Mama Bonifacio isn't going to be happy to hear this, but her boy Emilio will not hit 162 hrs and steal 486 bags. But acting fast on your wire is KEY. If you were in a standard 12-team mixed league last year and you were willing to take a few fliers on some guys who probably weren't going to keep it up, you could have ended up with: Nate McClouth, Carlos Quentin, Jorge Cantu or Cliff Lee.
Not a bad grab off the wire, aye?
After one day of action I'm willing to put my neck out on the line and tell you who is for real and who's not. I do this for you.
There are three types. Fo'Reals. Wait and Sees and Sheltonian, dubbed after Chris Shelton who put together one of the most impressive starts in recent memory to a season only to end the season in the minors.
Wait And Sees
Hank Blalock - Remember when he had 25 hrs or more between 2003 - 2005? Yes, he used to be quite good. Last year, in the limited time he played, his SLG was actually better than it was in two of the three years in the that stretch (.508 vs .522, .500 & .431). And in his even more abbreviated 2007, his SLG was .543.
Jeff Francoeur - As much as I want to jump on this band wagon, as I waved his flag in the preseason, I'm gonna temper my expectations for the time being. The lead off HR and then monster foul ball were great to see. He changed his approach at the plate, focusing both of his crazy eyes on the pitcher and shifting his weight to a more balanced stance. If this helps him take a walk and cut down on strikeouts then you have yourself a winner.
Sheltonian
Tony (The Tiger) Clark - A.) He's not going to play everyday. B.) it's feast or famine when he does. C.) he's 36.
Emilio Bonifacio - The stat line says 1 HR, 3 SB. Only half of that is important, that's the SBs. The homerun was an inside the parker. If he runs, which it looks like he has the green light to do, he could be valuable in a deeper league or NL-only set up.
Kevin Millwood - This dude will drive you nuts. He puts up great outings then gets whacked each year and the end result is never anything you want to be involved in. In '08 he started the season with a three-game stretch that amassed 3 ER in 21 innings. Fast forward two starts and he put up a three-game skid of 15.1 innings and 17 ER.
Fo' Reals
Adam Lind - When he came up analysts drooled, and so should they have he was the No. 39 prospect in baseball in 2007 and No. 1 in the Toronto system. After some decent, but nothing special years, the 25-year-old Lind opened the season up with a long ball and 6 RBI. Write him in for 20-25 this year.
Adam Jones - The O's outfielder is a top prospect. 2008 was a little rocky, but that's not unusual for a 23-year old rising star. He was the main piece in the Eric Bedard trade and rightfully the Baseball wizzes at USSMariner.com were furious when management let him go.
Felipe Lopez - Ok, so the power isn't going to stay that high, but can you get 15-20 hrs in that ball park? Maybe. That's quite the steal in leagues where he's sitting around. In 2005 he had 23 bombs (in another hitter friendly environment), which was certainly an outlier with his isolate power and HR/FB |PERCENT| being way above his season norms. But with 2 hrs already in the bag, getting 13-18 more could happen. Either way, he's a great grab as he'll contribute in steals too.