This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
Wondering if you should trust my advice? Check out my latest Trust Tracker blog post analyzing how my recommendations from last Thursday's games fared.TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz: This is more of a "Defense to Be Wary Of" than a "Defense to Avoid", but I can only write about avoiding the Spurs, Rockets, and Grizzlies so many times. The Jazz, on the other hand, are more of a fantasy afterthought. Yet DraftKings ranks the Jazz as the 8th, 11th, and 12th most challenging opponents for opposing small forwards, centers, and shooting guards, respectively. It's not that the Jazz are tough to score on – they allow some of the highest opponent field goal and three-point percentages in the league – but they allow very few rebounds, assists, blocks, and free throw attempts. In fact, Jazz opponents are dead last in free throw attempts, second to last in rebounds, and 6th to last in assists. While those strengths will do little to slow down a pure scorer like Lou Williams, they will make it much harder for players like Kyle Lowry (5.2 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 6.2 free throw attempts per game) and Jonas Valanciunas (8.6 rebounds, 1.3 blocks per game).
Offenses to Use
Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves: Don't let their four wins fool you: these Ricky-Rubio-and-Kevin-Martin-less Timberwolves are barely better than the 76ers. Two wins were with both Martin and Rubio, one was with Martin over a Knicks team on the second night of a back-to-back, and the last was a 120-119 squeaker over the lowly Lakers. In the six games since Martin got hurt, the Wolves are being outscored by 16.2 points per game – by far the worst in the league during that stretch. Not only are the Wolves ice-cold, but they can't defend. They are only better than the Lakers in opponent points per possession, and they sport the worst opponent three-point field goal percentage in the league – which is particularly relevant against the 76ers, who are among the league leaders in three-pointers attempted. Against the Wolves, who are incapable of guarding the perimeter, the 76ers could exceed 30 attempted threes – league average is approximately 22. It's not often I'll be able to feature the 76ers in this section, but I'm jumping at this opportunity.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: None
Second game of a back-to-back: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Mo Williams, MIN (vs PHI), PG, ($5,600): All Timberwolves' salary figures have been raised Wednesday, an unfortunate side effect of playing the struggling 76ers. Between the price hike and his rough outing against the Clippers Monday, many will shy away from Williams. Don't. The whole starting lineup was pulled early against the Clippers, making Williams' performance look far worse than it actually was. The Timberwolves are desperately afraid of becoming "the team the 76ers beat", and the Wolves need Williams running to point to stay competitive.
Other suggestions: Greivis Vasquez, TOR (at UTA), PG, ($4,300)
Shooting Guard
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DET (at BOS), SG, ($4,400): There is no shooting guard cheaper than Caldwell-Pope that I trust Wednesday. Sure, that's not quite a ringing endorsement, but it's a meaningful designation nonetheless. KCP plays a ton of minutes every night, and he has been particularly effective over his last three games. If you can afford it, you're probably better off springing for Kyle Korver, but KCP is good enough if your heart is set on pricier options elsewhere.
Other suggestions: Kyle Korver, ATL (at MIA), SG, ($5,100); Jimmy Butler, CHI (at CHA), SG, ($7,300)
Small Forward
Josh Smith, DET (at BOS), SF, ($7,500): Smith has been solid over his past six games, and he's been excellent over his past two. Unless he totally flops Wednesday, his price is about to shoot up. But before that happens, we get one more opportunity to take advantage of J Smoove, when he takes on a struggling Celtics that is particularly favorable for opposing forwards.
Other suggestions: Jabari Parker, MIL (vs DAL), SF, ($5,300)
Power Forward
Pau Gasol, CHI (at CHA), PF, ($8,200): For some reason, DraftKings continuously under charges for the older Gasol. By my calculations, among 178 eligible players, Gasol is the most consistently profitable on DraftKings, and he has the 5th highest average profit per night. On top of that, the Hornets are a favorable fantasy opponent for a big man, and Gasol's Wednesday price was set before Tuesday's 53.5 fantasy point explosion.
Other suggestions: Nikola Mirotic, CHI (at CHA), PF, ($5,600)
Center
Marc Gasol, MEM (at HOU), C, ($9,100):Dwight Howard (knee) is doubtful Wednesday, which means Gasol will match up against a collection of backup forwards playing out of position. One of the best centers in the league, in the possibly the best season of his career, guarded by out-of-position backups. Any further analysis can only take away from an argument that compelling.
Kyle O'Quinn, ORL (at LAC), PG, ($3,300): If Nikola Vucevic (back) misses a second game in a row Wednesday, O'Quinn is a must-start. With Vucevic out Tuesday, O'Quinn started and totaled 21 points, 11 rebounds, one assist, two steals, and a block for 42.25 fantasy points. Even if Vucevic is active, O'Quinn is still a solid play, averaging an impressive 1.3 fantasy points per minute off the bench before Tuesday's game. Only three players in action Tuesday are producing at a higher rate: James Harden, Marc Gasol, and Tim Duncan.
INJURY REPORT
Out
Marcus Smart (ankle)
Andrei Kirilenko (personal)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (foot)
Jeff Taylor (suspension)
Jodie Meeks (back)
Patrick Beverley (hamstring)
Terrence Jones (leg)
Isaiah Canaan (ankle)
Steve Nash (back)
Julius Randle (leg)
Xavier Henry (Achilles)
Ryan Kelly (Hamstring)
Damien Inglis (foot)
Johnny O'Bryant (knee)
Kevin Martin (wrist)
Nikola Pekovic (wrist)
Ricky Rubio (ankle)
Ronny Turiaf (hip)
John Henson (foot)
Aaron Gordon (foot)
Devyn Marble (shoulder)
Joel Embiid (foot)
Jason Richardson (foot)
Tony Wroten (knee)
Patty Mills (shoulder)
Martell Webster (back)
Alexey Shved (hip)
Game-Time Decision
Markel Brown (hip) is a game-time decision.
Marvin Williams (shoulder) is questionable, and coach Steve Clifford doubts Williams will play.
Gary Neal (shoulder) is questionable.
Taj Gibson (ankle) is unlikely to play Wednesday.
Doug McDermott (knee) is day-to-day after missing Tuesday's game.
Raymond Felton (ankle) is day-to-day.
Dwight Howard (knee) is doubtful.
Chris Douglas-Roberts (Achilles) is questionable.
Ersan Ilyasova (face) is doubtful.
Nikola Vucevic (back) is day-to-day after missing Tuesday's game.
Nerlens Noel (hip) is day-to-day.
Tim Duncan (rest) is likely to play Wednesday.
Tony Parker (ribs) is probable.
Tiago Splitter (calf) is a game-time decision.
Nene Hilario (foot) is day-to-day.
Jeremy Evans (ankle) is a game-time decision.
Derrick Favors (illness) is a game-time decision.
