Andrew Bailey, P, BOS – There are several reasons to avoid Bailey this season. By now we should be familiar with Bailey's injury history which makes him no guarantee to stay healthy for the whole season. He moves out of the Oakland Coliseum and into Fenway, a move that hurts him from both the change in ballparks and divisions. The move out of Oakland could prove costly; Bailey has consistently had around a 45 percent fly ball rate over his past three seasons. This will not play as well in Fenway and the Yankees, Orioles and Blue Jays all finished in the top-5 teams for home runs last season (Boston was third). Finally, Boston has on their roster a few in-house replacements should Bailey falter or get hurt. Mark Melancon was acquired in the Jed Lowrie trade and there's no guarantee Daniel Bard moves into the rotation (see Neftali Feliz, 2011). If Bailey stays healthy and can be effective he could be in line for a career season. I just don't see that happening.
Melky Cabrera, OF, SF – I loved the fact that the Royals "sold high" on Cabrera since I think we'll be looking back five years from now and point to 2011 as his career season. Melky was able to turn a career-high 658 at-bats into 18 home runs, 20 stolen bases and 102 runs scored. Not only were those stats the best of his career, they were generally 50 percent higher than any of his previous bests. While historically Kauffman Stadium has played similarly to AT&T Park, the change in managing philosophies between Bruce Bochy and Ned Yost will hurt Cabrera's fantasy value. Melky only had a 66 percent success rate on the base paths last season (20-for-30) and the difference between the Royals stolen base attempts (211) and the Giants (136) indicates he won't be as active this season running. Throw in that Melky had a career-high .332 BABIP without an increase in his line drive rate and that his walk rate was at a five-year low while his strikeout rate was at a five-year high (indicating no improvement in plate discipline) and I'll steer clear of him this season.
Alex Avila, C, DET – Avila turned in an excellent season handling full-time catcher duties for the Tigers. He finished the season with 19 home runs, 82 RBI, 63 runs and a .295 batting average. The problem with Avila is it's going to be hard for him to replicate those numbers without changing his approach at the plate. Most of his numbers from 2010 were similar; his line drive rate increased a whole .2 percent yet his batting average increased from .228 to .295. Of course the 88-point increase in BABIP explains that his batting average improved due to luck, not development. This season without developing further at the plate will mean that Avila should see a significant drop in batting average and in turn his counting stats. The power is legit and he should remain a 20-homer threat but considering you can get J.P. Arencibia around 70 spots lower, shouldn't you pass on Avila?
Matt Kemp, OF, LAD – I'll preface this with the acknowledgement that I'm really nitpicking here. Kemp is going as the top overall pick in some drafts, something I just can't buy into. If given the number one spot in any league, for me it's a no-brainer to take Albert Pujols. Not only is he moving to a park that plays better to right-handed power hitters but Pujols showed a Wolverine-like ability to heal if he gets injured. Throw in Mike Scioscia, who loves to run, and that could mean a handful of stolen bases on top of 40+ homers and 120 RBI - you've got the safest pick in the first round. Getting back to Kemp, he should be the first pick if you knew he could duplicate his numbers from last season (.324 BA, 39 homers, 40 stolen bases). However, it's pretty easy to prognosticate that a duplicate 2011 isn't in the works. Kemp's .324 batting average was fueled by a .380 BABIP (with no drastic changes from hit types) which was his best mark over a full season by 35 points. A correction in the batting average will lead to a lower OBP and theoretically fewer stolen base attempts. He's still worthy of a first round pick, I just don't think he should be a top-3 pick.
Other players I wouldn't pay for based on last year's results: Justin Verlander, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jose Valverde, James Shields and Curtis Granderson.
Over the next few days I'll post another blog, this time looking at players I'd target.