This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Bets: 2023 College Football Win Totals Wagers for Mountain West
Some Mountain West Conference fans won't have to wait long to see their favorite teams in action, as Hawai'i, San Diego State and San Jose State each play in Week Zero on the weekend of Aug. 26. With the exception of the Aztecs, those fans might not have to wait long to eat that first L, either, especially the Spartans. SJSU has the unenviable task of facing USC in the opener at the L.A. Coliseum.
Like most seasons, the Mountain West is expected to be super competitive, with up to seven or eight teams having legitimate chances of making it to the title game in 2023. The MWC announced it is eliminating its two-division format, too, with the two teams with the highest conference winning percentage squaring off in the big game.
There are a couple of teams who are worth a look for the Over in regular-season wins based on strength of schedule. There are plenty of values to be had, and some teams should get off to a quick start. Hopefully the team you back doesn't get in an early hole, then facing a huge 'mountain' to climb. Sorry, pun totally intended. Let's get started.
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Boise State Broncos Win Totals (7.5 at MGM)
The Broncos are expected to be back on top in the Mountain West, or at least one of the final two teams playing for a conference title in December.
Boise State started off a bit sluggish last season, losing at Oregon State in the opener, and falling by 17 points in Week 4 at UTEP. However, the team was dominant once it got into regular-season conference play, winning all eight games, before falling to Fresno State in the MWC title game.
QB Taylen Green is explosive, and a dual threat, and he has plenty of playmakers with WRs Billy Bowens, Latrell Caples and Stefan Cobbs each returning. The run game is rock-solid, too, as RBs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty provide an impressive one-two punch for head coach Andy Avalos.
Boise State was 7th in total defense last season, and like most, it used the transfer portal to plug holes. The Broncos must replace six starters, including a pair of starting defensive backs and a nickelback.
As far as the schedule is concerned, it's tough right out of the chute, facing the Pac-12's Washington Huskies and (it's gonna take time to get used to) UCF of the Big 12. The Broncos also close September with the league opener at San Diego State, and a cross-country trip to Memphis. However, that's when it will start to tick off plenty of wins, and the most difficult games in October (Wyoming) and November (Air Force) are each on the Smurf Turf.
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Boise State Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 7.5 WINS (-150 at BetMGM)
San Jose State Spartans Win Totals (5.5 at FanDuel)
The Spartans sport one of the better signal callers in the Mountain West in former Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro. He'll be happy to know four starters are back along the offensive line, too, and he can take off when needed. The good news is the O-line situation. The bad news is that WR Isaiah Hamilton transferred out to Washington State, taking away a big-play receiver Cordeiro will miss.
It appears WR Justin Lockhart will get a shot at being the top dog in San Jose, and TE Dominick Mazotti can be a good red-zone target.
On defense, the Spartans have some decent talent sprinkled in, with LBs Jordan Cobbs and Bryun Parham leading a solid position group. The pass rush is a little suspect, however, and San Jose State's defense is likely to be overmatched right from the jump in games against ranked foes USC and Oregon State to start. A cross-country trip to MAC favorite Toledo is no bargain in mid-September, either.
Oh yeah, and then the Spartans kick off the conference slate on Sept. 22 at home against Air Force, and then travel to Boise State on Oct. 7 for the first two league games. I don't like the early-season schedule one bit, and can see a potential 1-5 or 2-4 start. That would mean San Jose State might need to find four or five wins in the final two months to cash the Over in wins, and it still must travel to the islands to take on Hawaii, before it will face Fresno State, San Diego State and UNLV to close out the season.
The Spartans have defied the odds recently, exceeding expectations, but it looks like a bowl will be out of reach due to the challenging schedule.
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San Jose State Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 5.5 WINS (+126 at FanDuel)
UNLV Rebels Win Totals (6 at DraftKings)
The Rebels raised some eyebrows when they canned Marcus Arroyo after a five-win season. He had his team fire out to a 4-1 start, but a 1-6 finish sent him to the unemployment line. Enter Barry Odom, who was on the coaching staff at Arkansas as DC. He previously was the head honcho at Mizzou from 2016-19, taking the team to a pair of bowl appearances.
UNLV has a couple of things going for it, making the Rebels a team to watch. First off, it misses both Boise State and San Diego State in the conference schedule. That's extremely helpful. The non-conference slate also features a trip to the Big House to face Michigan, obviously a daunting task, but it also features winnable games against FCS Bryant, UTEP and Vanderbilt.
The Rebels won't have to do a lot of traveling either, which means they stay fresher. UNLV takes two quick trips to Fresno State and Nevada, and it's longest conference road trips will be to Air Force and New Mexico.
I like how the schedule sets up for UNLV, and I can see the Rebels bowling, especially if QB Doug Brumfield and WR Ricky White can continue to build rapport.
The defense was shabby at times, especially in the 1-6 collapse down the stretch, but defense is Odom's specialty, and his expertise should make that unit better.
You can pay big juice to go Over 5.5 wins at FanDuel (-172) or BetMGM (-175), or play Over six wins, with the biggest payoff at DraftKings. I'd rather not pay, but also would rather not push. Can UNLV win seven games? That might be a bit ambitious, but I'll roll the dice.
UNLV Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 6 WINS (+115 at DraftKings)
Wyoming Cowboys Win Totals (5.5 at BetMGM)
Perhaps no coach in America gets more out of his players than Craig Bohl. The Cowboys have won six or more games in each of the past six full-season slates (not including the 2020 COVID-shortened campaign). The Cowboys have three bowl wins since 2017, too, so they do something in the postseason once they get there, too.
Wyoming went 7-5 in regular season before falling in the Arizona Bowl against Ohio of the MAC, a rather entertaining mid-tier bowl game. The Cowboys return 15 starters from that team, so Wyoming will be lurking in the weeds, looking to pounce on unsuspecting teams once again.
The offense struggled last season, and QB Andrew Peasley must simply be better. However, the Cowboys have a good run game to take the pressure off Peasley, as RBs Dawaiian McNeely and incoming transfer Harrison Waylee might be one of the better combinations in the league.
But enough about the offense, it's the defense which will turn heads again. Wyoming allowed just 23.9 points per game last season, and all but one starter is back. Go high on the win total, and get ready to go low on game totals for Wyoming again in 2023.
You can play Over 6 (-155 at BetRivers), or even Over 6.5 (+105 at both Caesars and DraftKings), but I'd like to take the push out of the equation. Playing Over 5.5 means Wyoming simply needs to go 6-6 to cash, and the juice is manageable.
Wyoming Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 5.5 WINS (-165 at BetMGM)
