Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Course: Yas Marina Circuit
Circuit Length: 5.281 KM
Laps: 58
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Preview
The Driver's Championship has been locked up since Las Vegas, but there's still plenty to fight from both an individual and team perspective. The two are also interrelated, Lando Norris holds an eight-point lead over Charles Leclerc for second in the driver standings. Similarly, McLaren is seeking its first Constructors Championship since 1998 and needs 24 points to clinch the title. If Norris and Oscar Piastri finish at least third and fifth, the Papaya will be champions regardless of what Ferrari does.
While not as punchy of a headline, there's also been an intriguing battle in the midfield as Alpine and Haas battle for sixth place in the Constructor Standings with RB Honda also in the periphery of the conversation.
It won't be 2021, but there's still plenty to race for.
Key Stats at Yas Marina Circuit
- Races: 15
- Winners from Pole: 10
- Winners from front row: 14
- Winners from top-5: 15
Previous 10 Yas Marina Circuit Winners
2023 – Max Verstappen
2022- Max Verstappen
2021 – Max Verstappen
2020 – Max Verstappen
2019- Lewis Hamilton
2018 – Lewis Hamilton
2017- Valtteri Bottas
2016- Lewis Hamilton
2015- Nico Rosberg
2014 – Lewis Hamilton
Yas Marina Circuit has been overshadowed by recent additions to the grid, but it has plenty of interesting feature of its own. he track runs under a hotel, there's a Ferrari-themed indoor park, and Yas Marina itself is littered with plenty of yachts. The race begins around twilight, so the track temperature cools significantly as the race wears on, making it a unique race in terms of tire management.
As was the case last year, after track modifications were made to make the track faster with better flow, teams will be sent with the three softest tire compounds. Teams are expected to rely on the medium and hard compounds during the race, with the softest compound likely to feature primarily in qualifying.
As for strategy, this is customarily a two-stop race. The undercut is powerful, so expect most teams to begin on medium compound tires and pit relatively early for a long stint on the hard compound to finish the race. Alternatively, teams that are chasing points and qualify relatively poorly are likely to engage in alternative strategies in an effort to make up ground.
RotoWire F1 DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Max Verstappen - $13,000
Lando Norris - $12,000
George Russell - $11,000
Charles Leclerc- $10,800
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Oscar Piastri - $10,000
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $9,800
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Fernando Alonso - $6,000
Pierre Gasly - $5,200
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,800
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Yuki Tsunoda - $4,400
Zhou Guanyu - $3,600
Valtteri Bottas - $3,200
Jack Doohan - $3,000
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Captain – Max Verstappen - $19,500
Pierre Gasly- $5,200
Nico Hulkenberg- $4,800
Yuki Tsunoda - $4,400
Zhou Guanyu -$3,600
Constructor – McLaren - $12,300
There shouldn't be any doubting Verstappen's competitiveness and desire to win, so he should be the favorite to win this weekend even with little to gain. The ongoing and increasing feud between he and George Russell will also likely keep Verstappen motivated. The only downside to the selection is the inability to stack him with Red Bull as a constructor due to Sergio Perez's wretched form.
The landscape of Formula 1 has dramatically changed as the season has progressed and that has continued down the final stretch of races. In short, the gap between the teams shrunk. We saw that in the top tier of drivers, as all of Verstappen, Norris, and even Russell have a legitimate chance to win this week without any unforeseen circumstances.
The middle and lower tiers have also shifted. Alonso has company in Gasly as the most consistent and intriguing mid-tier driver. I'll take the $800 discount and opt for Gasly. Setting aside his retirement in Vegas, he's scored points in three of four races and has reached Q3 in three of the last five races and Q2 in all five. His Alpine has improved considerably and Gasly has consistently shown the ability to take advantage.
Speaking of improvements, don't look now but Zhou and Bottas have both picked up some speed in their Kick Sauber. It seems to be a true team approach, as the driver with the better chance for points gets the preferred strategy and majority of attention from the team. Qualifying will dictate which of this duo is the better selection, but a punt on Sauber is viable for the first time this season.
Tsunoda and Hulkenberg are inconsistent but are desirable because they consistently beat their teammate while also at least having the chance for points.
Finally, Doohan is another punt to keep in mind. He's set for his F1 debut and will step into the aforementioned Alpine. Watch his qualifying and consider him as a punt. The only downside is that it's not optimal to pair him with Gasly, as only one will be able to walk away with the five points for beating a teammate.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Outright Winner – Max Verstappen (+280), George Russell (+1100)
Podium Finish – George Russell (+225)
Points Finish – Pierre Gasly (-150), Fernando Alonso (+125)
Winning Margin – Between 5 and 10 seconds (+270)
We've discussed most of the logic for these picks above, but the general advice would be to get any wagers in early. These lines are likely to tighten the more sessions that we progress into the weekend, particularly in the outright and points selections. The one exception could be Verstappen, as it wouldn't be a surprise to see any of Norris, Piastri or Russell take pole position over him.
The winning margin is the one area that hasn't been discussed in detail. With the exception of 2021, this race generally hasn't been tightly contested with the winning margin generally well over 10 seconds. Given the variations at the top of the field with a generally comparable pace, I'm comfortable suggesting the winning margin will be single-digit seconds.
