Ah keepers and sleepers… my two favorite words in the fantasy football dictionary. When I first got into fantasy football I immediately became enamored with finding the next guy. So since I've already covered my top keepers, it's time to start considering the best sleepers for next season. In a series over the next week I'll look at 7 categories of sleepers, starting today with the best of the bunch.
But first here's a relevant lesson/story about sleepers.
I learned a crucial lesson about sleepers last year that I had yet to consider. And that plays into my numerous categories. I'll call my lesson the "Arian Foster Principle". It didn't dawn on me how much I wanted Arian Foster until after my leagues had drafted, but before his week one explosion. I realized how good he could be late in the preseason and couldn't forgive myself all season for not spotting him earlier.
In the 2009 offseason I saw that the Texans signed two undrafted rookie backs, Jeremiah Johnson and some guy named Arian Foster, so I checked them out. I recognized that either could become a fantasy factor because Houston had little behind Steve Slaton and they had the powerful offense and right system for RBs to excel. But I became engrossed with Johnson. In part because I loved Slaton after his rookie year and I read that JJ was a Steve Slaton Lite. And his highlight reels from Oregon showed the exceptional speed and cutback ability that warranted the comparison. I pegged him as a top sleeper until he separated his shoulder in August and went on IR for the year. I then ignored that backfield since my guy wasn't going to happen.
I learned that you can't put up blinders. There are too many variables that go into a relative unknown becoming a breakout success, so you can't pick and choose just so you can say "I called that guy." You have to watch everyone with equal vigilance. That's the "Arian Foster Principle". That's why the following will most likely include a lot of guys you've either never heard of, forgot about or who won't ever amount to anything in the NFL. But they're here so that you can be the one to steal them in the late rounds of your drafts or snatch them off free agency in case they go off on the league like Foster or Miles Austin or Ryan Grant circa '07.
Two quick notes before we get to the players:
1. I don't consider rookies to be sleepers unless they were selected in the 5th round or later or went undrafted. Rooks taken earlier all go into camp battling for starting spots and should be seen coming by anyone running a fantasy team.
2. The majority of these guys are undraftable at present, and should only be considered as in-season pick-ups if they get their shot.
Now finally, let's dive into the first category of the week:
The Flashers – the guys you should spend a late depth/flier pick on, they have shown flashes of their ability at the pro level and could make major strides next year if given the chance.
- Mike Goodson, RB, Carolina Panthers (5-10, 208 ; age 23)
It can be argued that Goodson broke out last year and is no longer a sleeper. With over 750 yards of total offense and 3 scores in '10, he showed big play ability with his slashing style of running and excellent speed. Given the strong chance that DeAngelo Williams finds a new home next year, Goodson is one Jonathan Stewart injury away from being a top-20 back. Even with a healthy Stewart this could be a time-share that lets Goodson have some big weeks. He should be drafted accordingly for the quality depth.
- Jacoby Ford, WR, Oakland Raiders (5-10, 185 ; age 23)
This diminutive speedster may be the fastest player in the NFL, having run a blazing 4.26 40 at the 2010 combine. This speed translated to numerous explosive plays on the field during his rookie year, including a Raiders franchise record 3 kickoff return TD's, an impressive 18.8-yard per catch average and 2 rushing scores. Simply put, the man is a weapon. If he can develop into a better route-runner and if Jason Campbell can provide more consistent QB play, Ford could be the next in a line of emerging second-year speed receivers, led by DeSean Jackson and Mike Wallace. Draft him accordingly for the tremendous upside.
- Danario Alexander, WR, St. Louis Rams (6-5, 215 ; age 22)
A history of knee injuries during his career at Missouri caused Alexander to fall out of the 2010 draft despite being a monster target that put up monster numbers as a senior. A long strider who can get deep and runs well after the catch, he emerged in his first NFL game (4 grabs for 72 yards & a touch) as a threat to be the #1 WR in St. Louis. While he only put up 300 yards and 1 score last year, he should be primed to make a major leap in a pass-happy Josh McDaniels offense. The Rams did draft two quality receivers, but both are more possession guys. Perhaps they already believe Alexander is the #1 they need for Sam Bradford? That definitely makes him worth a flier pick.
- Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (6-2, 199 ; age 25)
An '08 2nd rounder, Simpson took 2 years and 14 games to finally show up. But he did it in a big way with 18 catches for 247 yards and 3 scores in the final 2 games of the season. His '10 finish was reminiscent of Devin Aromashodu's strong close to the '09 season and like D.A. he gets a new offensive coordinator the following year. That didn't work out so hot for Aromashodu, and Simpson will also have to deal with an incoming #1 WR in A.J. Green and have to develop chemistry with new QB Andy Dalton. While his upside could make him the #2 in his offense, the obstacles and depth in Cinci could also make him no better than the 4th receiving option, so be sure to not overspend for this trendy sleeper pick. But for the right value he's definitely worth a gamble.
- Rashad Jennings, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (6-1, 231 ; age 26)
Maurice Jones-Drew has had almost 1,500 touches heaped on his Mighty Mouse shoulders in a 5 year career, and while he's only 26, he's coming off his first major surgery (knee). Jack Del Rio was the coach that began a time-share between MoJo and Fred Taylor at the start of MJD's career, in part to prolong Taylor's career, but also because both had major talent. Jennings showed his ability last year in a 109-yard, 5-carry game against Oakland that included a 74-yard scoring jaunt. He's got more size than Jones-Drew and has good speed to go between or outside the tackles. Don't be surprised if this backfield becomes a timeshare again in the not-so-distant future, meaning no MJD owner can ignore Jennings on draft day.
- Ben Obomanu, WR, Seattle Seahawks (6-1, 205 ; age 27)
In the second half of the 2010 season Obomanu moved into a starting role and showed flashes of his tremendous athleticism and big-play ability. The highlight of his season was a 159-yard outburst in week 12 that included an 87-yard TD. With that strong finish to the season, Obomanu put himself in position to compete with Golden Tate for the play-making role opposite #1 possession receiver Mike Williams. If he can even share the playing time with Tate, he has the strong hands, size and athleticism to potentially double the 500 yards and 4 scores he had last year. Keep an eye on him if the QB situation in Seattle is in good shape.
- Tashard Choice, RB, Dallas Cowboys (5-10, 215 ; age 26)
Choice will be on this list until he either fizzles out into nothing, emerges from a crowded Cowboys backfield or takes over for another team. He's flashed his skill all 3 of his seasons but has yet to get enough chances to really produce. That very well could be the case again next season, but he's still worth a shot as a late flier pick. Barber should be out in big D, and although they drafted the versatile DeMarco Murray, the ball should still be primarily shared between Choice and Felix Jones. Choice has quick feet, good explosion through the hole and runs bigger than his size. He's just one Jones injury away from stardom.
- David Nelson, WR, Buffalo Bills (6-5, 220 ; age 24)
Nelson was a highly underwhelming product during his days as a Florida Gator and thus went undrafted last year despite having excellent size and good speed. But Buffalo recognized that his talent was simply underutilized in the Gators' run-based spread attack and signed him as a free agent. He had some nice moments as a rookie, including a late season streak of 3 games with a TD grab. With Lee Evans fading fast in Buffalo and the emergence of Ryan Fitzpatrick as a talented passer, Nelson could be primed to moved into the #2 role opposite Steve Johnson and could use his size to be a strong redzone weapon. A good offseason would make him worth a flier pick.
- Arrelious Benn, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, (6-1, 219 ; age 22)
If he can come back quickly from a torn ACL that ended his rookie season in week 16, this elite athlete can use his size and speed combo to build on a first year that finished with strong promise before the injury. An explosive playmaker, Benn should be the #2 receiving option to Mike Williams once he gets back to speed and should be the deep threat needed in a Bucs' offense with huge potential. With Josh Freeman's cannon arm Benn could be good for numerous big plays and a nice boost to his 400 yards and 2 scores. He may not be worth drafting because of the injury, but monitor him closely leading up to drafts/week 1 of the season. He will definitely be worth owning at some point in '11.
- Matt Flynn, QB, Green Bay Packers (6-2, 231 ; age 25)
He's not draft-worthy unless the Pack trade him preseason to someone looking for a QB like Arizona, Seattle or San Fran, but after a remarkable performance in his first start last year in absence of Aaron Rodgers, Flynn definitely demands attention in 2011. He stepped in as calmly and coolly as anyone possibly could in replacing a superstar quarterback in a game that nearly had the entire season riding on it and only threw for 250 yards and 3 TD's. On the road. Against the best team in the league. Nothing more needs to be said about his potential. Green Bay will be greatly pressured to trade him at some point in the season so as to not lose him for nothing to free agency. If Rodgers goes down or Flynn lands in a new home, add him and add him fast.