Week 4 Observations

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Published on October 5, 2009

We already had the Giants Steve Smith in the top 20, but is he really a top-five receiver going forward? I'd say no and put him in the latter half of the top-10 because rarely does a receiver with his physical skill set (excellent route-running/hands, decent speed, average size) put up huge numbers all year. The exceptions are receivers who play with Peyton Manning, receivers who played in the Greatest Show on Turf and Jerry Rice while playing with Joe Montana and Steve Young (though Rice was probably a little faster). If Eli Manning plays at this level all year, and the Giants throw the ball all year, Smith can be top five. But top 10, i.e., Derrick Mason in his best seasons, is probably more realistic. And not a bad thing by any means.

Hakeem Nicks took a screen pass 54 yards for a touchdown, while Mario Manningham caught just one of seven targets and had two drops. Manningham's still the starter, but Nicks, who also made several huge plays in the preseason, could push him. The idea that the Giants should trade for Braylon Edwards (first rounder plus extension and big signing bonus) or even Anquan Boldin (similar), is laughable with 20/20 hindsight. At this point, doubting Giants GM Jerry Reese is like doubting Warren Buffett - almost always wrong.

Who would have thought that the Week 1 Denver/Cincy game was a battle of teams that wouldn't lose to anyone else through four weeks? And Cincy played in Green Bay and beat Pittsburgh, so it's not like they had an easy schedule. In fact, if you include Denver, who they should have beaten, their toughest game might have been at Cleveland in which they needed a 75-yard fumble return for a touchdown.

As Scott Pianowski pointed out in yesterday's Live Blog, all three teams (Chiefs, Bucs, Bills) that fired their offensive coordinators a week before the season are winless except against each other - the Bills are the only one with a win, and they beat the Bucs. In the Chiefs defense, they've played @BAL, @PHI and vs. NYG, but they still lost to Oakland at home.

Does anyone else think David Carr, Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Jeff Garcia, A.J. Feeley, Gus Frerotte, Sage Rosenfels, Tarvaris Jackson, Michael Vick, Daunte Culpepper or Antwaan Randle El would be a substantial upgrade to JaMarcus Russell? I know the Raiders aren't playoff bound, but at some point, don't you need to have some basic minimum competence (and from this list other than Randle El, the emphasis is on |STAR|minimum|STAR|), not to lose the rest of the team and its fan base? Russell's on a pace for 4 TD, 16 INT and a 4.7 YPA, despite playing the Chargers, Chiefs and Texans already.

The Jets defense rose to the occasion once again in New Orleans, holding the Saints offense to 10 points and Drew Brees to 5.9 YPA. But neither unit was tested that much as Mark Sanchez coughed up 14 points worth of turnovers, and the scope of the game changed significantly, i.e., Brees didn't need to press the action nearly as much. The Jets will face Chad Henne twice, Trent Edwards and JaMarcus Russell in their next four games, but still have Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning in Indy left on the schedule.

If other teams copy the Jets and Bills, both of which limited Drew Brees to 5.9 YPA, Pierre Thomas might be the top fantasy back in the league going forward with massive holes through which to run almost every time he touches the ball. The Jets did a far better job of limiting his impact, but he still had 132 total yards and a TD.

Could the Broncos, Saints and 49ers have three of the top five defenses in the NFL this year?

Although I'm a Giants fan and think that when their defense finally gets fully healthy, they could be the best team in the NFL, so far the Colts have impressed me the most. Remember that Peyton Manning was still recovering from knee surgery for much of last year, and he had to make due with a constantly banged-up Joseph Addai, the ineffective Dominic Rhodes and an over-the-hill Marvin Harrison. This year, Manning's healthy, Addai's healthy, and Pierre Garcon and Donald Brown give the offense a new dimension. It looks far too easy, and I don't think teams like Pittsburgh, Baltimore or the Jets will be able to stop them very often. (They play @BAL and vs. the Jets, but miss the Steelers).

Rashard Mendenhall is a monster, and I can't see Willie Parker being more than a change-of-pace guy ever again. Mendenhall is big, strong, fast, able to make decisive cuts and get outside. He also destroyed a rushing Chargers defender with a block on Sunday. The time to trade for or pick up Mendenhall was last week, or even three weeks ago, as people will go all in to roster him now, and you probably can't trade for him. You always need to be a week or two ahead - to that end, pick up players like Shonn Greene, Matt Leinart and Hakeem Nicks before they have a chance to break out.

Antonio Gates looks completely healthy, and it wouldn't surprise me if he had his best season ever. Tight end is deep this year, so it might have seemed like a mistake to have used an early pick on him, but after Sunday's game, it's a bit easier to remember what you were thinking on draft day.

Might Brandon Marshall be a better and more efficient receiver this year with Kyle Orton than in previous years with Jay Cutler? A QB with Cutler's arm can go to any receiver because he can get the ball to him even if he's barely open. But one with Orton's might need to rely more heavily on Marshall's unique skills. As a result, maybe Marshall gets more balls where he can use his size advantage and less strikes that could just as well be thrown to Eddie Royal. Of course, Marshall was the most heavily targeted receiver in the league last year, but he averaged only 12.2 yards per catch. So far this year he's at 13.7. With Denver playing better defense and drafting Knowshon Moreno, there will be far less targets to go around, but Marshall could match last year's fantasy production on 80 percent of the opportunities.