Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 11

Welcome to the Week 11 installment of Start vs. Sit. This is a week we've had circled on the calendar for some time now. Between the LSU-Alabama game and the battle of unbeatens in the Big Ten between Penn State and Minnesota, we have one of the most impactful slates of the entire season this weekend. We also have matchups like Iowa-Wisconsin and big prove-it games in the Big 12 with Oklahoma needing to start its redemption arc against Iowa State and Baylor needing to show the committee it deserves more respect with a matchup at TCU. Without further ado, let's jump into the toughest lineup decisions facing fantasy owners for each conference in this week's Start vs. Sit.

AAC

START

Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati vs. Connecticut

Pierce's per-target explosiveness overrides any volume or game script concerns for this week's game against the lowly Huskies. His 13.0 YPT ranks 12th in the nation among receivers with at least 30 targets. Now, his three-game touchdown drought has been a source of concern for his investors. That's fair. But Connecticut is the ultimate slump buster. The Huskies rank 118th in S&P+ on defense, and, frankly, it's surprising to see them that high up. They've also surrendered 13 passing touchdowns in just five conference games. Even if we hit garbage time by the time the third quarter starts Saturday, Pierce will have his opportunities to do damage and break out of his touchdown drought. 

SIT

Shamari Brooks, RB, Tulsa vs. Central Florida

Only four running backs in the nation have more than Brooks' 178. That workload has buoyed his value to this point because the per-carry numbers are less-than-stellar (4.53 YPC, five rushing touchdowns.) No other running back with more than 175 carries has less than seven rushing scores. A matchup against a Central Florida defense that gives up less than 1.0 rushing touchdown per game and just 3.55 YPC doesn't seem like a spot where even Brooks' workload can carry him to starter-level production in fantasy.

ACC

START

Tre Turner, WR, Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest

Turner has had a frustrating season marred by injury, but he appears to have turned a corner in recent weeks even if the box score wasn't all that impressive against Notre Dame with just two catches for 58 yards. The big takeaway against the Irish was that Turner saw 10 targets, his highest since the season opener against Boston College. 

That level of volume suggests Turner is fully healthy for the stretch run, and going against Wake Forest will provide a far easier path to production than what he had in Week 10. Wake Forest ranks just 63rd in defensive S&P+ and surrenders more than 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. A receiver of Turner's talent, a receiver who torched the ACC for 12.7 YPT as a freshman in 2018, should be able to take advantage of this matchup now that he's back to his normal self.

SIT

Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville vs. Miami

Fun fact: Did you know that Hawkins ranks behind only AJ Dillon and Cam Akers in carries per game among ACC running backs? The freshman has been one of the most pleasant surprises on a season full of them at Louisville, which has clawed its way back to relevancy after Bobby Petrino drove the program completely off the rails in 2018. While Hawkins has been great, he might fall short of start-worthy status this week. 

Miami is no joke on defense. It allows 2.77 yards per carry and less than 1.0 rushing scores per game. The Canes are also 13th in overall defensive S&P+. And this game is in Coral Gables. Everything points to this being one of Hawkins' worst outings of the season. 

BIG 12

START

Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State at Oklahoma

Purdy's turnover troubles lately have derailed what has been an otherwise strong season from the sophomore. The three costly picks tipped the scales in Oklahoma State's favor in Iowa State's most recent game and Purdy's six interceptions in conference play are third most in the Big 12. He has a road game this week against an Oklahoma team looking to get right after having to stew on its upset loss to K-State over the bye week. That's not an easy scenario even if Oklahoma isn't a defensive juggernaut. 

Still, Purdy has done enough to earn his owners' trust. Purdy has thrown at least one touchdown in every game this season, including five multi-touchdown outings. He has also surpassed his rushing touchdown total from 2018 with six rushing scores. With Oklahoma's offense likely to keep the pressure on Iowa State all game Saturday, the Cyclones will have to rely on Purdy to make plays through the air to keep them in the game. Even in a tough road game, Purdy is still start-worthy.

SIT

Darius Anderson, RB, TCU vs. Baylor

Things have really fallen off for Anderson since the bye. In a four-game stretch from Week 3 through Week 6, Anderson took 64 carries for 504 yards (7.9 YPC) and six rushing scores. Since the Week 7 bye, a three-game sample, Anderson has a grand total of 35 carries for 135 yards and no touchdowns. TCU's rushing depth with Sewo Olonilua and quarterback Max Duggan always meant that there was a ceiling on Anderson's rushing volume, so we needed explosiveness from him. That explosiveness has seemingly disappeared, and going up against a Baylor defense that allows just 3.37 YPC and ranks 15th in defensive S&P+ is not a spot where Anderson can be expected to regain that early season form. 

BIG TEN

START

Master Teague, RB, Ohio State at Maryland

I am completely serious. The Ohio State backup running back is going to put up starter-level production this week. J.K. Dobbins and Justin Fields will inflict plenty of damage on the ground, but with the Buckeyes 44-point favorites (against a conference opponent, no less), it's tough to imagine coach Ryan Day running either of them into the ground. Enter Teague, who has seen at least 23 percent of the rushing share in all but two games this season. 

Teague has also been explosive with that steady workload. He has 86 carries for 588 yards (6.84 YPC) and four touchdowns. Getting what could be a season-high carries against an overmatched Maryland defense that has given up a conference-high 16 rushing scores in Big Ten play makes Teague a fringe RB2 and, at the very least, a viable flex in Week 11. 

SIT

Rodney Smith, RB, Minnesota vs. Penn State

The conditions set up for a run-heavy game on both sides Saturday with a wintry mix in the forecast for this marquee matchup. While that would benefit Smith's carry volume, it's still enough to convince me that he's a strong play this week.

Penn State's run defense is, in a word, terrifying. The Nittany Lions allow 1.99 yards per carry —  tops in the nation. And its five rushing touchdowns allowed tie with Wisconsin for best in the Big Ten. And overall, the Nittany Lions rank sixth in defensive S&P+. Yes, Smith has been running well of late with a 6.79 YPC mark in his last five games (100 carries), it's just that this matchup is so much tougher than anything Minnesota has faced this year. With that, it's tough to trust his recent production carrying over to Saturday. 

CONFERENCE USA

START

Ty Storey, QB, Western Kentucky at Arkansas

The revenge game narrative can't be ignored here with Storey heading back to his old stomping grounds after leaving Arkansas in February. It's a good narrative, to be clear. But that's not what drives his value for this week. 

Storey has actually been excellent since winning the job and Arkansas is bottoming out. Since Week 5, Storey has averaged 23.8 fantasy points per game, which is better than Florida's Kyle Trask, Utah's Tyler Huntley and UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Now he draws a matchup against a familiar Arkansas squad that ranks 87th in defensive S&P+ and 118th in scoring defense (35.2 points per game). 

SIT

De'Michael Harris, Kevin Perkins, RB, Southern Mississippi vs. UAB

This is a matchup with major Conference USA implications, and though Southern Mississippi is the favorite, this is a tough spot for Harris. The UAB defense deserves an immense amount of credit for remaining a top-notch unit despite losing so many starters from its 2018 roster. 

UAB gives up just 92.3 rushing yards per game on 2.78 YPC, which ranks eighth in the country. The Blazers also rank 32nd in defensive S&P+ overall. Harris has garnered a solid share of the rushing work for Southern Miss at 26 percent, but Kevin Perkins also sees a heavy cut of the rushes and this coaching staff has shown to be comfortable with going with the hot hand. This is a setup where neither Harris nor Perkins get that hot hand and Southern Miss is forced to go away from the ground game. A brutal matchup along with the potential loss of carries make both Harris and Perkins stay-aways in Week 11.

MAC

START

Jaylon Bester, RB, Miami (OH) at Ohio

With one game left on the MAC slate for this week, we have limited options. But the Miami (OH) versus Ohio game should still provide some entertainment nonetheless thanks to some hapless defense on both sides. 

The worst unit on the field Wednesday will be the Ohio run defense. The Bobcats routinely get shredded on the ground to the tune of 5.47 YPC and 205 rushing yards per game. With Bester set as the lead back with 72 rushes and five scores in five games, he is set up to have one of his best games of the season against Ohio. 

SIT

Cameron Odom, WR, Ohio vs. Miami (OH)

Odom may be second on the team in target share at 15 percent, but he's been unimpressive with his chances. He has a catch rate under 50 percent and no touchdowns while averaging 5.1 YPT over a 30-target sample. Even against a mediocre Miami defense, Odom won't pose much of a threat Wednesday.

MOUNTAIN WEST

START

Xazavian Valladay, RB, Wyoming at Boise State

Valladay deserves starting consideration this week even with a tough matchup against the Broncos on the road. Boise State allows just 116.25 rushing yards per game and 3.71 YPC. But Valladay is not a run-of-the-mill tailback. Valladay ranks fourth in the Mountain West in rushing yards per game (90.1) and fourth in carries per game (16.86). There might be an even greater onus on Valladay from here on with quarterback Sean Chambers, who accounted for 25 percent of Wyoming's rushing attempts, out for the year with a knee injury. The efficiency could be spotty going against Boise, but Valladay's overall talent combined with a projected workload increase should be enough to make him worth keeping in the lineup Saturday. 

SIT

Jordan Love, QB, Utah State at Fresno State

For all the preseason adulation, Love has been one of the bigger disappointments in the country this season. A 9:12 TD:INT on top of a 6.8 YPA is not what CFF heads and draftniks had in mind for a follow-up act to his remarkable 2018. Love has just one multi-touchdown game since Week 1; he has three multi-interception games in that span. Now he has to travel to Fresno State, which only ranks 93rd in defensive S&P+.  And yet Love's track record with this supporting cast and this new coaching staff gives us little reason to believe he'll take advantage of what is a favorable matchup on paper. 

PAC-12

Jayden Daniels, QB, Arizona State vs. USC

Daniels found himself on the other side of the ledger in this column earlier this season after some freshman struggles cropped up. However, Daniels seems to be coming out on the other side of those issues and is rounding into the player that can be the face of the program for the next 2-to-3 years. 

Before the bye, Daniels turned in a surgical performance against UCLA, completing 20 of 29 passes for 267 yards and three scores while adding another 67 yards and a score on the ground. Now he's at home facing a USC defense that's nothing special against the pass (243 YPG, 11:3 TD:INT vs. PAC-12 opponents) and especially vulnerable against the run (184 rushing yards allowed per game). With Daniels' dual-threat ability, it'll be tough for this USC defense to contain him for four quarters. Daniels should be back on your fantasy radar with a favorable schedule down the stretch, beginning with Saturday's matchup.

SIT

Renard Bell, WR, Washington State at California

Bell had a brief stretch of relevancy while Brandon Arconado was sidelined and was effective with his chances against Oregon last time out, catching both of his targets for 26 yards and a touchdown. The issue is a volume cap combined with a tough matchup. Arconado, a slot threat, has 24 targets in two games since returning, which has bumped Bell's volume down to 4.0 targets per game in that span. There's also the matter of California having a top-30 defense in S&P+ that gives up just 212.9 passing yards per game. Bell was a fine DFS play there for a bit and may still be worth a dart in that context, but he's difficult to justify starting in season-long this week.

SEC

START

Freddie Swain, WR, Florida vs. Vanderbilt

Swain was one of the bright spots in the loss to Georgia and caught my eye several times as a consistent chain-mover for the Gators. He's seeing 8.0 targets per game since Week 5 and is converting that into 9.3 YPT while adding three touchdowns. Now he and the Gators get to take out their frustrations on the lowly Commodores in The Swamp on Saturday, and with Swain coming into his own as the top receiver, he should eat in Week 11. 

SIT

Larry Rountree III, RB, Missouri at Georgia

Kelly Bryant being less than 100 percent healthy is a major issue to begin with as it will allow Georgia to gameplan stopping Rountree and the running backs without having to be overly concerned with Bryant's mobility. Even if Bryant was fully healthy, this would be a stay-away for Rountree, though. I'll let this tweet from SEC Network explain what I mean ... 

With Georgia allowing the fourth-least rushing yards per game on top of giving up zero rushing scores, this is a week to explore options outside of Rountree. 

SUN BELT

START

Wesley Kennedy, RB, Georgia Southern at Troy

Finally. After sitting the first four games due to suspension and seeing limited work in his debut, we're finally seeing why Kennedy had such a high projection coming into the season. He has at least 129 yards and two scores in each of his last three games, including a season-high 145 yards on just 13 carries against Appalachian State. This Georgia Southern offense with a full-steam Kennedy is a different beast, and Troy's 116th-rated S&P+ defense is ill-prepared to do anything about it. 

SIT

Darrynton Evans, RB, Appalachian State at South Carolina

Benching a player of this caliber is far from an easy call even when considering the aesthetics of a Sun Belt running back going against an SEC team. Evans is one of the premier backs in the country, period. He averages 19.1 fantasy points per game, which ranks ahead of D'Andre Swift, Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Eno Benjamin. 

South Carolina's front is where the issue lies. Anchored by Javon Kinlaw, the South Carolina defense allows just 3.9 yards per carry and has surrendered four rushing scores all season. Appalachian State has a great offense overall and Evans is, of course, worth hanging onto the rest of the way, it's just that starting him against this South Carolina defense with this much of a size advantage is a bridge too far.