As we inch closer and closer to Opening Day and see more of what's happening in spring training camps, it's always important to check in on the ADP trend report to see the fallout in fantasy drafts. The other day we looked at the top 10 risers in ADP rank and detailed the reasons for the movement, so it's only fair today to look at the top 10 fallers as well. The first round of spring cuts is this Thursday so with more position battles being won and lost, with more rotation spots being filled, we're starting to see some drop-off in names that may have been more hopeful candidates just a few weeks ago. Here's a look at how things are shaping up…or down, should we say.
Top 10 Fallers
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
| Matt Kemp | 2.39 | -15.9|PERCENT| | 2.01 | -20.4|PERCENT| | 1.60 | -33.1|PERCENT| |
| Alberto Callaspo | 449.79 | -30.1|PERCENT| | 314.34 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 315.37 | -29.9|PERCENT| |
| Orlando Hudson | 447.72 | -9.7|PERCENT| | 404.29 | -21.7|PERCENT| | 316.40 | -29.3|PERCENT| |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 439.35 | -35.3|PERCENT| | 284.35 | 10.9|PERCENT| | 315.37 | -28.2|PERCENT| |
| Manny Ramirez | 420.84 | -13.0|PERCENT| | 366.04 | -16.7|PERCENT| | 305.03 | -27.5|PERCENT| |
| Scott Sizemore | 404.29 | -8.7|PERCENT| | 369.14 | -19.9|PERCENT| | 295.72 | -26.9|PERCENT| |
| Alexi Casilla | 312.27 | -25.0|PERCENT| | 234.33 | -2.0|PERCENT| | 229.75 | -26.4|PERCENT| |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 330.88 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 330.88 | -26.3|PERCENT| | 244.02 | -26.3|PERCENT| |
| Aaron Crow | 444.62 | -11.9|PERCENT| | 391.89 | -11.3|PERCENT| | 347.42 | -21.9|PERCENT| |
| Trevor Bauer | 432.21 | 3.1|PERCENT| | 445.65 | -23.4|PERCENT| | 341.22 | -21.1|PERCENT| |
Well, the greatest percentage drop still comes with the least amount of movement in drafts. With Ryan Braun's quick ascension to the top of the rankings, Matt Kemp has lost his stranglehold on the number one spot. It's obviously more of a testament to Braun's abilities than it is a slight on Kemp, so you probably shouldn't even give it another thought. Though he's fallen to number two here, there are still plenty of league drafts where he continues to be the first name off the board.
Once a viable option in the middle infield due to his multi-position eligibility, Alberto Callaspo continues to drop in both drafts and value this spring. The addition of Albert Pujols has changed the face of the Angels infield and Callaspo has become a casualty. Mark Trumbo is being moved over to third base which puts Callaspo and teammate Maicer Izturis back onto the bench as utility infielders. The club will carry both of them, but with no starting job, their value has greatly diminished.
The jury is still out as to whether the O-Dog is dropping in ADP due to the fact that he's old and breaking down or whether people are just tired of hearing Orlando Hudson referred to as the O-Dog. He has barely been fantasy relevant the last few seasons and the Padres were shopping him fairly aggressively this winter. But with Logan Forsythe injured, it looks like the Padres second base job still belongs to Hudson. As you can see by the continued drop to a 447.72 ADP, he is nothing more than waiver fodder during the season.
The drop for Yuniesky Betancourt may not be surprising because of who he is and what he's done for fantasy owners the past few seasons, but it is a little surprising given his apparent role this spring and supportive comments from manager Ned Yost. Originally signed a s a utility player, Betancourt is having himself a fairly strong spring campaign. As a result of that, Yost has said that he wants Betancourt to start three to four times a week. If that truly is the case, and maybe his ADP is dropping because no one believes, then he'll actually have some relevance in AL-only leagues this year. However, this could also just be motivational lip service from Yost to keep his young infielders on their toes.
The drop for Manny Ramirezcontinues. After all the initial fanfare subsided, it's back to business for fantasy owners and drafting ManRam is, once again, a low priority. The A's have decided that Ramirez will get all of his remaining spring at bats in minor league games so that the club can give longer looks to those DH candidates that will begin the season with the big club. On top of working on his conditioning and getting back into his baseball routine, Ramirez still has a 50-game suspension looming so it's not like he's a worthwhile option at this point in time.
Though he's still in the system and is probably listed here due to his ranking on Mock Draft Central and late-round switched to auto-draft, Scott Sizemore is not an option anymore in 2012. He was just placed on the 60-day disabled list and will spend the entire season recovering from a torn ACL.
It has become apparent, especially with a 26.4|PERCENT| drop over the last two weeks, that few people are buying into this Alexi Casilla resurgence. He had a tremendous season in the Dominican winter league this year and is batting .438 with three runs scored, four walks and two stolen bases in 20 plate appearances. He's slated to be the Twins starting second baseman this season, but it doesn't look like anyone's buying. You could try to use this to your advantage as it means you'll be able to get him for super cheap. Not that you should be using him as a primary middle infielder, but he could make for some interesting bench depth this year.
The drop in ADP for Yorvit Torrealba shouldn't come as any sort of a surprise really. With a dugout full of healthy players, the best way to keep Mike Napoli's bat in the lineup is to keep him behind the plate. Michael Young is manning the DH role again and while Napoli will get the occasional time at first base, Torrealba just isn't going to get himself the playing time necessary for relevance, even in two-catcher leagues. However, he needs to stay on the radar as players like Adrian Beltre and Ian Kinsler have been known for their DL stints which, of course, puts Young in the infield and Napoli as the DH.
Aaron Crow was a pretty popular pick when it was first announced that he was being stretched out as a starter this year and would be given a shot at competing for a spot in the back end of the Royals' rotation. However, with candidates such as Felipe Paulino, Danny Duffy and Luis Mendoza, Crow has fallen out of consideration somewhat. His experience in the bullpen will keep him up with the big club, but it looks like another season of relief for the young right-hander.
And finally, there's another young up-and-comer who is sliding down the ADP ranks in Trevor Bauer. He projects as a potential ace in the long term and is already having himself a decent spring, but with the Diamondbacks rotation full and healthy, it looks like the 21-year old righty is slated to start the season in the minors. He's still on a bit of a fast track so keep an eye on him in case anything should happen to one of the regulars. With a solid 5-pitch arsenal and real live arm, he should be ready for the show in no time.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].