As we get closer to the start of the NFL season, more and more draft results are coming in, giving us a much clearer picture as to where players are falling in line in NFL Standard snake drafts. Tracking ADP movement is a great resource for you, not just for developing your pre-draft strategy, but also for the in-draft adjustments that you should always be making as players start flying off the draft board. Here's a look at the top 12 risers and fallers in the ADP Rankings with some explanations for the movement, as well as thoughts on how these players will continue to trend.
Risers
Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
Roy Williams | WR | CHI | 89.89 | 44.1|PERCENT| | 129.50 | 38.3|PERCENT| | 179.04 | 99.2|PERCENT| |
Greg Olsen | TE | CAR | 122.65 | 33.7|PERCENT| | 164.02 | 26.6|PERCENT| | 207.62 | 69.3|PERCENT| |
Julio Jones | WR | ATL | 96.83 | 31.6|PERCENT| | 127.47 | 25.2|PERCENT| | 159.53 | 64.8|PERCENT| |
Tim Hightower | RB | WAS | 122.21 | 19.9|PERCENT| | 146.48 | 11.1|PERCENT| | 162.78 | 33.2|PERCENT| |
Plaxico Burress | WR | NYJ | 174.27 | 12.3|PERCENT| | 195.71 | 3.6|PERCENT| | 202.80 | 16.4|PERCENT| |
Ray Rice | RB | BAL | 8.47 | 10.3|PERCENT| | 9.34 | 4.3|PERCENT| | 9.74 | 15.0|PERCENT| |
Tavaris Jackson | QB | SEA | 182.20 | 6.0|PERCENT| | 193.17 | 7.8|PERCENT| | 208.20 | 14.3|PERCENT| |
Lance Moore | WR | NO | 162.12 | 9.1|PERCENT| | 176.80 | 4.5|PERCENT| | 184.73 | 13.9|PERCENT| |
Willis McGahee | RB | DEN | 181.62 | 9.5|PERCENT| | 198.93 | 3.2|PERCENT| | 205.32 | 13.0|PERCENT| |
Lee Evans | WR | BAL | 186.13 | 8.8|PERCENT| | 202.50 | 2.9|PERCENT| | 208.42 | 12.0|PERCENT| |
Daniel Thomas | RB | MIA | 75.69 | 4.4|PERCENT| | 78.99 | 6.3|PERCENT| | 84.00 | 11.0|PERCENT| |
Kyle Orton | QB | DEN | 189.16 | 6.7|PERCENT| | 201.85 | 3.3|PERCENT| | 208.58 | 10.3|PERCENT| |
Despite the fact that reports keep rolling in claiming that he is out of shape and falling out of favor with Bears receivers coach Darryl Drake, Roy Williams continues to ascend in the ADP Rankings. In fact, amidst a catchless preseason, there is still steady growth from week to week as he cracks the top 100 overall in NFL Standard drafts. If his struggles continue, you'll probably see his meteoric rise here level off while his competition, Johnny Knox starts to climb a little more.
As Cam Newton continues to get comfortable in the Carolina offense, Greg Olsen's stock is rising even higher. The rookie QB will certainly rely heavily on his tight end, especially while scrambling and looking for a relatively quick outlet. Olsen's pass-catching abilities are first rate and he should have himself a very productive season. Once the top 3 or 4 tight ends are off the board, Olsen should be a target of yours.
If you've been following these ADP trending articles, then Julio Jones is gradually becoming more of a household name in fantasy circles. Unfortunately, the Falcons wideout can no longer be considered a sleeper as he has cracked the top 100 overall.
Even with Ryan Torain making it back from a broken hand, Tim Hightower continues to ascend in the ADP Rankings. He has rushed for 126 yards and two touchdowns over the last two preseason games and is getting almost all of the first-team reps at practice.
With each and every practice Mark Sanchez and Plaxico Burress continue to build a rapport and his role in the Jets passing attack will be integral to the team's success. He and Santonio Holmes should have incredibly productive seasons.
Ray Ricehas started to climb in ADP a little more over the last week with a strong preseason. He remains the primary back, getting all of the goal-line work and continues to get more looks in the Ravens' passing attack as well.
The ascent of Tavaris Jackson may have slowed a bit in the last week, but he is still gaining in popularity in drafts. Once the top 15 QBs come off the board, Jackson is becoming a more favorable choice as a bye-week replacement. With a solid running game, receivers like Sidney Rice and Mike Williams, and a great pass-catching option at tight end like Zach Miller, Jackson could have a very strong year for himself.
Lance Moore continues to climb up the ADP Rankings with every rep he takes in place of the banged up Marques Colston. He and Drew Brees are building an even strong rapport than they've had and it's no secret that these two can be explosive together. Expect Moore to climb even higher with another strong preseason performance.
It was really just a matter of time before we saw Willis McGahee start to go higher in drafts. While Knowshon Moreno remains the primary running back in Denver, McGahee will undoubtedly begin to poach carries at the goal line, giving him a much greater value, especially in TD leagues.
If you thought Lee Evans looked good catching passes from Trent Edwards in Buffalo, just wait until he and Joe Flacco start connecting on a regular basis. Anquan Boldin is much more of a possession guy who can run well after the catch, but Evans has the breakaway speed and will be a favorite deep threat for Flacco this year.
Fewer people are being sold on Reggie Bush carrying the load in Miami which is increasing the expected value of Daniel Thomas who looks much better than Bush running between the tackles. Expect the two to eventually start splitting time with Thomas getting the looks near the goal line.
And finally, Kyle Orton continues to climb a little each week now that he's been named the official #1 QB for the Broncos.
Fallers
Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
Jerome Simpson | WR | CIN | 198.85 | -24.7|PERCENT| | 149.68 | -38.2|PERCENT| | 92.49 | -53.5|PERCENT| |
Toby Gerhart | RB | MIN | 203.71 | -19.2|PERCENT| | 164.65 | -24.7|PERCENT| | 123.99 | -39.1|PERCENT| |
Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | JAX | 7.73 | -8.5|PERCENT| | 7.07 | -3.1|PERCENT| | 6.85 | -11.4|PERCENT| |
Rashard Mendenhall | RB | PIT | 6.55 | -11.5|PERCENT| | 5.80 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 5.82 | -11.1|PERCENT| |
Michael Turner | RB | ATL | 10.09 | -8.7|PERCENT| | 9.21 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 8.99 | -10.9|PERCENT| |
Chris Johnson | RB | TEN | 3.60 | -7.5|PERCENT| | 3.33 | -2.7|PERCENT| | 3.24 | -10.0|PERCENT| |
Jonathan Stewart | RB | CAR | 38.78 | -7.1|PERCENT| | 36.02 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 35.73 | -7.9|PERCENT| |
Ryan Matthews | RB | SD | 33.11 | -6.6|PERCENT| | 30.94 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 30.58 | -7.6|PERCENT| |
Michael Vick | QB | PHI | 7.90 | -5.9|PERCENT| | 7.43 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 7.32 | -7.3|PERCENT| |
Peyton Manning | QB | IND | 28.96 | -5.1|PERCENT| | 27.48 | -2.2|PERCENT| | 26.88 | -7.2|PERCENT| |
Frank Gore | RB | SF | 16.82 | -6.1|PERCENT| | 15.80 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 15.65 | -7.0|PERCENT| |
Steven Smith | WR | PHI | 82.09 | -5.4|PERCENT| | 77.63 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 76.40 | -6.9|PERCENT| |
The important thing to note here is that, for the most part, a lot of the decreases in ADP are minimal and seem to be a result of just the personal preferences of fantasy GMs. Differences in trend less than 10|PERCENT| are fairly negligible as they really only translate into a pick or two as opposed to some of the other which could translate to a drop in round.
As for the more noticeable changes, Jerome Simpson and Toby Gerhart continue to drop steadily. Between the shaky quarterback situation in Cincinnati and A.J. Green coming back from injury, Simpson is rapidly losing value while Gerhart is being pushed out of third down situations by Lorenzo Booker and losing the opportunity for additional touches.
No real reason to be alarmed about the drops in ADP for Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashard Mendenhall and Michael Turner as that is more a result of Ray Rice's increase as explained above.
And then, of course, there's the 10|PERCENT| drop for Chris Johnson. There were high hopes for the hold-out to come to a close this past week, but it seems that Johnson and the Titans are pretty far apart in negotiations still. It's hard to recommend picking against him, but the longer this goes on, the more Rice is going third in drafts…
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Howard Bender has covering fantasy sports for more than 10 years on various websites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts, or comments you can email him at [email protected].