With a number of PPR mock drafts taking place recently, it's time to start looking at some of the trends that are happening right now. It's still fairly early in the process and there's likely to be plenty more movement, but starting now allows you to properly formulate a draft strategy and then continue to fine tune it over the next few weeks as players continue to rise and fall in the ADP rankings. Today we're going to look at the top 24, or basically the first two rounds of a 12-team PPR league. We'll note some of the differences versus an NFL standard league and then track some of the recent movement we've seen over the last two weeks to get a feel for potential risers and fallers.
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
| Arian Foster | RB | HOU | 1.17 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 1.18 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 1.18 | 0.9|PERCENT| |
| LeSean McCoy | RB | PHI | 2.29 | 11.4|PERCENT| | 2.55 | -7.5|PERCENT| | 2.36 | 3.1|PERCENT| |
| Ray Rice | RB | BAL | 3.08 | -2.6|PERCENT| | 3.00 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 3.00 | -2.6|PERCENT| |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | JAX | 5.29 | -14.0|PERCENT| | 4.55 | -2.2|PERCENT| | 4.45 | -15.9|PERCENT| |
| Ryan Mathews | RB | SD | 5.50 | 5.8|PERCENT| | 5.82 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 5.82 | 5.8|PERCENT| |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 7.17 | 1.4|PERCENT| | 7.27 | 6.3|PERCENT| | 7.73 | 7.8|PERCENT| |
| Chris Johnson | RB | TEN | 7.83 | 5.6|PERCENT| | 8.27 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 8.18 | 4.5|PERCENT| |
| Trent Richardson | RB | CLE | 7.83 | -3.6|PERCENT| | 7.55 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 7.64 | -2.4|PERCENT| |
| Calvin Johnson | WR | DET | 8.00 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 8.09 | -2.2|PERCENT| | 7.91 | -1.1|PERCENT| |
| DeMarco Murray | RB | DAL | 11.33 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 11.18 | -8.1|PERCENT| | 10.27 | -9.4|PERCENT| |
| Drew Brees | QB | NO | 12.67 | 11.2|PERCENT| | 14.09 | -1.9|PERCENT| | 13.82 | 9.1|PERCENT| |
| Marshawn Lynch | RB | SEA | 12.79 | -4.1|PERCENT| | 12.27 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 12.09 | -5.5|PERCENT| |
| Adrian Peterson | RB | MIN | 13.63 | -2.0|PERCENT| | 13.36 | 2.1|PERCENT| | 13.64 | 0.1|PERCENT| |
| Darren McFadden | RB | OAK | 14.54 | -7.5|PERCENT| | 13.45 | 3.4|PERCENT| | 13.91 | -4.3|PERCENT| |
| Matt Forte | RB | CHI | 16.08 | 8.0|PERCENT| | 17.36 | 3.2|PERCENT| | 17.91 | 11.4|PERCENT| |
| Tom Brady | QB | NE | 17.08 | 7.5|PERCENT| | 18.36 | -2.9|PERCENT| | 17.82 | 4.3|PERCENT| |
| Jamaal Charles | RB | KC | 17.13 | -1.8|PERCENT| | 16.82 | 1.6|PERCENT| | 17.09 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| Cam Newton | QB | CAR | 18.38 | 1.4|PERCENT| | 18.64 | 1.9|PERCENT| | 19.00 | 3.4|PERCENT| |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | 21.13 | 5.8|PERCENT| | 22.36 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 21.82 | 3.3|PERCENT| |
| Michael Turner | RB | ATL | 21.75 | 4.5|PERCENT| | 22.73 | -5.6|PERCENT| | 21.45 | -1.4|PERCENT| |
| A.J. Green | WR | CIN | 22.00 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 22.00 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 21.64 | -1.6|PERCENT| |
| Jimmy Graham | TE | NO | 24.13 | -4.7|PERCENT| | 23.00 | 11.5|PERCENT| | 25.64 | 6.3|PERCENT| |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | NE | 25.50 | 8.0|PERCENT| | 27.55 | -2.6|PERCENT| | 26.82 | 5.2|PERCENT| |
| Doug Martin | RB | TB | 26.04 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 25.82 | -6.7|PERCENT| | 24.09 | -7.5|PERCENT| |
In truth, there's really not a whole lot of difference between the top 24 players here than the same group for NFL Standard leagues right now. Running backs are still the most highly coveted players, your top four quarterbacks are still going within the first two rounds, and you still have three of the top four wide receivers sitting this high up in the ADP rankings. The primary difference is the inclusion of the top two tight ends in this picture. Both Jimmy Graham (6th) and Rob Gronkowski (16th) were in the top 20 for targets last season and both should continue to be strong focal points for their team's offensive game plan. Obviously more targets leads to more catches and in PPR you could be looking at an 8-10 point swing in your favor owning one of them. If you're looking for a tight end who plays and scores like a top wide receiver, then keep tracking their ADPs and see where you might end up needing to draft one. Both have taken an increase over the last two weeks, so the price you pay will be steep.
Top Riser: Matt Forte – The addition of Michael Bush to the Chicago backfield can be somewhat of a hassle in standard leagues, but Forte is seeing an increase in his ADP due to how the running back workload will probably be split up. Bush is big and bruising and will take care of the majority of rushes between the tackles which frees up Forte for cut-and-runs outside, as well as plenty of third down work and screen passes. What he may lose in a few touchdowns over the season, he is likely to more than make up for the differential with half a dozen catches out of the backfield each week.
Top Faller: Maurice Jones-Drew – This drop is actually reflected in all leagues as we appear headed for a bitter holdout. Jones-Drew is looking to renegotiate with two years still left on his existing contract and GM Gene Smith says that he has no plans to negotiate another deal and expects MJD to honor his current deal. There's no telling how long this could actually go on, but fantasy owners are expressing their concern as he continues to drop in the ADP ranks.
Ryan Mathews continues to see an increase in ADP as he is becoming a more popular pick now that Mike Tolbert is gone and only Ronnie Brown sits as the next in line. He had 50 catches last year off of 59 targets for 455 yards and with questions still lingering regarding Philip Rivers' shoulder strength, there's a chance that we see a little more of the ground game than we've seen in recent years. However, in the news today reports are coming in saying that running back Jackie Battle is joining the Chargers backfield which might put a bit of a damper on a potential meteoric rise into the top five for Mathews. It probably won't do as much damage as some might think, though, so keep talking up the Battle signing and hope to grab Mathews at a more bargain price.
A 9.4|PERCENT| drop for DeMarco Murray is very interesting here and likely comes from two sources. First of all, he is not the primary pass-catching back in Dallas. He had just 35 targets in comparison to Felix Jones' 44 and there doesn't seem to be any pressing concern for a change. With Jones playing for a new contract, there seems to be more of a feeling directed toward seeing what he can do rather than increasing the workload for Murray. Couple that with the 9.1|PERCENT| increase we've seen for Drew Brees and it's just a matter of time before we see Murray falling out of the top 10 overall in PPR formats.
And finally, legal troubles have contributed to the ADP decline for Seahwaks RB Marshawn Lynch who was arrested and charged with a DUI last week. Discussions of how this event violated both the substance-abuse policy AND the personal conduct policy have led to massive speculation regarding a suspension. However, that talk has seemingly died down a little recently because technically, this would be his first violation and thus not require a suspension. Depending on the knowledge of your fellow owners, you can do something similarly to what you should be doing with Mathews. Talk up the negatives loud enough, hope his ADP continues to take a slight hit, and someone is going to get scared off.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at [email protected].