While starting pitching is normally the deepest position available in fantasy baseball, it's still important to look at the ADP trends to see just how high or low people are valuing starters in their leagues. In looking at the results from the 552 qualifying, mixed 5x5 drafts, it would seem that the elite starting pitching is still highly valued, but the trends just might indicate that more people are becoming more offensive-minding in their drafting habits. While 50 of the top 180 overall picks are starting pitchers (27.8|PERCENT|), the ADP trend is on the downturn for slightly more than half of them.
The Top 50 Starting Pitchers
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | ||
| 8) | Justin Verlander | 8.97 | -1.9|PERCENT| | 8.80 | 7.0|PERCENT| | 9.42 | 5.0|PERCENT| |
| 15) | Roy Halladay | 15.14 | -4.5|PERCENT| | 14.46 | -8.6|PERCENT| | 13.21 | -12.7|PERCENT| |
| 16) | Clayton Kershaw | 15.48 | -6.3|PERCENT| | 14.51 | -12.7|PERCENT| | 12.66 | -18.2|PERCENT| |
| 21) | Cliff Lee | 20.82 | -4.9|PERCENT| | 19.80 | -5.8|PERCENT| | 18.65 | -10.4|PERCENT| |
| 24) | Tim Lincecum | 24.86 | -2.0|PERCENT| | 24.36 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 23.95 | -3.7|PERCENT| |
| 27) | Felix Hernandez | 27.22 | -3.4|PERCENT| | 26.29 | -6.2|PERCENT| | 24.65 | -9.4|PERCENT| |
| 30) | CC Sabathia | 31.03 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 30.83 | -3.4|PERCENT| | 29.79 | -4.0|PERCENT| |
| 32) | Cole Hamels | 31.88 | -4.5|PERCENT| | 30.46 | -10.8|PERCENT| | 27.18 | -14.7|PERCENT| |
| 34) | Jered Weaver | 33.81 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 33.09 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 32.91 | -2.7|PERCENT| |
| 37) | David Price | 39.47 | -3.7|PERCENT| | 37.99 | -6.7|PERCENT| | 35.44 | -10.2|PERCENT| |
| 42) | Dan Haren | 43.06 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 42.51 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 42.11 | -2.2|PERCENT| |
| 49) | Zack Greinke | 50.96 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 51.59 | 4.5|PERCENT| | 53.91 | 5.8|PERCENT| |
| 50) | Yovani Gallardo | 51.39 | -2.5|PERCENT| | 50.11 | -4.5|PERCENT| | 47.85 | -6.9|PERCENT| |
| 51) | Jon Lester | 51.50 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 50.61 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 50.89 | -1.2|PERCENT| |
| 59) | Matt Cain | 60.68 | 3.1|PERCENT| | 62.56 | 3.4|PERCENT| | 64.70 | 6.6|PERCENT| |
| 62) | Stephen Strasburg | 62.04 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 60.76 | 3.2|PERCENT| | 62.69 | 1.0|PERCENT| |
| 65) | James Shields | 67.22 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 66.36 | 1.6|PERCENT| | 67.42 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| 68) | Ian Kennedy | 70.16 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 70.95 | 3.9|PERCENT| | 73.71 | 5.1|PERCENT| |
| 72) | Mat Latos | 71.94 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 71.81 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 72.28 | 0.5|PERCENT| |
| 74) | Madison Bumgarner | 74.94 | 1.6|PERCENT| | 76.12 | 4.3|PERCENT| | 79.43 | 6.0|PERCENT| |
| 85) | Dan Hudson | 87.59 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 86.11 | -5.0|PERCENT| | 81.79 | -6.6|PERCENT| |
| 86) | Ricky Romero | 87.66 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 86.56 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 84.46 | -3.7|PERCENT| |
| 87) | C.J. Wilson | 88.78 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 88.10 | 1.4|PERCENT| | 89.35 | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| 91) | Josh Beckett | 92.81 | -3.0|PERCENT| | 90.00 | -3.5|PERCENT| | 86.86 | -6.4|PERCENT| |
| 92) | Tommy Hanson | 93.34 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 93.86 | 2.0|PERCENT| | 95.70 | 2.5|PERCENT| |
| 94) | Michael Pineda | 95.67 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 95.15 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 95.96 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| 96) | Josh Johnson | 97.43 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 96.78 | 2.8|PERCENT| | 99.50 | 2.1|PERCENT| |
| 100) | Matt Moore | 101.26 | 1.8|PERCENT| | 103.06 | 6.6|PERCENT| | 109.85 | 8.5|PERCENT| |
| 102) | Adam Wainwright | 103.36 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 101.73 | 2.6|PERCENT| | 104.36 | 1.0|PERCENT| |
| 107) | Gio Gonzalez | 105.66 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 106.68 | 2.7|PERCENT| | 109.55 | 3.7|PERCENT| |
| 111) | Matt Garza | 112.52 | -2.5|PERCENT| | 109.74 | -4.2|PERCENT| | 105.08 | -6.6|PERCENT| |
| 113) | Johnny Cueto | 115.47 | -2.0|PERCENT| | 113.14 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 111.75 | -3.2|PERCENT| |
| 114) | Brandon Beachy | 116.62 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 116.10 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 115.66 | -0.8|PERCENT| |
| 115) | Jordan Zimmerman | 120.51 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 121.95 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 124.89 | 3.6|PERCENT| |
| 118) | Yu Darvish | 121.05 | 5.4|PERCENT| | 127.57 | 2.7|PERCENT| | 131.05 | 8.3|PERCENT| |
| 122) | Chris Carpenter | 123.90 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 124.42 | 3.9|PERCENT| | 129.23 | 4.3|PERCENT| |
| 126) | Jeremy Hellickson | 127.14 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 128.83 | 4.8|PERCENT| | 134.96 | 6.2|PERCENT| |
| 130) | Anibal Sanchez | 132.22 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 133.22 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 136.41 | 3.2|PERCENT| |
| 136) | Tim Hudson | 137.83 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 137.09 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 136.89 | -0.7|PERCENT| |
| 137) | Cory Luebke | 140.21 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 139.25 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 140.23 | 0.0|PERCENT| |
| 144) | Shaun Marcum | 146.92 | 1.4|PERCENT| | 148.93 | 4.2|PERCENT| | 155.20 | 5.6|PERCENT| |
| 149) | Ervin Santana | 150.49 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 151.55 | 2.7|PERCENT| | 155.70 | 3.5|PERCENT| |
| 151) | Max Scherzer | 153.41 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 153.67 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 153.20 | -0.1|PERCENT| |
| 152) | Ubaldo Jimenez | 154.29 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 154.60 | 2.1|PERCENT| | 157.82 | 2.3|PERCENT| |
| 163) | Derek Holland | 165.84 | -2.7|PERCENT| | 161.35 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 157.42 | -5.1|PERCENT| |
| 166) | Hiroki Kuroda | 170.46 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 169.76 | -1.4|PERCENT| | 167.36 | -1.8|PERCENT| |
| 171) | Wandy Rodriguez | 174.11 | -1.8|PERCENT| | 171.05 | -1.9|PERCENT| | 167.76 | -3.6|PERCENT| |
| 175) | Doug Fister | 177.71 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 176.40 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 177.38 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| 176) | Jaime Garcia | 178.17 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 176.60 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 172.84 | -3.0|PERCENT| |
| 178) | Trevor Cahill | 179.59 | -1.8|PERCENT| | 176.43 | -2.6|PERCENT| | 171.81 | -4.3|PERCENT| |
Justin Verlander not only seems to be holding on to that top spot, but he's actually the only starter in the top 10 that has seen an increase in his ADP over the past two weeks. He has shown ERA improvements over the last four seasons along with various improvements seen in some of his peripherals. While there is some possible regression expected from last year's 24-win, 2.40 ERA season, it is not enough to downgrade him in most people's eyes.
Surprisingly, the biggest decreases in ADP can be found in Roy Halladay (-12.7|PERCENT|), Clayton Kershaw (-18.2|PERCENT|), Cole Hamels (-14.7|PERCENT|), and David Price (-10.2|PERCENT|). All of them are still to be considered elite starters, but it seems that more people prefer to grab key offensive players first while building fantasy rotations from more mid-level starters later on. The demand for an ace is not what it used to be, so if you prefer to go pitching-heavy, you might see one of these guys as more of a bargain now. Save for Verlander, these other top 10 pitchers are being pushed out of the first round and are being considered more mid to late second rounders.
Another interesting surprise is that Mat Latos has seen hardly any fluctuation in his ADP even with the move form pitcher-friendly Petco to one of the most hitter-friendly parks in Great American. His career GB/FB is at 1.03 and he saw a downturn in K/9. If his FB|PERCENT| stays the same, you're easily looking at an increase in his HR/FB ratio which will subsequently drive his ERA up.
It would have been nice if people fixated on Zack Greinke's ERA increase and his decrease in K/9 from last year, but the 5.4|PERCENT| increase in his ADP indicates that more people are recalling his monster second half and the fact that his first half was marred by a spring training rib injury. If the trends continue in the direction they are headed, there is a distinct possibility that he moves into the top 10.
If you consider the average league consists of 12 teams, then look for your first big pitching run around the late 6th/early 7th round when the top 20 come off the board. Once you reach pick 85, seven of the next 10 picks are all starters. Sure, there are a few mini-runs before that, but that seems to be the first big one. From there, you'll also see a similar one just past the top 100 overall.
Yu Darvish continues to climb up the ADP charts now that he is officially a member of the Texas Rangers. With more and more projections coming out and other groups doing some crowd-sourcing to garner additional expectations, Darvish is being projected as a starter similar to last season's Hamels, Jon Lester, and Madison Bumgarner with 14 wins, 174 Ks and a 3.21 ERA. If those numbers are truly the expectations, then you'll probably start seeing Darvish's ADP trend upwards sooner than later.
On a personal note, I'm a bit torn as to whether or not Trevor Cahill is right where he belongs as #178 or if he is a steal that far down. He's moving to the NL this year, is a strong ground ball pitcher, so the dimensions of Chase Field aren't a heavy concern and Arizona's defense appears to be stronger than that of the A's. His increased walk rate hurt his K/BB ratio last season, but he also had a fairly high (well, high for him) BABIP which never makes things easy. If he's being treated as a 14th or 15th round pick right now and trending downwards, then I would definitely take the chance on him.
Other Starting Pitcher ADP Trends to Watch
Jeff Niemann, TB (+13.6|PERCENT|) – Most projections have him improving on his K/9 and ERA this season despite the fact that he, technically, might still be fighting for a rotation spot this spring. The 4th and 5th slots in the Rays rotation are open to Niemann, Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis. Though there are rumors that the team is shopping Davis around the league, the expectations are that Hellickson and Niemann will land the roles. If that's the way it pans out, then Niemann could be a very nice late round gem to tuck in the back of your rotation.
Rick Porcello, DET (+16.7|PERCENT|) – While his stock seems to be rising, you might want to take a closer look into what the defense might do to a ground ball pitcher there. Miguel Cabrera at third is going to be a defensive liability which could hurt Porcello who owns a career 51.9 GB|PERCENT|. While others are helping him trend upwards based on what the offense could do for his win total, keep in mind that he could have an ERA significantly higher than his FIP.
Chris Capuano, LAD (+15.8|PERCENT|) – His first full year back in the majors after surgery looked pretty good if you look at his FIP (4.04) rather than his ERA (4.55) and take into account the increase in his K/9. Now, with the move to Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles, there's a chance that he can build on those improvements to his game. Take it with a grain of salt and don't let the upward trending of his ADP get to you. He is right where he should be right now.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire, FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].