DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 13 Primer

It's the last college football weekend before the Thanksgiving weekend. That's a crazy one for football, and also for turkey. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, though. We've got Week 13 to dig in on first. There's plenty of intrigue, plenty of excitement, and also nobody will stop you from eating turkey this week either. I've pored over several games from college football's Saturday slate to find you some DFS values. The numbers you find in parentheses after the statistical numbers are FBS rankings. All the prices are DraftKings, FanDuel tends to wait to put their Saturday contests, and prices, up. This info can help you if you are a FanDuel players as well, though. Let's chow down on some numbers!

Cheat Sheet

Link to above data in downloadable form

Penn State (+18) at Ohio State  O/U 56.5 12:00 PM ET

Penn State stats: 68.7 plays per game (82), 401.2 yards per game (65), 14.2 points allowed per game (7), 335.7 yards allowed per game (25)

Ohio State stats: 74.6 plays per game (16), 542.0 yards per game (3), 9.8 points allowed per game (2), 216.8 yards allowed per game (1)

Penn State is a really good team. However, they've slipped a bit the last two weeks. They lost on the road to Minnesota, and then eked by a game Indiana team at home. Still, their defense has been potent, and they have some real offensive talent, especially KJ Hamler ($5,900). Be sure to check on his status throughout the week, though, as Hamler was dinged up against the Hoosiers. They are also in over their heads here. The Buckeyes are possibly the best team in the nation. They have a top-five offense and a top-five defense. Ohio State gets Chase Young back for this one, too. Good luck, Sean Clifford ($7,500)

I have to give you a couple of Buckeyes in this one, even if you aren't going to find anybody flying under the radar for a steal. Penn State has been great against the run, but it has given up 240.3 yards per game through the air. Obviously, you can't go wrong with Justin Fields ($8,600) if you are willing to swallow that price, but I'm going to recommend two receivers. Chris Olave ($5,900) is the pricier option, but with good reason, as he has 593 yards and nine touchdowns. A slightly-cheaper choice, though, is Binjimen Victor ($5,300). He's more of a big-play guy, as he's turned his 27 catches into 459 yards and six touchdowns.

Prediction: The Buckeyes are going to throttle them. Why mince words. Ohio State 42, Penn State 20

Kansas   (+24.5) at Iowa State  O/U 58.5, 12:00 PM ET

Kansas stats: 63.0 plays per game (122), 378.9 yards per game (80), 34.9 points allowed per game (108), 482.3 yards allowed per game (120)

Iowa State stats: 70.6 plays per game (76), 480.0 yards per game (11), 24.4 points allowed per game (40), 367.0 yards allowed per game (40)

It speaks to the lowered expectations for Kansas football that this season is considered an improvement for them. They are bad offensively, but they are TERRIBLE defensively. I know that the Big 12 has a lot of high-powered offenses to face which can skew those numbers, but they don't "skew" you to being 120th in yards allowed per game. It's going to be party time for Iowa State, which is to say Purdy time.

Brock Purdy ($8,100) is the third-most-expensive quarterback on DraftKings, but this matchup is right up his alley. The Jayhawks have given up over 230 yards per contest on the ground and through the air, and Purdy is a dual-threat who has thrown for over 3,200 yards and rushed for seven touchdowns. Also, yes, you read that right. Kansas has given up over 230 yards per game rushing. Nobody ever has to twist my arm to recommend Iowa State running back Breece Hall ($6,700), who I think has been in this article every week since his breakout game. There's no reason to stop that now.

Prediction: Iowa State has played a couple really close games recently. This one won't be close. Purdy and Hall both score a touchdown on the ground, and the Cyclones get the easy win. Iowa State 41, Kansas 20

Oklahoma State   (-7) at West Virginia  O/U 60 12:00 PM ET

Oklahoma State stats: 73.8 plays per game (23), 485.2 yards per game (10), 29.2 points allowed per game (71), 435.1 yards allowed per game (88)

West Virginia stats: 66.6 plays per game (90), 332.7 yards per game (110), 32.9 points allowed per game (98), 432.2 yards allowed per game (85)

West Virginia actually has had a pretty good passing offense! They can't run the ball at all (76.7 yards per game), but they've thrown for 251.9 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have given up 273.1 yards per contest through the air. This is actually a matchup the Mountaineers can take advantage of.

I have to mention Chuba Hubbard ($8,900) because he's having a staggeringly good season for the ages, but he's not one of my official recommendations. With Tylan Wallace out for the year, Dillon Stoner ($5,200) has clearly emerged as the new top weapon in Oklahoma State's passing game. He's notched two touchdowns in each of his last two games. On the West Virginia side of things, there's receiver Sam James ($5,300). He leads the Mountaineers with 59 catches for 627 yards. The only issue is he only has two receiving touchdowns.

Prediction: West Virginia has a good day through the air, and scores some points as a result, but Oklahoma State is going to have a field day offensively, led by Hubbard and, hopefully, Stoner. Oklahoma State 35, West Virginia 21

UCF (-6) at Tulane O/U 69.5 12:00 PM ET

UCF stats: 76.7 plays per game (14), 524.7 yards per game (5), 26.2 points allowed per game (50), 376.7 yards allowed per game (45)

Tulane stats: 71.0 plays per game (51), 450.6 yards per game (22), 28.0 points allowed per game (63), 389.3 yards allowed per game (52)

Give a friendly hello to the Tulane Green Wave, making their first appearance in this column. The Wave are coached by Willie Fritz, which means they run the ball quite a bit. I want to shout out their quarterback Justin McMillan ($6,300), who leads the team in rushing and has 12 rushing touchdowns. Also, I'm going to recommend two Golden Knight players. You see those offense numbers, right?

I feel like Dillon Gabriel ($7,100) is quite undervalued at this price. Kellen Mond ($7,200) is pricier, and he's on the road against Georgia. The freshman has thrown 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions, and he didn't even start the whole season. Tulane is worse against the run than the pass, so I also am giving a hearty thumbs up to Otis Anderson ($5,700). He's averaged 6.2 yards per carry and scored four rushing TDs, while adding 179 and two scores through the air.

Prediction: Fritz's can, in theory, kill clock since it tends to be run happy. However, the Golden Knights will still get theirs. It may just not be as impressive as they have been in the past. UCF 31, Tulane 17

Texas A&M (+14) at Georgia O/U 3:30 PM ET

Texas A&M stats: 69.9plays per game (58), 412.7 yards per game (56), 22.2 points allowed per game (29), 342.4 points allowed per game (30)

Georgia stats: 67.1 plays per game (103), 415.2 yards per game (55), 9.8 points allowed per game (1), 265.7 yards allowed per game (6)

Speaking of Kellen Mond's total lack of hope. I'll be honest, every week there's some SEC game that I think is going to be a total snooze for DFS players. Oftentimes, Georgia seems to be involved. The Bulldogs are great at defense, but the offense is dull and lacks much in the way of stars. Part of me wants to not include it in the slate of games I cover. Alas, the Bulldogs are the fourth-ranked team in the country and this is a big SEC game. I kind of feel like I have to include it, while also telling you that you probably want to steer clear.

Obviously, don't grab a single Aggie. That'll be death. I guess, if I have to recommend somebody, D'Andre Swift ($7,500) has a ton of talent. He's also rushed for over 1,027 yards and seven touchdowns. Swift's numbers don't normal equal his skills, especially in SEC play, but he's the only guy here I have any faith in.

Prediction: Georgia wins with defense. Daily fantasy players are largely disinterested. Georgia 24, Texas A&M 9

UCLA (+13.5) at USC O/U 62.5, 3:30 PM ET

UCLA stats: 74.5 plays per game (15), 392.7 yards per game (72), 33.7 points allowed per game (100), 442.0 yards allowed per game (98)

USC stats: 69.1 plays per game (64), 445.7 yards per game (28), 27.1 points allowed per game (57), 403.9 yards allowed per game (66)

Cue Rage Against the Machine, because it's the Battle of Los Angeles. This is more my speed for DFS purposes. The Bruins  run a ton of plays, so that yards per game number is concerning. However, they have spent time without important weapons like starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($6,600) and top running back Joshua Kelley ($6,700). I think UCLA's offense is better than these numbers might suggest.

That being said, I am sprinting to get a hold of players from USC's passing offense in this one. The Bruins have allowed a whopping 298.4 yards per game through the air. There is no quarterback I want more than Kedon Slovis ($7,000). He's thrown for over 400 yards and four touchdowns in each of his last two games. I think he can make it three in a row. You definitely would like to have Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,600) if you can afford him, but I am going to recommend the cheaper Amon-Ra St. Brown ($5,800). When the season began, he was sort of clearly the third option in this passing game. However, he crushed it the past two weeks on the road against Arizona State and Cal. This is an even better matchup.

Prediction: The Bruins will get something going offensively, but the Trojans' passing game is going to come up huge. I think USC is going to drop at least 30, and I'm predicting they get over 40. USC 45, UCLA 28

Texas (+5) at Baylor O/U  3:30 PM ET

Texas stats: 75.0 plays per game (13), 462.5 yards per game (17), 29.9 points allowed per game (74), 449.4 yards allowed per game (104)

Baylor stats: 67.1 plays per game (81), 436.1 yards per game (34), 20.9 points allowed per game (21), 365.0 yards allowed per game (38)

Both of these teams will be reeling from last week. The Longhorns lost to Iowa State thanks to a last-second field goal. Baylor seemed prime to get a huge win over Oklahoma, but then he Sooners pulled it out, giving the Bears their first loss of the season. Texas has a potent offense, much like Oklahoma. Its issue is defense. As such, I think both offenses are going to get it going in this one.

The Longhorns have allowed 305.0 yards per game through the air, and I'm in on Baylor's top offensive weapon Denzel Mims ($6,600). He's reeled in 50 passes for 767 yards and 10 touchdowns. The dual-threat nature of Jalen Hurts seemed to give Baylor fits, and Sam Ehlinger ($8,300) has similar skills. In addition for throwing 27 touchdowns against eight picks, he's rushed for 428 yards and five touchdowns. Ehlinger is pricey, but you can build your lineup around that if you take the plunge.

Prediction: Texas' offense isn't quite as good as Oklahoma's, and its defense is slightly worse, so I think Baylor can hold on for a win in a shootout this time. Baylor 45, Texas 35

Michigan (-8) at Indiana O/U 53  3:30 PM ET

Michigan stats: 67.1 plays per game (66), 398.3 yards per game (67), 16.4 points allowed per game (10), 262.9 yards allowed per game (4)

Indiana stats: 71.9 plays per game (46), 436.7 yards per game (33), 23.8 points allowed per game (37), 338.9 yards allowed per game (29)

I think the Hoosiers may be the most-underrated team in the FBS. They almost took down Penn State on the road, so don't think the Wolverines are going to have an easy matchup here. Shea Patterson ($6,500) crushed it against Michigan State, but he's not exactly a reliable guy. Michigan's defense is tremendous, so I am also wary about Indiana's offense in this game. I don't know if I feel confident in taking anybody from either team.

Given that, I want to recommend one guy who is cheap and has some real upside at his price. I speak of Michigan running back Hassan Haskins ($4,600). He wasn't involved when the season began, but he has 78 carries for 439 yards and three touchdowns, including a touchdown in each of his last two games. If you go with Haskins, he won't have to do much to provide value on his price. Plus, he'll allow you to save money if, say, you want to get a quarterback like Fields in your lineup.

Prediction: Part of me wants to predict an Indiana upset. The Hoosiers could do it. I won't go that far, though, but I think they cover the spread. Michigan 24, Indiana 21

SMU (+4) at Navy O/U 68.0 3:30 PM ET

SMU stats: 83.2 plays per game (1), 522.2 yards per game (6), 32.7 points allowed per game (95), 425.8 yards allowed per game (80)

Navy stats: 67.7 plays per game (106), 435.8 yards per game (35), 23.8 points allowed per game (36), 333.1 yards allowed per game (23)

This is a fascinating clash of styles. The Mustangs run more plays than anybody and put up big yardage as a result. Navy runs the triple-option and drains clock. Whose style is going to win out? How many drives will SMU get, and can they take advantage of them? You can't afford three-and-outs against the Midshipmen. Here's another thing, though. The Mustangs have a poor defense, but that's because they've given up over 300 yards per game through the air. Navy is one of the only teams completely incapable of taking advantage of that. I don't think any game fascinates me more this week.

I think I may end up only recommending one guy here. Navy's offense is built around quarterback Malcolm Perry ($7,800), but I don't know if I can pull the trigger. The Midshipmen are strong against the run, so I will just go with elite SMU receiver James Proche ($7,700). He's been one of the best receivers in college football with 88 catches for 1,008 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Prediction: I have no idea how this game is going to go. Navy is at home, though, and SMU's defense has struggled recently. I think Navy ekes it out. Navy 31, SMU 27

Syracuse (+9) at Louisville O/U 62.0 4:00 PM ET

Syracuse stats: 80.1 plays per game (5), 372.8 yards per game (85), 31.0 points allowed per game (83), 472.3 yards allowed per game (115)

Louisville stats: 67.0 plays per game (60), 427.3 yards per game (43), 36.3 points allowed per game (116), 461.3 yards allowed per game (107)

When you are in the top-five in plays per game but are only 85th in yards per game, your offense just isn't very good. Of course, Louisville has a bad defense, so this might be a good opportunity for the Orange. This is one of those games that aren't necessarily exciting as a football fan, but as a DFS player it provides a lot of fruitful options.

I'm in on Syracuse receiver Trishton Jackson ($6,700). Even though Tommy DeVito ($6,400) is no Eric Dungey, Jackson still has 848 yards and nine touchdowns through the air. The Cardinals have a strong run game, as they have averaged almost 200 yards per game on the ground. They are led by freshman Javian Hawkins ($5,500), who seems unusually cheap. We're talking about a guy who has rushed for over 1,000 yards and has five games with over 100 yards rushing.

Prediction: Syracuse's offense has looked better recently. It just scored 49 points on Duke. I think the Orange will look better than usual offensively, but Louisville is going to outscore them nevertheless. Louisville 38, Syracuse 31

Memphis (-14.5) at USF O/U  4:00 PM ET

Memphis stats: 66.8 plays per game (92), 470.6 yards per game (14), 26.1 points allowed per game (49), 394.6 yards allowed per game (59)

USF stats: 66.0 plays per game (78), 343.6 yards per game (106), 27.6 points allowed per game (59), 366.6 yards allowed per game (39)

It's an AAC week around here! That's what happens when games like Alabama vs. Western Carolina are on the slate. The Bulls have a bad offense, but their defense has held up pretty well. Even in losses the defense has played well. They held Temple to 17 and held Cincinnati to 21 points. Memphis is probably even better than Cincy on offense, though.

South Florida has been great against the pass, but against the run it allows 194.6 yards per game. As such, I actually think Brady White ($7,600) isn't a great play, but I am going to double up on Memphis' run game. Kenny Gainwell ($8,200) is going to cost you a pretty penny, but he usually pays off. Gainwell has rushed for 1,166 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he also has 37 catches for 463 yards and three scores. Then, there's Patrick Taylor Jr. ($6,800). He ran the ball 27 times for 128 yards and a touchdown in the season opener, but then got hurt. Taylor only returned to action last week, but he should have his legs under him now.

Prediction: I don't think the Bulls will do much of anything on offense, and Gainwell could easily run for, like, 200 yards. Taylor could run for 100 too on top of that, though. Memphis will get the win. Memphis 37, USF 13