As soon as the NFL draft ended last month I broke down the rookies that figure to make some noise in fantasy next season and where they might go in drafts this summer. What I didn't consider were the players most affected by the rookies joining their team. So in the interest of examining the bigger picture impact of this rookie class to the fantasy world, I looked at a large number of situations and how the rest of the roster shakes up due to various rookie additions.
In this first of two parts, I'm looking just at the skill guys that went in the first two rounds of the draft, in the order in which I think the rookie player will be the most successful. In some cases I've indicated that rookie as in a direct competition for snaps with a returning player (as in "vs."), while in others I'm looking more at what a rookie addition will do "for" a better, more established player, i.e., how they might help or hurt that player. As you'll immediately notice, I ignored the top quarterbacks and Trent Richardson, as they're not competing with anyone for playing time and we already know they should increase the value of all those that surround them. As for the rest, take a look and consider for yourself what these additions mean, and if you feel the need, let me know how right or wrong I am.
Doug Martin vs. LeGarrette Blount
- This backfield will get a ton of scrutiny leading up to drafts, as the more featured of the two runners is likely to see a lot of carries behind one of, if not the best run-blocking lines in football. Martin is the early favorite because of his comparisons to Ray Rice and coach Greg Schiano's calling out of Blount's fumblitis. But don't discount Blount entirely. He's reportedly lost a bit of weight this offseason to make himself quicker in pass protection and route running in an effort to become a more complete back. And though it's likely he won't catch up to Martin's receiving skills, it could still earn him a few more downs throughout the season. Additionally, if Blount proves more effective in short yardage, he could become one of the league's premier touchdown vultures. The health of both could play a big role during the preseason, as Martin has already experienced tightness in his hamstring during the team's first OTAs and Blount had several injury issues last season. Expect Martin to be the more productive in terms of yards, but it's a coin flip as of now in the touchdown department.
Michael Floyd for Larry Fitzgerald and Cardinals QB's
- Floyd is a huge addition to the Cardinals' offense. He should immediately aid Fitzgerald and whoever lines up under center. By providing another big-bodied receiver with strong hands for defensive backs to worry about, he will limit how often Fitzgerald is double-teamed and give John Skelton or Kevin Kolb an excellent option opposite Fitz. While he'll certainly take targets away from Early Doucet and Andre Roberts, he will also open up the middle of the field more for each of them to be more efficient with the catches they do make working out of the slot. Floyd has good mid-round value as a nice red zone weapon who has the speed to get over the top of a defense and the body and strength to outmuscle them underneath. He will take some targets away from Fitz but won't diminish his value by any means. The two should complement each other nicely and allow for both players to be effective in fantasy, with Fitz as a clear-cut No. 1 and Floyd as a No. 3 with upside.
Justin Blackmon vs. Laurent Robinson
- Robinson won't be affected so much by Blackmon's addition as much as the significant downgrade in quarterback play from Tony Romo to Blaine Gabbert. In fact, Blackmon should open things up a bit for Robinson, who isn't likely to draw any double teams with the more physical, more talented Blackmon opposite him. Either way though, a repeat of his 11-score breakout year is out of the question for Robinson. He will play the second fiddle to Blackmon, and in this offense, even the No. 1 wideout is only good for about 6-8 touchdowns at best. Robinson won't be completely without value, as he's excellent at breaking off routes to help bail out his QB, but expecting any better than about 700-800 yards and 4-6 scores would be overly optimistic. And he will fall short of Blackmon in both categories.
David Wilson vs. Ahmad Bradshaw
- Bradshaw's bionic foot could go a long way towards determining just how impactful Wilson's rookie season is. If Bradshaw stays healthy all year, expect Wilson to remain in a backup, 7-10 touches per week role. If the more experienced Bradshaw once again struggles to stay healthy (the more likely scenario), the equally-if-not-more-so dynamic Wilson could see a DeMarco Murray-esque mid or late season explosion. Wilson is a tenacious runner with excellent quickness and burst who runs bigger than his size and is very dangerous in the open field. If he gets a few spot starts, he could produce like a top-10 back for a few weeks in the Giants' explosive offense. At the end of the day, Wilson should easily downgrade Bradshaw's overall value and steal touches from him in both the run and pass game, and he should outright steal the job from Bradshaw in 2012—something to be mindful of in keeper leagues.
Ryan Broyles vs. Titus Young and Nate Burleson
- Mark my words: before the end of the 2012 season, Broyles will become the No. 2 receiver for the Lions. Young has big play ability and Burleson has experience, but neither is the all-around talent that Broyles is. He may start the year off on the PUP list, but don't be shocked if he still posts 50+ catches as a rookie. He's just the kind of smooth, underneath receiver to perfectly complement Calvin Johnson, and he'll very quickly become one of Matthew Stafford's best friends.
Brian Quick vs. Danario Alexander
- There may not be a competent receiving threat in St. Louis anytime soon, but since they keep brining in new options, the possibility remains for a fantasy starter to emerge. Quick was a high enough pick and has a high enough upside given his size and athleticism that he will immediately steal Alexander's starting gig. Of course, it doesn't exactly help Alexander's chances so much that he has the knees of an arthritic retiree and he's already dealing with a hamstring issue that could make the Rams question even keeping him. Coming from tiny Appalachian State, Quick's transition to the pro game likely won't befit his name, but his raw skills alone will net him a few big games. He's a solid flyer pick who could emerge to have a 700+ yard season with a half dozen or so scores given his red zone presence.
Kendall Wright vs. Nate Washington and Damian Williams
- If he can learn the playbook, Wright has plenty of talent to get himself into the mix in Tennessee very early. If Kenny Britt is slow coming back from last year's ACL tear, Wright becomes the team's best deep threat immediately, and he's already their most dangerous runner after the catch. That combination of skills will get him on the field before Williams, who struggled with consistency all season after Britt went down, and could lead to him challenging Washington for the role as the No. 2. Though a quarterback transition could make for a shaky pass offense if Jake Locker's erratic accuracy doesn't improve, Wright is still worth a late flyer pick at this point, and could play his way up draft boards with a nice preseason. At worst, he should be a 500+ yard guy as a rookie with potential for 4-6 scores. In a somewhat limited pass attack, those numbers will significantly devalue Washington and basically make Williams worthless.
Isaiah Pead for Steven Jackson
- Pead will likely spell Jackson primarily on passing downs, but he could slowly eat into his carries as well as the season progresses. Jackson is getting up there in age and has a huge amount of touches on his burly body, so it's possible that Jeff Fisher will try to preserve him for another season by working Pead in more and more. As an explosive home-run hitter, Pead could be utilized in a similar role that Chris Johnson saw as a rookie under Fisher, albeit in a much more limited capacity. Regardless, his speed makes Pead one to take a flyer on in all leagues and should lead to him eating into Jackson's workload from Day 1.
Rueben Randle vs. Ramses Barden
- The No. 3 receiver spot for the defending champs is pretty much Randle's to lose. Barden, despite having great physical tools to work with, has done nothing in three injury-riddled seasons. Randle could be a bit raw as a route runner, but Eli Manning will get the most of his skillset. A lanky, jump ball type with good hands and deceptive, long-strider speed, Randle should post numbers comparable to Mario Manningham's 2011 season, and should Hakeem Nicks miss any games (he's missed at least one in all three of his seasons), he'd be worth a spot start in most leagues.
Alshon Jeffery vs. Earl Bennett and for Brandon Marshall
- Jeffery reminds me an awful lot of a less athletic version of Jon Baldwin. That doesn't mean he won't have any success as a rookie. That just means I don't trust him at this point. He's extremely gifted physically, but I don't trust his maturity. And that could be a scary proposition when you pair him with Marshall and a quarterback in Jay Cutler that has no problem calling out his teammates. Nevertheless, if he can conduct himself like a pro and learn the Bears' offense quickly, Jeffery could end up starting out of the gate, or at least seeing a lot of reps opposite Marshall. With his size posing another physical threat, Jeffery could make it tough for defenses to double Marshall, particularly in the red zone. Ultimately, his presence should help the other Chicago receivers much more than hurt them, and that could include Devin Hester, who stands to lose the most targets. Even Hester should see less coverage and have a chance to consistently burn nickel backs when he's on the field. This offense could be very dangerous with Jeffery's addition, and although the other weapons around him should limit his individual fantasy value, Marshall's should be better than ever and even Bennett should have plenty of opportunities working out of the slot against little coverage.
Stephen Hill for Santonio Holmes and Mark Sanchez
- With just his physical attributes alone to demand coverage, Hill should lift some of the burden off Holmes' shoulders. Other than these two, there's really just Dustin Keller and basically nothing else to speak of in terms of receiving threats. Though he's going to be behind the curve from a mental standpoint coming out of the Georgia Tech triple option attack, Hill should have plenty of opportunities to make something out of his 6-foot-4, 215 pound, blazing fast body. So some upside does exist if he develops early chemistry with Sanchez. He should be drafted as a late-round flyer in all leagues, but personally, I wouldn't touch a Jet other than Shonn Greene.
LaMichael James vs. Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Brandon Jacobs
- James is the lightning in a bottle for San Fran. He will have some moments during the 2012 season that make his fantasy potential seem very tantalizing, but with the presence of Gore getting at least 50|PERCENT| of the carries, Hunter battling him for passing downs and no goal line looks to be had, James' upside is just that—moments. He'll have the occasional big play and maybe one or two games in the vicinity of 100 total yards, but he's otherwise just someone to consider for the future or barring injuries. The real loser of the Niners' group is clearly Gore. It's just extremely hard to see him getting the touches he'll need to be a high-end fantasy back. I'd look at him as a low end No. 2 back, and won't be at all surprised if he's not even a top-20 guy.
A.J. Jenkins vs. Mario Manningham and Randy Moss
- Jenkins' 4.4-speed and smooth route running helped him make the unexpected climb into the end of the first round, but it might not be enough to earn him a significant role in the receiver rotation in the Bay. With Moss reportedly looking like his old self in workouts and Manningham easily the more skilled and developed pro at this point, Jenkins is going to be the odd man out as a rookie. Michael Crabtree may still be the team's No. 1 wide receiver, and even as that Vernon Davis could end up leading the team in yards and scores if his monstrous playoff run carries over to the regular season. Barring an injury to one of the team's veteran wideouts, Jenkins doesn't look draftable in anything other than dynasty leagues and isn't likely to produce more than a few hundred yards and maybe a couple scores this season in the Niners' limited passing attack.
- The Browns will talk up competition all spring and leading into this summer's training camp, but in reality this is Weeden's job to lose. He's just significantly more gifted as a passer than McCoy and should immediately upgrade Cleveland's passing offense if he doesn't struggle too much to take snaps under center. Coming from the spread offense, that's the primary concern with Weeden. His arm however, is far from concerning. The same cannot be said for McCoy, who simply doesn't have the velocity behind the ball to make all the throws he needs to in a West Coast attack. Weeden will still struggle because of the strong division and his weak receiving corps, but he immediately upgrades the value of Greg Little, the only noteworthy receiving option on the team and should take some pressure off Trent Richardson's burly shoulders.
- This should be Moore's job virtually all season, but given the pick that was spent to get Tannehill and the fact that the offense is expected to be very similar to what Tannehill ran with offensive coordinator Mike Sherman coaching him at Texas A&M, it won't be. Expect Tannehill to get a chance to start before the midpoint of the season and expect the Dolphins to let him cook in the fire the rest of the year. With the league's worst crop of receivers, it projects to be a miserable season for both guys, and neither should even sniff a fantasy roster this summer. In fact, barring some sort of shocking turn of events, anyone related to this passing game can be ignored as well.