DFS College Basketball: Saturday Preview

DFS College Basketball: Saturday Preview

This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.

Last week was another mixed bag for me. I cashed once in three slates, virtually all thanks to Buddy Boeheim's ($8,400) huge night. I was again victim to right players not performing, as guys simply couldn't make shots while having ample opportunity. 

DraftKings offers 29 games Saturday across three slates, and there are some great matchups, whether it be rivalries or top-10 collisions. I'll be the first to admit I was slow to get into this college hoops season, but the last two Saturdays have been nice appetizers and Saturday feels like a great mid-course for the final month-plus before postseason play. 

I managed to cash as a fill-in Friday ... let's see if we can build some momentum.

All prices reflect DraftKings salaries unless otherwise noted.

Main Slate

The main slate features 12 games, tipping noon to 2:30 p.m. EST. Auburn and Purdue have the slate's highest implied totals, but are both big favorites and their stars are priced plenty high. The potential lopsided nature of both games makes it a tad challenging to pick an option or two from those lineups, especially when paired with price points. Xavier is also in a great spot, but with four options priced at 7k or higher, it's anyone's guess as to if and who will shine.

Overall, 16 players are $8,000 and higher, with Wake Forest's Alondes Williams ($9,800 DK, $8,400 FD) leading the way. The slate's depth certainly seems to suggest paying below that for anchors and building more balance.

Top Targets

Trayce Jackson-Davis, F, Indiana ($8,600 DK, $8,300 FD)

I'm going right back to the well after highlighting Jackson-Davis last week. He's so far consistent, having only two games with less than 30 DKP since Nov. 27.  There are just so many choices atop the pricing list that it's difficult to separate between them. There are better upside choices, but I'm more than content to build around Jackson-Davis at a moderate discount and hopefully allow for a bit more lineup balance. Jackson-Davis went for 71.5 DKP in two matchups against Illinois and Kofi Cockburn ($9,300 DK, $8,600 FD) a season ago. Cockburn dominated in this matchup last year as well and can absolutely be used if he fits your budget.

Zach Edey, F, Purdue ($7,800 DK, $7,600 FD)

Edey has a terrific 33.5 percent usage rate, but he plays only 18-20 minutes most games. Still, he's in a nice groove, averaging 15.1 ppg and 7.4 rpg in the last seven games, returning 3.7x or more five times. He went for 21.5 DKP in only 13 minutes against Michigan as a raw player last year, and I'll happily take double that here. I have no idea how he'll fair against Hunter Dickinson ($9,100, $8,500 FD), and potential foul trouble could lead to a bust. But as noted, there's a nice total in this contest and Purdue is expected to win comfortably, suggesting Edey gets his regardless of minutes.

Middle Tier

Kevin Obanor, F, Texas Tech ($6,100 DK, $5,000 FD)

Full disclosure, as I write this column, I hop around rather than pick players in the order they're listed. As this section evolved, it became a list of options who likely won't win you big bucks, but rather provide ample building blocks to use so you can take your shots elsewhere. A core, if you will. Obanor is in a game with a weak 130.5 point total, but he's been good for 21.0 to 33.0 DKP in seven of the Red Raiders' last eight, including 23.0 against these Mountaineers on Jan. 22. That flirts with 4x, and I'm happy to take that stability at a fair number at forward, where options aren't as plentiful. 

Caleb Mills, G, Florida State ($6,000 DK, $6,900 FD)

Mills' price got a little too high for his production prior to a recent illness, but it just hasn't bounced back yet. He has a nice 28.7 percent usage rate, a number you'll rarely find at this salary, and it  could go up with Anthony Polite ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD) out indefinitely. He will be incredibly chalky, even for this large slate, but he's a virtual lock for 4x at a minimum.

Values

Chuck Harris, G, Butler ($5,800)

Do we trust the metrics? Harris has a great 27.4 percent usage rate, by far the highest on the team. And while Butler is 334th in tempo, it should get a bit of a boost thanks to St. John's fourth-ranked pace. Harris has started four consecutive games, averaging 14.3 shot attempts. But he's connecting at just a 40.4 percent clip. Poor shooting, not opportunity, has been my Achilles heal lately, and with Harris doing little peripherally, there's bust potential. Still, I'll bank on high volume coming through.

El Ellis, G, Louisville ($4,000)

Ellis has been unleashed sans head coach Chris Mack. In his last two games, he's 15 of 37 from the floor. Yes, 37 shot attempts. It's led to 43 points and 58.25 DKP. At this number, there's no downside and plenty of upside in a matchup against a team that ranks 235th in adjusted defense, per KenPom, in a game with a high total of 146.5.

 Afternoon Slate

We have 10 games to consider from DraftKings, tipping 3-7 p.m. EST. That's a bit of an extended window from what we're normally presented with on Saturday's mid-day contest, and it's clearly done with intent. Not only do we have a marquee Kansas-Baylor matchup, but the Duke-North Carolina rivalry is included as well. Those two games conveniently have the highest totals and are going to draw the eye of casual players. It's hard to ignore those games, but you won't differentiate much by stacking either.

This portion of the column unintentionally had a theme emerge, and that's targeting players playing at exceptions, but priced far below season-highs, seemingly creating value across the board. Eight of the 20 teams playing are from the ACC, which is my bread and butter, so for better or worse, we're a tad heavy in targets in that conference.

Top Targets

Paolo Banchero, F, Duke ($8,800 DK, $8,300 FD)

I'm not willing to mess around with this matchup and will simply take the ace in the hole and look for options elsewhere. Banchero's price peaked at $9,800, and he's made at least 34.75 DKP in every game since, which is 4x, easily justifying this salary. He has three double-doubles in Duke's last five games, twice topping 40 DKP. I'm a UNC homer, and I have no idea who the Heels can match up with him defensively. It seems their options are an undersized Leaky Black ($4,700 DK, $5,700 FD) or an immobile Brady Manek ($7,400 DK, $6,700 FD). And they have no depth, so fouls would further exasperate their defensive limitations. Banchero is going to eat.

Blake Wesley, G, Notre Dame ($6,800)  

This looks like a nice spot to buy a dip, as Wesley has been priced as high as $7,900. He may be hitting a freshman wall, as he's hit only 18.2 percent of his shots the last four games, but we can take solace in the fact he's hoisted 55 shots in that span. You have to love that volume and 33.8 percent usage rate. North Carolina State is largely defenseless, allowing opponents to connect on 37.3 percent from 3-point range and 51.3 percent inside the arch. With a high total and tight point spread, Wesley is a lock for heavy involvement and a bounce-back game is overdue.

Middle Tier

Keve Aluma, F Virginia Tech ($6,700)

Aluma carries a 29.3 percent usage rate and has topped 30 DKP in four of the Hokies' last five games. What's not to love? Perhaps the matchup isn't ideal, as Pittsburgh is 329th in tempo, but just 150th in defense. The Hokies are 342nd in tempo, and Vegas is reflecting this with an insanely low 127.5 point total, so maybe this is fool's gold. But Virginia Tech has cranked it up lately, scoring 241 points in its last three. 

Azuolas Tubelis, F, Arizona ($6,300 DK, $5,700 FD)

Tubelis profiles somewhat similarly to Zach Edey above. He has a big 30.5 percent usage rate, but doesn't see huge minutes. He's priced way down as he's been eased back into action after an ankle injury. He has 10 games with at least 29.5 DKP, topping 40 DKP three times, bringing GPP winning upside at this price. Yes, there's bust potential, but with the Wildcats big favorites and carrying an implied total of 79.5 points, we know we want pieces. And I find their higher-tier options equally as volatile. With Arizona already playing UCLA this week, maybe the Wildcats are due a letdown, a closer game and more minutes for Tubelis as a result.

Values

Keeshawn Barthelemy, G, Colorado ($5,000)

I think the Buffaloes are sneaky offense that will be overlooked on this slate against a bad Oregon State team that is 259th defensively. The problem is I don't love paying up for Jabari Walker ($8,000), and the remaining pieces are very inconsistent. Barthelemy has a solid 24.6 percent usage rate, but is limited peripherally, so he'll need shots to fall. I don't love paying for a guy who is so reliant on scoring, but the number is low enough that he can find modest success and get us to 3x and allow for pay-ups elsewhere. It's a number he's reached in three of his last four.

Marcus Bingham, F, Michigan State ($4,700 DK, $5,200 FD)

Leaky Black, G/F, North Carolina ($4,700)

I'm not going to choose between these two; rather leave it to you, the reader. They are the same price, yet profile completely opposite. Bingham barely plays 18 minutes these days, but is so productive when on the court; I'm not quite sure what he needs to do to get more time. He averages 19.3 points and 13.3 rebounds per 40 minutes. Black does nothing great, but UNC has no depth and he's a lock for 30-plus minutes, barring foul trouble, which leads to production by default. I don't love many other value choices on this slate, so I wouldn't fault you for using both to free your budget, and both seem to have stable floors for clearly different reasons.

Evening Slate

Seven evening games wrap up our Saturday slate at DraftKings, with tips 8-10 EST. Unlike most weekends where we're heavily West Coast biased in the evening, two SEC games are included. And there are two games with totals flirting with 160 points and three more at 140-plus. I'm not used to this much expected scoring in the evening. It's a slate where you'll need to take some swings to go for broke to cash in GPPs. It's also a slate that's incredibly skewed toward frontcourts. 

Everyone knows we want shares of Oscar Tshiebwe ($9,800), Chet Holmgren ($9,500) and/or Drew Timme ($9,100). I'm not needed to tell anyone that. Get them in where you can afford, with my preference being Tshiebwe, Timme, Holmgren. Hopefull,  what's below allows for one of them to fit in financially. And if not, maybe we have some equally high upside options at a bit of a bargain.

Top Targets

Jaylin Williams, F, Arkansas ($8,800)

Williams is on a great run, having a 32.0-DKP floor in his last eight games with a 50.75-point ceiling. There's no doubt he'll come with minimal roster percentages given the big names above him, and pairing his form with a 76.0 implied team total, there just seems to be a nice discount available for stable production. Mississippi State is also thin across its front line, further bolstering Williams' base line and upside.

Andrew Nembhard, G, Gonzaga ($7,600)

If not paying up for the Zags' frontcourt, Nembhard looks like a nice secondary piece. This game has a 158-point total, a number these two sailed WAY past in a 110-84 Gonzaga win that saw Nembhard post 50 DKP. He's always a volatile scorer, and as such, if the game gets away from the opponent, he could be limited. But that doesn't figure to be the case in this contest with BYU seeking revenge, or at least to remain competitive. Nembhard has 31.0 DKP or more in four of five.

Middle Tier

Jacob Young, G, Oregon ($6,300)

Young's price continues to rise, but it's still well within range for his 26.6 percent usage. He's hoisted at least 10 shots in eight consecutive games. Pair that with a seemingly surprisingly high 140-point game total where Oregon is favored, and there's no reason to think his opportunities fall short. And with about 30 minutes locked in, he'll compile peripheral numbers en route to 4x.

Josh Minott, F, Memphis ($5,700)

Who knows who Memphis will have available Saturday? Consider this a name drop/placeholder, and know if you use any piece to this lineup, pay attention until tipoff. But Minott has taken advantage of his teammate's absences lately, putting up 31 points and 21 rebounds in his last two games. Memphis is expected to score about 75 points, and with only one option priced higher than $6,000, we know we want someone. Minott is the flavor of the week but could change if the Tigers are suddenly healthy.

Values

Keion Brooks, F, Kentucky ($5,500)

Is Brooks coming into his own, finally, for the Wildcats? For this price, I'm certainly willing to assume so. After scoring double-digits just once in eight games, Brooks has now done so in three straight, finishing with 59 total. He's almost always good for ample minutes, Alabama is undersized up front and this game has a huge total of 157 points we know we want to buy into. Brooks offers a cheap way to do so with sudden upside.

Juwan Gary, F, Alabama ($3,900)

At this number, there's virtually no risk. Gary is wildly inconsistent, but the hunch is he will be needed for as many minutes as he can handle to combat Kentucky's size with the rest of the Tide's lineup guard heavy. He owns seven games of at least 20 DKP, and five of 5.5 DKP or less, so you're forewarned about his bust potential. But a six and six line flirts with 4x. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Chris Bennett plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: k30kittles, DraftKings: k30kittles.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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