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AFC WEST - Fantasy Preview

After looking at the NFC West, my division-by-division breakdown concludes by rating the players of the AFC West on the three B's scale (Best, Bust, Buy-Low). Not to be ignored are the IDP's and schedule analysis. Fire away with any thoughts.



Best

Jamaal Charles, RB (KC) – It's almost impossible to see Charles not posting 1,500+ yards from scrimmage this year if his surgically repaired ACL holds up okay. One just needs to look to Reggie Bush's 2011 breakout to have faith in Charles. If Bush can produce like a top back in Brian Daboll's zone-blocking scheme, just imagine what a healthy Charles can do. Watch him closely in the preseason to see if his ability to cut on a dime and accelerate to top speed is anywhere near his old form. If so, don't sleep on his top-10 upside.

Peyton Manning, QB (DEN) – The Sheriff is back in town and ready to clean up the Wild West. He may be as motivated as he's even been in his football career and he's about to take it out on the entire league. He was pushed out of the town he made, replaced by the shiny new star who's getting compared to a younger version of himself, just watched his little bro win his second ring and now faces questions of if he's "still got it." Regardless of whether or not the arm strength is all back, whether the deep ball is an option or not, or any other reasons to doubt the man, I'm not buying it. Manning will open up a can of legendary, Hall-Of-Fame whoop-ass on every defense, and with his new toys Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, he'll make it look easy.

Peyton Hillis, RB (KC) – Kansas City will employ the league's best one-two punch out of the backfield this season and is a strong candidate to lead the NFL in rushing. Hillis, the thunder to Charles' lightning, will lead the team in touchdowns and also top 1,000 total yards. An adept pass catcher, he's more than just a bruising battering ram, and his reunion with his 2010 Browns' offensive coordinator should not be discounted.

Philip Rivers, QB (SD) – Rivers' go-to target, Antonio Gates, is the healthiest he's been in years, the team welcomed the additions of Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal and should see a rise in the play of both Malcom Floyd and Vincent Brown. In short, the Chargers are loaded with weapons. Even with Ryan Mathews entering the year hurt and Vincent Jackson out of town, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see Rivers top 4,500 yards for the third consecutive season.

Eric Decker, WR (DEN) – Decker is a more polished receiver than Thomas, his more physically gifted teammate, and by all accounts, he's displayed excellent chemistry with Manning. If you can name me a Manning favorite that has yet to cash in a highly productive year when staying healthy, I'll concede that maybe Decker isn't a top-15 receiver. Until then, I'm buying him as a high-end No. 2 option.

Antonio Gates, TE (SD) – For 10 weeks in 2010 when Gates felt good and was the No. 1 target in the San Diego offense with Jackson on a prolonged holdout, he was easily the top tight end in football and poised for a record-setting year. He posted 10 scores in just those 10 contests. Although his health remains a concern given his recent foot problems, Gates is well worth the gamble considering he could once again claim the top spot for the position.

Demaryius Thomas, WR (DEN) – Just because Decker appears the safer option of the two doesn't mean Thomas won't have a big season in his own right, and perhaps even better. He is the biggest, best athlete Manning has ever had the chance to throw to. If the two build chemistry and Thomas improves in the technical aspects of his game, he has no ceiling. For now though, expect 1,000+ yards and a top-20 finish at receiver to be the floor.

Darrius Heyward-Bey
, WR (OAK) – In 2012, DHB will finally provide the payout for the Raiders' top-10 investment in the 2009 NFL Draft. With Carson Palmer flinging it a bunch, and as his go-to guy, Heyward-Bey will utilize his tremendous athleticism to reward Oakland with his first 1,000-yard season. As a mid-round pick with top-10 potential at receiver, he's an absolute steal.



Bust

Ryan Mathews, RB (SD) – Mathews is a great example of how quickly the tides can turn. In just one preseason carry he went from a top-5 pick with huge expectations and hopes to a likely bust. Right now his timetable for return from a broken clavicle looks to be more on the six weeks side, and possibly longer. But the real worry is how he'll fare after that return. Will he re-injure it? Will he still get a heavy workload? Will a backup shine in his absence to eat into his role? Too many question marks usually leads to a disappointing season, and for the Chargers' version of Darren McFadden, I wouldn't chance him any earlier than the fourth round this summer.

Darren McFadden, RB (OAK) – I hate to include McFadden on this list but I feel obligated to doubt him despite his immense athletic talents and upside. He's the Michael Vick of running backs—so much talent, so little chance of making it through 16 games.

Dwayne Bowe, WR (KC) – Bowe is setting up the recipe for a disappointing season (which incidentally isn't the smartest move when he'll again be looking for a big payday next spring). By staying away from the Chiefs' camp and refusing to sign his franchise tag, Bowe has opened the door for Jon Baldwin to show off the talent that made him a first-round draft pick in 2011 and a promising No. 1 receiver in his own right. Moreover, he's denying himself precious time to learn a new offense before Week 1. All that adds up to Bowe flopping as No. 2 fantasy wideout.

Willis McGahee, RB (DEN) – McGahee, for all his toughness and ability, is still on the wrong side of 30 and in an offense that figures to pass at about as high a rate as last year's ran the ball. The addition of Manning will prevent teams from stacking the box, but the addition of Ronnie Hillman in the draft and the lingering presence of Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno will decrease the 249 carries McGahee saw last year. Tie all that back to the concern for an imminent breakdown beginning sooner rather than later and McGahee looks like no better than a No. 3 rusher with minimal upside.

Denarius Moore, WR (OAK) – Moore will be too bust and not enough boom this season. He flashed serious big-play ability as a vertical threat during his rookie campaign, but he's now battling a hamstring issue in camp and should struggle to duplicate his long gains. Furthermore, his catch rate of just a paltry 43|PERCENT| last year showed that he's not reliable as much more than a deep threat. For my money, I'd bet Jacoby Ford outshines him this year.

Steve Breaston, WR (KC) – The Chiefs passing game cannot support three productive wideouts, and while Bowe will struggle some coming off his summer vacation, he's still a far superior player to Breaston. With the forthcoming emergence of Baldwin, this will be the first time in five years that Breaston fails to reach at least 700 receiving yards.



Buy-Low

Jon Baldwin, WR (KC) – It's becoming increasingly clear as Bowe remains absent from a camp that Baldwin has taken over that the Chiefs drafted the big, athletic youngster to replace Bowe, if not this year, then the next. Although Baldwin is getting a reputation in Kansas City's camp for abusing corners physically and making the spectacular catch look routine, he still seems to be flying under the radar. Once Bowe returns, the expectation will be that he'll immediately step in as the team's No. 1 receiver, but the expectation may not be the reality. Look for Baldwin to breakout in his second season, particularly as a great weapon in the red zone.

Carson Palmer, QB (OAK) – Palmer's career-high 8.4 yards-per-attempt and 2,753 yards in just nine and a half games provide reason for a great deal of optimism entering his first offseason as a Raider. Though that enthusiasm should be tempered given the coaching changes in Oakland, it should still be strong enough to consider Palmer a candidate to crack the top-10 this year. He has the right mix of weapons and a schedule that will force the Raiders to throw a lot from behind.

Jacob Tamme, TE (DEN) – Tamme's only pro experience came in 2010 when Dallas Clark went down with an injury, but it came with Manning triggering the ball and it saw Tamme rack up 67 catches, 631 yards and four scores in just 10 starts. Over 16 games he will at least be a PPR stud, and he has the chance to be much more if the scores go up.

Ronnie Hillman, RB (DEN) – Drafted to be Darren Sproles Lite, this scatback from San Diego St. was ultra productive in his two collegiate seasons with 38 combined scores and over 3,500 yards from scrimmage. If Hillman can shake off a hamstring ailment that has hampered him early in the preseason, he's a good bet to siphon off a big chunk of McGahee's touches, and could be a dangerous playmaker catching balls out of the backfield.

Robert Meachem, WR (SD) – Though Gates will lead the team in receiving, it's a sure bet that someone else will at least approach 1,000 yards with Rivers under center. That makes every Chargers receiver a breakout candidate. Meachem, a former first-round pick from back in 2007 with the size to be productive underneath and great promise as a vertical threat, has never lived up to his full potential. If he can build the necessary chemistry with Rivers, his ceiling may be the highest of this group.

Malcom Floyd, WR (SD) – A monster target (6-5, 225) with the ability to just stride by defenders and burn them deep, Floyd offers the most experience and chemistry with Rivers. He'd be a lock for replacing Jackson and pacing Gates for the team lead in receiving if he could just stay healthy. Let others reach for him, but if he slips at all past his current ADP of 93 overall (per Mock Draft Central), pounce on him in case he somehow stays on the field.

Vincent Brown, WR (SD) – Unlike Floyd, you shouldn't be afraid to reach a bit on Brown. After Gates, he should be the most consistent producer in San Diego's passing game. And if Floyd does go down as usual, Brown has significant upside given his ability to make tough catches in traffic, beat corners deep and pick up chunks of yardage after the catch.

Mike Goodson, RB (OAK) – Anyone that serves as the primary backup to Run DMC has to be considered a top handcuff option. With more size and overall skill than Taiwan Jones, that role should easily fall to Goodson (barring a recent neck issue). When healthy, the latter is a quality slasher with speed to get to the second level and soft hands out of the backfield. Those abilities will make him a natural fit in the Raiders zone scheme and a promising No. 2 fantasy back when McFadden goes down.

Jacoby Ford, WR (OAK) – Ford possesses game-changing speed and when the ball finds his hands he's one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL. There may not be a player in the league faster than him, which means that once Ford gets to daylight, he's gone. With Palmer's big arm, Ford could pay major dividends as a potentially lethal deep threat.



Top IDP's

Derrick Johnson, LB (KC) – Johnson is a tremendous blend of athleticism and instincts in the middle of the Kansas City defense. A true ball hawk, he's a sure bet for well over 100 tackles and could improve his sacks and forced turnover totals as well.

Von Miller, LB (DEN) – One of the league's most athletically gifted linebackers, Miller boasts the speed to burn into the backfield or chase down a wide receiver from behind. Expect his impressive rookie totals in both sacks and tackles to go up and make him an elite IDP.

Eric Berry, DB (KC) – Berry is a do-it-all defensive back who could be poised to be the best d-back in the league this year if his repaired ACL doesn't cause him trouble. He's a truly exceptional athlete and will produce good stats in every way possible.

Tyvon Branch, DB (OAK) – Branch has been an incredible source of tackles the past three seasons by defensive back standards. In that span he's finished 1st, 6th and 2nd among all d-backs in tackles, and he should be one of the first 3-5 DB IDP's taken in all leagues.

Tamba Hali, LB (KC) – Hali has only been a stand-up outside backer the past two years and as he's grown accustomed to the switch from being a traditional defensive end, he's become simply unblockable. There are just a small group of players in the league that can combine the sack and tackle totals he puts up—and he may not have even reached his ceiling yet.

Rolando McClain, LB (OAK) – If McClain plays, he's a good value pick among IDP's. Barring his appeal, he's facing a 180-day prison sentence after being convicted of assault charges in the spring. If the appeal drags out past the season, McClain could fully realize his potential under new head coach Dennis Allen (former Broncos defensive coordinator) and make his 99-tackle, 5-sack 2011 campaign pale in comparison.

Eric Weddle, DB (SD) – As DB IDP's go, Weddle is certainly among the best. However, his 2011 totals of 88 tackles and seven interceptions may have been his ceiling and are unlikely repeatable. He should still be considered a high-end option because his tackles could go up, but expectations should be tempered a bit.

Melvin Ingram, LB (SD) – The versatile wrecking ball from South Carolina is my top candidate outside of Luke Kuechly to take the Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. Though short and stout, he's super quick off the edge and will wreak havoc in opposing backfields this year for the Bolts.

Justin Houston, LB (KC) – It took awhile for Houston to grasp the transition from college d-end to pro outside linebacker, but once he did, he became a force late in his rookie season with 5.5 sacks in the last five games. Playing opposite Hali, the pair could be on par with, or perhaps even better than, the James Harrison-LaMarr Woodley combo in Pittsburgh.

Donald Butler, LB (SD) – Butler did a bit of everything for the Bolts in what was essentially his rookie year after losing 2010 to a torn Achilles. He posted 96 total tackles, two sacks, two forced fumbles and a pick six. In his second season starting in the inside of San Diego's 3-4 scheme, expect Butler's numbers to climb further, as he's far from his peak yet.

Wesley Woodyard, LB (DEN) – In a quiet breakout season, Woodyard nearly totaled 100 tackles while pacing the Broncos in that category. However, with just one sack and one interception in his four years, his upside seems limited to just being a solid source of tackles.

Takeo Spikes, LB (SD) – Spikes is one of those rare defensive players that, despite the countless car crashes over many years, doesn't seem to age. At 35 he's coming off his eighth season of at least 100 tackles, but with 2011 second-round draft pick Jonas Mouton waiting in the wings, he may have a hard time making it a ninth year.

Joe Mays, LB (DEN) – Mays will start in the middle for Denver, and although he's yet to post huge totals in his first three seasons, the 75 tackles he registered in 2011—his first year as a full-time starter—could be the tip of he iceberg for this heavy-hitter.

Elvis Dumervil, DE (DEN) – Even though charges were dropped, Dumervil could face a league suspension for a July arrest, so his stock could go way down in the near future. If he's available for 16 games, however, he's a valuable source of sacks who could have more opportunities to tee off on QB's with Manning in town.



Schedule

The AFC West squares off with the AFC North & NFC South in 2012.

Denver Broncos

Bye Week: 7

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ Oakland
Week 15 @ Baltimore
Week 16 vs. Cleveland
Week 17 vs. Kansas City

Overall: Five matchups could slow the Manning machine in Denver: Pittsburgh, Houston, Baltimore and Kansas City twice. Two of those meetings come during playoff time, which is unfortunate, but if Manning plays up to his pre-neck-injury form, there's no week to bench your top Broncos.

San Diego Chargers

Bye Week: 7

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ Pittsburgh
Week 15 vs. Carolina
Week 16 @ New York Jets
Week 17 vs. Oakland

Overall: Getting the Chiefs' talented defense twice and the top half of the AFC North are the main blemishes on an otherwise inviting schedule. Unfortunately, having to go to the Steelers and the Jets in December could be a playoff nightmare for anyone relying on Rivers or employing some of his weapons. With that in mind, it might be wise to back up Rivers with a passer facing softer defenses come Weeks 14 and 16.

Oakland Raiders

Bye Week: 5

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. Denver
Week 15 vs. Kansas City
Week 16 @ Carolina
Week 17 @ San Diego

Overall: Their playoff matchup versus the Chiefs at home looks like the lone tough test down the stretch, while trips to KC and Baltimore and a visit from Pittsburgh mark the only other intimidating threats. The rest of the slate is littered with uneven and unproven units that will struggle to contain the Raiders' speed.

Kansas City Chiefs

Bye Week: 7

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ Cleveland
Week 15 @ Oakland
Week 16 vs. Indianapolis
Week 17 @ Denver

Overall: The winner of the easiest path to fantasy numbers in the division has to be the Chiefs because, well, they don't have to face themselves. Without another stifling defense in the AFC West, the Chiefs primary roadblocks to offensive success appear to be just trips to Buffalo and Pittsburgh and a visit from the Ravens.