Hoops Lab: Digging Yourself Out of the Basement Part 2

Catching Up Part II: H2H Leagues

I was on Twitter the other day (@ProfessorDrz), and one Tweet had the headline "The Real NBA Season Begins after Christmas." I clicked on the story for a minute, and it was about how long the NBA season is and how the first couple of months were preliminary events and most of the action was yet to come.

I hope that the writer of the article is right, especially this year on the fantasy basketball front. For those that play fantasy football, maybe you can relate to the sentiment. Despite basketball being (by far) my favorite sport, the fact that fantasy basketball begins right around the time that my fantasy football teams are entering the money stretch of the season has always made it hard for me to fully switch gears before the season ends.

Actually, let me digress for a moment and take it even further.

Did you know that since I became "The Professor" and started writing for RotoWire, my own fantasy basketball teams have gotten worse? It's kind of counterintuitive, because I thought that once I started writing for a fantasy sports site that would only make my teams better. After all, I would be right up-to-the-minute on the latest news, I'd be perfecting techniques, and I'd be doing all of the projections. All of that would have to add up to better teams, right?

Actually, wrong. At least in my case. Because the two most important "techniques" for managing fantasy teams are the two things that writing about fantasy takes away: time and energy. So while I may know the tricks and write about them, I rarely have the time and energy to use them on my own teams. If I see that a player is hurt and/or that their replacement is balling, my first response now is to make note of it for an article or perhaps to Tweet about it. But my reaction is hardly ever to make the change on my own teams. Then, there's the fun of the rest of the league using my own published projections to steal all of my sleepers away from me. All in all, it's a funny dynamic.

I went through that aside because, this year, I doubled-down on the fantasy writing for the first couple of months of the NBA season. In addition to the usual basketball writing and my own fantasy football teams, this year I also wrote about the NFL, specifically the AFC North. I was driving my wife crazy, because on Sunday I was watching the games all day, on Monday after work I was watching MNF and writing, on Tuesday I watched the NBA and did the podcast with Kyle, then Wed and Thursday I'd be watching the NBA and writing (or podcasting with CLNS). My wife started walking around grumbling under her breath, threatening to cut off both the NFL Sunday Ticket and the NBA League Pass if I didn't start doing some extra Honey-Do work to make up for all of the sports. Which of course took even more time/energy away from my poor basketball teams.

So, what's the moral to this (long) sob story? My fantasy basketball teams SUCK right now. All of them. They're all pretty much where they were after the draft. I haven't made any trades. I've hardly picked up any free agents. In some of my leagues, I wasn't even setting my lineups for weeks at a time. I even had one league commissioner e-mail me to ask me to start setting my lineup so the rest of the league couldn't get easy wins. Yeah, I was that guy. In short, I've been a BAD owner this year.

The good news? It's not too late. I don't know if the real season really does begin at Christmas, but most of my leagues are head-to-head, which means that I can still get back into it. In my last Hoops Lab, I broke down some steps about how to make up ground in a roto league if you find yourself in the basement two months in. Thankfully, I'm only in one (serious) roto league, though, so I'll only have to apply those tricks to one league. In head-to-head leagues, it's a bit different, as even two months into the season, all I have to do is get my team good enough to win starting now, and I have a good chance to be good by playoffs time. In H2H, I don't have to try to turn a ship around, all I have to do is get my ship to move forward. How?

Well, as I said above, the most important thing for managing my teams (especially in daily leagues) is time and attention. I drafted well, which means there's talent there, it just needs to be managed. For me, I'm starting with one of the most remedial tricks for team management (in daily leagues) that there is: on Monday morning, I'm going through and setting my starting lineup for the next seven days. It sounds two-year-old basic, but it can definitely help. Last week, I won both of my daily transaction Yahoo H2Hs specifically because I did this. I never had the time to go back and mess with either team for the rest of the week, but just by setting them in advance, my teams were able to claim victory. One note with this: in most leagues, if you do any add/drop or trade transactions after setting your lineup, you have to re-set the lineup for any day after that.

Step two: get to know your team and your league. The way that I know that I'm really into a league is that if you asked me I could not only name all the players on my team, but I could also give a decent rundown on the strengths and weaknesses of the other main teams in the league. Knowing the league is important when you start thinking about trades, but knowing your own team is absolutely vital. One quick way to get an overview on the personality of your team (especially in Yahoo! H2H category-based leagues) is to look at the "Team Stats" link. It goes category by category, and tells you what your record is in an individual category. For example, through nine games so far, one of my teams is 1–8 in free throw percentage, but 5–4 in rebounds, 4–5 in field goal percentage, and 3–6 in blocks. So, what does that tell me? It tells me that my team is about average in the big man categories, but terrible in free throws. Since this is a H2H league, I might just go ahead and punt free throws (since I'm not winning anyway) and try to trade for one of the bigs that are allergic to made free throws (e.g. DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard) and see if I can make an average area of my team into a dominant strength while only sacrificing something that I suck at anyway.

Step three amplifies something that I wrote last paragraph. In H2H leagues, unlike roto leagues, you can afford to punt a category or two and still win the whole league. In category H2H leagues, you usually only have to win five categories to win the week. I've seen this strategy used more than once to turn an average team into a playoff juggernaut, because it is especially effective in the postseason. Let's say that your team is fairly solid on the perimeter but piss-poor down low. If you looked at those Team Stats I mentioned above, you might be 6–3 or 5–4 in assists, steals, 3-pointers and FT percentage but 2–7 or worse in blocks, rebounds and FG%. Instead of trying to balance out your team the way you would in roto leagues, instead, you could go all-in on the perimeter. Trade your 1 or 2 good big men for your Kemba Walker or Ty Lawson types. Maybe even target a Jamal Crawford or, gasp, Kobe Bryant. See if you can make those assists, steals, 3-pointers and FT percentage into unbeatable categories and then add a fifth (most likely scoring) and you've got a great shot to win most weeks. Now of course, I have to give you the opposite side of things as well. This is a desperation strategy, because there's no safety net. If you don't win one of your 5 must-have categories, your team is probably toast. Plus, you can't really make up much ground in the standings because you aren't going to get many 7–2 or 8–1 wins with a team like this. Going 5–4 every week is about the best that you can hope for. But in the right situation…that can be enough to win a title.

Step four is going to be the same thing that I said in the rotisserie catch-up article, and it ties back in with step one: put some time and energy into winning the race to the good free agents in your league. In the roto article, I suggested staying up late to listen to the RotoWire Fantasy Basketball Podcast on a nightly basis, and that's still good advice. But if you don't have time for that, you could at least click on the 'Injury Updates' regularly. Or, in Yahoo, under the "Research" tab, go to "Transaction Trends" and you can at least see what players are the most added and/or dropped on a given day. If you do it that way, you may not be on the absolute cutting edge of the daily add/drop race, but it'll keep you in the loop, and if you're in a league with FAAB, then you'll get insight into who to target that week.

In the three H2H leagues that I care the most about this year, I am currently 3–6, 4–5, and 27-53-1 (Yahoo category H2H, 9th place out of 10 teams). But I'm going to say that the real season DOES begin after Christmas, so I'm going to bet that I win at least one of those leagues using some of the methods I mentioned above. I'll let you guys know in my annual "accountability" article at the end of the year whether I was able to do that or not.

Around the League

LeBron's sore knee and Cavs injury woes:LeBron James sat out Tuesday's loss because of a sore left knee. It is speculated that the injury may have occurred on Christmas Day in the game against the Heat, when he jumped over some seats while trying to save a ball and limped back onto the court. He is considered day-to-day, so it is possible that he could return as soon as Wednesday. The Cavs have been beset by injuries over the last week. Starting center Anderson Varejao was lost to season-ending Achilles surgery; Kyrie Irving missed two games because of a bruise on his left knee (though he was able to return on Tuesday with a big game); James and Shawn Marion (sore left ankle) missed Tuesday; and Kevin Love (back spasms) were forced out of the game on Tuesday. All of these injuries would seemingly provide more opportunity for some players to step up, such as Dion Waiters or maybe Mike Miller, but for now, the whole team is kind of a mess. Tristan Thompson has been the only bright spot, averaging 15 points with 12.3 rebounds over his last three games.

Durant's sore ankle:Kevin Durant will reportedly return from his ankle injury on Wednesday. He missed the previous six games, which allowed Russell Westbrook to go nuts (30.6 points, 8.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds and 3.0 steals over the last two weeks) and gave more opportunity for players like Reggie Jackson to have larger offensive roles as well. With Durant's return, the Thunder offense returns to its duo-centric routes, though players like Jackson will still sometimes have solid games and big men like Steven Adams will still have the opportunity to produce solidly outside of scoring.

Melo's sore knee:Carmelo Anthony has been battling a sore knee for most of the season and playing through it. He has played solidly, though not quite up to his usual standards. But on Sunday, he had to sit out of the second half against Portland after he started visibly limping in the second quarter. He is considered probable to return on Wednesday, but this is an on-going issue and matter of concern for Melo owners.

Jefferson's groin:Al Jefferson will miss at least the next four weeks with a groin injury. In his absence, Cody Zeller will be called upon to really step up. He played 32 minutes on Monday, but only responded with six points and five rebounds (though he did produce an excellent three steals and two blocks). Bismack Biyombo could also see a larger role in the interim.

Randolph's knee:Zach Randolph has missed five straight games with a knee injury, but he has been participating in shootarounds and is still considered day-to-day as opposed to week-to-week. In his absence, players like Jon Leuer and Kosta Koufos have been seeing extra minutes.

Highest priced bench ever (Williams, Lopez): There is an interesting phenomenon going on in Brooklyn. Presumed franchise players Brook Lopez and Deron Williams went down (again) to injury. That's not the surprising part. But in their absence, youngster Miles Plumlee and veteran Jarrett Jack went nuts and led the team to one of their more successful stretches of the season. Now Lopez and Williams are both back and playing, but Plumlee and Jack have played so well that Lopez and Williams have been relegated to coming off the bench. Presumably, Williams will regain his job in the short-term, but there is a groundswell for Plumlee to hold onto the starting job. He is younger, has good upside, earned a spot on Team USA last summer, and is a better defensive and rebounding big than Lopez ever was. On the flip side, Lopez started on Tuesday night in place of Kevin Garnett (rest) and responded with a monster 29-point effort on 13-for-21 shooting with five boards and two steals in a win over the Bulls, so he's also making his bid to get more playing time.

New Additions

Jarrett Jack (40% owned in Yahoo! leagues):Jarrett Jack is interesting, because he's more of a speculative pick-up. He replaced Deron Williams in the starting lineup when Williams was hurt last week and played extremely well. Williams is back now, but he's still recovering, and because Jack has played so well, he has (as of this writing) remained in the starting lineup. Presumably, though, Williams will take his job back sooner rather than later and push Jack back into his bench role. The reason that I still have Jack here, though, is that he has played well enough that it might tip the Nets' deliberations on whether or not to trade Williams and what they would require back. I'm mainly only picking up Jack for the short-term for as long as he's starting, but I will keep an eye on him even after Williams takes the job back because he is an injury or a trade away from putting up startable numbers once again.

Tyler Zeller (35% owned): Zeller had a bad game in his last outing, but before that, he averaged 13.7 points, 7.0 boards, 1.2 blocks and 62.8% shooting from the floor in his previous 10 games since moving into the starting lineup.

Rudy Gobert (33% owned): Gobert is a speculative pick-up, because right now he is stuck as a back-up in Utah behind Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors. But a few thoughts: 1) As I've written about before, Gobert was (by far) the most impressive player that I saw in Las Vegas this summer which put him on my radar in the first place. 2) When Favors or Kanter have gone down this year, Gobert has immediately become a nightly double-double threat with excellent blocks and even solid steals. Even in 20 minutes per game, he is a strong shot-blocking roleplayer, and when you factor in his upside, he should be owned in more than 1/3 of the leagues.

Alex Len (27% owned): Len had a bit of a dud game on Tuesday, scoring only four points with six boards in 20 minutes of action. But on the whole, he's been very solid since being named the starting center in Phoenix. In eight games as a starter this year, he is averaging 8.4 points with 7.3 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 0.8 steals while shooting 57.1% from the field.

Ed Davis (26% owned): Davis broke his nose on Tuesday night, so keep an eye on whether or not he will have to miss time and/or whether the mask that he'll inevitably have to wear affects his play. However, he had been very solid before that with averages of 11.9 points, 8.0 boards, and 1.6 blocks while shooting 68.1% from the field in the last two weeks as he has settled in as the starting power forward for the Lakers in place of Carlos Boozer.

John Henson (22% owned): Henson was considered a decent sleeper option this season after having a promising year last season, but he was unable to break into Jason Kidd's rotations in Milwaukee. However, with all of the injuries to the Bucks frontcourt, Henson has been getting a bit more opportunity and looks promising in his limited run. He has been back from injury for three games, and in 19 minutes per game, he is averaging 7.0 points with 4.7 rebounds and 4.0 blocks.

Cory Joseph (18% owned):Tony Parker has been dealing with a nagging hamstring injury for the last several weeks, and has been battling some injury or another all season. When he has been out, Joseph has produced more and more solid lines. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 12.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.3 steals on 56.8% FG and 87.5% FT in more than 34 minutes of action. Parker had an MRI on his hamstring come back negative, so he may be able to return in the somewhat near-term, but he's been ouchy all year. Plus, Gregg Popovich is notoriously cautious with his starters, so Joseph should still have solid opportunity. The one caveat is that Patty Mills, another backup point guard that has seen time in the past, recently returned from injury and could conceivably steal some minutes as well.

Jared Dudley (17% owned): Dudley is another Bucks forward that has taken advantage of an expanded role to produce fantasy-worthy numbers. In the last two weeks, he is averaging 14 points on 57.8% FG (unsustainable, but still impressive) and 84.6% FT while also notching 5.3 boards, 2.3 assists, 1.9 treys and 1.7 steals in 30 minutes per game.

Cole Aldrich (14% owned): The Knicks have started resting Amar'e Stoudemire more and more to try to preserve his surgically re-re-re-repaired knee, and in his absence, Aldrich has stepped up as a viable young big man that seems comfortable in the Triangle offense. Over the last couple of weeks, Aldrich has averaged 11.3 points on 62.5% FG, 72.7% FT, 8.0 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steals in 24 minutes a night. His last two games have been his best, as he scored 12 points with 19 rebounds and four steals against the Trail Blazers to follow-up an 18-point, 7-rebound, 2-block performance against the Kings.

Keeping up with the Professor
If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210. I also co-host the RotoWire Fantasy Basketball Podcast with Kyle McKeown once a week and co-host the Celtics Beat podcast on CLNS radio about once a month.