Lenovo Sao Paulo Grand Prix
Location: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Course: Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace
Course Length: 4.31km
Laps: 71
Grand Prix of Sao Paulo Race Preview
Ferrari continued stretching their legs at the front of the field as Carlos Sainz Jr. took the team's second victory in as many races a week ago at Mexico. Their double-podium finish with Charles Leclerc in third moved them closer to McLaren at the top of the constructor's standings, too. With that points gap down to just 29 points, the action is sure to heat up in the remaining four races. The driver's title narrowed just slightly, too. Lando Norris closed his deficit to Max Verstappen to 47 points with his second-place effort, splitting the Ferrari teammates in the podium positions. Norris will have to close that gap at a faster rate if he wants to challenge for the title, though. He has an opportunity this week with a sprint race on Saturday and Red Bull and Verstappen contemplating an engine change that could give them a grid penalty. Time and races are running out and every driver and team must maximize their potential to improve their standing. This week their attention turns to the third of a four-race western hemisphere trip at Sao Paulo where Formula 1 will race for the 41st time.
Key Stats at Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace
- Races: 40
- Winners from pole: 18
- Winners from top-5 starters: 35
- Winners from top-10 starters: 40
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
- Fastest race: 210.627 kph
Previous 10 Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace Winners
2023 - Max Verstappen
2022 - George Russell
2021 - Lewis Hamilton
2019 - Max Verstappen
2018 - Lewis Hamilton
2017 - Sebastian Vettel
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Nico Rosberg
2014 - Nico Rosberg
2013 - Sebastian Vettel
Having hosted 40 Formula 1 races, Autodromo Jose Carlo Pace is a well-known quantity to teams and drivers. It is a natural terrain road course with a twisty mix of low- and medium-speed corners. Two-stop strategies have won this race in the past, and the track's surface can be less abrasive than other venues. Teams have to be prepared for wet weather in Sao Paulo, too. The location's tropical conditions often make wet running a requirement throughout the weekend. Chances for rain exist throughout this week, which could disrupt plans if it comes at an awkward time. Even without the rain, Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace enables passing. One of the best opportunities to make a move is at the end of the long front straight into turn 1 after the second of two DRS zones on the lap. Drivers can use their drag reduction systems to close in and out brake opponents there as well as on entry to the faster turn 4. Another sprint race weekend also means that teams will be pressed to sort out their setups and strategies Friday before the sprint format dominates Saturday's activity.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Grand Prix of Sao Paulo (Based on Standard $50k Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Lando Norris - $12,600
Charles Leclerc - $11,600
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $10,600
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Oscar Piastri - $10,200
George Russell - $9,800
Lewis Hamilton - $9,600
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Fernando Alonso - $5,600
Nico Hulkenberg - $5,000
Alex Albon - $4,800
DraftKings Constructor Values
Ferrari - $12,200
McLaren - $12,000
Red Bull Racing - $10,000
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Grand Prix of Sao Paulo
Team Captain - Nico Hulkenberg - $7,500
Oscar Piastri - $10,200
Lewis Hamilton - $9,600
Fernando Alonso - $5,600
Alex Albon - $4,800
Constructor - Ferrari - $12,300
Ferrari's two-week run of victories and surge in the constructor's championship is paying dividends for them, and fantasy players should take advantage of that by choosing them as manufacturer this week. In doing so, rosters get both of their top-tier drivers, that are near equal favorites to win, versus trying to pick just one. Taking this strategy enables a bit more balance in the middle part of the lineup, enabling selections of clear team leaders that are likely to score points on Sunday. Choosing a team captain is also tough given the current parity among the top contenders. In order to avoid putting all the eggs in one basket, our captain this week will be Nico Hulkenberg. The Haas driver sits 10th in the standings and has been consistently outscoring his teammate and finishing in the points-paying positions. He finished in the top 10 at this track seven out of 10 visits, too. By going with a lower-priced captain, more points-paying selections can be made in the middle of our lineup.
In order to get some McLaren representation, Oscar Piastri offers a potential value this week. Ferrari's surge in the points is threatening McLaren, and the team need to ensure both of their drivers finish as high as possible to keep the Italian squad at bay. That is good news for Piastri who has taken a back seat more recently due to his teammate's run for the driver's title. Piastri is fourth in the standings and will be aiming for a podium finish this week with the team's full support. Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes should be viewed as reliable points gatherers from here on out, too. Due to recent crashes, Mercedes won't be able to bring many upgrades to the remaining races. While that means they won't be expected to race for wins, Hamilton and Mercedes will focus on consolidating fourth in the championship and perhaps a podium if circumstances allow. Hamilton is also a three-time winner at this track.
The previous selections enable the remaining driver choices to fall more toward reliable points scorers like Fernando Alonso and Alex Albon. Alonso has been dealing with illness the past two weeks, but with additional treatment before travelling to Brazil, he should be fine for the weekend. He has made himself the clear favorite this season behind the top three teams and holds a 31-point margin in the championship over his closest rival. Last week's DNF was the first time he finished outside of the points since Monza. Fantasy players should expect him back inside the top 10 this week. Also, Alex Albon has been inching forward, picking up points more frequently than the start of the season. He finished ninth last week, extending that upward trend. That was also his third finish in that position from the last five races, which gives him momentum fantasy rosters could benefit from while using less salary space.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Grand Prix of Sao Paulo
Race Winner - Lando Norris +240, Charles Leclerc +265, Oscar Piastri +700
Winning Constructor - Ferrari -110, McLaren +120
Winning Margin - Between five and 10 seconds +225
Safety Car - No +150
With three nearly equal favorites to win Sunday, choosing just one is going to be very tricky. Ferrari has had the edge the past two weeks, but Brazil is a different circuit. For that reason, McLaren may be just the slight favorite this week. Fans should expect both Ferrari drivers to be fighting for the win again, but Lando Norris and McLaren have demonstrated top performance on tracks like this throughout the season. For that reason, they should be the preference. Wagerers looking for greater return versus trying to pick one out of three seemingly equal drivers may want to opt for Oscar Piastri, though. The second McLaren driver is a race winner and may be on more equal footing with the team's lead driver as the constructor's championship heats up. Choosing Piastri this week would give the same return as choosing the right one of three favorites for roughly half the price.
Regardless of what happens amongst the top driver choices at Brazil, the two teams most likely to be racing for the win Sunday afternoon will be McLaren and Ferrari. McLaren's success on similar tracks earlier this season make the positive odds for a McLaren win the way to go in the constructor's choice. Ferrari may be tough to beat given their current run of form, but McLaren seems to have been their equal even when Ferrari has been at their best. The odds differential here makes McLaren the better option.
On the prop bet side of the house, the safety car wager could be a good one to take in Brazil. While wet weather could impact the race, creating more chances of crashes and the need for a caution, there haven't been too many cautions recently. There were no caution periods at Singapore and just one each at Mexico City and Austin. The chances of going caution free on Sunday also increase greatly if rain stays away.
Finally, given the tighter competition at the front, the winning margin wager could also be a decent opportunity this week. Very few Formula 1 races are dead heats and most end up with a few-second margin of victory. As the full race distance plays out, the leaders margin should extend. Assuming there are no late cautions, that could produce a multiple-second gap between first and second. This week, given the twisty nature of the track with its high-speed front straight, a difference between five and 10 seconds feels likely.
