but he should have some amount of fantasy upside as the next receiver up after Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham, both of whom have a fair amount of durability concern by now.
Flowers (5-foot-9, 182 pounds) is at his best in the slot, which also happens to be an area of the field where Mark Andrews often lines up. It's not that Flowers won't line up outside, but when he does he's a worse version of himself than when he lines up in the slot. Because of Andrews' dominance in the same part of the field that Flowers most excels, I don't think there's even a slight chance of Flowers returning value at this ADP without Bateman or Beckham getting hurt. It's strange that Flowers is currently going ahead of Bateman (105.6 ADP). If Bateman is healthy he's clearly the better player.
Verdict: Slight reach
Anthony Richardson, QB, IND (102.1 ADP)
This is a good four rounds or so earlier than Richardson was going on Underdog 1QB formats prior to the draft. At the prior price it was easy to justify swinging for Richardson's upside, because he was going at QB3 prices. At 102.1 he's the QB14, making him one of the highest-priced QB2s.
There's still a good case to make for Richardson's upside – he's probably the most athletic quarterback of all time after running a 4.43-second 40 at 244 pounds, adding especially freakish numbers in the jumps (40.5-inch vertical, 129-inch broad jump) for good measure – but at 102.1 it's not a trivial expense. That, and Richardson isn't going to be as good this year, having just turned 21 in May, as he will be in upcoming seasons. Even if Richardson is eventually great, he's a raw underclassman in the meantime and liable to be up-and-down early on. It might be best to keep his selections limited to tournament settings.
Verdict: Justifiable but aggressive selection
Devon Achane, RB, MIA (119.5 ADP)
It's a near certainty that Achane will have a significantly limited workload at just 188 pounds, but people might be underestimating his chances of posting uniquely explosive per-snap numbers. Mike McDaniel turned the Dolphins into a weekly track meet with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and now he has someone with similar speed working from the backfield.
Raheem Mostert is fast, but he's not as fast as Achane. While Hill is likely the league's fastest player, Achane might be the league's second-fastest player. He previously ran 100m times similar to those of Hill, and the 4.32-second 40 Achane ran at the combine was reportedly run at less than 100 percent health. Not just that, but Achane is a much better receiver than Mostert or Jeff Wilson. As much as Achane probably can't play more than 30 or so snaps per game, it wouldn't be surprising if he finished the year averaging more than six years per carry and scoring touchdowns at a standout rate.
Still, at this price Achane is not just a trivial expense. His workload limitations are a categorical upside limitation, yet Achane goes well ahead of some players with arguably higher ceilings, such as Elijah Mitchell (128.1 ADP) and Antonio Gibson (130.6 ADP). Achane might have a higher floor than those two, but if you need a 30-point game he might not be the guy.
Verdict: Justifiable selection
Jalin Hyatt, WR, NYG (135.2 ADP)
Hyatt is a tough evaluation, and it's not easy to tell what he means to the Giants presently. Did they select Hyatt in the third round, 73rd overall, because they coveted him? Or did they make that pick because Hyatt was perceived as a value at that point, nearly two rounds later than he was formerly projected? It might have been more of an ostensibly pragmatic selection than one made out of conviction.
Hyatt doesn't turn 22 until October and might still be developing, but in the meantime there's reason to worry that he needs more development than most prospects taken where he was. He didn't do much more than run in a straight line at Tennessee, and Darius Slayton can already do that better. There's a chance Hyatt is a scratch much of the year. He should be going a good three rounds later, in my opinion.
Verdict: Reach
Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF (135.7 ADP)
Kincaid presents clearly enough as a pass-catching threat – or at least, it's the only way the Bills will get their money's worth out of him – but it's not clear how much the Bills mean to spotlight Kincaid as a rookie. Dawson Knox is the Bills' starting tight end, and the only one who can play inline between him and Kincaid.
If Kincaid can't play inline snaps then his only way to get on the field is as the second tight end or as a slot receiver. In other words, if Knox is on the field along with either of Khalil Shakir or Deonte Harty then it's difficult to see where Kincaid can line up in base functions. It's possible that the Bills plan to make Kincaid their primary slot receiver, and in such a case he would easily pay off at this price. As things stand, though, it might be jumping the gun to project more than 550 snaps or so for Kincaid in 2023.
Knox's contract gets burdensome in 2024, nearly tripling in cap number, and at that point it will be interesting to see if Kincaid gets the opportunity for a true three-down role. In the meantime I wouldn't consider him ahead of Chigoziem Okonkwo (133.6 ADP). Juwan Johnson (153.2 ADP) carries a similar projection to Kincaid yet goes much cheaper at the moment, as well.
Verdict: Justifiable selection
Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI (141.8 ADP)
Johnson has a high floor as a prospect and possesses a versatile skill set, but not all components of his skill set are especially useful for fantasy purposes. Moreover, while his breadth of skill set might be greater than some of his peers, the fact that Johnson fails to stand out in any area means he categorically hovers around replacement level, a profile that trends toward a backup role rather than a featured one.
Johnson finished his four-year Texas career with 392 carries for 2,190 yards (5.6 YPC) and 23 touchdowns. D'Onta Foreman ran for 2,028 yards and 15 touchdowns on 323 carries (6.3 YPC) in 2016 alone. If anyone would suggest Johnson can even vaguely imitate Foreman as a runner then it's just an exercise in faith or obtuseness. Foreman ran a 4.46 pro day 40 at 233 pounds, which even after the pro day penalty easily outclasses Johnson, whose 4.58 combine 40 at 219 pounds. Foreman's far superior production indicates superior skill set, and the two are tiers apart when it comes to size-adjusted speed.
That Johnson's proponents resort solely to hysterical comparisons; Brandon Jacobs, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander – shows that his market is propelled mostly by fanfiction. Johnson currently goes ahead of not just Foreman (144.6 ADP), but also Raheem Mostert (149.7 ADP), Ezekiel Elliott (157.5 ADP), Jeff Wilson (159.2 ADP), Jerick McKinnon (172.3 ADP), Chase Brown (172.6 ADP) and Tank Bigsby (174.7 ADP), all whom project for more playing time. It's not just Foreman that Johnson needs to worry about – Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer are both superior runners as well, and Homer might be better than Johnson at passing down tasks.
Verdict: Reach
