Free Agency Fallout: Day 4

Updated Free Agent Grid

• Tyrell Williams agreed to a four-year, $44 million deal with Oakland. Williams was hyper-efficient but only modestly utilized with the Chargers, where Keenan Allen and eventually Mike Williams got in the way. With the switch from Los Angeles to Oakland, Williams basically makes a trade in efficiency for volume. Given that he was limited to just 65 targets last year, Williams' increase in opportunity – doubling his target count might be within possibility – should be more than enough to offset the drop in efficiency from Philip Rivers to Derek Carr. But the efficiency will indeed drop, because there's basically no way Carr could average 10 yards per target to Williams over the course of a full season as Rivers did in both of the last two seasons. The Raiders further stabilized Williams' target projection by cutting Jordy Nelson on Wednesday. Nelson, Amari Cooper, Marcell Ateman, and Martavis Bryant only combined for only 177 targets last year, but the target volume for Williams would especially stabilize if Jared Cook (101 targets) does not re-sign.
• Donte Moncrief agreed to a two-year deal with Pittsburgh. Moncrief's arrival presents James Washington some formidable competition for targets, but the two shouldn't be at odds for snaps in a primarily three-wide offense where Juju Smith-Schuster dominates the slot workload. Still, after Washington's 38 targets resulted in only 16 receptions for 217 yards and a touchdown last year, he might slip behind Moncrief in the target rotation. Moncrief is a big, toolsy wideout and a six-year veteran, which is tough for any second-year player to beat. At a 216.6 ADP on DRAFT in March and 237.17 on BestBall10s, I intend to chase Moncrief shares until his price goes way up.
• Golden Tate agreed to a deal with the Giants. Tate is a good player but he's totally redundant to Sterling Shepard, who will evidently need to play primarily outside after mostly playing in the slot last year. Even Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram are likely to see their targets at a similar depth to Tate and Shepard. Eli Manning is a curse and the Einsteins in charge of the Giants are about to get a lesson even Dave Gettleman can understand. I'm terrified for Tate's YPT projection and have basically no interest. I don't think 800 yards is a given.
• Bruce Ellington, Maurice Harris, and Phillip Dorsett all agreed to deals with the Patriots. Bill Belichick will leave this an open competition, but Dorsett is easily the most talented and Harris is by far the least talented. Perhaps injuries will sort it out. Dorsett is otherwise the most interesting because he has two years and counting in the system, and both Ellington and Harris would at most be backups to Julian Edelman as slot wideouts.
• Jordan Matthews agreed to sign with San Francisco. He has only 582 yards to his credit in the last two years, but Matthews' botched career trajectory can largely be traced to injury. Even if he'll never be known for his hands, Matthews will be only 27 this year and totaled 16 NFL touchdowns before he turned 23. Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin can only take up so many snaps, so Matthews' presence as a slot-familiar wideout gives the 49ers more freedom to run the speedier San Francisco wideouts outside. Unlike Richie James and Trent Taylor, Matthews has the size to play away from the slot.
• Miami did its best to lure Teddy Bridgewater away from New Orleans, yet Bridgewater resisted the offer from his hometown to instead pursue opportunity under a much more solvent Saints organization. Dynasty league owners should seriously consider speculating on Bridgewater in case he's throwing passing to Michael Thomas in 2020. The Dolphins would have likely been doomed either way.