Las Vegas Grand Prix
Location: Las Vegas, Nev.
Course: Las Vegas Strip Circuit
Course Length: 6.20km
Laps: 50
Las Vegas Grand Prix Race Preview
We're in for a furious finish to the F1 season, with a tripleheader beginning this weekend in Las Vegas followed by the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. While there was some narrative about a fight for the Driver Championship, Max Verstappen has all but clinched his fourth consecutive award. Charles Leclerc has an outside chance of challenging Lando Norris for second in the standings.
The Constructor Standings offer slightly more intrigue. McLaren has used its strong run of form to maintain a 36-point lead over Ferrari, with Red Bull checking in 13 points below Ferrari. Given Sergio Perez's struggles, it's difficult to envision Red Bull making up ground, but we could see a fight between McLaren and Ferrari.
With that backdrop, let's preview the second Las Vegas Grand Prix (in its current form).
Key Stats at Las Vegas Strip Circuit
- Races: 1
- Winners from pole: 0
- Winners from top-5 starters: 1
- Winners from top-10 starters: 1
Previous Las Vegas Winners
- 2023 – Max Verstappen
The Strip Circuit rivals the speed of any other circuit on the calendar, drawing a rough comparison to Monza. Drivers spent roughly 66 percent of their lap time on full throttle in the inaugural race, also among the highest rates on the schedule. There was plenty more than just high speeds to complicate things for drivers during last year's edition of the race. Some of those things will hopefully be corrected (the manhole covering damaging Carlos Sainz Jr.'s car) but the slick surface is likely to remain a factor for the drivers to deal with. That will be in part due to cool temperatures because the race is taking place at night and also because significant portions of the track were repaved since last year.
Given the track characteristics, it isn't a big surprise that teams will be sent with the softest tire compounds. Per Pirelli and consistent with the track characteristics, the biggest challenge for drivers will be getting their tires up to speed without wearing them out prior to a fast lap or too early in a stint. A two-stop strategy is most likely, but some teams may push a one-stop strategy.
DraftKings Value Picks for the Las Vegas Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50k Salary Cap
Tier 1 Value Picks
Max Verstappen - $13,000
Lando Norris - $12,600
Charles Leclerc - $11,600
Tier 2 Value Picks
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $10,600
George Russell - $9,600
Tier 3 Value Picks
Nico Hulkenberg - $5,000
Pierre Gasly - $4,800
Tier 4 Value Picks
Yuki Tsunoda- $4,200
Alex Albon - $4,000
Liam Lawson - $3,800
Franco Colapinto - $3,400
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Las Vegas Grand Prix
Captain – George Russell - $14,400
Charles Leclerc - $11,600
Pierre Gasly-$4,800
Liam Lawson -$3,800
Franco Colapinto- $3,400
Constructor – Ferrari - $11,700
There's a unique schedule for the weekend, because the race takes place late Saturday night in most American time zones, rather than the more traditional Sunday afternoon. Because of that, we have some early practice data to work with, which can give us some clues as to how qualifying will play out. The first clue is that Mercedes has been quick. The speed was unexpected and could disappear quickly, but for now Russell looks to be a good value. Lewis Hamilton could enter into the equation, but he's in a questionable headspace following the Brazilian Grand Prix. He alluded to not finishing the final three races. Hamilton is in the car this weekend, but he may be checked out on his way to Ferrari.
Both Monza and Azerbaijan share some similar characteristics to Las Vegas, and both of those data points suggest Ferrari can have a strong weekend. Beyond that, Leclerc is on a very strong run of form. Since the summer break, he has five podium finishes in his last seven grand prix.
Of course, we have to mention Max Verstappen, but his appeal is lowered because Sergio Perez makes stacking Red Bull as a constructor undesirable. Norris is also noteworthy, but he's struggled to convert his one-lap speed into results. That isn't necessarily predictive of what will happen this weekend, however, and we know both he and his McLaren are quick.
The midfield is relatively easy to diagnose. Both Williams and RB F1 team drivers are in play, as they are both competitive with each and for points. Any combination of Alex Albon, Franco Colapinto, Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda is viable depending on qualifying and roster construction. The exception is that rostering teammates is not optimal due to the five-point bonus for beating a teammate.
Pierre Gasly is the high-end midfield driver I would specifically target. Since Alpine brought significant upgrades at COTA, Gasly has reached Q3 on two occasions and finished third in the rain-soaked Brazilian Grand Prix. The basic takeaway is that he's shown a lot of pace and should contend for points for the rest of the season.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Las Vegas Grand Prix
Race Winner – Charles Leclerc (+240), Max Verstappen (+450), George Russell (+750)
Top-Four finish – George Russell (+125), Carlos Sainz Jr. (-125)
Top-Six finish- Oscar Piastri (-250)
Top-10 finish – Pierre Gasly (+105), Nico Hulkenberg (+110)
Fastest Qualifier – Lando Norris (+260), Charles Leclerc (+260), Max Verstappen (+750)
A lot of these options have been covered in the DFS section, but it's worth discussing some in more detail. Red Bull's pace has been hit or miss across the second half of the season, but we know that Verstappen will get the most out of his car. Given his relatively long odds, he presents value prior to qualifying.
Norris is another strong qualifier and offers good value as an option to win pole.
