Shawn Marion

There's obviously nothing fun or exciting about drafting Marion in your fantasy basketball leagues at this point. Since his last season as a fantasy powerhouse in 2007-08, the 35-year-old has been playing at a slightly above average level for five-straight years and shows no sign of stopping. Consider, Marion has averaged between 14.3 and 10.6 points, 8.7 and 6.4 rebounds, and 1.4 and 0.9 steals in each season over that stretch. Decline can't really be pinpointed either, because none of his five-year lows in those three categories came last season. In fact, last season he shot 51 percent from the field (second best over that span) and blocked 0.7 shots per game (best average since 2009-10). If the Mavs were in tank mode, like so many other teams without a peak-level superstar, then we could predict the beginning of the end for Marion. But their moves in the offseason suggest that they are going to try to win as many games as they can, which means keeping their best individual defender, Marion, on the floor for close to 30 minutes per game. In addition to his strong field-goal percentage last season, he also averaged 12.1 points, grabbed 7.8 rebounds and notched 1.1 steals per game, without sinking any of the other nine categories. The one word of caution surrounding Marion is the fact that he has played fewer than 70 games in four of the last six seasons, so he's definitely no longer much of an ironman.

The 34-year-old Marion is entering his 14th NBA season, and though he’s certainly nowhere near his prime, he hasn’t slowed much in the past three seasons. He’s still good for the occasional double-double, averaging 10.6 points and 7.4 boards per game last season, but Marion also has shortcomings. He shot 29.4 percent from downtown last season, which was a dramatic improvement over any of his post-Phoenix seasons. Last season’s 44.6 percent shooting from the floor was his worst percentage since the 2003-04 season, which led to a slight drop in points per game (10.6, down from 12.5 points per game in 2010-11). However, he can still be counted on for about one steal per game. Regarded as one of the premier on-ball defenders at the three, Marion is relatively without competition at the three in Dallas, so he should once again see around 30 minutes per game and offer some value in deep leagues.

Marion started last year coming off the bench, but a season-ending injury to Caron Butler forced him back into the starting lineup. His defense and physics-defying shot eventually helped the Mavs win last year’s NBA title, but he’s not nearly the player he was for so many years with the Suns. Marion doesn’t shoot many three-pointers anymore, but provides most of his fantasy value through being efficient and consistent. Through 80 games played last season, he averaged 12.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 2.6 turnovers. With Caron Butler entering free agency and coming off right knee surgery, Marion could be asked to play about 30 minutes per night this season, enough to make him useful for his across-the-board contributions, but there’s not much upside here.

Statistically at least, Marion's first full season in Dallas failed to even replicate his disappointing 2008-09 campaign, which was split between Dallas and Toronto. Marion averaged just 12 points, 6.4 boards, 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks… and he made just three three-pointers all season. Obviously, that's a very far cry from the numbers he produced during his heyday with the Suns, when he was arguably the most valuable player in fantasy hoops. While there's some hope for a rebound, Dallas' roster is stacked against him. The Mavs are reportedly toying with the idea of bringing Marion off the bench this season, which could further undermine his numbers.

Marion is one of the most difficult players to gauge entering this season, as he finds himself at a career crossroads. Two seasons ago Marion was one of the surest bets in roto basketball, on a five-year run of averaging around 20 points, 10 boards, 4.5 combined steals/blocks/treys, excellent shooting percentages, few turnovers, 80 games played and a number one overall year-end ranking in almost every roto system. But he did this while playing in the Suns’ offense next to ultimate distributor Steve Nash; Marion was not nearly as effective in Miami or Toronto. The question is, was Marion’s drop-off due to age/loss of athleticism as he entered his 30s, or was it more that he missed playing with an elite point guard? We should find out this season, as Marion returns to another fast-paced offense in Dallas led by a great distributor in Jason Kidd. With Kidd running the show, Dirk Nowitzki as the offensive centerpiece and other scorers like Josh Howard and Jason Terry to take off the pressure, the 6-7 Marion could resume his role as an elite offensive “Garbage-Man”/defensive hustle player. But if the problem is really that Marion is slowing down, he’s unlikely to live up to his draft slot.

It’s disappointing when players can’t see how good they’ve got it. In Phoenix, Marion was free to freelance on offense, jack up three-pointers, slash to the basket, match up against opposition power forwards – there isn’t a four in the league Marion can’t out-quick – and receive passes from the incomparable Steve Nash. Somehow, this made him unhappy. So he bellyached his way into a trade that allowed him to share the floor with Mark Blount, Ricky Davis and Chris Quinn. Good thinking. This season, we’re expecting Miami as a team to rebound in a big way – Dwyane Wade is healthy, and the addition of Michael Beasley on the low block gives the Heat another big-time scoring threat, which should allow Marion to get back to what he does so well. But one word of caution – Marion’s shooting percentages have trended down when he’s been separated from Nash. His scoring and shooting probably won’t reach the same levels in Miami that they did in Phoenix.

Marion is the rare player whose fantasy value takes a slight dive when he plays at his natural position. His best fantasy stats have come in seasons when he’s spent a significant amount of time at power forward. With his quickness, strength and length, Marion is an impossible defensive assignment for nearly every four in the league, and playing closer to the basket allows him to flex more of his rebounding/shot blocking muscle. At the other forward position, he’s a top-10 player. At power forward, he’s in the mix for first overall pick. So how will Phoenix deploy Marion this year? The departure of Kurt Thomas makes Amare Stoudemire more-or-less a full-time center. The arrival of Grant Hill gives Phoenix an attractive reason to move Marion down low. While that might not be enough to put him back into the 20s in scoring, we do expect a return to double figures in boards, and continued excellence in the other categories – his five-year streak of at least 4.5 combined steals/blocks/3-pointers (and an average of at least one in each category) should continue.

Marion proved again last year that he doesn’t need to have a play run for him or be the focal point of the offense to put up top-tier fantasy numbers. With the absence of Amare Stoudemire last year, Marion averaged a career high 21.8 points per game, but Marion’s value goes far beyond scoring. With averages of 11.8 rebounds, 1.2 three, 2.0 steals, and 1.7 blocks, Marion contributes substantially in every category except FT% (80.9% but only 3.7 attempts per game) and assists (1.8 apg). With Stoudemire back in the mix this year and the emergence of Boris Diaw as an offensive threat, Marion will probably score a little less but will continue to be a jack of all trades worthy of a first-round pick.

Ho-hum. Another year in the office for the NBA's premier garbage man. The Matrix needs no plays run for him, but rather scores off of loose balls, starts fast breaks and flies down the wings in transition. To sustain such methods, he brings elite rebounding skills and the long, quick arms to create steals and blocks. An up-tempo offense and scoring from down low typically translate into a high field goal percentage for Marion, but he's also a dead eye from the line and cans threes. He has athleticism, a stellar track record and the proper system for his skills. Furthermore, he won't be hurt by the losses of Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson. Marion logs these numbers every year regardless of who's around him, and he rarely misses a game.

Marion will give Kirilenko a run for his money for the top spot at the small forward position. Much like Kirilenko, Marion will help fantasy owners in almost every category. Marion is an expert thief, has the ability to knock down the three and can rebound with the best of them at the three spot. The acquisition of Quentin Richardson won’t hurt Marion's playing time, though the Suns might move him to the four for stretches while Joe Johnson and Richardson are both on the court. Plus, with the acquisition of Steve Nash, Marion will get the ball in a better position to score and should see an increase in points per game. Marion should be a strong draft pick in the mid-to-late first round.

Marion is a dominating rebounder at both ends, despite being just 6-7. He can jump through the rafters and is a great catch-and-shoot player with surprising range and runs the court very well. He could easily average 20+ points, 10 rebounds, a couple steals, and a block a game if he stays healthy.