While the inside of every house has the same number of stairs going down as it has going up, the same cannot be said about the risers and fallers in the ADP Trend Report. The other day we looked at the top 10 risers in ADP over the last two weeks and saw some pretty substantial movement for several of the players. In examining the fallers on the Trend Report, we'll see that there are indeed a number of players whose stock has recently dropped, but the swings in ADP are certainly not as dramatic. With no need to waste time with pleasantries or a lengthy intro, let's take a look at this week's top 10 fallers and see if we can't makes some sense of their drop.
Player | Pos | Team | ADP | Change | 1 Wk Ago | Change | 2 Wks Ago | Trend |
Greg Jennings | WR | MIN | 92.25 | 10.20|PERCENT| | 101.67 | -43.50|PERCENT| | 57.47 | -37.70|PERCENT| |
Alfred Morris | RB | WAS | 17.38 | 7.40|PERCENT| | 18.67 | -46.40|PERCENT| | 10 | -42.50|PERCENT| |
Justin Blackmon | WR | JAX | 121.19 | 9.30|PERCENT| | 132.5 | -50.50|PERCENT| | 65.53 | -45.90|PERCENT| |
Vick Ballard | RB | IND | 173.69 | 16.30|PERCENT| | 202 | -59.10|PERCENT| | 82.6 | -52.40|PERCENT| |
Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | 195.22 | -22.70|PERCENT| | 151 | -38.70|PERCENT| | 92.53 | -52.60|PERCENT| |
Marshawn Lynch | RB | SEA | 10.34 | 4.70|PERCENT| | 10.83 | -58.20|PERCENT| | 4.53 | -56.20|PERCENT| |
Colin Kaepernick | QB | SF | 105.59 | -29.10|PERCENT| | 74.83 | -42.90|PERCENT| | 42.73 | -59.50|PERCENT| |
Arian Foster | RB | HOU | 6.66 | 0.90|PERCENT| | 6.72 | -67.30|PERCENT| | 2.2 | -67.00|PERCENT| |
Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 127.5 | -22.60|PERCENT| | 98.67 | -60.00|PERCENT| | 39.47 | -69.00|PERCENT| |
Percy Harvin | WR | SEA | 204.75 | -75.10|PERCENT| | 51 | 6.30|PERCENT| | 54.2 | -73.50|PERCENT| |
Perhaps it's his age or perhaps it's because he's gone from having one of the game's best, Aaron Rodgers, throwing him the ball to, well, someone who is not as good. It's not that Christian Ponder is bad, but he just doesn't have the same skill set and the two haven't built as strong a rapport as Greg Jennings and Rodgers once had. Jennings missed OTAs in May with a sprained ankle but participated in minicamp in June and cited a need to build chemistry with his quarterback. Reports from training camp haven't really touched on their relationship, but fantasy owners don't appear to be too keen on their developing relationship. A 37.70-percent drop isn't enormous by any means, but it represents a drop of almost three rounds.
The drop for Alfred Morris is less than a full round's worth of picks, but just as we saw last season, there's a certain amount of skepticism from fantasy owners once again. While Morris became one of the first premium running backs to come out of a Mike Shanahan backfield in a long time, owners still had a certain amount of apprehension. Eventually that waned over time, but apparently there are still some doubters that his success will last from year to year. He is falling out of the top 10 overall and is coming off the board in the early second round. Personally, I think falling even just that far will make him a bargain. Draft with confidence.
A quick look atJustin Blackmon's ADP trends here actually shows a recent surge. Not a big one, but enough to take notice of the fact that there may not be as many people fearing the four-game suspension as much anymore. A violation of the league's substance abuse policy has the Jaguars receiver on the bench for the first four weeks of the regular season – the reason behind that massive five-to seven round drop two weeks ago – but many are wising-up to the fact that he can be a huge help once reinstated for Week 5. There's no need to reach too high for him as his current ADP of 121.19 seems about right, but make sure you keep a close watch on him and don't let him slip too far.
The drop for Vick Ballard is pretty easily understandable as Ahmad Bradshaw stole his job with a quick stroke of the pen. However, the recent upswing over the past week is hopefully due to the knowledge that Bradshaw has been one of the most oft-injured running backs in recent years and could easily find his way to the sidelines with yet another foot/ankle problem. Don't let Ballard fall off your radar just yet as he can be more than just a third-down back this season.
With weapons like A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham and Giovani Bernard, I'd like to think that in his third year at the Bengals' helm, Andy Dalton can do some damage, but there seems to be very little faith in him by the public. I mean – a 100-pick drop? That's a pretty steep decline. Now while I can't say that I would trust him as anything more than a QB2/bye-week replacement, I still believe that there's some potential for him to take his game to the next level. If Mohamed Sanu or Andrew Hawkins can step up as a legitimate WR2, then with an improved ground game, Dalton could be a strong asset. He wouldn't have the job he has if he couldn't handle it and he's more than just a serviceable, Trent Dilfer-like guy who just needs to stay mistake-free. He definitely got the potential to break out and do more so if he slips that far in your league, make the small investment and bring him on-board.
Even if the drop is just five or six picks, Marshawn Lynch has no business being on this list. How you people are bypassing him is beyond belief and those of us who land him with the eighth or ninth overall pick are laughing at you, not behind your back, but right to your face. The guy is a beast. He can run between the tackles, he can take it outside and he can catch a pass and take it the length of the field for a score. Sidney Rice isn't banged up enough to say that the passing game is a lost cause without Percy Harvin, so teams won't be able to just stack the box. Lynch's current ADP, in my opinion, has him at a bargain price.
The drop that we are seeing here for Colin Kaepernickhas to be from a number of people realizing that the quarterback position is insanely deep and therefore waiting on the position is simply the smart thing to do when drafting. Or maybe it has to do with the loss of Michael Crabtree and the lack of a second receiver stepping up to complement Anquan Boldin. But WR2 competition aside, Kaepernick shouldn't be losing that much value in comparison to many of the other quarterbacks out there. Unless, of course, you're believing in the clichéd sophomore slump…
It's only a four pick drop we're looking at here and Arian Foster probably won't slip any further than that, but between the injury history and the heart condition, I have my doubts over him too.
Now, unlike Kapernick, I do believe that Russell Wilson will suffer from a sophomore slump. He's got two games apiece against some unbelievable defenses from his division, he lost Harvin, and…well….personally, I never thought he was all that great to begin with. We'll see what happens, but I'm certainly steering clear.
And finally, there's Percy Harvin. Nothing more you can say really, is there? Bum hip, lost season.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].