Taking Chris Johnson at No. 6 and No. 7 in my two NFFC drafts was a mistake. It's only one week, and the Patriots have a stout defensive front, but what happened Sunday was so similar to what happened last year, it's hard to believe it won't persist. What's frustrating is at the end of last year I didn't think of Johnson as a prospective top-10 pick for 2013, but somehow I allowed myself to get influenced by the gravitational pull of ADP. And then at some point - imperceptibly - I started believing Johnson was truly the guy to take once the big three (Foster/McCoy/Rice), Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson were off the board. I should have taken Darren McFadden instead.
DeMarco Murray looked like a top-5 back Wednesday night, and like McFadden, he's healthy now. I'm not sure how much credit we should give Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew for not often getting hurt thus far in their careers, but take away the durability factor and Murray and especially McFadden seem at least as good.
Stevan Ridley looked like a top-10 back, playing for an elite offense and seeing 21 carries for 125 yards and a score. He also caught two balls for 27 more yards. The Patriots got BenJarvus Green-Ellis 24 TDs over the last two years, and his only skill was ball security. Put a quicker, more explosive back in his place, and the sky's the limit. I'd consider trading Chris Johnson for him SU.
Alfred Morris ran with power and looked surprisingly nimble on some runs, showing a spin move en route to 96 yards and two scores. It took him 28 carries to get there, but the Redskins were well ahead for most of the second half, and the Saints knew the run was coming. Morris didn't catch a pass, and the Redskins have other options should he struggle, but for now Morris looks like the rare back Mike Shanahan trusts to handle a heavy workload.
Robert Griffin looked smooth, accurate and difficult to contain and probably would have had a much bigger day had the Redskins not nursed a big lead and taken their foot off the gas. I drafted him in Round 11 (ahead of Peyton Manning) in the 12-team, shallow-bench YF&F league, and after the Sunday night game, I'm still on the fence as to whether that was the right move.
Andrew Luck could be the king of garbage time this year, with Coby Fleener, Reggie Wayne and eventually Austin Collie also along for the ride.
The Giants run blocking is nearly as bad as the Titans', but even with a poor offensive line, the passing game is good enough to get Ahmad Bradshaw room to run when they spread it out.
Victor Cruz was still getting open at will - he just has to hold onto the ball. Hakeem Nicks looked less than crisp coming off the broken foot, but apparently he's healthy and simply a little rusty.
Kevin Ogletree won't have Justin Tryon to pick on all season. But if Miles Austin looked awfully gimpy, despite the TD, so there's a chance Ogletree becomes the de facto No. 2 the way Laurent Robinson did last year.
Peyton Manning looked like himself Sunday night, and it sure seems like Demaryius Thomas was the guy to draft, not Eric Decker. Thomas looks like a bigger, stronger, faster version of Hakeem Nicks, the type of receiver Manning's never had in his entire career. The solid-looking Denver defense might be the only thing keeping Manning from a top-5 finish as he might find himself handing off a fair amount.
I have Stephen Hill and C.J. Spiller on my bench in several leagues. The problem with a huge game from guys like that in Week 1 is that you'll rarely have them active. If Hill were to have nine TD on the year, that would be huge for a rookie, but now I can only get seven in 15 games at best. And that's assuming I'm willing to start him next week against the Steelers, something I'm not sure about.
Spiller, of course, is a different story. With Fred Jackson out indefinitely with a sprained LCL, Spiller's probably a top-10 back until Jackson returns.
I was beside myself that the Lions and Eagles came back, allowing those who took them in Week 1 to survive.
Matt Stafford is just not a great NFL quarterback. He'll throw the ball a million times and get his yards, but I'd take Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Matt Schaub and maybe even Joe Flacco over him in real life. I also think Stafford will regress in fantasy and finish outside the top five.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons receivers had a good game in Kansas City, a tough venue in which to play even though they were missing some key starters on defense. I'm still going to fade them ATS, but I'm starting think he could be a top-7, if not top-5 fantasy QB, given his schedule, team context and environment. I was never that soured on his fantasy prospects, and actually have a bet with DDD SU on him vs. Romo, but I was also not on board with people taking him in the top-five rounds, either. Plus, I've been arguing he's overrated in real life for years now. We'll have to see how he does against tougher defenses.
The Saints and Packers didn't look crisp. The Giants seemed to set the template for beating the Packers last January by eliminating big plays and getting them to dink and dunk, and the 49ers did a good job of that, too. The Saints were unbeatable at home last year, and this simply isn't the same team.
Randall Cobb and Michael Crabtree look like potential PPR stars. Crabtree in particular looked quicker and more elusive than I'd seen in the past (maybe his foot is finally better), and Cobb was lining up in the backfield and getting tons of targets. Randy Moss also looked pretty smooth in that game, but he was on the field for so few snaps it's hard to know what to make of that.
Frank Gore is still good. He might not stay healthy, and Kendall Hunter will get some carries, but there's no sign that Gore's turned into an Eddie-George-at-the-end-of-his-career plodder.
How many times does the preseason have to be proven meaningless before pundits stop analyzing it as if it were otherwise? The Jets and Cardinals were horrendous this summer, and both won in Week 1 against two of the league's trendy sleepers. Last year, the Bengals looked like the worst team on the planet, and they were forced to start a rookie because Carson Palmer refused to play for them, and that team made the playoffs. Please - as an industry practice - can we make an agreement not to hype up what happens in the fake games? (Of course, I'm not talking about health news or job battles, but quality of team play, veteran play, etc.).
The Panthers are smart not to overuse DeAngelo Williams given what an expensive asset he is.
The rookie QBs ranged for abysmal beyond abysmal (Brandon Weeden) to terrible (Ryan Tannehill) to bad (Russell Wilson) to okay (Andrew Luck) to great (Griffin). Only Luck and Griffin are guaranteed to be starting if healthy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Matt Flynn, Colt McCoy and Matt Moore under center by Week 4. Flynn in particular has some upside with a healthy Sidney Rice and Braylon Edwards on the outside.
I didn't see much of the Browns game, but I can't imagine Trent Richardson looked good getting 39 yards on 19 carries. I don't suppose it's easy to start your first NFL game coming back from knee surgery and having a passing game that the defense knows is incapable of moving the ball. While McCoy might be a below average starting QB in the NFL, he did play well at times during his rookie year, and last year was playing while concussed. A change there could help Richardson.
Michael Vick attempted 56 passes Sunday. If Jeremy Maclin stays healthy, he's going to catch 90 balls.
Maybe Adrian Peterson really is super human. We'll probably know in the next couple weeks if he has no serious ill-effects. Christian Ponder quietly got 10 YPA against the Jaguars.
Maurice Jones-Drew is probably as good a bet as anyone to lead the league in rushing.