When it comes to fantasy football, everyone has their own particular draft strategy and style. If you like Roddy White more than Calvin Johnson, you're going to take him earlier, no matter what the pre-season rankings say. You can take the suggestions of a variety of experts, but when it comes right down to it, when you're in the war room on draft day and you're officially on the clock, no one is making that pick but you. However, part of your draft process is also to anticipate the moves of the other 9 to 11 knuckleheads sitting there at your draft. That way you can adjust your strategy on the fly like a good fantasy GM. And that's where ADP (Average Draft Position) comes in. While everyone may have their own individual game plan, chances are at least half of your competitors are following the same path as the rest of the fantasy world. Following the aggregate ADP rankings on a regular basis not only helps you see where the best place to draft a particular player may be, but also what the rest of the fantasy community is thinking about specific positions or individual players. In this regular piece, we will break down and analyze the ADP rankings, track each position and highlight those players who are moving up and down the leaderboards, and hopefully put you in a position to come out ahead of your competition at your draft.
Quarterbacks
Top 10
1. Michael Vick
2. Aaron Rogers
3. Drew Brees
4. Peyton Manning
5. Tom Brady
6. Phillip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Matt Schaub
10. Josh Freeman
Earliest Taken: #1 Latest Taken: #126
Most QBs Taken: Between #98 and #109 (6 out of 12 picks)
While there are certainly exceptions, most fantasy owners feel comfortable waiting until late in the second round or early in the third before they start thinking about a quarterback. The top five clear out somewhere around the 34th pick, but owners have a golden opportunity to still grab a top ten QB a number of rounds later. The tight run of QBs comes just after the top 10 are off the board. You've got owners in deeper leagues opting to wait for a Matt Ryan or an Eli Manning so they can bulk up elsewhere, owners who want to assure themselves of a pair of top 15 quarterbacks and play the match-ups, and of course, the owners who will hoard some of the talent with the hopes of cashing in on a mid-season trade. There are very few sleepers at the position that find success, so it makes sense to act early, relatively speaking. Somewhat surprising to see Josh Freeman lingering in the top 10 right now ahead of someone like Ryan, while it looks like no one is concerned about Peyton Manning's offseason neck surgery and expected lack of pre-season activity.
Low ADP Quarterbacks to Monitor: Mark Sanchez, Kevin Kolb, Matt Hasselbeck
Running Backs
Top 10
1. Arian Foster
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Chris Johnson
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Rashard Mendenhall
6. Maurice Jones-Drew
7. LeSean McCoy
8. Michael Turner
9. Ray Rice
10. Darren McFadden
Earliest Taken: #1 Latest Taken: #22
Most RBs taken: Between #1 and #12 (10 out of 12 picks)
Once again, your draft starts out with people glomming the running backs. Obviously it makes sense to pick up the guys who touch the ball the most, and a lead back that touches the ball 25-30 times a game is like fantasy gold. But what we're seeing a lot of lately is a number of NFL teams moving to a two-back system in an effort to keep their guys fresh and healthy. While that's great for the real world, it makes it much more difficult to build your fantasy roster. You used to be able to lock in two solid backs and then use a third for your flex position, but with fewer lead backs available, it becomes harder to build in that fashion. And, obviously, that is why they all come pouring off the board in the first round. You'll see another run around the 80th overall pick, but, for the most part, those are the complementary backs and may not hold as great a value. Everyone seems to be buying into Arian Foster's rookie season, but with a legitimate QB in Tennessee now, Chris Johnson could explode again. Conversely, watch out for Adrian Peterson who now has Donovan McNabb under center in Minnesota. His ADP could start to drop the more people realize that stacking the box and forcing McNabb to throw is going to be the way teams beat the Vikings.
Low ADP Running Backs to Monitor: Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower, Fred Jackson
Wide Receivers
Top 10
1. Roddy White
2. Andre Johnson
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Hakeem Nicks
5. Greg Jennings
6. Reggie Wayne
7. Larry Fitzgerald
8. Miles Austin
9. Dwayne Bowe
10. Mike Williams
Earliest Taken: #5 Latest Taken: #44
Most WRs Taken: Between #32 and #43 (8 out of 12 picks)
Obviously, the deepest position in fantasy football and one that comes with the greatest sink or swim potential. It's a lot easier for your number one wideout to be held without a catch or a touchdown than it is for your number one back to go without atleast collecting a few points based on yardage. The majority of the top 10 are off the board after the second round and if they haven't been scooped up then, they'll disappear in round three. The big run that you'll see comes right after the last of the top 10 are gone, when owners that don't end up with a premier receiver fall into a panic mode and start scooping up wideouts at a rapid rate. You'll also see another run right around where you see the complementary backs start going and people are looking to fill in their extra WR slots and flex position. Those that have already drafted seem to have consistent faith in the Tampa Bay regime with Mike Williams sitting in the top 10 along with his aforementioned quarterback ahead of receivers like DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson, while some seem to be hanging on to an aging Reggie Wayne a little too much right now despite the happenings in Indy.
Low ADP Wide Receivers to Monitor: Michael Crabtree, Plaxico Burress, Kenny Britt
Tight Ends
Top 10
1. Jason Witten
2. Antonio Gates
3. Vernon Davis
4. Dallas Clark
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Jimmy Graham
7. Tony Gonzalez
8. Brandon Pettigrew
9. Marcedes Lewis
10. Dustin Keller
Earliest Taken: #33 Latest Taken: ND (Not Drafted)
Most TEs Taken: Between #113 and #124 (4 out of 12)
There seem to be two schools of thought when it comes to the tight end position. Some people will invest in a top flight tight end early on with the hopes that he will produce just like a wide receiver and others consider the position a throw-away. It all comes down to targets, red zone targets more specifically. The top ten will be scattered within rounds five through eight with the remaining ones coming as filler in later rounds. The big run, if you can call it that, comes during the latter part of the top 10 coming off the board and owners start to worry about the position. The overall rankings and ADP haven't changed much from year to year at the position as stalwarts like Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark and even Tony Gonzalez remain high on the target list for their respective teams. Jimmy Graham makes for an interesting pick and could even be top five by year end. A converted basketball player (similar to Gates), he could be a huge red zone target for Drew Brees this season.
Low ADP TEs to Monitor: Kevin Boss, Tony Moeaki